Hurricane Helene

[libertybele]

Well models are showing 3 days of Rain for us, I woke up to the first thunder sounds I have heard in weeks this morning... and it is starting to pour now. Where this thing takes a U-turn inland is gonna be interesting, cause it can dump a lot of rain in backing up.

We'll be getting rain as well and with the entire coast under a tropical storm warning it is a concern as to where all this rain and water is going to go. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Local news is saying as of this morning all of this coast of FL IS under a tropical storm and storm surge warning especially along the coast. Ft. Myers Beach is obviously a coastal area and they also may be locally issuing their own warnings and preparing.

https://winknews.com/2024/09/25/how-southwest-florida-is-preparing-for-tropical-storm-helene/

FMB got absolutely blasted during the last hurricane, my parents were on the island and the footage they sent me was extremely alarming, they were in a high rise and there was an almost 20 foot storm surge! I'm kind of hoping they don't "ride this one out too", but the aftermath was extremely trying for them. Dad is in good health, but my mom has had open heart surgery and stuff so it's concerning. They had no radio, no way to contact authorities once their batteries went out and the cell towers went down and the elevator was OOS for 6 months or something crazy like that, they were on the fourth floor.

It was not a fun time for them.

[catfish1957]

Our local weather is seeing what you are seeing; a slightly westward shift but still directly impacting the Big Bend area.  They don't believe that, that will change right now.  Our impact from the storm will still be storm surge and tropical storm winds. 

Wow...  I saw something that i have never seen today in watching Hurricanes 50 years.   If you look at the exact vis sat, you will see over 50 patterned finger like off shoot cloud structures  jutting off the entire western, and SW, perimeter of the storm.  I gotta capture this one for posterity.  Almost like a meterological sunflower.  Gotta let me geek out on this one..



Okay, enough of the oogling over the met phenomenon.  Helene's guidance track has shifted maybe 30-40 miles to the west since last night's adviosry.  Still expecting a low Cat 3 storm, with cone zeroing into an area from Panama City, to Cedar Key.  Helene looks larger right now than that high end Tropical Storm that the NHC is advising.  (70 mph).  It is rapidly strengthening right now, and the eastern side of the storm is very impressive.  If this trend holds, I expect to see massive rainfall numbers around the entire west coast of FL, if Helene stays the present course, or trends a little more eastern.

In any case, I'd say the entire Panhandle, and west coast of FL, needs to be rushing toward storm prep.   I am still thinking this thing might have a continued trending path expectation westward.  Especially if the storm spends any time with a chunk of its convection over the Yucatan Penn.

[catfish1957]

@jmyrlefuller

Looks like this is a sure thing as far as a likely Major Hurricane US hit.   Want to establish Helene's own thread at this point to alert Briefers?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Looks like it's going to hit the panhandle now...

[Wingnut]

Helene has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph.
now located about 500 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Florida
10am est.

Still to early for me to think about bugging out.

[catfish1957]

Feeder bands now being noticed from Pensacola to Nicaragua....

This is going to end up being a large storm in size. Which really makes the flooding and storm surge a bigger threat.

[catfish1957]

Helene has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph.
now located about 500 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Florida
10am est.

Still to early for me to think about bugging out.

10AM advisory, as I expected shifted just slightly (abt. 10 miles) westward, and the center line in the cone is just east of Apalachicola.
The northern turn has occured as advertised, but I am also seeing the trough/front slowing down a tad more than expected.  That might continue to trend the storm westward, if only slightly.

Based on that factoid, I am gussing the path creeps a tiny more westward, though right now the cone is from Panama City to about Horshoe Beach.  The west coast of FL is not out of the woods, especially if Helene continues to grow in size (geographically) and strength. Note Hurricane Warnings have been posted as far east as Tampa. But if I was you, I'd feel just a tiny bit better at this point.

[Wingnut]

10AM advisory, as I expected shifted just slightly (abt. 10 miles) westward, and the center line in the cone is just east of Apalachicola.
The northern turn has occured as advertised, but I am also seeing the trough/front slowing down a tad more than expected.  That might continue to trend the storm westward, if only slightly.

Based on that factoid, I am gussing the path creeps a tiny more westward, though right now the cone is from Panama City to about Horshoe Beach.  The west coast of FL is not out of the woods, especially if Helene continues to grow in size (geographically) and strength. Note Hurricane Warnings have been posted as far east as Tampa. But if I was you, I'd feel just a tiny bit better at this point.

Survived Michael with no damage. If it stays to the east of Apalachicola I won't even put the kevlar shields over the windows.  They are rated to 140 MPH.   Of course that does not include projustiles!  LOL

[Gefn]

Is Miami in the crosshairs ?

[mountaineer]

Is Miami in the crosshairs ?

Doesn't look like it. This one will hit the Gulf Coast.

[cato potatoe]

For safety, depopulation of parts of Florida must be considered.

You can get clobbered pretty much anywhere in the state.  Tallahassee seems to be in the crosshairs this time.

[libertybele]

Survived Michael with no damage. If it stays to the east of Apalachicola I won't even put the kevlar shields over the windows.  They are rated to 140 MPH.   Of course that does not include projustiles!  LOL

@Wingnut Each hurricane is different. 

As you are very well aware, wind is one thing and water is quite another. They are predicting storm surge north of Tampa Bay 8'+ -- that's pretty significant....more northward .....

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft

[Wingnut]

@Wingnut Each hurricane is different. 

As you are very well aware, wind is one thing and water is quite another. They are predicting storm surge north of Tampa Bay 8'+ -- that's pretty significant....more northward .....

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft

You leave for the flooding. Hunker down for the blowing.

[catfish1957]

18' surge?

I hope evacuations are near complete, because that level of dangerous surge can take place while the storm is still a hundred miles offshore.

[catfish1957]

Tropical Storm watch flags hoisted all the way up to the North Carolina- Virgina border.

Not surprised, even as a min.Cat 1, the storm is 500 miles in diameter.  No telling how large it might be by the time of landfall.  Kind of reminds me of Ike in that regard. 

[libertybele]

Is Miami in the crosshairs ?

As far as I can tell, no, as Miami is on the other coast of FL.

[libertybele]

18' surge?

I hope evacuations are near complete, because that level of dangerous surge can take place while the storm is still a hundred miles offshore.

I'm praying that everyone is able to get out of harm's way as 18' storm surge is absolutely catastrophic and this hurricane is massive in size.  They are still predicting that it will make landfall as a Cat. 3, but it is the storm surge that is very worrisome.

[Wingnut]

18' surge?

IKR?  This would be like a one and a million event.   But you have to scare people to death for clicks.

[libertybele]

IKR?  This would be like a one and a million event.   But you have to scare people to death for clicks.

Wingnut, all I can tell you is that we were not warned early enough. Ft. Myers Beach saw 15' storm surge during Ian and people died. Perhaps it was a one in a million event, but it happened. 

Yes, traffic is a hassle, finding a place to escape to is a hassle and no one wants to leave the comfort of their own home,  but 12-18' storm surge is pretty darn catastrophic.

[catfish1957]

IKR?  This would be like a one and a million event.   But you have to scare people to death for clicks.

If this is correct, this one is up there with the legends. (if correct). Let's not forget that terrain has a lot of bearing.  Audrey back in '57 was only 12 foot, but caused deadly innudation up to 25 miles inland.  And if you've seen the coastal plane in SE Texas and SW Louisiana, it is incredibly flat.

Camille- 25 foot
Opal 24 foot
Hugo- 20 foot
Galveston (1900)- 15 foot
Katrina- 14 foot (take in account NOLA at -5) <19>

[Cyber Liberty]

You leave for the flooding. Hunker down for the blowing.

That is my understanding.  Face the wind, flee the water.

[catfish1957]

That is my understanding.  Face the wind, flee the water.

Good guidance for a generally Cat 1 or 2 storm.

3, 4, or 5?  Get the hell out, and this advice comes from experience.

[Cyber Liberty]

Good guidance for a generally Cat 1 or 2 storm.

3, 4, or 5?  Get the hell out, and this advice comes from experience.

Yeah, those are Major Hurricanes (I was yesterday years old when I found out what a "Major" is). 


"Oh, sure you can personally stand up to 125 MPH winds, but can you stand up to a Buick being flung by 125 MPH winds?"  (Borrowed from Ron White)

[libertybele]

Good guidance for a generally Cat 1 or 2 storm.

3, 4, or 5?  Get the hell out, and this advice comes from experience.

Each hurricane and storm is different though and everyone needs to make that decision whether to hunker down or leave.  When she passes us she'll only be 150 miles or so off shore with about 3-5' of storm surge, so it does concern me.  By the time she makes landfall much further north of us the storm surge will be catastrophic.  IMHO time to leave that area.