Author Topic: Hurricane Helene  (Read 81340 times)

0 Members and 13 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Hurricane Helene
« on: September 22, 2024, 09:59:29 am »
Looks like the eastern Gulf of Mexico is primed for another storm late in the week.

GFS has a Low end Cat 3 (961Mb) approaching the Western FL Coast. this Thursday.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 08:36:48 am by catfish1957 »
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2024, 11:02:01 pm »
Yikes!!!..

Latest GFS now at bout a 942Mb storm aiming at Panama Beach-ish area.

That'd be a Cat 4.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline cato potatoe

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,721
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2024, 12:34:06 am »
Yeah the GFS is trending east as well, along with a couple of other models.  No bueno.  We'll have to see where the storm initializes, as a subtle change will make a big difference. 

Offline Wingnut

  • The problem with everything is they try and make it better without realizing the old way is fine.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22,122
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2024, 04:41:39 am »
Yikes!!!..

Latest GFS now at bout a 942Mb storm aiming at Panama Beach-ish area.

That'd be a Cat 4.




Swell.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 04:53:30 am by Wingnut »
You don’t become cooler with age but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way to actually be cool.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2024, 08:51:28 am »
Yeah the GFS is trending east as well, along with a couple of other models.  No bueno.  We'll have to see where the storm initializes, as a subtle change will make a big difference.

There's a significant amount of ebbing and flowing blobs of precipitation hovering around the 18N 85W right now. (200 miles SW of Jamaica).  That's not too far from the GFS run.  One thing I noticed interesting in the last run, was the robust Low/High differential upcoming in the N. USA (34Mb). That's almost winter like, so I am guessing there will be significant potential eastward shifting of Cone, especially if those systems dig far south. 

With that, I wouldn't rule out the Tampa ,and entire western coast of FL.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Cyber Liberty

  • Coffee! Donuts! Kittens!
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 62,359
  • Gender: Male
  • 🌵🌵🌵
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2024, 10:11:50 am »



Swell.

Looks like this one is heading your way....  :0001:
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline Wingnut

  • The problem with everything is they try and make it better without realizing the old way is fine.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22,122
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2024, 10:36:05 am »
Looks like this one is heading your way....  :0001:

Hoping it gets pushed east to the low density population area of the Big Bend.
You don’t become cooler with age but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way to actually be cool.

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2024, 04:53:50 pm »
This one is a monster in size and local forecasters have stated that it could push more eastward ...waiting to see tomorrow how far east they think she'll go -- we could be in for a wild ride with this one.  She'll be quicker than Ian and won't linger, but likely more storm surge (sigh).  The cones show this one going all the way up into GA -- so for those on the west side -- best to cross the alley and go over to the other coast.  (That's going to be a major traffic jam just waiting to happen). 

Hurricane Helene forecast to form and rapidly intensify before slamming into Florida

An area of thunderstorms in the Caribbean is expected to develop into Hurricane Helene and rapidly intensify over the exceptionally warm Gulf of Mexico before slamming into the United States’ Gulf Coast later this week, potentially as a major hurricane.

The storm has not formed yet but is expected to soon, so the National Hurricane Center has dubbed it Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to warn of its imminent threat.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of Mexico and Cuba. Similar alerts will be issued for the US in the coming days, with a potential landfall in Florida expected perhaps as soon Thursday night.

Florida wasted no time getting preparations underway. Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm for 41 the state’s 67 counties, according to a Monday press release. The move helps to expedite preparations and coordination between the state and local governments.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is a disorganized mass of showers and thunderstorms churning in the far western Caribbean Sea. This stormy weather will drop potentially flooding rainfall over portions of Central America, Mexico, Cuba and Jamaica as it tries to organize into a tropical system.

While its exact track and strength could change, Helene will track north over the extremely warm waters into the Gulf of Mexico which could supercharge it on its collision course with the US Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Helene to rapidly intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane over a record-warm Gulf of Mexico – a feat becoming more likely as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

It could strengthen more than forecast, and the NHC warns there is a chance for a Category 3 major hurricane.

Strong, potentially damaging winds and storm surge are likely near where the system ultimately comes ashore. The system will also churn up seas in the Gulf and could produce rough surf and dangerous rip currents for much of the basin, especially later this week...................

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/weather/helene-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-climate/index.html


« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 05:04:31 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2024, 04:57:54 pm »
Hoping it gets pushed east to the low density population area of the Big Bend.
Right now if it stays the course it looks like it will just graze the Palm Coast (Flagler County). No worries

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153941.shtml?gm_track#contents
« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 05:04:18 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2024, 05:02:31 pm »
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday issued a state of emergency for 41 counties ahead of tropical weather that is likely later this week.

The counties are: Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington.

https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2024/09/23/state-of-emergency-issued-for-41-florida-counties-ahead-of-storm

Offline 240B

  • Lord of all things Orange!
  • TBR Advisory Committee
  • ***
  • Posts: 20,980
  • I refuse to be obstinate!
    • I try my best ...
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2024, 06:17:01 pm »
Major hurricane could hit Florida this week. How will the system affect Brevard?

Florida Today
Michelle Spitzer
Sept 23, 2024

Enjoy a dry day Tuesday, but get your umbrella handy Wednesday and keep it close through the weekend.

A system is brewing in the tropics and is expected to quickly develop into a tropical storm in the next day or two. While it’s on the other side of the state, Brevard County is still expected to feel the effects of what's likely to become Hurricane Helene.

“Locally we’ll have heavy rainfall, high, gusty winds, especially in rain squalls and tornadoes are favorable because we will be on the east side of the system,” said Tim Sedlock, meteorologist with the National Weather Center in Melbourne. “As we get into Thursday, Thursday night, that would be the worst of the impact.”

(more)
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/2024/09/23/developing-storm-might-be-hurricane-mean-brevard-gulf-helene/75346080007/
« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 08:59:18 am by mystery-ak »
You cannot "COEXIST" with people who want to kill you.
If they kill their own with no conscience, there is nothing to stop them from killing you.
Rational fear and anger at vicious murderous Islamic terrorists is the same as irrational antisemitism, according to the Leftists

Offline mountaineer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 62,379
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2024, 07:00:44 pm »
"The spirit of Kukluxism will not die out so long as the Democrat party exists to sympathize with that spirit."
-- Gerrit Smith

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2024, 09:14:00 pm »
Most recent batch of weather models tells a significantly different story with Gulf of Mexico tropical system.  That's why we need to be careful with tropical storms that have not yet fully developed. 

09L (Helene) gets hung up over land of Yucatan peninsula and fails to intensify rapidly through late Wednesday.  Instead of Cat 5 -- it's maybe a TS at +66 hours.  Let's hope this trend continues!



https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1838357394134368471
« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 09:17:07 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 09:21:53 pm by libertybele »

Offline Cyber Liberty

  • Coffee! Donuts! Kittens!
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 62,359
  • Gender: Male
  • 🌵🌵🌵
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2024, 11:29:03 am »
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Helene to rapidly intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane over a record-warm Gulf of Mexico – a feat becoming more likely as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

The Communist News Network just can't help themselves....
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2024, 01:29:58 pm »
Helene has been named.  We finally have a well defined point of intialization to wrap some decent model data around. 

The CoC is tad west of where I thought it would be, and early path through the western side of the Yucatan Channel.  The data point one of this storm history is why the initial NHC has the bullseye on Tallahassee rather than Tampa, as I had earlier guessed.  I am impressed (surprised) of the narrow cone.  The model data is incredibly tight with a window this long.



OTOH, I do see this as optimistic, since the expected "right turn" at 87W is "iffy", depending on how quickly and deeply the trough / front approaching the NW GOM is.  If it slows down, I could see NOLA to Appalachicola in play.  If it speeds up, then Tampa and the entire western FL Gulf Coast is the cone.

I am secondly a tad surprised of the rapid intensification forecast, considering that there is some decent sheer 200 mi wide stretching from SW Florida to the Yucatan Pennsula.  And still there is a very favorable environment once the storm moves north of this sheer area.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline cato potatoe

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,721
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2024, 02:08:28 pm »
There is a weird little swirl moving SW of main convection, which Dr. Cowan thinks is one of several mesovortices rotating around a center ... the others being hidden underneath the dense overcast to the NE.  He still thinks Helene will slide through the Yucatan Channel, instead of spinning down over the Yucatan, and then quickly get shunted NE by the low over Memphis.  I guess we find out soon enough.

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2024, 03:14:49 pm »
Helene has been named.  We finally have a well defined point of intialization to wrap some decent model data around. 

The CoC is tad west of where I thought it would be, and early path through the western side of the Yucatan Channel.  The data point one of this storm history is why the initial NHC has the bullseye on Tallahassee rather than Tampa, as I had earlier guessed.  I am impressed (surprised) of the narrow cone.  The model data is incredibly tight with a window this long.



OTOH, I do see this as optimistic, since the expected "right turn" at 87W is "iffy", depending on how quickly and deeply the trough / front approaching the NW GOM is.  If it slows down, I could see NOLA to Appalachicola in play.  If it speeds up, then Tampa and the entire western FL Gulf Coast is the cone.

I am secondly a tad surprised of the rapid intensification forecast, considering that there is some decent sheer 200 mi wide stretching from SW Florida to the Yucatan Pennsula.  And still there is a very favorable environment once the storm moves north of this sheer area.

Locally we are already receiving tropical storm and storm surge watches.  They still are showing spaghetti models with an intensity of a Cat. 3 aiming for Tampa, a little different than what you are showing, but it's been shifting back and forth now for awhile. They are calling it the 'windshield wiper affect'.

So far we have been told we can expect 4-6" of rain and storm surge of 3-5' and storm surge is predicted to affect us inland -- much like Debby not too long ago.

Evacuations orders have already started for those a little north of us. 

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2024, 12:26:08 am »
???

Helene is supposed to be making it's nortward right turn now in the Yucatan Channel, but I still not only see a strong westward vector of core storm, but also am seeing the advanced convection doint the same.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me on the Vis Sat loops, it looks likw Helene may be spending some time over the Yucatan.

Why is that important?  If this storm has any level of delay in that turn, we are going to see some westward shift. the destination cone.  The models aren't reading that yet, and there may be something I am missing,  but I am pretty sure the foci points are west of NHC guidance.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Gefn

  • "And though she be but little she is fierce"-Shakespeare
  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 15,963
  • Gender: Female
  • Quos Deus Vult Perdere Prius Dementat
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2024, 08:07:45 am »
Tropical Storm Helene live updates: 'Life-threatening' storm surge to hit Florida's west coast in next 36 hours



Quote


The University of South Florida ia taking no chances as the state braces for the impact of Tropical Storm Helene tomorrow, likely as a hurricane.

The college has canceled all classes through Monday and closed access to its campuses until at least Friday.

"The University of South Florida continues to monitor Tropical Storm Helene. The safety of our students, faculty and staff is our highest priority as we track the storm and the possible impacts to the Tampa Bay region," the college said in a statement this morning.

Florida is set to be hit hard by Tropical Storm Helene, forecasters said today, ahead of its likely arrival as a hurricane late tomorrow.






https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/live-blog/storm-helene-live-updates-rcna172604
G-d bless America. G-d bless us all                                 

Adopt a puppy or kitty from your local shelter
Or an older dog or cat. They're true love❤️

Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

  • Technical
  • *****
  • Posts: 13,237
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2024, 08:16:36 am »
My parents are back on Fort Myer's beach condo, rather close to libertybele actually. I talked to them about this and they're worried.

Offline rustynail

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4,942
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2024, 09:19:37 am »
For safety, depopulation of parts of Florida must be considered.

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2024, 09:24:49 am »
???

Helene is supposed to be making it's nortward right turn now in the Yucatan Channel, but I still not only see a strong westward vector of core storm, but also am seeing the advanced convection doint the same.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me on the Vis Sat loops, it looks likw Helene may be spending some time over the Yucatan.

Why is that important?  If this storm has any level of delay in that turn, we are going to see some westward shift. the destination cone.  The models aren't reading that yet, and there may be something I am missing,  but I am pretty sure the foci points are west of NHC guidance.

Our local weather is seeing what you are seeing; a slightly westward shift but still directly impacting the Big Bend area.  They don't believe that, that will change right now.  Our impact from the storm will still be storm surge and tropical storm winds.

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2024, 10:00:16 am »
My parents are back on Fort Myer's beach condo, rather close to libertybele actually. I talked to them about this and they're worried.

Local news is saying as of this morning all of this coast of FL IS under a tropical storm and storm surge warning especially along the coast. Ft. Myers Beach is obviously a coastal area and they also may be locally issuing their own warnings and preparing.

https://winknews.com/2024/09/25/how-southwest-florida-is-preparing-for-tropical-storm-helene/



Offline Sighlass

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5,797
  • Didn't vote for McCain Dole Romney Trump !
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2024, 10:04:22 am »
Well models are showing 3 days of Rain for us, I woke up to the first thunder sounds I have heard in weeks this morning... and it is starting to pour now. Where this thing takes a U-turn inland is gonna be interesting, cause it can dump a lot of rain in backing up.
Exodus 18:21 Furthermore, you shall select out of all the people able men who fear God, men of truth, those who hate dishonest gain; and you shall place these over them as leaders over ....

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #25 on: September 25, 2024, 10:11:27 am »
Well models are showing 3 days of Rain for us, I woke up to the first thunder sounds I have heard in weeks this morning... and it is starting to pour now. Where this thing takes a U-turn inland is gonna be interesting, cause it can dump a lot of rain in backing up.

We'll be getting rain as well and with the entire coast under a tropical storm warning it is a concern as to where all this rain and water is going to go. 

Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

  • Technical
  • *****
  • Posts: 13,237
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #26 on: September 25, 2024, 10:21:32 am »
Local news is saying as of this morning all of this coast of FL IS under a tropical storm and storm surge warning especially along the coast. Ft. Myers Beach is obviously a coastal area and they also may be locally issuing their own warnings and preparing.

https://winknews.com/2024/09/25/how-southwest-florida-is-preparing-for-tropical-storm-helene/

FMB got absolutely blasted during the last hurricane, my parents were on the island and the footage they sent me was extremely alarming, they were in a high rise and there was an almost 20 foot storm surge! I'm kind of hoping they don't "ride this one out too", but the aftermath was extremely trying for them. Dad is in good health, but my mom has had open heart surgery and stuff so it's concerning. They had no radio, no way to contact authorities once their batteries went out and the cell towers went down and the elevator was OOS for 6 months or something crazy like that, they were on the fourth floor.

It was not a fun time for them.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 10:22:46 am by Weird Tolkienish Figure »

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #27 on: September 25, 2024, 10:34:20 am »
Our local weather is seeing what you are seeing; a slightly westward shift but still directly impacting the Big Bend area.  They don't believe that, that will change right now.  Our impact from the storm will still be storm surge and tropical storm winds. 

Wow...  I saw something that i have never seen today in watching Hurricanes 50 years.   If you look at the exact vis sat, you will see over 50 patterned finger like off shoot cloud structures  jutting off the entire western, and SW, perimeter of the storm.  I gotta capture this one for posterity.  Almost like a meterological sunflower.  Gotta let me geek out on this one..



Okay, enough of the oogling over the met phenomenon.  Helene's guidance track has shifted maybe 30-40 miles to the west since last night's adviosry.  Still expecting a low Cat 3 storm, with cone zeroing into an area from Panama City, to Cedar Key.  Helene looks larger right now than that high end Tropical Storm that the NHC is advising.  (70 mph).  It is rapidly strengthening right now, and the eastern side of the storm is very impressive.  If this trend holds, I expect to see massive rainfall numbers around the entire west coast of FL, if Helene stays the present course, or trends a little more eastern.

In any case, I'd say the entire Panhandle, and west coast of FL, needs to be rushing toward storm prep.   I am still thinking this thing might have a continued trending path expectation westward.  Especially if the storm spends any time with a chunk of its convection over the Yucatan Penn.



« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 10:41:33 am by catfish1957 »
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #28 on: September 25, 2024, 10:39:22 am »
@jmyrlefuller

Looks like this is a sure thing as far as a likely Major Hurricane US hit.   Want to establish Helene's own thread at this point to alert Briefers?
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

  • Technical
  • *****
  • Posts: 13,237
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2024, 10:41:16 am »
Looks like it's going to hit the panhandle now...

Offline Wingnut

  • The problem with everything is they try and make it better without realizing the old way is fine.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22,122
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2024, 11:52:02 am »
Helene has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph.
now located about 500 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Florida
10am est.

Still to early for me to think about bugging out.
You don’t become cooler with age but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way to actually be cool.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2024, 11:59:43 am »
Feeder bands now being noticed from Pensacola to Nicaragua....

This is going to end up being a large storm in size. Which really makes the flooding and storm surge a bigger threat.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2024, 12:14:00 pm »
Helene has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph.
now located about 500 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Florida
10am est.

Still to early for me to think about bugging out.

10AM advisory, as I expected shifted just slightly (abt. 10 miles) westward, and the center line in the cone is just east of Apalachicola.
The northern turn has occured as advertised, but I am also seeing the trough/front slowing down a tad more than expected.  That might continue to trend the storm westward, if only slightly.

Based on that factoid, I am gussing the path creeps a tiny more westward, though right now the cone is from Panama City to about Horshoe Beach.  The west coast of FL is not out of the woods, especially if Helene continues to grow in size (geographically) and strength. Note Hurricane Warnings have been posted as far east as Tampa. But if I was you, I'd feel just a tiny bit better at this point.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 12:15:42 pm by catfish1957 »
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Wingnut

  • The problem with everything is they try and make it better without realizing the old way is fine.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22,122
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2024, 12:25:57 pm »
10AM advisory, as I expected shifted just slightly (abt. 10 miles) westward, and the center line in the cone is just east of Apalachicola.
The northern turn has occured as advertised, but I am also seeing the trough/front slowing down a tad more than expected.  That might continue to trend the storm westward, if only slightly.

Based on that factoid, I am gussing the path creeps a tiny more westward, though right now the cone is from Panama City to about Horshoe Beach.  The west coast of FL is not out of the woods, especially if Helene continues to grow in size (geographically) and strength. Note Hurricane Warnings have been posted as far east as Tampa. But if I was you, I'd feel just a tiny bit better at this point.

Survived Michael with no damage. If it stays to the east of Apalachicola I won't even put the kevlar shields over the windows.  They are rated to 140 MPH.   Of course that does not include projustiles!  LOL
You don’t become cooler with age but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way to actually be cool.

Offline Gefn

  • "And though she be but little she is fierce"-Shakespeare
  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 15,963
  • Gender: Female
  • Quos Deus Vult Perdere Prius Dementat
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #34 on: September 25, 2024, 01:20:40 pm »
Is Miami in the crosshairs ?
G-d bless America. G-d bless us all                                 

Adopt a puppy or kitty from your local shelter
Or an older dog or cat. They're true love❤️

Offline mountaineer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 62,379
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #35 on: September 25, 2024, 01:23:16 pm »
Is Miami in the crosshairs ?
Doesn't look like it. This one will hit the Gulf Coast.
"The spirit of Kukluxism will not die out so long as the Democrat party exists to sympathize with that spirit."
-- Gerrit Smith

Offline cato potatoe

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,721
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #36 on: September 25, 2024, 01:34:31 pm »
For safety, depopulation of parts of Florida must be considered.

You can get clobbered pretty much anywhere in the state.  Tallahassee seems to be in the crosshairs this time.

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #37 on: September 25, 2024, 03:24:08 pm »
Survived Michael with no damage. If it stays to the east of Apalachicola I won't even put the kevlar shields over the windows.  They are rated to 140 MPH.   Of course that does not include projustiles!  LOL

@Wingnut Each hurricane is different. 

As you are very well aware, wind is one thing and water is quite another. They are predicting storm surge north of Tampa Bay 8'+ -- that's pretty significant....more northward .....

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft

Offline Wingnut

  • The problem with everything is they try and make it better without realizing the old way is fine.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22,122
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #38 on: September 25, 2024, 04:18:58 pm »
@Wingnut Each hurricane is different. 

As you are very well aware, wind is one thing and water is quite another. They are predicting storm surge north of Tampa Bay 8'+ -- that's pretty significant....more northward .....

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft

You leave for the flooding. Hunker down for the blowing.
You don’t become cooler with age but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way to actually be cool.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #39 on: September 25, 2024, 04:20:56 pm »
18' surge?

I hope evacuations are near complete, because that level of dangerous surge can take place while the storm is still a hundred miles offshore.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2024, 04:48:39 pm »
Tropical Storm watch flags hoisted all the way up to the North Carolina- Virgina border.

Not surprised, even as a min.Cat 1, the storm is 500 miles in diameter.  No telling how large it might be by the time of landfall.  Kind of reminds me of Ike in that regard. 
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2024, 04:55:36 pm »
Is Miami in the crosshairs ?

As far as I can tell, no, as Miami is on the other coast of FL.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 05:12:42 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2024, 05:12:18 pm »
18' surge?

I hope evacuations are near complete, because that level of dangerous surge can take place while the storm is still a hundred miles offshore.

I'm praying that everyone is able to get out of harm's way as 18' storm surge is absolutely catastrophic and this hurricane is massive in size.  They are still predicting that it will make landfall as a Cat. 3, but it is the storm surge that is very worrisome.

Offline Wingnut

  • The problem with everything is they try and make it better without realizing the old way is fine.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22,122
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #43 on: September 25, 2024, 05:19:23 pm »
18' surge?



IKR?  This would be like a one and a million event.   But you have to scare people to death for clicks.
You don’t become cooler with age but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way to actually be cool.

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #44 on: September 25, 2024, 05:27:54 pm »
IKR?  This would be like a one and a million event.   But you have to scare people to death for clicks.

Wingnut, all I can tell you is that we were not warned early enough. Ft. Myers Beach saw 15' storm surge during Ian and people died. Perhaps it was a one in a million event, but it happened. 

Yes, traffic is a hassle, finding a place to escape to is a hassle and no one wants to leave the comfort of their own home,  but 12-18' storm surge is pretty darn catastrophic.

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #45 on: September 25, 2024, 05:39:34 pm »
IKR?  This would be like a one and a million event.   But you have to scare people to death for clicks.

If this is correct, this one is up there with the legends. (if correct). Let's not forget that terrain has a lot of bearing.  Audrey back in '57 was only 12 foot, but caused deadly innudation up to 25 miles inland.  And if you've seen the coastal plane in SE Texas and SW Louisiana, it is incredibly flat.

Camille- 25 foot
Opal 24 foot
Hugo- 20 foot
Galveston (1900)- 15 foot
Katrina- 14 foot (take in account NOLA at -5) <19>
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Cyber Liberty

  • Coffee! Donuts! Kittens!
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 62,359
  • Gender: Male
  • 🌵🌵🌵
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #46 on: September 25, 2024, 05:51:41 pm »
You leave for the flooding. Hunker down for the blowing.

That is my understanding.  Face the wind, flee the water.
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline catfish1957

  • The Conservative Carp Rapscallion of Brieferville
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 25,399
  • Gender: Male
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #47 on: September 25, 2024, 05:53:36 pm »
That is my understanding.  Face the wind, flee the water.

Good guidance for a generally Cat 1 or 2 storm.

3, 4, or 5?  Get the hell out, and this advice comes from experience.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Cyber Liberty

  • Coffee! Donuts! Kittens!
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 62,359
  • Gender: Male
  • 🌵🌵🌵
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #48 on: September 25, 2024, 05:58:23 pm »
Good guidance for a generally Cat 1 or 2 storm.

3, 4, or 5?  Get the hell out, and this advice comes from experience.

Yeah, those are Major Hurricanes (I was yesterday years old when I found out what a "Major" is). 


"Oh, sure you can personally stand up to 125 MPH winds, but can you stand up to a Buick being flung by 125 MPH winds?"  (Borrowed from Ron White)
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline libertybele

  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 65,235
  • Gender: Female
Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #49 on: September 25, 2024, 06:05:43 pm »
Good guidance for a generally Cat 1 or 2 storm.

3, 4, or 5?  Get the hell out, and this advice comes from experience.

Each hurricane and storm is different though and everyone needs to make that decision whether to hunker down or leave.  When she passes us she'll only be 150 miles or so off shore with about 3-5' of storm surge, so it does concern me.  By the time she makes landfall much further north of us the storm surge will be catastrophic.  IMHO time to leave that area.