2024 Tropical Weather Discussion

[Cyber Liberty]

[libertybele]

Same system. and the GFS does the same.  Closest according to GFS should be a few hundred miles of there, before re-curving back to the NE.

It's really too early to tell, but it just may cause some problems for the Keys or Miami -- and as it curves maybe the Carolinas??? Depends on when it curves to the N and how close it gets??

[catfish1957]

It's really too early to tell, but it just may cause some problems for the Keys or Miami -- and as it curves maybe the Carolinas??? Depends on when it curves to the N and how close it gets??

This far out, it is anyone's guess.  In fact, all it would take would a continental shift in Jet, and upper flow patterns to turn this thing on its ear.  That's the rub of model runs more than 3 -5 days old.

[Cyber Liberty]

This far out, it is anyone's guess.  In fact, all it would take would a continental shift in Jet, and upper flow patterns to turn this thing on its ear.  That's the rub of model runs more than 3 -5 days old.

I saw a map today that had High Pressure systems all over the Eastern part of the US., and no Lows.  You are correct, this is anybody's guess.

This from a Joker in AZ, who's never seen a 'Cane....

[catfish1957]

Today's GFS has AL 98 strenthening earlier to about 963 Mb hurricane in about a  week or so. That'd be a low end Cat 3, but fortunately, this last run amplifies the north and east turn, likely now before nearing the Bahamas.  Last thoughts on this one, unless there are major changes,

[catfish1957]

Looking ahead after Bermuda's upcoming weekend  brush with Ernesto as a Cat 1/2.......

The real star of the show this season has been the GFS.  It's done a excellent job handling tropical systems.  Now, and it is hard to believe, but the next bit of expected tropical weather is about 330 hours out (13 days).  And even then it shows a weak T.D. forming off Hatteras, then moving NE remaining over sea, below Hurricane strength. 

No systems for 12 days in the middle of August?  I don't believe it.   

What is good now, and I hope the trend holds, is we have been on a NW-SE progression of contingental weather systems.  As long as that holds, we should see fish storms more likely than a direct hit.

[libertybele]

Why The Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Quiet For Awhile After Ernesto

"0" for the rest of August: The rather blank satellite image below tells the story. With Ernesto transitioning to a non-tropical low, there are no other areas the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for development over the next seven days.

W​hy so quiet? There are two ingredients in play that are typically hostile for tropical development.

F​irst, wind shear is unusually high for this time of year in the strip of the Atlantic Basin from east of the Lesser Antilles to Africa, a zone where tropical development can often occur in the peak months of hurricane season. Wind shear tends to rip apart systems trying to organize into tropical storms.
T​here's also much more dry, sinking, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert pushing westward into Atlantic Ocean than typical for this time of year, according to WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. This air suppresses thunderstorms, which are the building blocks of disturbances trying to become tropical storms. Some of this dry air was ingested, at times, into Hurricane Ernesto, which may have prevented it from becoming stronger.

Disturbances known as tropical waves pushing westward off Africa appear to be doing so farther north over cooler water and choking on the dry Saharan air, according to Royal Caribbean Group chief meteorologist Craig Setzer.

W​hen it could perk up again: This lull likely won't last long. Expect the Atlantic to resume generating storms by early or mid-September.

The suppressive environment over the basin is expected to flip to a supportive environment for development by next month...........

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/why-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-will-be-quiet-for-a-while-after-ernesto/ar-AA1p856x

[catfish1957]

Thanks.....

One thing also that seems a slight off kilter, is the ICTZ activity seems about 5 degrees too south for anything to spin off, as far as Cape Verde storms.

I remember something silmilar mid August in 2005, and we all know how that season finished.   

[libertybele]

Thanks.....

One thing also that seems a slight off kilter, is the ICTZ activity seems about 5 degrees too south for anything to spin off, as far as Cape Verde storms.

I remember something silmilar mid August in 2005, and we all know how that season finished.   

2005 - I certainly hope we don't see a repeat. September seems to be our worst month, so I'm praying for the 'quiet' to continue.

[libertybele]

'The tropics are broken:' So where are all the Atlantic hurricanes?

he 2024 hurricane season is not going as predicted – yet.

So far this year, including the three that are spinning Monday, there have been more storms in the Pacific than the Atlantic, and that's a bit of a surprise, forecasters say. In addition, it's been eerily calm in the Atlantic over the past week or so as we approach what's traditionally the busiest time of the season.

"It is quiet out there," Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY on Monday. "I certainly wasn't expecting this when we put out our most recent seasonal forecast!"

"We haven't had a named storm since Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20," he said, "and the National Hurricane Center currently forecasts no additional storm formations for the next seven days."

Klotzbach said that if we look at named storms (tropical storms, subtropical storms and hurricanes), the last time that we went from Aug. 21 to Sept. 2 with no named storm activity in the Atlantic was 1997.

The Atlantic tropics are broken – for now," said meteorologist Ryan Maue on X Sunday, adding that developing storms near Africa are encountering at least one problem: "Ocean temperatures at this latitude are way too cool to sustain a rain shower."

Hurricanes need warm ocean water to thrive like cars need fuel to run, and while the ocean is plenty warm in many areas, it's not where the storms are developing right now.

Klotzbach also said that while some large-scale meteorological patterns are favoring storm formation, others are acting to prevent storms from forming...........

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/08/26/hurricane-forecast-atlantic-pacific/74953599007/

[Gefn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1Ly1Frr1SI

[jmyrlefuller]

Oh, don't mind me, just laughing my keester off about how this was supposed to be one of the biggest years for hurricanes on record.

For the record, where we stood at named storms in previous unusually active seasons: in 2005, we were at K by the last week of August (the infamous Katrina) and in 2012 (the year of Sandy), we were at J.

We are, obviously, only at E—half that of those seasons. So I'd say the odds of all those forecasts of a massive season are looking to be a pretty big bust. Not that things can't change in the next two months, but don't hold your breath.

[catfish1957]

Things continue to be incredibly quiet for the Tropics this time of the year. 

While parsing the GFS, which has done a great job so far this year with storms, not much should change during the next 14 days.

A couple of features noted:

1. at  the +210 hour mark, there shows to be a strong depression/ weak T.S. in the vicinity of Bermuda
2. Also at the +210 - +280 hour mark a wave/depression seems to want to form off the Northern Mexico coast.
3. At +336 hours a wave/weak TD tries to form off the AL/FL panhandle area.

At this time of the year, the Models normally have something scary on the map.  Stay tuned.

[jmyrlefuller]

Tropical Storm Francine thread separated and stickied.

[cato potatoe]

Looks like the eastern Gulf of Mexico is primed for another storm late in the week.

[mystery-ak]

Hurricane Helene To Bring Potentially Devastating Florida Storm Surge, Dangerous Flash Flooding, Winds Inland
By Jonathan Erdman And Chris Dolceless than an hour ago

At a Glance

    Helene is currently hammering Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
    Helene will intensify and grow in size over the Gulf through Thursday.
    Helene's Florida landfall will occur Thursday night, but impacts will arrive well in advance.
    Potentially devastating storm surge, damaging winds and flash flooding from rain are all Florida threats.
    Damaging winds, serious flash flooding and a tornado threat will push well inland in parts of the Southeast into Friday.

Where is it now: Helene became the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season late Wednesday morning. It is centered just under 500 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is tracking north. Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph.

T​he storm is drenching parts of Mexico's Yucatan and western Cuba. W​ind gusts over 50 mph have been measured at Isla Mujeres, an island just northeast of Cancún.



M​eanwhile, bands of heavy rain have developed well ahead of Helene over parts of the Southeast U.S., prompting occasional flash flood warnings as far north as southwest Virginia.


Watches and warnings in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect from Florida's Big Bend and Nature Coast into southwest Georgia, including Tallahassee. Storm surge warnings extend from Indian Pass southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

As shown in the map below, tropical storm warnings cover most of the rest of Florida and extend into coastal South Carolina. Tropical storm watches extend through the rest of Georgia and other parts of South Carolina and western North Carolina.

T​hese alerts mean hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge conditions are either expected (warnings) or possible (watches) in these areas within the next 36 to 48 hours.

Interests in the warned areas should implement their hurricane plans and heed any advice from local emergency managers.



more
https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php?action=post;topic=533910.0;last_msg=3078560

[Cyber Liberty]

Split Hurricane Helene into a new Thread. 

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,542411.0.html

[libertybele]

Next tropical threat brewing in Caribbean with eyes on Gulf of Mexico

MIAMI — The Southeast is still reeling from Hurricane Helene's deadly punch, but attention will soon need to return to the Caribbean as the tropics’ next act begins to brew.

Forecast models indicate a new area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea by early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center .............



https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/next-tropical-threat-brewing-caribbean-eyes-gulf-mexico

[libertybele]

I think FL has been inundated by enough storms this year.  Another one??  Please no. 

[catfish1957]

Next tropical threat brewing in Caribbean with eyes on Gulf of Mexico

MIAMI — The Southeast is still reeling from Hurricane Helene's deadly punch, but attention will soon need to return to the Caribbean as the tropics’ next act begins to brew.

GFS, which has done a decent job this season has about a 961mB (Low end Cat 3)  landfalling near the AL/FL border 6 Oct 2024.  Still over a week away, so much can change, but that's the synopisis at this point.

[libertybele]

GFS, which has done a decent job this season has about a 961mB (Low end Cat 3)  landfalling near the AL/FL border 6 Oct 2024.  Still over a week away, so much can change, but that's the synopisis at this point.

  I hope somehow this falls apart or goes out to sea.  Good grief that area has been through one disaster after another within a very short period of time.

[cato potatoe]

Well the latest gfs is like something out of satan’s scrapbook, with another flood for western NC.  Other models are not much better.  It’s time for the tropics to go back to sleep. 

[libertybele]

Well the latest gfs is like something out of satan’s scrapbook, with another flood for western NC.  Other models are not much better.  It’s time for the tropics to go back to sleep.

Agreed...the tropics needs to go back to sleep for several years. We could use a long calm and quiet period.

[libertybele]

Sigh ... there are several areas of concern all lined up in the Atlantic...one expected to head northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico and predicted to at least becoming a tropical depression.   Enough already.   

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[catfish1957]

A little tad of good news from the NHC today.  They have dropped the probablity of that pesky low (wave) in the Caribbean from developing from 80% to 50% in the next 5 days.  Though the GFS is still similarly still picking it up, but has moved the target more towards Pensacola instead of the FL/AL line.

I really don't see what could discourage strengthening, except that the path might be in the cool wake churned up by Helene last week.  NHC, has a lot more data than I have.  All the convection in the wave is moving very linear-ly, with no spin at at all.  That might be the rub where the storm reaches central america before having a chance to form a low.