2024 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

Placeholder to have ongoing discussions on tropical system development and trending.   

According to NHC, and other met punditry, 2024 is suposed to be a big year, with (1) El-Nino/Nina' cycle in perfect alginment, (2) seaside temperatures mostly in bathwater criteria, and (3) Low general ATL/Caribb, shearing relatively low. 

10 Days in, an no ATL basin activity yet.  Checking the latest run of the GFS, the only suspicious looking tropical activity seems to be about 175-200 hours in at about 18 Jun, along the FL panhandle/AL border, where a low seems to be forming, and then seems to linger along the coast.    Looking at the isobars, it doesn't seem too strong, maybe no more than a 1000mb at best.

On the Sat maps, I see

(1) one weak wave near the Bahamas
(2) one strong N/S axis of precip stretching from south of Cuba to near Nicaragua.
(3) GOM clear
(4) Couple of small waves along the ITCZ, but these rarely form this time of the year.

No development seems likely soon. 

And at 10 days out obviously, confidence in any part of the run is low.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024061006&fh=174

[catfish1957]

We now have our first system to discuss.

The NHC now has a system in the queue.  The more pressing one is an apparent depression in the Bay of Campeche.  Models are generally moving this westward toward Mexico as a 50 mph Tropical Storm.  A couple of things hurting this storm at least short term is organization.  The spread of convection is tilted N/S, and the COC (center of circulation) is difficult to extract on the surface maps. The IR sat does a decent job of pin pointing, but the main theme is that (1) The axis of low pressure is broad, and doesn't seem to be tightening quickly. (2) Distance to land land, speed, and projection do not seem too conducive to development and (3) Look at the arid nature the air to the west of the storm.  With that Sahara like profile, I am surprised the NHC didn't give it better chance to die.

On the GFS for long term,  the model on about the 27th has a depression forming south of the central FL panhandle, moving north to near Apalachiacola.  Early runs show about a 998Mb low, which I will guess will be a depression or a weak Tropcial Storm if it forms and landfalls at or near the 28th.  What is odd about the system is that it shows to slightly strengthen as it moves inland, giving me the hint that by this time it likely is not tropical in nature.  This is waaaay early on, so my confidence is pretty low on this one, though it does and is consitent with the past 4 runs. 

Caribbean and Atlantic are clear, which isn't unusual this early on

[catfish1957]

0700 update.....

Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted from Port O'Connor southward.......

[catfish1957]

Saw on last intermediate advisory (7Am CDT) that winds of Potential TC #1's winds have reached 35kt.  So I am guessing that at the 10Am adviosry we will likely the announcement of the 1st named storm Alberto.  Unless....   the NHC thinks that the characteristics of this low are extra-tropical, and from my POV, I am guessing a coin flip on this one.

Considering the storms about 800 miles of coast line warranting a T.S. warning, it might not be a tropical low, but looking at the SAT maps, there is so little amount of convection around the low center, that even if it does get upgraded to T.S, it's only going to be a nuisance to Northern Mexico and south Texas, say.....   Corpus to Brownsville. 

Outside this potentionally being the first named storm, I see this one as a nothing burger, unless we get some trailing storms that do some flooding.   Otherwise, this will be my only report on this one, an uneventful landfall is expected about 2 AM tomorrow morning a couple of hundred miles south of Brownsville. 

[catfish1957]

Alberto did get named on cue.  1st named storm of the season.  One added post to show the amazing ability of what happens when a tropical system sees orographical effects.  Some areas of inland Mexico are going to see 30 inches of rain. 

[libertybele]

Wow.  I didn't realize that Mexico could see 30 inches of rain.  That's ridiculous.  (Quick - build your ark).

[berdie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bputeFGXEjA&pp=ygUPYmlsbCBjb3NieSBub2Fo

[catfish1957]

Today..  Alberto about 100 miles inland in Northern Mexico, and expected to drench a good but of the north part of the country.

Next up?  AL92, which according to the NHC is about 300 miles east of Daytona Beach, with an expected WNW movement.  NHC has given this system a 40% chance of development, and forcasting early on toward NE FL or GA area. This one isn't popping up on the GFS models, yet, so I am guessing the traditonal and tropical models are diverging.  And often the tropical models are better specific predictors, while tradional lags. 

Sat views don't show much yet, but that area near the Bahamas is like bath water, and sheer is minimal.  Will have to watch.

[libertybele]

Today..  Alberto about 100 miles inland in Northern Mexico, and expected to drench a good but of the north part of the country.

Next up?  AL92, which according to the NHC is about 300 miles east of Daytona Beach, with an expected WNW movement.  NHC has given this system a 40% chance of development, and forcasting early on toward NE FL or GA area. This one isn't popping up on the GFS models, yet, so I am guessing the traditonal and tropical models are diverging.  And often the tropical models are better specific predictors, while tradional lags. 

Sat views don't show much yet, but that area near the Bahamas is like bath water, and sheer is minimal.  Will have to watch.

The temps in FL have been unusually warm for this time of year. I think we are in for a nasty hurricane season and I'm praying that FL stays out of experiencing some heavy action. We could use a break, the past couple of years have been pretty rough.  It's time for quieter years ahead.

[catfish1957]

The temps in FL have been unusually warm for this time of year. I think we are in for a nasty hurricane season and I'm praying that FL stays out of experiencing some heavy action. We could use a break, the past couple of years have been pretty rough.  It's time for quieter years ahead.

The tropics can def. throw curves, but as far as AL 92, unless it slows down from its 15kt WNW track, intensification should be minimal.  In fact unless you animate the sat runs, right now it just looks like a simple  clump of clouds. 

[catfish1957]

Two systems... 

AL92, that was disccused earlier is still lurking off the SC/FL coast.  NHC and models see this thing slowly devleoping and might make landfall as a minimal TD.  Looking at the SAT maps, I was impressed that a nice circular cluster of convection form, meaning that this thing might be slowly developing.

In the wake of Alberto, AL 93 has flared up on the Yucatan Penn.  Does not appear that any of the Cane models have inititated on this low yet, but the GFS has it on a WNW track in a similar path to Alberto.  There is a nice wide strand of dry air aloft in the Western Gulf that should prevent any rapid development.

[catfish1957]

Updates will be simple and brief this morning....

AL92 has made it inland at coastal Georgia.  Not much more than a rainy day expected there.

AL93 is still kicking, but low center has been relocated to a lot closer to Mexico.  Some slight strengthening is expected, and I guess the storm becomes depression and soaks areas previously hit by Alberto, earlier in the week.

Otherwise, the tropics look pretty quiet, though I am pretty impressed at the ICTZ activity out in the Atlantic at 30-40 degrees West.  Some of that activity looks a lot like what you'd see in August.  Not saying this is a harbringer of an early Cape Verde season, but worth noted on the short term.

[catfish1957]

Two new systems up for review.  AL94 and AL95.

AL 94 is in the western Caribbean moving westward, with a NHC  estimate of 30% of reaching Depresssion strength.  System is strongly elongated E-W, with enough of shear to unlikely make it anything of substance.  This area has already been churned up in the past few weeks by Alberto and another deep wave.  I am wagering that it remains a wave and gives northern Mexico with anohter bout of unneeeded rain.

Of more long term interest is AL95, which is @12.5N, 35W.   Waaaay out there.  Mentioned last time that it sure seems that we are in a potentially active Cape Verde season.  The GFS model (and take it for a grain of salt this far out) has the system becoming a storm in the GOM about the 4th, and approaching the mid to upper Texas coast on about July 7th.  The GFS isn't blowing it up as a huge storm, but from the isobar placement, I'd say Cat 1 or so.    But again, this is so far out, confidence is <10%.  But this does show that (1) buckle up for a active Cape Verde Season and (2) Seeing CV development in June, though not impossible, is fairly unusual.

[libertybele]

I keep hoping that the U.S. doesn't see any major hurricanes this year.  We could use a break!

[jmyrlefuller]

Hurricane Beryl discussion

[catfish1957]

And then.....

As just another example of how much of hurricane science is a mystery, we are approaching almost 3 weeks of almost nil tropical development.   Seeing a few little flareups along the ICTZ, but all the conditions present should be generating some action.

There are a couple of pathetic looking waves @ 30W and 40W.  But still, Cape Verde Season is still a tad a ways, and with low shear, warm seat temps, and overall condtions, I can see this changing pretty quickly. 

[catfish1957]

After a near month of a breather, it appears that the Tropics are starting to get active again.

Right now there is a vigorous Wave (AL97) located about on the Island of Hispanola.  The system is moving WNW, and NHC expects the system move into the Eastern GOM near south FL, and form into a Depression this weekend or early next week.

I can't see any true hurricane models that are looking at this yet, but the handy dandy GFS has this thing forming a Depression near the Keys,, then forming into a minor TS, before coming ashore near Tampa.  Then, reforming off the eastern FL coast, then to become a large hurricane, and hugging the Carolina Coasts, about 7-10 days from now.

Again....  That far out, these models are pretty worthless, but that is what the trends are showing right now.

[catfish1957]

AL 97 is lookin much stronger this morning, and I am not surprised that the NHC has given this area of disturbance a 90% chance of developing into a storm. This morning, I counted 9 individual outflow covection clusters around what is a vague center on the west coast of Haiti. 

As  near what the GFS was forecasting early on, thoughts are this initially  looks like a FL storm.  (See yesterday's post).  Biggest influence right now is a pretty robust front for the year digging down into the SE U.S.  I see very few ways this thing takes much of westward trajectory.  Which is a good thing because is the GOM is hot, and nearly cloudless, and sheerless.  If we see more of a westward track, it could get interesting for especially the northern or northwestern gulf. 

See the storm hasn't offically formed yet, so I am not seeing any definitive Wind Speed projections, but if you put any faith in the GFS, it looks like a T.S. or minimal Hurricane for the western or NW FL coast...  Storm reemerges in the Atlantic, and become a serious problem for the Carolinas.

So much can change between now and preperations, but stay tuned. 

[catfish1957]

Addendum:

Looking at the GFS this morning, it's forcasting that if and when the storm intenisfies off the east coast, it'll be a 972Mb storm, which is typical for about a Cat 2.   What is interesting, (which I don't beleive) is that it lingers off Hatteras for about 48 hours.

[libertybele]

Addendum:

Looking at the GFS this morning, it's forcasting that if and when the storm intenisfies off the east coast, it'll be a 972Mb storm, which is typical for about a Cat 2.   What is interesting, (which I don't beleive) is that it lingers off Hatteras for about 48 hours.

Interesting.  Local weather advisories are only indicating for SWFL - 2-6" rain, possible storm surge and wind gusts around 40 mph. No mention of a possible hurricane whatsoever. 

Thank you for your assessment (that is why I came in here) --- the spaghetti models show the storm staying off the coast, and going up into the Big Bend area then to the Carolinas.  However, I also see the possibility of strengthening and the possibility of coming much closer to the southern coast of FL.

[cato potatoe]

Addendum:

Looking at the GFS this morning, it's forcasting that if and when the storm intenisfies off the east coast, it'll be a 972Mb storm, which is typical for about a Cat 2.   What is interesting, (which I don't beleive) is that it lingers off Hatteras for about 48 hours.

What's going on with the flare up over the Caribbean?  Is a center trying to consolidate to the south.  I'm thinking a launch point on the left side of the cone would give it time to strengthen quite bit more.

[catfish1957]

What's going on with the flare up over the Caribbean?  Is a center trying to consolidate to the south.  I'm thinking a launch point on the left side of the cone would give it time to strengthen quite bit more.

AL 97 is now TD 4.  COC seems pretty strong right now over east central Cuba.  But you are right....   The most important data point of hurricane directional forecsting is initialization.  I think what you are were seeing is off center convection, which in early storm can be a lot stronger than around the center.  The NHC has reason to believe that the low is completely closed.  Looking at the vis-sat, I can kind of see it, but wouldn't bet the farm.

What is really good news, is that the intensification that the GFS was prediciting isn't ending up in the offical NHC expected forecast.  Looks like TS strength for the balance of the forecast period. (5 days)



FL Briefers...  TS watches/warnings for the entire W FL coast.  And around the horn to about Miami

[catfish1957]

Looking past Debby, this morning is showing a real robust Cape Vede Wave @ abt 15N 40W, at least a 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC only gives this a 30% of development in the next 48 hrs. , but I think the odds are a tad above that.  Leaning that way, because there does appear on the vis sat, a pre-circular looking convection patterns. 

Plenty of time to watch this one.  One bit of data that may influence storm direction, are the upper level patterns which are seeing some pretty deep lows digging pretty far south for this time of the year.  If that pattern holds, expect more storms to impact the east coast, rather than the GOM. 

The handy dandy GFS did a pretty good job handling Debby eveen 168 hours out, looking at the Hatteras.   This time, the model takes the system to Cuba/ Bahama areas @ the 126 hour point as a 989Mb low (T.S.).  Strengthening nicely, but a few hundred miles east of Hatteras.  The GFS thinks it will be  a fish/Bermuda storm....  at least on this run,

[libertybele]

Looking past Debby, this morning is showing a real robust Cape Vede Wave @ abt 15N 40W, at least a 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC only gives this a 30% of development in the next 48 hrs. , but I think the odds are a tad above that.  Leaning that way, because there does appear on the vis sat, a pre-circular looking convection patterns. 

Plenty of time to watch this one.  One bit of data that may influence storm direction, are the upper level patterns which are seeing some pretty deep lows digging pretty far south for this time of the year.  If that pattern holds, expect more storms to impact the east coast, rather than the GOM. 

The handy dandy GFS did a pretty good job handling Debby eveen 168 hours out, looking at the Hatteras.   This time, the model takes the system to Cuba/ Bahama areas @ the 126 hour point as a 989Mb low (T.S.).  Strengthening nicely, but a few hundred miles east of Hatteras.  The GFS thinks it will be  a fish/Bermuda storm....  at least on this run,

Are you talking about Invest 98L??  Local weather spaghetti models show it eventually veering off away from land.

[catfish1957]

Are you talking about Invest 98L??  Local weather spaghetti models show it eventually veering off away from land.

Same system. and the GFS does the same.  Closest according to GFS should be a few hundred miles of there, before re-curving back to the NE.