Author Topic: Hurricane Helene  (Read 64613 times)

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Offline catfish1957

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Hurricane Helene
« on: September 22, 2024, 09:59:29 am »
Looks like the eastern Gulf of Mexico is primed for another storm late in the week.

GFS has a Low end Cat 3 (961Mb) approaching the Western FL Coast. this Thursday.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 08:36:48 am by catfish1957 »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2024, 11:02:01 pm »
Yikes!!!..

Latest GFS now at bout a 942Mb storm aiming at Panama Beach-ish area.

That'd be a Cat 4.
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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2024, 12:34:06 am »
Yeah the GFS is trending east as well, along with a couple of other models.  No bueno.  We'll have to see where the storm initializes, as a subtle change will make a big difference. 

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2024, 04:41:39 am »
Yikes!!!..

Latest GFS now at bout a 942Mb storm aiming at Panama Beach-ish area.

That'd be a Cat 4.




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« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 04:53:30 am by Wingnut »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2024, 08:51:28 am »
Yeah the GFS is trending east as well, along with a couple of other models.  No bueno.  We'll have to see where the storm initializes, as a subtle change will make a big difference.

There's a significant amount of ebbing and flowing blobs of precipitation hovering around the 18N 85W right now. (200 miles SW of Jamaica).  That's not too far from the GFS run.  One thing I noticed interesting in the last run, was the robust Low/High differential upcoming in the N. USA (34Mb). That's almost winter like, so I am guessing there will be significant potential eastward shifting of Cone, especially if those systems dig far south. 

With that, I wouldn't rule out the Tampa ,and entire western coast of FL.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2024, 10:11:50 am »



Swell.

Looks like this one is heading your way....  :0001:
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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2024, 10:36:05 am »
Looks like this one is heading your way....  :0001:

Hoping it gets pushed east to the low density population area of the Big Bend.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2024, 04:53:50 pm »
This one is a monster in size and local forecasters have stated that it could push more eastward ...waiting to see tomorrow how far east they think she'll go -- we could be in for a wild ride with this one.  She'll be quicker than Ian and won't linger, but likely more storm surge (sigh).  The cones show this one going all the way up into GA -- so for those on the west side -- best to cross the alley and go over to the other coast.  (That's going to be a major traffic jam just waiting to happen). 

Hurricane Helene forecast to form and rapidly intensify before slamming into Florida

An area of thunderstorms in the Caribbean is expected to develop into Hurricane Helene and rapidly intensify over the exceptionally warm Gulf of Mexico before slamming into the United States’ Gulf Coast later this week, potentially as a major hurricane.

The storm has not formed yet but is expected to soon, so the National Hurricane Center has dubbed it Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to warn of its imminent threat.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of Mexico and Cuba. Similar alerts will be issued for the US in the coming days, with a potential landfall in Florida expected perhaps as soon Thursday night.

Florida wasted no time getting preparations underway. Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm for 41 the state’s 67 counties, according to a Monday press release. The move helps to expedite preparations and coordination between the state and local governments.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is a disorganized mass of showers and thunderstorms churning in the far western Caribbean Sea. This stormy weather will drop potentially flooding rainfall over portions of Central America, Mexico, Cuba and Jamaica as it tries to organize into a tropical system.

While its exact track and strength could change, Helene will track north over the extremely warm waters into the Gulf of Mexico which could supercharge it on its collision course with the US Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Helene to rapidly intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane over a record-warm Gulf of Mexico – a feat becoming more likely as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

It could strengthen more than forecast, and the NHC warns there is a chance for a Category 3 major hurricane.

Strong, potentially damaging winds and storm surge are likely near where the system ultimately comes ashore. The system will also churn up seas in the Gulf and could produce rough surf and dangerous rip currents for much of the basin, especially later this week...................

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/weather/helene-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-climate/index.html


« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 05:04:31 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2024, 04:57:54 pm »
Hoping it gets pushed east to the low density population area of the Big Bend.
Right now if it stays the course it looks like it will just graze the Palm Coast (Flagler County). No worries

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153941.shtml?gm_track#contents
« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 05:04:18 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2024, 05:02:31 pm »
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday issued a state of emergency for 41 counties ahead of tropical weather that is likely later this week.

The counties are: Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington.

https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2024/09/23/state-of-emergency-issued-for-41-florida-counties-ahead-of-storm

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2024, 06:17:01 pm »
Major hurricane could hit Florida this week. How will the system affect Brevard?

Florida Today
Michelle Spitzer
Sept 23, 2024

Enjoy a dry day Tuesday, but get your umbrella handy Wednesday and keep it close through the weekend.

A system is brewing in the tropics and is expected to quickly develop into a tropical storm in the next day or two. While it’s on the other side of the state, Brevard County is still expected to feel the effects of what's likely to become Hurricane Helene.

“Locally we’ll have heavy rainfall, high, gusty winds, especially in rain squalls and tornadoes are favorable because we will be on the east side of the system,” said Tim Sedlock, meteorologist with the National Weather Center in Melbourne. “As we get into Thursday, Thursday night, that would be the worst of the impact.”

(more)
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/2024/09/23/developing-storm-might-be-hurricane-mean-brevard-gulf-helene/75346080007/
« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 08:59:18 am by mystery-ak »
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Offline mountaineer

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2024, 07:00:44 pm »
The abnormal is not the normal just because it is prevalent.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2024, 09:14:00 pm »
Most recent batch of weather models tells a significantly different story with Gulf of Mexico tropical system.  That's why we need to be careful with tropical storms that have not yet fully developed. 

09L (Helene) gets hung up over land of Yucatan peninsula and fails to intensify rapidly through late Wednesday.  Instead of Cat 5 -- it's maybe a TS at +66 hours.  Let's hope this trend continues!



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« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 09:17:07 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

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« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 09:21:53 pm by libertybele »

Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2024, 11:29:03 am »
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Helene to rapidly intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane over a record-warm Gulf of Mexico – a feat becoming more likely as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2024, 01:29:58 pm »
Helene has been named.  We finally have a well defined point of intialization to wrap some decent model data around. 

The CoC is tad west of where I thought it would be, and early path through the western side of the Yucatan Channel.  The data point one of this storm history is why the initial NHC has the bullseye on Tallahassee rather than Tampa, as I had earlier guessed.  I am impressed (surprised) of the narrow cone.  The model data is incredibly tight with a window this long.



OTOH, I do see this as optimistic, since the expected "right turn" at 87W is "iffy", depending on how quickly and deeply the trough / front approaching the NW GOM is.  If it slows down, I could see NOLA to Appalachicola in play.  If it speeds up, then Tampa and the entire western FL Gulf Coast is the cone.

I am secondly a tad surprised of the rapid intensification forecast, considering that there is some decent sheer 200 mi wide stretching from SW Florida to the Yucatan Pennsula.  And still there is a very favorable environment once the storm moves north of this sheer area.
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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2024, 02:08:28 pm »
There is a weird little swirl moving SW of main convection, which Dr. Cowan thinks is one of several mesovortices rotating around a center ... the others being hidden underneath the dense overcast to the NE.  He still thinks Helene will slide through the Yucatan Channel, instead of spinning down over the Yucatan, and then quickly get shunted NE by the low over Memphis.  I guess we find out soon enough.

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2024, 03:14:49 pm »
Helene has been named.  We finally have a well defined point of intialization to wrap some decent model data around. 

The CoC is tad west of where I thought it would be, and early path through the western side of the Yucatan Channel.  The data point one of this storm history is why the initial NHC has the bullseye on Tallahassee rather than Tampa, as I had earlier guessed.  I am impressed (surprised) of the narrow cone.  The model data is incredibly tight with a window this long.



OTOH, I do see this as optimistic, since the expected "right turn" at 87W is "iffy", depending on how quickly and deeply the trough / front approaching the NW GOM is.  If it slows down, I could see NOLA to Appalachicola in play.  If it speeds up, then Tampa and the entire western FL Gulf Coast is the cone.

I am secondly a tad surprised of the rapid intensification forecast, considering that there is some decent sheer 200 mi wide stretching from SW Florida to the Yucatan Pennsula.  And still there is a very favorable environment once the storm moves north of this sheer area.

Locally we are already receiving tropical storm and storm surge watches.  They still are showing spaghetti models with an intensity of a Cat. 3 aiming for Tampa, a little different than what you are showing, but it's been shifting back and forth now for awhile. They are calling it the 'windshield wiper affect'.

So far we have been told we can expect 4-6" of rain and storm surge of 3-5' and storm surge is predicted to affect us inland -- much like Debby not too long ago.

Evacuations orders have already started for those a little north of us. 

Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2024, 12:26:08 am »
???

Helene is supposed to be making it's nortward right turn now in the Yucatan Channel, but I still not only see a strong westward vector of core storm, but also am seeing the advanced convection doint the same.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me on the Vis Sat loops, it looks likw Helene may be spending some time over the Yucatan.

Why is that important?  If this storm has any level of delay in that turn, we are going to see some westward shift. the destination cone.  The models aren't reading that yet, and there may be something I am missing,  but I am pretty sure the foci points are west of NHC guidance.
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2024, 08:07:45 am »
Tropical Storm Helene live updates: 'Life-threatening' storm surge to hit Florida's west coast in next 36 hours



Quote


The University of South Florida ia taking no chances as the state braces for the impact of Tropical Storm Helene tomorrow, likely as a hurricane.

The college has canceled all classes through Monday and closed access to its campuses until at least Friday.

"The University of South Florida continues to monitor Tropical Storm Helene. The safety of our students, faculty and staff is our highest priority as we track the storm and the possible impacts to the Tampa Bay region," the college said in a statement this morning.

Florida is set to be hit hard by Tropical Storm Helene, forecasters said today, ahead of its likely arrival as a hurricane late tomorrow.






https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/live-blog/storm-helene-live-updates-rcna172604
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Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2024, 08:16:36 am »
My parents are back on Fort Myer's beach condo, rather close to libertybele actually. I talked to them about this and they're worried.

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2024, 09:19:37 am »
For safety, depopulation of parts of Florida must be considered.

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2024, 09:24:49 am »
???

Helene is supposed to be making it's nortward right turn now in the Yucatan Channel, but I still not only see a strong westward vector of core storm, but also am seeing the advanced convection doint the same.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me on the Vis Sat loops, it looks likw Helene may be spending some time over the Yucatan.

Why is that important?  If this storm has any level of delay in that turn, we are going to see some westward shift. the destination cone.  The models aren't reading that yet, and there may be something I am missing,  but I am pretty sure the foci points are west of NHC guidance.

Our local weather is seeing what you are seeing; a slightly westward shift but still directly impacting the Big Bend area.  They don't believe that, that will change right now.  Our impact from the storm will still be storm surge and tropical storm winds.

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2024, 10:00:16 am »
My parents are back on Fort Myer's beach condo, rather close to libertybele actually. I talked to them about this and they're worried.

Local news is saying as of this morning all of this coast of FL IS under a tropical storm and storm surge warning especially along the coast. Ft. Myers Beach is obviously a coastal area and they also may be locally issuing their own warnings and preparing.

https://winknews.com/2024/09/25/how-southwest-florida-is-preparing-for-tropical-storm-helene/



Offline Sighlass

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2024, 10:04:22 am »
Well models are showing 3 days of Rain for us, I woke up to the first thunder sounds I have heard in weeks this morning... and it is starting to pour now. Where this thing takes a U-turn inland is gonna be interesting, cause it can dump a lot of rain in backing up.
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