At The Current Rate, It Would Take Russia Centuries And Tens Of Millions Of Casualties To Capture Ukraine
But that doesn’t mean Russian leaders aren’t committed to the war effort
David Axe | May 01, 2025 | 05:18pm EDTRussian forces managed to capture around 68 square miles of Ukraine in April. But it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded troops, according to one statistician who collects data mostly from official Ukrainian sources including the general staff in Kyiv.
In the same month, Ukrainian losses were “minimal,” concluded analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting in Poland.
Ukraine sprawls across 233,000 square miles, 19% of which is under Russian occupation. At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million.
Incredibly, staggering losses in people and equipment haven’t yet crippled the Russian military in Ukraine. The Kremlin is equipping its forces with thousands of civilian vehicles, including scooters, compact cars and even at least one bus.
Meanwhile, it’s recruiting 30,000 troops per month, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told U.S. lawmakers on April 3. Since many of the wounded eventually return to the front line, the Russian armed forces recruit more people every month than they lose.
As a result, Cavoli said, the Russian force in Ukraine is actually growing. It now numbers no fewer than 600,000 troops, “the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force” in February 2022, Cavoli said.
How the Kremlin has managed to sustain and even expand its recruitment effort comes down to two things: money and mood. Record enlistments are “driven by high sign-on bonuses and speculation that the war will soon be over,” explained Janis Kluge, deputy head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division . . .
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/05/01/at-the-current-rate-it-would-take-russia-centuries-and-tens-of-millions-of-casualties-to-capture-ukraine/
