Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2025
Excerpts:
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia maintains the initial objectives of its war in Ukraine, which are tantamount to Ukraine’s surrender, despite ongoing negotiations with the United States. Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin published a documentary on Russian state TV channel Rossiya 1 about Putin on May 4, in which Putin claimed that Russia has enough manpower and materiel to bring the war in Ukraine to its “logical conclusion with the result that Russia needs.”
Putin also claimed that Russian reconciliation with the Ukrainian part of the Russian people is “inevitable.” Putin has repeatedly claimed that the Ukrainian people are simply a subset of Russians rather than a distinctly separate nation to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of Ukrainian territory and people.
Russian state media notably highlighted that Putin has previously made the false claim that Russians and Ukrainians are one people.
Putin’s statements indicate that Russia continues to assess that it can achieve its original objectives of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which include demilitarizing Ukraine, installing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to abandon its aspirations to join NATO and other security blocs, and forcing Ukraine to make massive territorial concessions to Russia, including parts of Ukraine that Russia does not currently occupy.
These demands amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation. Russia will likely continue efforts to achieve these goals through military and diplomatic means, as Russian officials continue attempts to leverage battlefield gains to strengthen their negotiating position.
Putin highlighted domestic support for the war and promoted the ideal of sacrifice on the frontline and the home front, likely in an effort to prepare Russian society for a longer war in Ukraine and potential future confrontations with the West. Putin told Zarubin that Russian society reacted positively to the invasion of Ukraine and that each citizen realized that “he is the state” and Russia’s survival depends on each individual.
Putin stated that Russia is a country of “moral and ethical values” and that the basis of the Russian conscience is “the family, the state, and the future of Russia.”
Putin is notably attempting to frame the Russian public’s support for the war through shared values despite the Kremlin’s reliance on financial incentives to recruit the majority of its military personnel and to maintain its war effort.
Putin accused the West once again of “deceiving” Russia following the 2015 Minsk agreements, likely in an effort to convince the Russian domestic audience that Russia cannot negotiate with the West and needs to continue the war.
Putin’s statements throughout the documentary indicate that Putin likely does not intend to slow offensive operations or transition to defensive operations in Ukraine and instead is attempting to ideologically prepare domestic Russian society for a long war. ISW has previously assessed that Russian officials are setting conditions to maintain a long war and to justify future aggression against Ukraine and NATO.
Russian officials have also consistently intensified efforts to militarize Russian society since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, further indicating that Russia is preparing for a protracted conflict. Russian officials are engaged in long-term efforts to consolidate control over Russia’s veteran civil society and elevate a cadre of loyal veterans to positions in Russia’s regional and federal government.
Putin officially declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” following the launch of myriad militaristic initiatives in 2023 and 2024 to provide veterans with social and financial support and reinforce the Russian state narrative that veterans are the new “elite” class.
Russia is also investing heavily in military-patriotic education for Russia’s youth, demonstrating the Kremlin’s interest in creating a new generation of militarized, loyal citizens in the medium to long term.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-4-2025
