Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13,2025
Excerpts:
The Russian military is reportedly generating enough forces to replace losses and is reinforcing the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine, despite experiencing an increased casualty rate per square kilometer gained. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be embracing significant losses in exchange for diminishing returns to make battlefield gains and manage perceptions about Russia’s military capabilities to pressure Ukraine in negotiations. Putin stated on May 13 that 50,000 to 60,000 people voluntarily join the Russian military per month ... Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov gave recruitment figures at the end of 2024, indicating that Russia is recruiting just enough military personnel to replace its recent casualty rates ... Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Head Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated in early March 2025 that Russia’s recruitment plans for 2025 will “mostly” allow the Russian military command to replace its battlefield losses should the current tempo of offensive operations and losses continue. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated in April 2024 that Russian forces are “increasing the number” of personnel in Ukraine by 8,000 to 9,000 new personnel per month through contract recruitment, and that the Russian force grouping fighting against Ukraine increased from about 603,000 on January 1, 2025, to 623,000 just over 3 months later.
Syrskyi stated on May 13 that Russian forces have suffered 177,000 casualties in Ukraine since the start of 2025 Syrskyi’s and Putin’s figures indicate that Russia may be generating enough forces to replace losses while also increasing the overall size of its force grouping in Ukraine. Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the casualty rate Russian forces sustained during a period of intensified advances in Fall 2024, despite a slowed rate of advance in the first 4 months of 2025. Russian forces are likely able to generate enough forces to sustain their replacement rate and increase the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine by rapidly deploying low quality troops to frontline units. ISW has repeatedly observed reports that new Russian recruits only receive a month of training before deploying to Ukraine, and this limited training is likely constraining recruits’ combat capabilities, and the Russian military’s overall capacity to successfully conduct complex operations.
The Russian military is currently prioritizing sending poorly-trained recruits into highly-attritional infantry assaults to make grinding advances - despite enduring a higher casualty rate per square kilometer gained - in an effort to pressure Ukraine and the West into acquiescing to Russian demands amid ongoing negotiations. Russia is also attempting to prolong negotiations to extract additional concessions from the United States and while making additional battlefield advances.
The Russian military may also be prioritizing recruitment as part of longer-term efforts to build out a post-war strategic reserve for a potential future conflict with NATO ... Cavoli stated that the Russian military command has deployed over 600,000 soldiers to the front lines in Ukraine, which is nearly double the size of Russia’s initial invasion force and is consistent with Syrskyi’s report that there are 623,000 Russian military personnel in Ukraine. Putin signed a decree in September 2024 ordering the Russian military to establish a 1.5 million combat-ready force, indicating his long-term interests in increasing the size of the Russian military.
Cavoli’s report coheres with recent indicators signaling that Russia is expanding and upgrading military bases, barracks, training grounds, warehouses, and railways near Petrozavodsk, Republic of Karelia, to support a future influx of personnel. Russia is also integrating railways and roadways in the Moscow Military District (MMD) with Belarusian infrastructure. ISW has long assessed that Russia’s restoration of the MMD and Leningrad Military District (LMD) is part of the Kremlin’s long-term restructuring effort to prepare for a potential large-scale conventional war against NATO.
The Russian military command appears to be establishing a tactical doctrine and force structure for motorcycle and civilian vehicles units in frontal assaults, underscoring the Russian military’s efforts to offset Ukraine’s drone advantages and achieve maneuver in modern ground warfare ... Mashovets stated that Russia is working to equip every battalion with up to 30 motorcycles, up to 20 ATVs, and up to 6 buggies; every platoon with up to 9 motorcycles, up to 20 ATVs, and up to 6 buggies; and every “Storm V” penal recruit assault company with up to 15 motorcycles, up to 20 ATVs, and up to 3 buggies ...
Ukrainian and Russian sources previously suggested that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is working to formalize Russian motorcycle usage, and the appearance of a defined doctrinal organization and allocation for motorcycle units within the Russian military is consistent with this effort ... The Russian military appears to be undergoing a transition period and moving towards regularly conducting assaults exclusively on motorcycles, although Russian forces may also continue to conduct these combined assaults, if Russian commanders assess that motorcycle assaults are less successful ...ISW previously noted that Russian motorcycle usage is a response to Ukrainian drone innovations and an attempt to offset the significant armored vehicle losses that Russian forces sustained in 2024 and possibly conserve some tanks and armored vehicles for future use. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely increasingly depend on motorcycles and other quicker, unarmored vehicles, as slower-moving vehicles have become a hazard on the more transparent battlefield of Ukraine.
The Russian military will likely retain its lessons learned in Ukraine beyond the war in Ukraine.https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13-2025
