Mid-term Election 2022 Live Thread – Welcome to the Party Pal!

[Smokin Joe]

I'm fully cognizant of Trump's personality flaws @DB my question to @corbe and now you remains.

What could Trump could have done solely on his own to fix the illegal ballots problem in some states?

Considering the Constitution calls for the States to follow the election rules and laws set forth by the several States' legislatures, Trump could have only called for cleaning up that political landscape (by the states themselves), and appointed judges who would enforce the Constitutional constraints that require any changes to come from the legislature, and not some edict by an appointee or executive branch flunky within the State Government. Where the law is breaking down is that changes are made in violation of the Constitution, yet no one is enforcing the Constitution, up to and including SCOTUS in 2020.

[Hoodat]

His signature line from his "reality" TV show was "You're fired!"

Yet he never fired Fauci.

[Bigun]

Considering the Constitution calls for the States to follow the election rules and laws set forth by the several States' legislatures, Trump could have only called for cleaning up that political landscape (by the states themselves), and appointed judges who would enforce the Constitutional constraints that require any changes to come from the legislature, and not some edict by an appointee or executive branch flunky within the State Government. Where the law is breaking down is that changes are made in violation of the Constitution, yet no one is enforcing the Constitution, up to and including SCOTUS in 2020.

That is ALL 100% correct @Smokin Joe what was left of this once great republic was lost on December 11, 2020 and all the crying and teeth gnashing currently going on is purely academic. The USA as we have known it is dead as a post!

[berdie]

No.  Currently she is in 2nd place behind Tshibaka.  But now Democrat Chesbro and Republican Kelly voters get to choose which of the two they prefer.  That's about 12.4% of the total vote.

There's a gap of about 3000 votes between Tshibaka and Murkowski.  Tshibaka would need at least 32% of those Democrat voters to win.  But seeing how Murkowski endorsed the Democrat candidate in the House race, i suspect all the Dems will choose her over Tshibaka.

Thanks, @Hoodat . Although I don't know anything about Tshibaka...I was hoping Murkowski would be able to stay home for a while. I must have read incorrectly.

[Bigun]

Yet he never fired Fauci.

He would have been impeached and removed from office had he done that IMHO. He was walking a tightrope.

[catfish1957]

RCP has called OR-5 for the GOP....  But no one else has.  in my analysis I thought this would break "D". If this is a true call, then number realigns to 219-216 GOP. 

I wonder who runs their electoral desk.  So...too early to celebrate yet, on that seat, but at least one tad of good news to finally get us off that 211 number we have been stuck on for 3 days.

[Hoodat]

Thanks, @Hoodat . Although I don't know anything about Tshibaka...I was hoping Murkowski would be able to stay home for a while. I must have read incorrectly.

Tshibaka is one of us.

It is difficult to make projections since 20% of the vote is still out.  But this is what we have so far:

Kelly Tshibaka (R)
94,138
44.2%

Lisa Murkowski* (R)
91,205
42.8%

Patricia Chesbro (D)
20,265
9.5%

Buzz Kelley (R)
6,244
2.9%


Let's assume that all of Buzz Kelley's voters are anti-Murkowski and choose Tshibaka as second choice.  Then we have:

Kelly Tshibaka (R)
100,382

Lisa Murkowski* (R)
91,205

Patricia Chesbro (D)
20,265


Murkowski would then need 73% of Chesbro voters to have chosen her as second choice over Tshibaka to win.  The likelihood of that happening is high.

These rules were put in place for one reason and one reason only - to help get Murkowski re-elected.  She has never won a majority of Alaska's vote in any Senate race she has ever run.  But Mitch McConnell likes her so much that he openly violated GOP Party rules to fund her campaign.

[roamer_1]

…yet many on our side are still casting blame at Trump for the failed house and senate seats.

Which is true even in the broadest sense.

If we actually had free and fair elections in this country, a radical democrat agenda wouldn’t stand a chance at the ballot box.  We are still a largely conservative country and deserve conservative representatives, but will probably never get it until we fix the broken electoral system.

Which will never, ever happen with a populist movement (Hence Tumpy to blame even in the broadest sense.). The only thing that will fix it is a swelling, ground-up, grassroots movement. For that you need a rank and file, and a long term agenda... Both of which are utterly absent and impossible in populist movements.

Populism is distraction. Shiny sh*t.

TEA Party.
Turn back to Conservatism.

[catfish1957]

Tshibaka is one of us.


These rules were put in place for one reason and one reason only - to help get Murkowski re-elected.  She has never won a majority of Alaska's vote in any Senate race she has ever run.  But Mitch McConnell likes her so much that he openly violated GOP Party rules to fund her campaign.

I've never bothered to try learn AK's stupid electoral system, but from your vantage point, and all this double/triple ranking/runoff  garbage, does Tshibaka win?

[Hoodat]

He would have been impeached and removed from office had he done that IMHO. He was walking a tightrope.

I strongly disagree.  Impeached?  So what.  Removed from office?  Not a chance.

[Hoodat]

I've never bothered to try AK's stupid electoral system, but from your vantage point, and all this double/triple ranking/runoff  garbage, does Tshibaka win?

If more than 73% of Dems ranked Murkowski over Tshibaka, then no.

[Bigun]

I strongly disagree.  Impeached?  So what.  Removed from office?  Not a chance.

I guess we'll never know but I think you are wrong. That is the one thing that would have done it. @Hoodat

[Hoodat]

On the flip side, if all the Begich voters chose Palin as their second choice, she wins.

[catfish1957]

If more than 73% of Dems ranked Murkowski over Tshibaka, then no.

That is insane.  Running a senate campain like a sports MVP award.  Sheesh

[mystery-ak]

Rich Baris "The People's Pundit"
@Peoples_Pundit
·
1h
In Maricopa and Pima, officials are absolutely cooperating with observers (lawyers). Nobody is hiding anything or any part of the process from either party reps.

Everyone should know that.

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1591851024838533125

[corbe]

   IMHO, He can't f*k it up any worse than it will more than likely be.

[Right_in_Virginia]

He would have been impeached and removed from office had he done that IMHO. He was walking a tightrope.

Exactly Bigun  And Mike Pence would have been the star witness for the prosecution.  We know this because Pence refused to do anything about Fauci each time Trump asked.

Remember:  Trump appointed Pence the head of the COVID commission,  Pence brought in Fauci (and Birx) and both reported directly to him.

[Bigun]

Exactly Bigun  And Mike Pence would have been the star witness for the prosecution.  We know this because Pence refused to do anything about Fauci each time Trump asked.

Remember:  Trump appointed Pence the head of the COVID commission,  Pence brought in Fauci (and Birx) and both reported directly to him.

I've said about all I have to say here this morning. After much thought and prayer, I have decided that henceforth whatever energy and resources I have remaining will be spent on returning Texas to her former status as an independent republic.  I wish only the best for all of you here.

[corbe]

[mystery-ak]

Here's Where the House Race Stands With Yet Another GOP Flip
By Nick Arama | 12:30 PM on November 13, 2022

It has seemed that they’re slow-walking the calls for the outstanding races in the House, even when some of them are separated by more than a couple of points. It’s five days after the election and we still don’t know the results for control of the House. I last updated this two days ago. But if there’s anything that needs to be addressed going forward, it’s this concept being pushed that it’s somehow normal to take “days” or even “weeks” to get to a result in the election.

We now have another official call from Decision Desk in the OR-5 race. Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeats Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, 51.4 to 48.86. That’s another Republican flip for the House.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1591818922784952322

According to RealClearPolitics, the current numbers are Republicans, 212 to Democrats, 204. Republicans need 218 for the majority.

These are the races that are still out there to be called. Below, I note if the race has already been called by Decision Desk, it lists the district and then whether the Republican (R) or Democrat (D) is currently leading.

House Races

Alaska
1 D

Arizona
1 D
6 R Ciscomani 51-49 (called by Decision Desk)

California
3 R
9 D
13 R
21 D
22 R
26 D
27 R
34 D
41 R
45 R
47 D
49 D

Colorado
3 R

Maine
2 D

New Mexico
2 D

NY
22 R

OR
6 D

That means that there are still 20 to be decided, with nine of those where the Republicans are leading. Assuming they held all those leads, Republicans would have 221. But for control, they need just six of them.

[catfish1957]

Here's Where the House Race Stands With Yet Another GOP Flip
By Nick Arama | 12:30 PM on November 13, 2022

It has seemed that they’re slow-walking the calls for the outstanding races in the House, even when some of them are separated by more than a couple of points. It’s five days after the election and we still don’t know the results for control of the House. I last updated this two days ago. But if there’s anything that needs to be addressed going forward, it’s this concept being pushed that it’s somehow normal to take “days” or even “weeks” to get to a result in the election.

We now have another official call from Decision Desk in the OR-5 race. Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeats Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, 51.4 to 48.86. That’s another Republican flip for the House.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1591818922784952322

According to RealClearPolitics, the current numbers are Republicans, 212 to Democrats, 204. Republicans need 218 for the majority.

These are the races that are still out there to be called. Below, I note if the race has already been called by Decision Desk, it lists the district and then whether the Republican (R) or Democrat (D) is currently leading.

House Races

Alaska
1 D

Arizona
1 D
6 R Ciscomani 51-49 (called by Decision Desk)

California
3 R
9 D
13 R
21 D
22 R
26 D
27 R
34 D
41 R
45 R
47 D
49 D

Colorado
3 R

Maine
2 D

New Mexico
2 D

NY
22 R

OR
6 D

That means that there are still 20 to be decided, with nine of those where the Republicans are leading. Assuming they held all those leads, Republicans would have 221. But for control, they need just six of them.

That's a +2 from my earlier projection, making it now likely 220- 215.  I am feeling a little better this afternoon about the GOP getting the house.

[mystery-ak]

Avatar

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
·
5h

It’s Mitch McConnell’s fault. Spending money to defeat great Republican candidates instead of backing Blake Masters and others was a big mistake. Giving 4 Trillion Dollars to the Radical Left for the Green New Deal, not Infrastructure, was an even bigger mistake. He blew the Midterms, and everyone despises him and his otherwise lovely wife, Coco Chow!

[DB]

OK. If you say so @DB but I think your never Trump bias is getting involved with your thought processes.

Well, I expected more from you instead of just calling me "never Trump".

[Hoodat]

Avatar

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
·
5h

It’s Mitch McConnell’s fault. Spending money to defeat great Republican candidates instead of backing Blake Masters and others was a big mistake. Giving 4 Trillion Dollars to the Radical Left for the Green New Deal, not Infrastructure, was an even bigger mistake. He blew the Midterms, and everyone despises him and his otherwise lovely wife, Coco Chow!

TRUMP, DONALD J
WASHINGTON DC, DC 20500   WHITE HOUSE   PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES   09-21-2020   $1,000   Mark Kelly (D)


TRUMP, DONALD MR
NEW YORK, NY 10022   THE TRUMP ORGANIZATION   PRESIDENT   05-16-2013   $2,600   Mitch McConnell (R)