Mid-term Election 2022 Live Thread – Welcome to the Party Pal!

[corbe]

   @Bigun
   
    Granted covid was occupying much of his time in the runup to his failed reelection. 
    But to answer your question, appointing McDaniel to head the RNC and Priebus (last RNC chair) as his first CoS, endorsing McConnell AND McCarthy in their last election. 
    His BS detector is broken!

[Hoodat]

In the days ahead, I implore each of you to scrub the word 'fraud' from your vocabulary.  It is a literary nuance, but one that has far reaching percussions in the legal community.

'Fraud' signifies intent.  And unless intent can be proved, the term 'fraud' will continue to be bounced from every courtroom in America.  Instead, use the word 'illegal'  it will be much easier to bring a case saying the law was not followed than to bring one where the Dems committed election fraud.  Thanks.

[Bigun]

He could have built bridges between factions instead of burning them to the ground, over and over. How many times did he say he was going to primary various conservatives. From Cruz to the freedom caucus members and beyond. He didn't win people over if they didn't agree, he threatened to destroy them instead.

I'm fully cognizant of Trump's personality flaws @DB my question to @corbe and now you remains.

What could Trump could have done solely on his own to fix the illegal ballots problem in some states?

[Hoodat]

   @Bigun
   
    Granted covid was occupying much of his time in the runup to his failed reelection. 
    But to answer your question, appointing McDaniel to head the RNC and Priebus (last RNC chair) as his first CoS, endorsing McConnell AND McCarthy in their last election. 
    His BS detector is broken!

And now endorsing RSCC chair Rick Scott to replace McConnell, immediately following Scott's abysmal performance in the 2022 Senate elections.

[Bigun]

   @Bigun
   
    Granted covid was occupying much of his time in the runup to his failed reelection. 
    But to answer your question, appointing McDaniel to head the RNC and Priebus (last RNC chair) as his first CoS, endorsing McConnell AND McCarthy in their last election. 
    His BS detector is broken!

Sorry @corbe but that is not responsive to the specific question I asked you.

[aligncare]

It's not so much of people blaming Trump for what happened, but more of Trump only caring about Trump in the midst of this is happening.

Alarms are sounding and red lights are flashing in America, we don’t have time for pretense.  Governor DeSantis is being used by corporate media (read as establishment, swamp, powers that be, whichever you prefer) to fracture the MAGA movement and Trump knows this.

Knocking out a potential contender is never pretty, both sides do it in political contests.  Besides, I don’t think using ‘DeSanctimonious’ constitutes a knockout blow or seems particularly out of bounds based on some of DeSantis’ political ads.

[corbe]

    @Bigun we just witnessed the cumulative damage those 3 have done to the GOP brand in an election which, historically, should have been a cakewalk.   

[Right_in_Virginia]

It's not so much of people blaming Trump for what happened, but more of Trump only caring about Trump in the midst of this is happening.

Here's     another idea for a poster to add to your "Stupid Should Hurt" collection.

Trump is the only Republican leader sounding clarion calls for election reforms, citing AZ and NV, and for McConnell's immediate replacement.

[Hoodat]

Alarms are sounding and red lights are flashing in America, we don’t have time for pretense.  Governor DeSantis is being used by corporate media (read as establishment, swamp, powers that be, whichever you prefer) to fracture the MAGA movement and Trump knows this.

I vehemently disagree.  DeSantis could care less about Trump.

Knocking out a potential contender is never pretty, both sides do it in political contests.

There's only one side here.  Trump, Trump, Trump.

Besides, I don’t think using ‘DeSanctimonious’ constitutes a knockout blow or seems particularly out of bounds based on some of DeSantis’ political ads.

No, it is simply being disrespectful for no reason.  It is petty, mean-spirited conceit.

[Bigun]

    @Bigun we just witnessed the cumulative damage those 3 have done to the GOP brand in an election which, historically, should have been a cakewalk.   

OK @corbe It's apparent that you aren't going to answer my question so I'll just tell you that there was NOTHING President Trump could have done on his own to address the ballot problems we have in certain states!

[DB]

I'm fully cognizant of Trump's personality flaws @DB my question to @corbe and now you remains.

What could Trump could have done solely on his own to fix the illegal ballots problem in some states?

Regarding elections after he was out of office, realistically probably not much. While in office he could have pushed a whole lot harder at stopping the endless lockdowns that started with him and the excuses that followed for mail in ballots. In short, he could have actually led instead of followed his "experts".

[Bigun]

Regarding elections after he was out of office, realistically probably not much. While in office he could have pushed a whole lot harder at stopping the endless lockdowns that started with him and the excuses that followed for mail in ballots. In short, he could have actually led instead of followed his "experts".

OK. If you say so @DB but I think your never Trump bias is getting involved with your thought processes.

[Smokin Joe]

I know, right? I didn't get it at first. I saw muck boots on a governor and got a kinda "There's a guy, right in it, helping out" vibe...

Didn't even occur to me that muck boots might be thought a joke... Not to mention their color, which I hardly noticed in passing.

This is a laugh riot.

Well, they are awful clean for muck boots...

[catfish1957]

Updated 11:30 a.m.

@mystery-ak

I've done a district - county by county turnout review, and drill down ....  this isn't ironclad method but where the votes are outstanding, and % ballot completion should give a fair estimate, of how the race breaks-


The remaining races include:

Alaska's at-large Congressional District: Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Sarah Palin. Stupid ranking runoff

Arizona:
AZ-01 with Democrat Jevin Hodge and Republican Rep. David Schweikert. 50.4-49.6

3K votes down with 32 k theo. votes left.  One county only -Maricopa- Strong advantage Dem.

AZ-06 with Democrat Kirsten Engel and Republican Juan Ciscomani. 50.2-49.8

3/4 of the outstanding vote is in heavily dim leaning Pima County-  I think this one goes to the dems. Advantage Dem



California:
CA-03 with Democrat Kermit Jones and Republican Kevin Kiley. 53.0-47.0

District has several GOP leaning counties that have plenty of cushion. GOP Win

CA-09 with Democrat Rep. Josh Harder and Republican Tom Patti. 56.3-43.7

Overwhelming percentage of voter highly favors the Dems.  Easy hold.  Dem Win

CA-13 with Democrat Adam Gray and Republican John Duarte. 50.1-49.9

Counties slow in counting are significantly Dim in config so far.  Democratic Win


CA-21 with Democrat Rep. Jim Costa and Republican Michael Maher 54.6-45.4

Liberal Fresno undercounted of the two counties.  Dems bigly. Democratic Win


CA-22 with Democrat Rudy Salas and Republican Rep. David Valadao 52.5-47.5

County make up a distribution is a near wash, with slight slight edgeto dims  This one is an utter tossup...   But with near 3K lead in hand?  GOP Win

CA-27 with Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Rep. Mike Garcia 55.4-44.6

Unless there are very dissimilar precints within this district, this one should have been already called. GOP Win

CA-41 with Democrat Will Rollins and Republican Rep. Ken Calvert 50.7-49.3

Another one that will rely on which precint ideology trends-  Razor close, but based on present lead- GOP Win

CA-45 with Democrat Jay Chen and Republican Rep. Michelle Steel 53.8-46.2

Conservative Orange County should prevail- GOP Win

CA-47 with Democrat Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Scott Baugh 51.3-48.7

Nothing to stop the dem loss here.  Dem win
CA-49 with Democrat Rep. Mike Levin and Republican Brian Maryott 52.3-47.7

Big  Lead, Blue district.  Dem Win

.

Colorado:
CO-03 with Democrat Adam Frisch and Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert 50.2-49.8

All the vote is in basically (>99%) This is Boebert unless the dims find out some way to steal, like recount-  GOP Win

CO-08 with Democrat Yadira Caraveo and Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer 48.4-47.7

County votes missing favors the GOP but with a 2k lead, this is going to be razor close. Coin flip..  Dem Hold

Maine:
ME-02 with Democrat Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Bruce Poliquin 49.2-43.9

2 counties who I have no idea aligns show no votes.  With the big lead otherwise . A no doubter.....   Dem Win

New Mexico:
NM-02 with Democrat Vasquez v. GOP Herrell- 50.3-49.7

Missing counted votes are from heavily blue counties. Easy blue.  Dem win.


New York:
NY-22 with Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams 50.7-49.3

No reason this one should be called.  94%vote in GOP Win

Oregon:
OR-05 with Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer 51.1-48.8

Most votes outstanding are from Blue leaning Clackamas, and otherwise slight otherwise edge to the dims Dems Win

OR-06 with Democrat Andrea Salinas and Republican Mike Erickson 49.7-48.0

Dims have heavy advantage in counties that have reported less.  This lead should widen. Dems win



Present Count GOP 211 (for over 48 hrs.) Dem. 204


Count based on my analysis and projection

GOP 218 Dem. 217

@mystery-ak

[Hoodat]

Here's     another idea for a poster to add to your "Stupid Should Hurt" collection.

Trump is the only Republican leader sounding clarion calls for election reforms, citing AZ and NV

Absolutely positively 100% false.  Also, it wasn't until after the 2020 election that Trump even noticed State GOP politics.  He was instrumental in destroying local control of State Parties in 2016.  Trump was a great ally for the RNC, perhaps their greatest.

and for McConnell's immediate replacement.

lol, Trump endorsed McConnell twice.  He even saved McConnell from getting primaried in 2014.  In fact, the first time he even mentioned any opposition to McConnell was January 2021, and that is only because it affected Trump, Trump, Trump.  For four years, McConnell was screwing over the entire country, but Trump didn't never once took notice.

Yet now he want's Rick Scott to replace him.  Rick Scott.  RSCC chair Rick Scott.  And the only reason he named Scott was to slight DeSantis.  Not because Scott will stop the Democrats or that Scott did a good job at helping Republicans take control of the Senate (his only job for the last two years).

[Bigun]

Considering his Svengali like hold on the brain dead base maybe he could have endorsed better candidates?

The candidates he endorsed is NOT the problem! The PROBLEM is that election laws in some states are being ignored at will! @Weird Tolkienish Figure

[Right_in_Virginia]

Has the GOP establishment done enough yet to prove they will happily accept defeat  --- indeed, promote it ---- for the majority of Republican voters to believe it?  The establishment WILL get what it wants, one way or the other.  "Uniparty"  is more than clever, it's reality.

From time to time, a Briefer will post how upset he or she still is over how successful the establishment was in crushing the Tea Party. What does anyone truly think is going on with MAGA?  They will accept total defeat in 2024 if MAGA ends with it.

Any Republican thrown against Trump will be approved by McConnell and Ryan.  The candidate will sign on the dotted line in return for what McConnell/Ryan can provide:  Congressional support, battles defined by and won in the media, and money ---- buckets and buckets of money.

The Repubican candidate given the mantle "can win" against Trump by the GOP establishment will be the surrogate for Mitch McConnell.

We need to stop jumping from emotional cue to emotional cue like trained seals and focus on our actual choice:  Mitch McConnell or Donald Trump.  Assuming R's win in 2024, which of these two do we prefer sits behind the Resolute desk?

[Hoodat]

Count based on my analysis and projection

GOP 218 Dem. 217

Yeah, that's what I came up with, too.  Any race where the Republican candidate is leading by less than 2 points, I gave it to the Dems.

[Hoodat]

Has the GOP establishment done enough yet to prove they will happily accept defeat  --- indeed, promote it ---- for the majority of Republican voters to believe it?  The establishment WILL get what it wants, one way or the other.  "Uniparty"  is more than clever, it's reality.

And because of the rules changes at the 2016 RNC Convention that Trump delegates pushed through, it is now impossible for any grass roots movement to remove them.  This battle was lost in 2016.  And reappointing Ronna McDaniel as RNC chair for another 4 years certainly didn't help.  Guess who did that?

[Hoodat]

We need to stop jumping from emotional cue to emotional cue like trained seals and focus on our actual choice:  Mitch McConnell or Donald Trump.  Which of these two do we prefer sits behind the Resolute desk?

See:  Logical Fallacies - False Dilemma

I'll take DeSantis, or Cruz, or Roem, or Martinez over either of these.

[Smokin Joe]

   @Bigun
   
    Granted covid was occupying much of his time in the runup to his failed reelection. 
    But to answer your question, appointing McDaniel to head the RNC and Priebus (last RNC chair) as his first CoS, endorsing McConnell AND McCarthy in their last election. 
    His BS detector is broken!

His signature line from his "reality" TV show was "You're fired!"

If you have to fire that many people, it's time to really take a serious look at your hiring practices. Unfortunately, Trump hired folks who were recommended by the swamp GOPe, and long term staffers who were not about to crap in their mess kits by taking down the swamp.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Benny Johnson
@bennyjohnson

Our current class of Republican “Leaders” are career DC corporatists who would rather have Democrats in total control of our Government than have a few MAGA/America First Republicans in their majority.

If you need evidence look at the 2022 midterm results.

This is betrayal.


11:32 PM · Nov 12, 2022 ·Twitter for iPhone

[Bigun]

His signature line from his "reality" TV show was "You're fired!"

If you have to fire that many people, it's time to really take a serious look at your hiring practices. Unfortunately, Trump hired folks who were recommended by the swamp GOPe, and long term staffers who were not about to crap in their mess kits by taking down the swamp.

Most of the people Trump hired were forced on him by the GOPe as they had to get Senate approval in order to serve.

[Bigun]

Benny Johnson
@bennyjohnson

Our current class of Republican “Leaders” are career DC corporatists who would rather have Democrats in total control of our Government than have a few MAGA/America First Republicans in their majority.

If you need evidence look at the 2022 midterm results.

This is betrayal.


11:32 PM · Nov 12, 2022 ·Twitter for iPhone

That is just plain FACT!

[Hoodat]

Benny Johnson
@bennyjohnson

Our current class of Republican “Leaders” are career DC corporatists who would rather have Democrats in total control of our Government than have a few MAGA/America First Republicans in their majority.

If you need evidence look at the 2022 midterm results.

This is betrayal.


11:32 PM · Nov 12, 2022 ·Twitter for iPhone

Us Cruz supporters were saying this back in 2015 and 2016 fighting it out at each State convention while Trump was filling his delegate slots with DC corporatists proxies and cutting deals with the Priebus cabal.