Polls Suddenly Looking Different Now That Trump Sealed the Deal?

[Smokin Joe]

YOU don't know what you are talking about @LMAO ! I don't dismiss just the ones I don't like, I dismiss ALL of them if they are for public consumption. They are to influence opinions, not measure them.

They are there to set the point spread. You can get any result you want, depending on how the questions are phrased and the demographics of the sample.

[Sighlass]

Polls on two of the most unpopular people in politics... I expect fluctuation.

[LMAO]

Polls on two of the most unpopular people in politics... I expect fluctuation.

These polls will be all over the place before Nov

[Hoodat]

I'd take Reagan with Alzheimer's over either of these 2 yahoo's.

I would take Ann Coulter with chlamydia over these two.

[roamer_1]

I would take Ann Coulter with chlamydia over these two.

Well alright... But she'd still have to eat a few hamburgers, jussayin. 

[Hoodat]

When Coulter and Chris Christie stand next to each other, they look like the number 10.

[cato potatoe]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/01/25/susquehanna_polls_james_lee_i_never_believed_polls_showing_trump_leading_in_pennsylvania.html

The local pollster explains why he still trails Biden in Pennsylvania: Little appeal in the Philadelphia suburbs, while struggling to consolidate GOP voters elsewhere.

[the OlLine Rebel]

When Coulter and Chris Christie stand next to each other, they look like the number 10.

ROFL

[Mesaclone]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Trump is +6.2% in the RCP average (vs Biden/West/RFK/Stein). In 2020 at this time it was Biden +4%

Now, polls are not predictive...so much could and will change. But that does not change the fact that President Trump has managed a +10 swing in his favor. That's not just significant, its a paradigm shift. And for the record, those thinking this is some sort of Dem op to help Trump in the primary...c'mon, man. That's ridiculous.

Agree with the man or not, he is in a vastly better position at this point than he was in 2020 OR in 2016.

[DB]

More red wave...

[Mesaclone]

More red wave...

As I said, polls are not predictive...especially this far out. Nor can they effectively measure the impact of ballot harvesting and other shenanigans that will/are being deployed by Dems.

All that said, I'd sure prefer being +10 from where Trump was in 2020 than not.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

More red wave...

Maybe maybe not. It's possible that people just hate Biden rather than just hate the entirety of the Democrat Party. As amazing as that sounds to me. In today's environment anybody confidently predicting anything is pretty foolish. Still, the election as of now looks like it's trump's to lose to me.

[Fishrrman]

Mesa observes:
"Now, polls are not predictive...so much could and will change. But that does not change the fact that President Trump has managed a +10 swing in his favor. That's not just significant, its a paradigm shift."

The exploding border crisis and the confrontation between Texas and the fedcoats has changed everything.

This issue isn't going away in the next few months.
Au contraire, it's going to fester, and grow from a simmer to a boil.

Mr. Trump can ride this to victory -- IF he grows bold enough to call spades, spades. Many -- if not most -- white Americans are fed up, and I reckon at least some blacks and long-time Hispanic-Americans are, as well.

Call them out on it, Mr. Trump!
Even if they put the moose on their ballot, it may not be enough...

[Mesaclone]

Mesa observes:
"Now, polls are not predictive...so much could and will change. But that does not change the fact that President Trump has managed a +10 swing in his favor. That's not just significant, its a paradigm shift."

The exploding border crisis and the confrontation between Texas and the fedcoats has changed everything.

This issue isn't going away in the next few months.
Au contraire, it's going to fester, and grow from a simmer to a boil.

Mr. Trump can ride this to victory -- IF he grows bold enough to call spades, spades. Many -- if not most -- white Americans are fed up, and I reckon at least some blacks and long-time Hispanic-Americans are, as well.

Call them out on it, Mr. Trump!
Even if they put the moose on their ballot, it may not be enough...

I agree that the Border issue is shaping the race right now...I also know the Left will be doing everything it can to change the subject. Which is why I'm so in love with Governor Abbot right now...he's damn determined to keep this issue front and center. As it should be.

[LMAO]

More red wave...

Yep

And all the polls were looking very favorable for Republican candidates until Biden gave that “MAGA Republican” speech weeks before the election

I didn’t think it would work at the time. But it worked very well and has worked still

Of course, at some point, that well runs dry

[Mesaclone]

Yep

And all the polls were looking very favorable for Republican candidates until Biden gave that “MAGA Republican” speech weeks before the election

I didn’t think it would work at the time. But it worked very well and has worked still

Of course, at some point, that well runs dry

Biden led Trump in the polls from post to post in 2020. In 2023-24 that is entirely NOT what’s happening.

[LMAO]

Biden led Trump in the polls from post to post in 2020. In 2023-24 that is entirely NOT what’s happening.

I’m talking about the 2022 midterms. Biden has successfully defined Trump and his supporters and that’s why he’s been able to defeat them in 2022 and 2023

[Mesaclone]

I’m talking about the 2022 midterms. Biden has successfully defined Trump and his supporters and that’s why he’s been able to defeat them in 2022 and 2023

Comparing mid-terms to Presidential election years is not particularly useful. Too many different variables so not useful as a predictive tool. I'll agree that the Left's ability to "define Trump and his supporters" is a valid concern...no denying that. However, with immigration dominating the national debate there's a very real potential to turn that "definition" into a positive...I think even his enemies would admit that Trump is going to shut down this crisis on our border. The Lefties think its because he's a tyrant...but I think most moderates/independents are leaning towards "it takes a Trump to fix this problem" and they know he'd be in for 4 years and then gone.

Independents are not going to vote for a continuation of this influx of 2 million illegals per year...and that's a BIG factor that was quite minimal in the 2022 races.

[LMAO]

Comparing mid-terms to Presidential election years is not particularly useful. Too many different variables so not useful as a predictive tool. I'll agree that the Left's ability to "define Trump and his supporters" is a valid concern...no denying that. However, with immigration dominating the national debate there's a very real potential to turn that "definition" into a positive...I think even his enemies would admit that Trump is going to shut down this crisis on our border. The Lefties think its because he's a tyrant...but I think most moderates/independents are leaning towards "it takes a Trump to fix this problem" and they know he'd be in for 4 years and then gone.

Independents are not going to vote for a continuation of this influx of 2 million illegals per year...and that's a BIG factor that was quite minimal in the 2022 races.

I do agree that if the border becomes a dominant issue amongst general election voters, and even enough Democrats, that would definitely work in Trump’s favor. But a lot’s gonna happen between now and November.  John Kerry  was leading in the polls this time in 2004

However, Trump has a way of taking any winning issue and ruining it with his antics. The advantage for Donald Trump would be if  enough Democrats become dissatisfied with Biden that they choose to either vote for a third-party candidate or stay home like they did in 2016.

But the border is absolutely the issue that there is a wide chasm between him and Biden. Their attempt to claim that they inherited this border from Trump is simply not selling

[Mesaclone]

I do agree that if the border becomes a dominant issue amongst general election voters, and even enough Democrats, that would definitely work in Trump’s favor. But a lot’s gonna happen between now and November.  John Kerry  was leading in the polls this time in 2004

However, Trump has a way of taking any winning issue and ruining it with his antics. The advantage for Donald Trump would be if  enough Democrats become dissatisfied with Biden that they choose to either vote for a third-party candidate or stay home like they did in 2016.

But the border is absolutely the issue that there is a wide chasm between him and Biden. Their attempt to claim that they inherited this border from Trump is simply not selling

The Big Secret is this...if Biden decided to shut down the border aggressively over the next few months...he wins in a landslide. Fortunately, he and the Dems are too ideologically committed to keeping it wide open...and I think that's going to really cost them.

[libertybele]

The Big Secret is this...if Biden decided to shut down the border aggressively over the next few months...he wins in a landslide. Fortunately, he and the Dems are too ideologically committed to keeping it wide open...and I think that's going to really cost them.

Not so much a secret but sheer logic. People are now fully aware of the crisis at the border; especially those who have been directly affected by ILLEGALS in their towns or nearby; those who have had their children moved out of a school to house them, hotels overwhelmed, streets plagued with filth, etc.

All evil Joe has to do is finish building the wall, arm it, start deporting and declare a moratorium on immigration into this country.  The DEMS would win be a landslide.

Either way the DEMS will win; granting amnesty with voting rights to ILLEGALS who have poured into this country will make it mathematically impossible to seat another GOP.

Personally I don't think Trump stands a chance.  As I have stated several times, the DEMS are not going to let him anywhere near the WH again.  They intend to retain their power.

[Mesaclone]

Not so much a secret but sheer logic. People are now fully aware of the crisis at the border; especially those who have been directly affected by ILLEGALS in their towns or nearby; those who have had their children moved out of a school to house them, hotels overwhelmed, streets plagued with filth, etc.

All evil Joe has to do is finish building the wall, arm it, start deporting and declare a moratorium on immigration into this country.  The DEMS would win be a landslide.

Either way the DEMS will win; granting amnesty with voting rights to ILLEGALS who have poured into this country will make it mathematically impossible to seat another GOP.

Personally I don't think Trump stands a chance.  As I have stated several times, the DEMS are not going to let him anywhere near the WH again.  They intend to retain their power.

I don't know who will win. It will be a very hard fight against some challenging obstacles. But the money in Vegas right now is on Trump, and my amateur look at the polling and issue data leads me to believe its at least a 50/50 proposition. And that's ASSUMING the Dems will cheat again. By no means should any Conservative believe Biden has this thing locked up...that's just pessimism and defeatism kicking in.

[Mesaclone]

You fail to factor in the absolute hate for Trump out there.

You are right, statistics don't measure the hate that some voters feel...but the polls say what they say. Frankly, I could care less who loves or hates the man...such people are not persuadable either way and their view is factored into the current polling. Right now the polls say that more people want to vote Trump than Biden, but 9 months is an ice age in political time.

[libertybele]

You are right, statistics don't measure the hate that some voters feel...but the polls say what they say. Frankly, I could care less who loves or hates the man...such people are not persuadable either way and their view is factored into the current polling. Right now the polls say that more people want to vote Trump than Biden, but 9 months is an ice age in political time.

Polls?  Polls aren't accurate and haven't been in awhile.  Polls are swayed to produce an outcome that those polling want to fulfill an agenda.

[libertybele]

I don't know who will win. It will be a very hard fight against some challenging obstacles. But the money in Vegas right now is on Trump, and my amateur look at the polling and issue data leads me to believe its at least a 50/50 proposition. And that's ASSUMING the Dems will cheat again. By no means should any Conservative believe Biden has this thing locked up...that's just pessimism and defeatism kicking in.

I would also consider the fact that it is doubtful (unless the DEMS have cheating so down pat) that they'll have Joe run again.  I believe that they will insert a strong candidate for president at the last minute giving Trump and his campaign little time to create any sort of doubt about the new, younger, more articulate DEM candidate.  Just my opinion.