Polls Suddenly Looking Different Now That Trump Sealed the Deal?

[Timber Rattler]

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/01/24/polls-suddenly-looking-different-now-that-trump-sealed-the-deal-n606901

One poll does not a trend make.

But this poll jumped off the page (screen) when I saw it.

New PA Poll:  SP&R today releases its latest Pa poll testing general election for POTUS match up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:

Biden, 46.8%
Trump, 39.3%
Not Sure, 7.6%
Other, 5.6%

Sample size 745 LV; Field Dates 1/15-1/21/24. MOE +/-3.7%.



Yep. Susquehanna shows President Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by more than 7 points, at least if the election were held today.

In 2020 the election was decided by 1 point, and that was before the past 3 years of failures have driven Joe Biden’s approval rating into the toilet.

So what’s going on? Is this a bad poll? A biased poll? An outlier–even pollsters will tell you that 1 out of 5 polls are just wrong, and the margin of error is almost 4%.

But geez, that is a shocking poll.

I checked on the reliability of Susquehanna as a pollster at RealClearPolitics, and it rates reasonably highly and most of its errors favor Republicans. The average divergence from the final election results is not great, but not awful at 2.6%–within the MoE. That’s less than half the error rate of Rassmussen.

EXCERPT

Trumpers are going to get what they wished for...good and hard!

[kevindavis007]

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/01/24/polls-suddenly-looking-different-now-that-trump-sealed-the-deal-n606901

EXCERPT

Trumpers are going to get what they wished for...good and hard!

They will blame voter fraud..

[DB]

One man's ego sticking his finger in the eye of enemies makes trashing the country all worthwhile apparently...

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

You may be right but Trump winning PA was always a long shot.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Clarity ... Biden's enthusiasm gap may come back to bite him.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

When and if this changes then it will be time to worry.

[Timber Rattler]

You may be right but Trump winning PA was always a long shot.

Correct...there are 800,000 more registered Democrats in the Commonwealth than Republicans, concentrated in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and they vote!

[DB]

Clarity ... Biden's enthusiasm gap may come back to bite him.

There was no enthusiasm for Biden in 2020.

[Bigun]

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/01/24/polls-suddenly-looking-different-now-that-trump-sealed-the-deal-n606901

I pay zero attention to push polls, and neither should you.

[unite for individuality]

Susquehanna shows President Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by more than 7 points, at least if the election were held today.

This is JANUARY. Polls this far in advance are ususally pretty meaningless.
Poll numbers move A LOT during the year.

Remember, in JUNE 1992, Bill Clinton was polling in SINGLE DIGITS
against George Bush!

[LMAO]

This is JANUARY. Polls this far in advance are ususally pretty meaningless.
Poll numbers move A LOT during the year.

Remember, in JUNE 1992, Bill Clinton was polling in SINGLE DIGITS
against George Bush!

Bill Clinton was also unknown to the electorate in June 1992

Trump is well known

[Bigun]

Pollsters get paid to produce the results their clients want. Period! End of story!

[LMAO]

Pollsters get paid to produce the results their clients want. Period! End of story!

No

They are a reflection of what a group of people feel  about  a particular moment about a person or an issue

Any presidential polls right now are a reflection of how that group of people feel about a candidate at this particular moment in time

You can’t just dismiss polls that you don’t like

[unite for individuality]

   Quote from: Bigun on Today at 03:54:20 pm
Pollsters get paid to produce the results their clients want. Period! End of story!
   Quote

No

They are a reflection of what a group of people feel  about  a particular moment about a person or an issue

Any presidential polls right now are a reflection of how that group of people feel about a candidate at this particular moment in time

You can’t just dismiss polls that you don’t like

The polls were famously wrong in 1980 and 2016.
But they turned out to be right in 2012.

Polls are supposed to reduce uncertainty,
but it turns out that they have plenty of uncertainty of their own!

[kevindavis007]

The polls were famously wrong in 1980 and 2016.
But they turned out to be right in 2012.

Polls are supposed to reduce uncertainty,
but it turns out that they have plenty of uncertainty of their own!

2016 WAS A FLUKE!

[LMAO]

2016 WAS A FLUKE!

Millions of Democrats stayed home along with the high negatives of Hillary Clinton and the novelty of Donald Trump being new to the political scene

Even with all that in his favor, he got less than 50% of the vote, and only one through the electoral college

Polls right now are a little premature. And any polls taken in January does not necessarily reflect what will happen in November

But Donald Trump is known to the public at large and he’s probably maxed out his level of support. Hoping that the economy crashes, and stating that publicly probably doesn’t endear himself to the American voter.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Time to worry has already passed.  We are stuck with Biden for another 4 years.  The biggest question is if Trump will cost us the House and Senate, which is VERY likely.

 

Really need to have control of either the House or the Senate, or we're screwed.

[libertybele]

Millions of Democrats stayed home along with the high negatives of Hillary Clinton and the novelty of Donald Trump being new to the political scene

Even with all that in his favor, he got less than 50% of the vote, and only one through the electoral college

Polls right now are a little premature. And any polls taken in January does not necessarily reflect what will happen in November

But Donald Trump is known to the public at large and he’s probably maxed out his level of support. Hoping that the economy crashes, and stating that publicly probably doesn’t endear himself to the American voter.

DJT needs to stay on the course of pointing out why conservatism (yes, I know that he isn't) works and liberalism doesn't.  Everyone can see that Joe is evil and his policies are disastrous.  Trump needs to tell this country what he is going to do to put us on a path forward. He needs to start showing leadership and stop the attacks, childish name calling and rants.  Take a vacation to relieve some mental stress.

He has 91 felonies against him which is a tremendous amount of baggage. 

IF he should be unable to serve does he have to give his delegates to Haley who stayed in the race longer than DeSantis?  I honestly don't know how that works. Anyone???

[LMAO]

DJT needs to stay on the course of pointing out why conservatism (yes, I know that he isn't) works and liberalism doesn't.  Everyone can see that Joe is evil and his policies are disastrous.  Trump needs to tell this country what he is going to do to put us on a path forward. He needs to start showing leadership and stop the attacks, childish name calling and rants.  Take a vacation to relieve some mental stress.

He’s already doing none of the above. He’s promising retribution on behalf of his base, pushing more spending, lashing out at anybody who would give him that advice, promising more tariffs, more wrongheaded economic policies in a time when with debt to GDP ratio is over 120% and inflation is still raging

We have one of his most dedicated sycophants on another thread who  believes that the good tax paying people of Florida should have to pay for Trump’s legal bills. That is not conservatism

[the OlLine Rebel]

Time to worry has already passed.  We are stuck with Biden for another 4 years.  The biggest question is if Trump will cost us the House and Senate, which is VERY likely.

Don’t worry.  One or the other or both could die in this time period.

Yeah, age is a concern.

Remember how much rancor there was over Reagan’s age?  As he was LEAVING?

[Hoodat]

Really need to have control of either the House or the Senate, or we're screwed.

Trump supporters don't care about keeping either.  All that matters is Trump's ego getting stroked.

[Hoodat]

In case there's any question about who the GOP Establishment is backing:

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1750012829367697522

[kevindavis007]

DJT needs to stay on the course of pointing out why conservatism (yes, I know that he isn't) works and liberalism doesn't.  Everyone can see that Joe is evil and his policies are disastrous.  Trump needs to tell this country what he is going to do to put us on a path forward. He needs to start showing leadership and stop the attacks, childish name calling and rants.  Take a vacation to relieve some mental stress.

He has 91 felonies against him which is a tremendous amount of baggage. 

IF he should be unable to serve does he have to give his delegates to Haley who stayed in the race longer than DeSantis?  I honestly don't know how that works. Anyone???

He has no conservative values! He is a Populist! Populism is not a conservative value!

[libertybele]

Haley does need to drop out, so she won't be a factor when Trump is replaced at the RNC, due to legal issues (I can always dream).

Ronna needs to get off of her butt and start working on election and ballot integrity.

Haley has stated that she will continue on to Super Tuesday in March.

[cato potatoe]

In case there's any question about who the GOP Establishment is backing:

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1750012829367697522

After two contests in relatively small states, where the incumbent struggled to reach 50%? 

This chick should have been sacked after the midterms.  The only reason she stays is because Trump wants her there.  But don’t call the GOP a cult, whatever you do …