Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2025
Excerpts:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accurately stated that the Kremlin's objective in Ukraine is to politically control all of Ukraine rather than to seize select Ukrainian territories such as Donetsk Oblast. Lavrov claimed in a televised interview on August 19 that the Kremlin has “never talked about the need to seize any territories” from Ukraine and that Russia's goal was not to seize Crimea, Donbas, or other areas of Ukraine.
The claim seems bizarre in the context of Russia's repeated demands that Ukraine and the West recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory, including territory Russian forces do not control. It reflects the deeper Russian aims in Ukraine, however, quite accurately. Lavrov reiterated that Russia's war objectives concern “protecting” the people in Ukraine from the Ukrainian government, which the Kremlin falsely portrays as illegitimate and oppressive.
Lavrov’s description of the Kremlin's aim to “protect” Ukrainians from their own government reflects the fact that the Kremlin seeks to remove the democratically elected Ukrainian government and replace it with a pro-Russian government that would allow the Kremlin to control Ukraine without needing to fight for physical control over territory or annex it.
Lavrov notably made demands during the interview that reject Ukraine's sovereignty including that Ukraine repeal laws regarding language and religion that are the proper concern only of the government of a sovereign state. Lavrov stated explicitly “there can be no talk of any long-term [peace] agreements” with Ukraine “without respect” for Russia's security and the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine, as “these are the reasons that must be urgently eliminated in the context of a settlement.”
The Kremlin's continued insistence on controlling Ukrainian domestic affairs reflects the arguments made by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his 2021 essay arguing that Ukraine should not exist independently of Russia.
Lavrov’s August 19 statement further emphasizes the Kremlin's broader objective of obtaining full political control over Ukraine before Russia ends its war ... Kremlin officials have consistently reiterated throughout the war and negotiations process that Russia will achieve these war aims either militarily or diplomatically in line with Lavrov’s August 19 statements. [ TACO Trump, Red Rubio, Witless Wit Cougher, et al seem to be ensuring the fruition of these stated objectives ].
Russia launched the full-scale invasion in 2022 after failing to secure control over Ukraine by other means. Russia has long attempted to exert control over former Soviet states through continuing cognitive warfare efforts ...
Russia similarly seeks to exert influence over the internal governance of other former Soviet countries, including NATO states, effectively denying their sovereignty and setting conditions to threaten their independent governance. Russian officials are setting informational conditions to justify exerting control over former Soviet states, including NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, by denying the legality of the collapse of the Soviet Union ...
Lavrov implicitly rejected suggestions that Russia might accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Lavrov stated on August 19 that Russia and Ukraine cannot make any long-term agreements that do not take into account Russia's “security interests,” very likely referring to Russia's demand for Ukrainian “neutrality.”
Russian officials have long insisted on Ukrainian neutrality and non-alignment with NATO as a precondition to negotiations, and Russia is likely setting information space conditions to oppose Western security guarantees for Ukraine ...
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19-2025
