Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2025
Excerpts:
It is unclear what Putin offered in his meeting with Trump beyond reiterating his demand for Donetsk Oblast and offering a limited ceasefire with no known time-frame in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov stated on August 16, after the Alaska Summit, that he did not know when Trump and Putin would meet again and that the subject of a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump, and Zelensky has not been discussed.
Ravid reported that a source briefed on Trump's talks with Putin stated that Putin proposed to freeze the frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts in exchange for Ukraine's withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast and that the US delegation perceived that Putin is open to negotiations regarding Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.
Ravid reported that Putin requested that the United States recognize “these four oblasts” (presumably Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, although the reporting is not clear) and occupied Crimea as Russian. The Financial Times (FT) reported, citing 4 sources with direct knowledge of the talks, that Putin demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a precondition for ending Russia's war in Ukraine.
3 of the sources told FT that Putin offered to freeze the frontline in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and not to launch new attacks to seize additional territory ( it is not clear if he meant in those 2 oblasts or elsewhere ), in exchange for Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Senior Russian officials and most sources speaking to Western media did not indicate that Putin mentioned Sumy or Kharkiv oblasts, which is notable because Russian forces are also conducting offensive operations in these regions. Newsmax White House correspondent Mike Carter reported on August 15, citing unspecified sources, that Putin dropped his objections to teaching the Ukrainian language in Ukraine and NATO states providing security guarantees to Ukraine that would enable NATO states to defend Ukraine if Russia violates any agreement ...
Putin's demand for all of Donetsk Oblast is the most clear and consistent demand coming out of the Alaska Summit ... A former senior Kremlin official suggested to FT that Putin is prepared to compromise on other issues, including territory, if Putin is satisfied that an agreement addresses the “root causes” of the war. The Kremlin has repeatedly defined root causes as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers and has repeatedly invoked this phrase as shorthand for Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia and the resumption of Russian control over Ukraine.
Putin's demand that any agreement address these “root causes” is not a compromise from his original war aims, and reports that Putin “compromised” on issues such as Ukraine's ability to teach its own language in its own country are designed to obfuscate Putin's actual unwillingness to compromise.
Putin's reported rejection of a full ceasefire in Ukraine and the ongoing Russian offensives in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts indicate that Putin intends to continue his war in Ukraine while negotiations are ongoing - a point that Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev welcomed ... The Kremlin appears to have successfully narrowed discussions of the war in Ukraine to the fate of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts - the four oblasts that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022 ... Putin likely aims to both stave off further US sanctions that could hinder Russia's ability to finance its war effort and to extract further US, Ukrainian, and European concessions through the ongoing negotiation process.
The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian media outlets to present the Alaska summit as a meeting between two superpowers and to prepare Russian society for the possibility of a protracted war in Ukraine ... the Kremlin issued a separate instruction manual before the summit stating that media outlets should emphasize that Putin spoke with Trump about “Kyiv’s unwillingness to negotiate,” that Russia is ready for any scenario in the talks, and that it is Putin - rather than Trump - who sets the agenda for US-Russian relations ... he Russian government aimed to prepare the Russian public for the possibility that the summit would fail to pause fighting and emphasize that Putin is setting the terms - cohering with ISW’s long-held assessment that
the Kremlin is not setting informational conditions for Russians to accept an end to the war that does not amount to a Russian victory on Putin's terms.
Russian officials continue rhetorical campaigns designed to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and peace negotiations and to legitimize Russia's war in Ukraine ... the meeting between Trump and Putin confirmed Russia's desire for a long-term and just peace and that Russia will achieve this goal either through military or diplomatic means.
Klishas also reiterated a long-standing Russian claim that there can be no unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine.
This rhetoric reinforces to a domestic Russian audience that it must not expect Putin to compromise on his long-held, public demands to achieve his full objectives in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who was part of the Russian delegation in Alaska, arrived in Anchorage on August 15 wearing a USSR sweatshirt in a staged media stunt. Lavrov likely sought to present Russia as the inheritor of the Soviet Union and simultaneously equate Russia and the United States as comparable superpowers, in line with the reported Kremlin command to Russian media to report that Putin restored Russia to its great power status, a status that Putin and other Russian officials have long complained was lost when the Soviet Union collapsed ... Russian officials have claimed that the Soviet Union never legally dissolved and that the Soviet Union therefore still exists, with Russia as the legal inheritor of its power, territory, and treaties - setting informational conditions to exert control over former Soviet Union states.
ISW continues to assess that Russia very likely maintains territorial ambitions beyond occupied Crimea and the other 4 Ukrainian oblasts it has illegally annexed.
Lavrov also likely sought to present the war in Ukraine as a matter that falls within Russia's sphere of influence in which other states should not interfere ...
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-16-2025
