Locals and campers were blindsided by the sudden surge of 20-26 feet on the Guadalupe River
We keep hearing this from Big Media over and over ... but, really? It was preceeded by freaking 10 inches of rain
And Kerr County, Texas only gets 30" of rain per year ... so shouldn't getting 1/3 of that compressed into a span of just 2 days be considered a warning to get out??
(not trying to be a jerk in the midst of this terrible tragedy, just pointing out that common sense still helps a lot with basic survival ...)
When it happens after midnight, and people are asleep, and the rain can be miles away while the flood comes to you?
Some of us are savvy and respect mother nature's hissy fits enough to get clear, but many are not. Sit through enough warnings where nothing happens and there is a tendency (human nature, really) to not take them as seriously as some of them merit.
It's like blizzard warnings in North Dakota. ('Yeah, what else is new' can easily become the attitude) But drive a few hundred miles in those conditions (and I have), and you earn respect for what you are facing.
I can pretty much guarantee no one who has survived this will ever blow off a flood warning.
The question is, is there a
better way to get those out, regardless of the time of day?
Cell phone alerts only work if he phone is on, and if you wake up and pay attention.
Perhaps sirens that warn of rising water levels, but even those would only give a very few minutes of lead time unless they are tied to flow monitoring upstream from the site to provide more advanced warning.
If someone wants to make AI really useful, they would have a system that integrates rainfall, rate, and the geometry of the watershed to produce automatic flood warnings with the maximum amount of lead time to evacuate.
Yes, that's done to some extent to produce warnings now, but those warnings are seen as precautionary by many and not a sign of imminent hazard. This might add a level of urgency to evacuation.
