Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2025
Excerpts:
Iran's possible decision to close the Strait of Hormuz will cause a significant spike in global oil prices, which would greatly economically and financially benefit Russia by reversing months of declining Russian oil revenue and allowing Russia to continue to finance its war against Ukraine in the medium term ...
Russia's intensified force generation efforts appear to be generating a reserve force that Russia will be able to leverage in Ukraine or against NATO in the future, despite current limitations on Russia's offensive capacity in Ukraine. Syrskyi stated on June 22 that the Russian military has approximately 695,000 troops stationed in Ukraine (including Russia's operational reserves) and that Russia has 13 divisions and an unspecified number of regiments and brigades (totaling roughly 121,000 troops) in its strategic reserve.
ISW previously noted that recent Kremlin statements indicate that the Russian military may be generating enough forces to replace personnel losses and reinforce the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine despite taking significant casualties in Ukraine.
Syrskyi’s statements suggest that Russia is also recruiting enough forces to establish reserves not currently committed to combat, although it remains unclear if these forces are truly committable throughout the theater or if Russia intends to use the forces in a specific priority sector. Russian forces are unlikely to commit this entire reserve to the frontline in Ukraine in the near future, however. Russian forces already appear to have manpower advantage in their priority frontline areas and are mainly struggling with overcoming the 15-20 kilometer-wide contested “gray zone” that Russian and Ukrainian drone operations have created = something that a significant influx of manpower is unlikely to help address.
Russia may intend to withhold most of these forces from combat in Ukraine in preparation for a future war with a NATO member state. Syrskyi noted that Russia is preparing for a protracted war of attrition and that Russia will try to 'exhaust' Ukraine with manpower advantage.
Syrskyi noted that Ukraine is maintaining defensive operations and conducting counterattacks in vulnerable areas of the frontline. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha reported on June 13 that Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Russia has started preparing strategic reserves, likely to use in combat operations “not only in Ukraine.”
ISW previously assessed that the Russian military may be prioritizing recruitment as part of longer-term efforts to build out a post-war strategic reserve for a potential future conflict with NATO.
The Russian military command will likely continue to build up this reserve to use in the future against Ukraine or NATO if Russia can maintain force generation rates sufficient to replace losses in Ukraine while also building out this reserve.
Kremlin officials are leveraging the Russian education system to indoctrinate children into the mythos of the Soviet Union's role in the Second World War and create a centralized state ideology that will shape generations in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine ...
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-22-2025
