Author Topic: Ukraine 6  (Read 479731 times)

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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #950 on: May 08, 2025, 02:24:15 pm »
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2025


Excerpts:
US officials acknowledged Russia's continued intransigence toward any ceasefire agreement in Ukraine while reiterating that Ukraine remains committed to US President Donald Trump's proposed comprehensive 30-day ceasefire ... US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg stated on May 6 that Russian President Vladimir Putin's refusal to agree to a 30-day ceasefire is the main impediment to establishing peace in Ukraine and that Russia will be hurt if the parties do not agree to a comprehensive ceasefire, as “Russia is not winning the war.”

Kellogg reiterated that Ukraine has agreed to a renewable comprehensive sea, air, and land ceasefire for a minimum of 30 days and that Ukraine is willing to immediately sign the agreement ... Kellogg stated that Ukraine is prepared to accept a “ceasefire in place” that will require both Russia and Ukraine to withdraw 15 kilometers from the current frontline in order to establish a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone that could fall under an unspecified monitoring mechanism.

Russia is likely attempting to prolong and delay discussions about a comprehensive ceasefire to obfuscate its continued rejection of the United States’ ceasefire proposals ... ISW continues to assess that Russia likely remains opposed to any sort of enforcement or monitoring mechanisms, as Russia would likely weaponize the absence of such mechanisms to flood the information space with unsubstantiated claims of Ukrainian ceasefire violations, as it has done before.

Russian authorities will likely test their ability to completely disconnect large areas of Russia from the internet on May 9 under the guise of protecting Russian Victory Day celebrations ... Russian authorities have been periodically testing their Sovereign Internet system, which allows Russia to completely disconnect itself from the global internet and increasingly censor Russians’ ability to communicate and access information. Reports of significant Russian internet outages have increased in the first months of 2025, and Russian authorities likely seek to take advantage of the May 9 holiday to conduct a widespread test of the Sovereign Internet system without encountering significant opposition from Russians.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signed the Russia-Venezuela Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement on May 7 ... The agreement notably includes a provision for the development of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Venezuela. This strategic partnership agreement coheres with Russian efforts to strengthen relations with Venezuela over the past several years, in large part to contest US influence in the Western hemisphere and to paint Russia as a competitive and capable world power.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2025

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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #951 on: May 08, 2025, 02:25:21 pm »
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #952 on: May 08, 2025, 07:22:20 pm »
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

Offline Hoodat

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If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

Online DB

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #954 on: May 08, 2025, 07:39:33 pm »
They're turning into North Korea... Much in common these days...

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #955 on: May 08, 2025, 08:12:35 pm »

Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #956 on: Today at 08:44:45 am »
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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #957 on: Today at 09:02:20 am »
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
.
Ukrainians Take Crimea By Storm!


Excerpts from the video transcript:

Today [ May 7, 8 pm ], there is important news from Crimea ... the Ukrainians conducted a massive, combined air and sea drone strike against the Crimean Peninsula with devastating results. With Ukrainians threatening this would be just the beginning, panic spread throughout the Russian government that the most important event in their calendar is under immense threat. Firstly, Ukrainians launched a massive drone strike targeting Russian military assets across Crimea and the Black Sea. Utilizing a combination of aerial and naval drones, Ukrainian forces launched a highly coordinated assault, systematically dismantling layered Russian defenses. The operation began with precision strikes on key air defense and electronic warfare systems, neutralizing Russia’s ability to detect and intercept incoming threats.

Once these systems were degraded, Ukrainian drones targeted patrol boats and airfields, paving the way for deeper strikes, and exposing vulnerabilities in Russia’s coastal and aerial security. Notably, Ukraine's military intelligence agency deployed Magura V5 and V7 naval drones equipped with R-73 infrared air-to-air missiles ... The strikes were widespread, with Ukrainian drones reported over areas including Zhuravlivka near Simferopol, Orlovka, Tarkhankut, and Yevpatoria, destroying numerous targets like an air defense system S-300, an Obzor-3, Kasta-2E2, ST-68, and Imbir radars. The Belbek, Hvardiiske, Saky, and Kacha airfields, and the Kirovske military air base were also targeted, as they are used by Russia to control airspace over the Black Sea and launch strikes on Ukrainian territory.

The important Russian radio-technical intel complex Zvezda near Stavropol was hit again, critical for Russian satellite communication. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted 112 drones in total, yet the scale and precision of the attacks indicate a significant breach in Russian defenses. Numerous reports from eyewitnesses from the peninsula confirm that, despite Russian claims, there were a substantial number of explosions to be heard and seen, a clear indication that not all drones were intercepted. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov suggested that visitors to Moscow might need earplugs ... the military equipment and personnel assembled in grouped-together locations, before and after, the event present legitimate military targets.

In response to the heightened threat, Russia has reportedly already redeployed over 280 air defense systems, including S-400, Tor, and Buk air defense systems, as well as radars and electronic warfare equipment to Moscow to bolster security for the Victory Day Parade ... the redeployment of at least 280 highly effective air defense assets to Moscow has left other regions vulnerable, without the necessary protection ... massive gaps are appearing in Russia’s air defense network, with the recent strikes in Crimea appearing to be just the beginning of something much bigger. Overall, after the devastating strike on Crimea, President Zelenskyy's remarks have unsettled the Russian government, prompting a reactive and resource-intensive shift of air defense assets. By forcing Russia to concentrate huge amounts of air defenses around Moscow, Ukraine has created opportunities to strike elsewhere, potentially leading to significant losses for Russia in the coming days. This not only threatens Russia's military assets but also challenges the internally perceived invulnerability of the Russian state

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Offline FtrPilot

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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 6
« Reply #959 on: Today at 09:31:36 am »
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos

Kursk Offensive Continues. Dragon Teeth Breached! Bridges and Command Centers Destroyed!

Excerpts from the video transcript:

Today [ May 8, 8 pm ], there is interesting news from the Kursk direction ... the Ukrainians launched another surprising incursion through the border. This is putting extra pressure on the Russian reserves and could force them into an overreaction that can lead to even more serious problems for them and result in an operational-level penetration and crisis ... The Ukrainian plan incorporates creating multiple simultaneous threats along the border, and strategically prevents the Russians from focusing on their Donbas summer campaign by baiting them into costly defensive operations in Kursk. The incursion started with well-timed preliminary strikes, with the Ukrainian Air Force hitting a Russian drone command center near the village of Tyotkino, reportedly killing up to 20 Russian personnel ... Ukrainian forces shelled Tyotkino and engaged in a battle near the railway station, while Ukrainian aviation destroyed a bridge near the village of Zvannoe, to isolate the Russian defenders. These actions disrupted Russian mobility and communications, laying the groundwork for the main effort.

Towards Tyotkino, Ukrainians launched a sophisticated maneuver ... attacking Russian logistics ... in the Novi Put direction, the local “dragon’s teeth” defenses were already compromised since September last year, so Ukrainian armored vehicles moved in after mine-clearing operations, exploiting a pre-existing gap without conducting a full-scale breaching assault. This allowed for rapid penetration and complicated the Russian tactical response ... Russian analysts suggest that this may not be the Ukrainians' main offensive, but rather a diversion aimed at drawing off Russian operational reserves and conducting their main strike in a completely different direction ...  As Ukrainian forces that withdrew earlier from the first Kursk incursion were not destroyed, but are still combat-effective, they can now be reinserted into action, giving Ukraine the initiative.

This would extend even more pressure over the Russian command to throw its forces in a counterattack, which would be doomed to end in disaster with huge losses, due to the terrain and Ukrainian drone dominance ... if the current effort succeeds, would be a push toward Glushkovo. Capturing ground along the Seym River could effectively cut Russian communications to the west, isolating multiple positions and paving the way for a new broader Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast. If this happens before or during Victory Day on May 9, it would not only be a military blow to Russia, but a psychological one as well, overshadowing a key symbolic date. Success in Kursk would undo Russia’s gains from March and April and serve as a morale-boosting milestone for Ukrainian forces ...  the newest incursion into Kursk is not an isolated action, but a deliberate continuation of Ukraine’s border pressure campaign. Combined with the earlier Belgorod operation, it represents a clear attempt to overstretch Russian military capacity, disrupt reinforcements to Eastern Ukraine, and deny the Russian command any breathing room.

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