Author Topic: Hurricane Helene  (Read 64657 times)

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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #76 on: September 26, 2024, 10:04:25 am »
Storm surge of 20 ft. is NOT survivable and certainly 20 ft. surge (also depending on tide time) would be over that house pictured.

The storm has shifted a bit this morning but the Big Bend area will see likely storm surge of 20 ft. That is on top of the existing water level at the time of the tide. Regardless if it happens at low tide or high tide that amount of water rushing in is not survivable. I pray that those who were stranded due to the inability either physically or financially to flee were able to get out.

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #77 on: September 26, 2024, 10:20:23 am »
Nothing in nature is more fascianting and beautiful from space than watching hurricane activity.   Helene is not an exception.

The previous page is a good guide, that Helene is nothing to mess with.  A Cat 4 storm with 20 foot storm surge is a rare occurence hitting the U.S. We are getting the double wham, when you get this kind of configuration.  As I said yesterday, there really isn't much to impede strengthening.  The only tiny tid bit of good news, is that in the latest Sat vis run, I see some dry air trying to envelop the eastern side of the storm.  This might be a short term event, but could still lessen the upward trojection.

I also see a few other unique or extraordinary traits with the storm right now.

1. Amazing defintion and demarcation of the trough/front that stretches from near NOLA to the Central Bay of Campeche. I have ony see this level of difference maybe once or twice.  So how does that impact?  Well...   As Helene moves inland, that trough area (assuming to slowly move east) will interact with the storm, and create flooding.  Right now, they are throwing numbers like 20 inches at the lower Appalachia/Smoky area.  If we see additonal lift from that dry air....  watch for even larger numbers.  The terrain with that kind of precipitation might make this a historic deadly flooding event.  And this is 300-400 miles inland. 

2. From CONUS met profile with this storm has created a unique bottling up of atm. moisture along the entire eastern 1/4 of the country.  The uplift, from the trough has created what almost looks like feeder clouds all the way up and down the east coast.  That's pretty rare too.

One other point is that the last hour of sat run, shows what might be an eye wall replacement or a decent wobble to the east.  It's quite enough of  a wobble that could impact the path.  In a few hours, we'll see if the NHC adjusts it.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2024, 10:27:09 am by catfish1957 »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #78 on: September 26, 2024, 10:51:01 am »
My vector estimate of the past 4 hours is about 50-55 degrees.   This isn't NNE.  In a few minutes, we'll see how the NHC explains.

Will be very surprised if they don't shift the cone a little eastward.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #79 on: September 26, 2024, 10:59:28 am »
My vector estimate of the past 4 hours is about 50-55 degrees.   This isn't NNE.  In a few minutes, we'll see how the NHC explains.

Will be very surprised if they don't shift the cone a little eastward.

Local news has shown that shift to the east but only slightly.  It could shift even further to the east now? This hurricane is so massive that, that may impact storm surge, would it not?
« Last Edit: September 26, 2024, 11:03:17 am by libertybele »

Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #80 on: September 26, 2024, 11:05:28 am »
Local news has shown that shift to the east but only slightly.  It could shift even further to the east now?

Depends on whether this is an old fashioned wobble/eye wall replacement, or an actual directional change. 

Will need a few more hours of sat data to make that call.  If the ENE or NE change happens?  Tampa is more in play.
One last point...  Watch the sat....  The western edge of storm convection has not changed in the past 4 hours.  The east side?  About 75 miles eastward.   :pondering:
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #81 on: September 26, 2024, 11:09:37 am »
Depends on whether this is an old fashioned wobble/eye wall replacement, or an actual directional change. 

Will need a few more hours of sat data to make that call.  If the ENE or NE change happens?  Tampa is more in play.
One last point...  Watch the sat....  The western edge of storm convection has not changed in the past 4 hours.  The east side?  About 75 miles eastward.   :pondering:

I am thinking it is going to affect Tampa more now as well. That wouldn't be a good situation as there isn't time for them to evacuate and they sure as heck can't travel north. No flights out right now either.  However, the NCH is still making this a Big Bend landfall.

As of the 10:00 am advisory from the NCH:

The large hurricane is picking up speed and has turned slightly to
the north-northeast.  The latest initial motion is 025/12 kt.  A
notably faster north-northeastward motion is expected through
landfall, which is expected to occur in the Florida Big Bend region
this evening.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2024, 11:10:27 am by libertybele »

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #82 on: September 26, 2024, 02:07:20 pm »
As winds push the water ... "here’s how storm surges work -----"


https://twitter.com/disaster_db/status/1839109048618332200

Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #83 on: September 26, 2024, 02:25:16 pm »
We are now at the point of rattling off lat/long tics as far as storm placement.  I feel for these folks, been there several times.

At this juncture, a couple of wobbles, and eye replacements can make the difference in getting 120 mph vs. 50 mph at a location.  Plus, hopefully there are zero people left in storm surge prone areas in the FL coastal bend. This storm due to it's trough location nearby to the west , is highly skewing its wind field and precip bands to the east half of the storm.

At last. (sigh), there doesn't seem to see any buoy numbers, atmospheric conditions that are going to slow this thing down,  Even that dry air entrapment I mentioned earlier has subsided.
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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #84 on: September 26, 2024, 03:37:01 pm »
All you Florida folks stay safe. :0001:

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #85 on: September 26, 2024, 03:39:56 pm »
Hurricane is right off our coast, water coming in from the south into Pine Island Sound. Winds are now at 50-60mph pushing that water inland.  No rain, but water coming on the Island and surrounding areas.

It is now a Category 3 still moving NE.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-helene-now-a-category-3-hurricane/vi-AA1rgQUa?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=fd30ad06425a4a0ff39457ac47f41c9f&ei=11
« Last Edit: September 26, 2024, 03:43:33 pm by libertybele »

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #86 on: September 26, 2024, 03:41:42 pm »
All you Florida folks stay safe. :0001:

Praying that those winds don't ramp up anymore and that the surge is minimal.

Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #87 on: September 26, 2024, 03:50:53 pm »
As winds push the water ... "here’s how storm surges work -----"


https://twitter.com/disaster_db/status/1839109048618332200

Michael was a Cat 5 and IIRC that is  what @Wingnut went through.

It would not surprise me, since it is off the coast of Ft.Myers as a Cat 3 already if Helene doesn't become a Cat 5.  She's got a long ways to travel yet to even get to Tampa and is still heading on the same path.  Hopefully it will stay off the coast. It seems to be veering more to the east but I am not a meteorologist.

Maybe @catfish1957 has some input if this is continuing to veer more NE?
« Last Edit: September 26, 2024, 03:52:47 pm by libertybele »

Offline Gefn

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #88 on: September 26, 2024, 03:58:35 pm »
Weather Channel just alerted it is a category 3.

https://weather.com


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Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #89 on: September 26, 2024, 04:00:00 pm »
There was a couple that actually survived their rental house being hit by the 20 foot surge: they wore life preservers. Not fun, but they were alive.

Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #90 on: September 26, 2024, 04:17:04 pm »
There was a couple that actually survived their rental house being hit by the 20 foot surge: they wore life preservers. Not fun, but they were alive.

Wow...

I worked with a guy right out of college, who lost his parents and 3 siblings in Audrey in 1957.  He never mentioned it, but others told me he   survivied by clinging to a scrub oak, and waiting about 48 hours before rescue response arrived.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #91 on: September 26, 2024, 04:27:46 pm »
Michael was a Cat 5 and IIRC that is  what @Wingnut went through.

It would not surprise me, since it is off the coast of Ft.Myers as a Cat 3 already if Helene doesn't become a Cat 5.  She's got a long ways to travel yet to even get to Tampa and is still heading on the same path.  Hopefully it will stay off the coast. It seems to be veering more to the east but I am not a meteorologist.

Maybe @catfish1957 has some input if this is continuing to veer more NE?

While counting the tics, it's seems the Tampa area is in the clear, though when you lookd at the NHC wind probabilities, it looks like the worst of the event is going to have 35-45kt winds there  That's not too bad.  Maybe a few trees, power outages, etc.

Except, if you have problems with a 5-8 foot surge.  So I guess there could. be concerns for those properties along Tampa Bay, up to el. 8.
Don't forget about tornados too, that spin off typically on the east side of the storm at landfall.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #92 on: September 26, 2024, 04:30:28 pm »
There was a couple that actually survived their rental house being hit by the 20 foot surge: they wore life preservers. Not fun, but they were alive.

Quite amazing and very sensible actually.

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #93 on: September 26, 2024, 04:37:42 pm »
Wind and rain has ramped up this afternoon - now in tropical storm conditions with 40 sustained gusting to 67.  It’s hard to believe the center is passing so far offshore. 

Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #94 on: September 26, 2024, 04:59:16 pm »
4pm Alert... 

Storm has sped up to 23 mph...   This will have the effect of adding addtional feet to surge.

If it arrives as a  Cat 4 hurricane @ 23mph?   We are about to possibly witness history.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2024, 05:04:20 pm by catfish1957 »
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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #95 on: September 26, 2024, 05:01:00 pm »
All you Florida folks stay safe. :0001:

 :yowsa: :amen:
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #96 on: September 26, 2024, 05:06:38 pm »
My sister is at her Chicago home and not on Sanibel Island...they are watching what is happening on their Ring camera...so far windy and no rain.....but that will change
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #97 on: September 26, 2024, 05:13:11 pm »
My sister is at her Chicago home and not on Sanibel Island...they are watching what is happening on their Ring camera...so far windy and no rain.....but that will change

I've been watching live cams from Sanibel and water is coming up onto the causeway...so they're already seeing some surge.  Helene is beginning to leave the area and surge should be from about 7 p.m. to about 1 a.m. We aren't expecting more than a couple of inches of rain from this hurricane. Whatever your sister experienced from Debby a few months ago, the surge will be about that, maybe a little more. That's what local news is saying anyways.

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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #98 on: September 26, 2024, 05:20:23 pm »
I've been watching live cams from Sanibel and water is coming up onto the causeway...so they're already seeing some surge.  Helene is beginning to leave the area and surge should be from about 7 p.m. to about 1 a.m. We aren't expecting more than a couple of inches of rain from this hurricane. Whatever your sister experienced from Debby a few months ago, the surge will be about that, maybe a little more. That's what local news is saying anyways.

Oh boy..they have just repaired all that damage...their home is on the highest ground on the Island and most of their damage was water and flooding...
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Re: Hurricane Helene
« Reply #99 on: September 26, 2024, 05:21:38 pm »
Where is @Wingnut I hope he isn't riding this out.....
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