Hurricane Helene

[libertybele]

NOTICE: We have just been advised that the storm surge could reach 20' in the Big Bend area.

[bigheadfred]

Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch
·
1h
Hurricane Helene is now forecast to slam into western Florida tomorrow as a catastrophic Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds and gusts up to 160 mph.

[cato potatoe]

Fortunately the big bend is a desolate swamp.  Some people in GA will be surprised by the wind damage, however.

[jmyrlefuller]

Looks like someone took care of the thread—sorry about that, been busy on other things.

[libertybele]

Fortunately the big bend is a desolate swamp.  Some people in GA will be surprised by the wind damage, however.

Desolate swamp? I'm not so sure about that. That areas in general has about 25,000 people, but really need to keep in mind that they are saying Big Bend 'area' - this storm is nearly 500' from top to bottom. Areas that it passes will be affected especially the further north that this system travels with storm surge increasing as well.  Tampa may see storm surge of about 8'....and then the surge increases north.

[libertybele]

Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch
·
1h
Hurricane Helene is now forecast to slam into western Florida tomorrow as a catastrophic Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds and gusts up to 160 mph.

That's something to take note of for sure.

[catfish1957]

Fortunately the big bend is a desolate swamp.  Some people in GA will be surprised by the wind damage, however.

Based on the forecast map, as far inland as Columbus, Georgia should have sustained hurricane force winds early a.m. Friday.

[catfish1957]

If the path doesn't stray much westward, I don't see any reason why this storm doesn't reach Cat 4.

As commonly happens as fall approaches, we see stronger troughs and fronts in the GOM, and almost always, they are the biggest influencers on how these storms act directionally.  Right now the most NW 1/3 of the GOM has some dry air entrainment....  If some of that air mass can filter in, we might see this thing level off, but I am not seeing that right now.  Or betting on it either.

[cato potatoe]

Desolate swamp? I'm not so sure about that. That areas in general has about 25,000 people, but really need to keep in mind that they are saying Big Bend 'area'

The swamp people will be fine.  With a slight left turn it could blow some roofs off in Tallahassee, with major tree damage to complicate recovery.  Probably some coastal inundation from tropical storm force winds all the way down to Lee Co.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

That is my understanding.  Face the wind, flee the water.

My understanding is that the extended periods in Florida with no electricity can be excruciating once temperatures return to normal Florida. Just from watching enough Florida vlogs of people going through the storms. I'd be tempted to just say screw it and find a hotel room out in a safe area just so I don't face a week or two without AC. Haha, of course i'm a softie.

[libertybele]

My understanding is that the extended periods in Florida with no electricity can be excruciating once temperatures return to normal Florida. Just from watching enough Florida vlogs of people going through the storms. I'd be tempted to just say screw it and find a hotel room out in a safe area just so I don't face a week or two without AC. Haha, of course i'm a softie.

Well, that would be wonderful, except good luck trying to find a hotel room with power nearby and/or one that has availability. Thousands of people will be trying to flee that heat.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Well, that would be wonderful, except good luck trying to find a hotel room with power nearby and/or one that has availability. Thousands of people will be trying to flee that heat.

As much as I like Desantis, I don't think I was made for Florida or anywhere in the sun belt.

[libertybele]

As much as I like Desantis, I don't think I was made for Florida or anywhere in the sun belt.

Well, honestly, I didn't want to move to FL but my husband was facing layoffs where he worked and his parents were here, so, we wound up in FL as we figured we'd eventually retire here anyways.

I love the mountains and the mountain air. Colorado would be my choice, though it such a blue state now, I'm not so sure.  I lived in AK and it was very beautiful and so peaceful. Yes it got dang cold and I don't think at this age I could adapt to that type of climate again.  Who knows....

[catfish1957]

Next week's big news?.....   Flash flooding in southern Appalacia and Smokey's. Unlike some storms that move east, and go out to see, it appears this one is going to sit, stall, and gullywash.

[Elderberry]

Helene now projected as Category 4 hurricane, could get stronger: Live updates

USA Today

Hurricane Helene is now predicted to reach Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, part of a frightening forecast of 130-mph winds and high storm surge that brings a dire scenario for hundreds of miles of the state's coast as entire communities are forced to flee.

Helene reached hurricane status Wednesday and was forecast to grow more powerful and dangerous before making landfall Thursday evening on Florida's Gulf Coast as a devastating Category 4 storm, up from an expectation earlier Wednesday that it would arrive as a Category 3 hurricane.

"It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall,'' the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. ET update. The NHC added that "a catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves.''

All along the center has expected Helene to strengthen rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but the sustained winds were projected at 120-125 mph.

This is the “worst case for the Tallahassee region and Big Bend of Florida,” said Craig Fugate, former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “Storm surge will most likely set records along the coast.”

The highest landfall probability is somewhere along the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle − possibly the Big Bend area, the curve of Florida's peninsula around the Gulf of Mexico − late Thursday, AccuWeather forecasters said. Near where Helene makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is expected, with 2 feet of rain possible in isolated areas.

Developments:

∎ Tampa International Airport said it will suspend operations at 2 a.m. Thursday because of the hurricane. The airport plans to reopen "when safe to do so." The smaller, nearby St. Pete-Clearwater Airport will be closed Thursday and is scheduled to reopen Friday, according to its website. Orlando International Airport said on X that it remains open but some flights could be delayed or cancelled for weather-related reasons.

∎ While U.S. flights weren't seeing a major impact early Wednesday, 12% of flights to Cancun, Mexico, had been canceled and another 16% delayed as of 1:30 p.m. ET, according to online flight tracker FlightAware. Elsewhere, airlines have issued travel waivers, allowing customers to rebook flights along the hurricane's path without penalties, though cities, dates and terms vary widely. Details here.

∎ The Tampa Zoo said it will close its door to the public Thursday and take measures to protect the animals from the approaching hurricane.

∎ The University of Florida cancelled classes for Thursday, joining Florida State and Florida A&M universities, whose closures will last through the weekend.

∎ Helene is the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, about the average number for the date, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. A typical season sees a total of seven hurricanes. If it lands as a Category 3 storm, this would be fifth consecutive year a major hurricane hits the U.S. mainland, which has only happened once before, Klotzbach said.

Helene's explosive forecastone of the 'most aggressive' in hurricane history

More: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/09/25/helene-storm-hurricane-path-forecast-live-updates/75369769007/

[240B]

I'm a meteorologist - here's why Storm Helene is causing 'tremendous' concern among experts

DAILYMAIL.COM
By Nikki Main
25 September 2024



Of all storms to hit the US in recent years, Hurricane Helene is causing 'tremendous' concern among experts.

The storm was upgraded to a category one hurricane at the last minute today, meaning officials are scrambling to put safety measures and evacuation orders in place.

Residents were only given a little more than a days' notice about the hurricane, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) typically issues a warning 36 hours in advance to give people enough time to prepare for the storm.

'The amount of damage will be tremendous,' Professor Pam Knox, from the University of Georgia told DailyMail.com.

The hurricane is expected to batter Florida's west coast between 6 and 10pm ET on Thursday with winds will reach speeds of up to 125 miles per hour.

This is nearly twice as strong as the winds felt by Hurricane Debby which struck last month, causing an estimated $28 billion in damage and economic losses.

Hurricane Helene will stretch as far inland as Atlanta before traveling up the east coast to North and South Carolina, which hasn't been hit by a major hurricane in nearly three decades.

(more)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13890495/Metereologists-dire-warning-Hurricane-Helene-Florida-Georgia.html

[Right_in_Virginia]

I don't know if this info helps, but it looked important ....

"The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting an "unsurvivable storm surge" of up to 20 feet from Hurricane Helene for the Big Bend of Florida. THIS is what that looks like..."

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1839066659916497404

[Smokin Joe]

Fortunately the big bend is a desolate swamp.  Some people in GA will be surprised by the wind damage, however.

Flood that 10-20 ft., and the critters get more widely distributed.

[Gefn]

Doesn't look like it. This one will hit the Gulf Coast.

Thank you. I am terrible at geography.

@mountaineer

[Gefn]

Hurricane Helene tracker: Storm forecast to make landfall in Florida at Category 4 strength with 'catastrophic' winds and storm surge

Hurricane Helene is now forecast to make landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast on Thursday evening at Category 4 strength, the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm is expected to bring "catastrophic" winds and a "deadly storm surge" to a large portion of Florida and the Southeast, meteorologists warned. The storm surge could reach as high as 20 feet in some areas.

The governors of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina declared states of emergency ahead of Helene's arrival. The Tampa International Airport announced that it will suspend operations on Thursday.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-helene-tracker-storm-forecast-to-make-landfall-in-florida-at-category-4-strength-with-catastrophic-winds-and-storm-surge-154211852.html

[mystery-ak]

Florida braces for monster storm Helene as 'unsurvivable' category 4 hurricane packing 130mph winds expected to slam into Gulf Coast within HOURS

   By James Gordon and Natasha Anderson

Published: 01:57 EDT, 26 September 2024 | Updated: 06:03 EDT, 26 September 2024

Hurricane Helene is set to strike Florida's Gulf Coast within hours, threatening an 'unsurvivable' storm surge that would leave catastrophic damage and could deluge cities and swallow homes.

Helene could roar ashore as a Category 4 hurricane by tonight, with wind speeds of up to 130mph after spending days strengthening in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center warned.

Forecasters predict Helene could bring storm surges of up to 20 feet (6 meters) and warned they could be particularly 'catastrophic and life-threatening' in Florida's Apalachee Bay. Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm's arrival.

The storm may also bring heavy rain, damaging winds, and flash floods hundreds of miles inland across much of the southeastern US, forecasters said.

The chilling warnings have sent residents scrambling for higher ground, closed schools, and led to states of emergency across the Southeast.

more
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13892963/Florida-braces-monster-storm-Helene-category-4-hurricane-packing-130mph-winds-expected-slam-Gulf-Coast-HOURS.html

[libertybele]

I don't know if this info helps, but it looked important ....

"The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting an "unsurvivable storm surge" of up to 20 feet from Hurricane Helene for the Big Bend of Florida. THIS is what that looks like..."

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1839066659916497404

Storm surge of 20 ft. is just not survivable. This unfortunately is just the beginning for that area ...

[Polly Ticks]

I pray that those who were stranded due to the inability either physically or financially to flee were able to get out.

Ditto.

[libertybele]

The Times Square area of Fort Myers Beach, Fl, flooded as Hurricane Helene passes on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. Hurricane Helene is expected to pass SWFL on the way to the big bend area. SWFL is preparing for possible storm surge from the Hurricane.
Andrew West/The News-Press/USA Today Network

[libertybele]

Ft. Myers Beach

[libertybele]

South of here they are surfing ....

https://www.news-press.com/videos/news/local/2024/09/26/marco-island-florida-surfing-during-hurricane-helene/75390046007/

[Bigun]

Storm surge of 20 ft. is NOT survivable and certainly 20 ft. surge (also depending on tide time) would be over that house pictured.

The storm has shifted a bit this morning but the Big Bend area will see likely storm surge of 20 ft. That is on top of the existing water level at the time of the tide. Regardless if it happens at low tide or high tide that amount of water rushing in is not survivable. I pray that those who were stranded due to the inability either physically or financially to flee were able to get out.

 

[catfish1957]

Nothing in nature is more fascianting and beautiful from space than watching hurricane activity.   Helene is not an exception.

The previous page is a good guide, that Helene is nothing to mess with.  A Cat 4 storm with 20 foot storm surge is a rare occurence hitting the U.S. We are getting the double wham, when you get this kind of configuration.  As I said yesterday, there really isn't much to impede strengthening.  The only tiny tid bit of good news, is that in the latest Sat vis run, I see some dry air trying to envelop the eastern side of the storm.  This might be a short term event, but could still lessen the upward trojection.

I also see a few other unique or extraordinary traits with the storm right now.

1. Amazing defintion and demarcation of the trough/front that stretches from near NOLA to the Central Bay of Campeche. I have ony see this level of difference maybe once or twice.  So how does that impact?  Well...   As Helene moves inland, that trough area (assuming to slowly move east) will interact with the storm, and create flooding.  Right now, they are throwing numbers like 20 inches at the lower Appalachia/Smoky area.  If we see additonal lift from that dry air....  watch for even larger numbers.  The terrain with that kind of precipitation might make this a historic deadly flooding event.  And this is 300-400 miles inland. 

2. From CONUS met profile with this storm has created a unique bottling up of atm. moisture along the entire eastern 1/4 of the country.  The uplift, from the trough has created what almost looks like feeder clouds all the way up and down the east coast.  That's pretty rare too.

One other point is that the last hour of sat run, shows what might be an eye wall replacement or a decent wobble to the east.  It's quite enough of  a wobble that could impact the path.  In a few hours, we'll see if the NHC adjusts it.

[catfish1957]

My vector estimate of the past 4 hours is about 50-55 degrees.   This isn't NNE.  In a few minutes, we'll see how the NHC explains.

Will be very surprised if they don't shift the cone a little eastward.

[libertybele]

My vector estimate of the past 4 hours is about 50-55 degrees.   This isn't NNE.  In a few minutes, we'll see how the NHC explains.

Will be very surprised if they don't shift the cone a little eastward.

Local news has shown that shift to the east but only slightly.  It could shift even further to the east now? This hurricane is so massive that, that may impact storm surge, would it not?

[catfish1957]

Local news has shown that shift to the east but only slightly.  It could shift even further to the east now?

Depends on whether this is an old fashioned wobble/eye wall replacement, or an actual directional change. 

Will need a few more hours of sat data to make that call.  If the ENE or NE change happens?  Tampa is more in play.
One last point...  Watch the sat....  The western edge of storm convection has not changed in the past 4 hours.  The east side?  About 75 miles eastward.   

[libertybele]

Depends on whether this is an old fashioned wobble/eye wall replacement, or an actual directional change. 

Will need a few more hours of sat data to make that call.  If the ENE or NE change happens?  Tampa is more in play.
One last point...  Watch the sat....  The western edge of storm convection has not changed in the past 4 hours.  The east side?  About 75 miles eastward.   

I am thinking it is going to affect Tampa more now as well. That wouldn't be a good situation as there isn't time for them to evacuate and they sure as heck can't travel north. No flights out right now either.  However, the NCH is still making this a Big Bend landfall.

As of the 10:00 am advisory from the NCH:

The large hurricane is picking up speed and has turned slightly to
the north-northeast.  The latest initial motion is 025/12 kt.  A
notably faster north-northeastward motion is expected through
landfall, which is expected to occur in the Florida Big Bend region
this evening.

[Right_in_Virginia]

As winds push the water ... "here’s how storm surges work -----"

https://twitter.com/disaster_db/status/1839109048618332200

[catfish1957]

We are now at the point of rattling off lat/long tics as far as storm placement.  I feel for these folks, been there several times.

At this juncture, a couple of wobbles, and eye replacements can make the difference in getting 120 mph vs. 50 mph at a location.  Plus, hopefully there are zero people left in storm surge prone areas in the FL coastal bend. This storm due to it's trough location nearby to the west , is highly skewing its wind field and precip bands to the east half of the storm.

At last. (sigh), there doesn't seem to see any buoy numbers, atmospheric conditions that are going to slow this thing down,  Even that dry air entrapment I mentioned earlier has subsided.

[berdie]

All you Florida folks stay safe.

[libertybele]

Hurricane is right off our coast, water coming in from the south into Pine Island Sound. Winds are now at 50-60mph pushing that water inland.  No rain, but water coming on the Island and surrounding areas.

It is now a Category 3 still moving NE.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-helene-now-a-category-3-hurricane/vi-AA1rgQUa?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=fd30ad06425a4a0ff39457ac47f41c9f&ei=11

[libertybele]

All you Florida folks stay safe.

Praying that those winds don't ramp up anymore and that the surge is minimal.

[libertybele]

As winds push the water ... "here’s how storm surges work -----"

https://twitter.com/disaster_db/status/1839109048618332200

Michael was a Cat 5 and IIRC that is  what @Wingnut went through.

It would not surprise me, since it is off the coast of Ft.Myers as a Cat 3 already if Helene doesn't become a Cat 5.  She's got a long ways to travel yet to even get to Tampa and is still heading on the same path.  Hopefully it will stay off the coast. It seems to be veering more to the east but I am not a meteorologist.

Maybe @catfish1957 has some input if this is continuing to veer more NE?

[Gefn]

Weather Channel just alerted it is a category 3.

https://weather.com


everyone stay safe

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

There was a couple that actually survived their rental house being hit by the 20 foot surge: they wore life preservers. Not fun, but they were alive.

[catfish1957]

There was a couple that actually survived their rental house being hit by the 20 foot surge: they wore life preservers. Not fun, but they were alive.

Wow...

I worked with a guy right out of college, who lost his parents and 3 siblings in Audrey in 1957.  He never mentioned it, but others told me he   survivied by clinging to a scrub oak, and waiting about 48 hours before rescue response arrived.

[catfish1957]

Michael was a Cat 5 and IIRC that is  what @Wingnut went through.

It would not surprise me, since it is off the coast of Ft.Myers as a Cat 3 already if Helene doesn't become a Cat 5.  She's got a long ways to travel yet to even get to Tampa and is still heading on the same path.  Hopefully it will stay off the coast. It seems to be veering more to the east but I am not a meteorologist.

Maybe @catfish1957 has some input if this is continuing to veer more NE?

While counting the tics, it's seems the Tampa area is in the clear, though when you lookd at the NHC wind probabilities, it looks like the worst of the event is going to have 35-45kt winds there  That's not too bad.  Maybe a few trees, power outages, etc.

Except, if you have problems with a 5-8 foot surge.  So I guess there could. be concerns for those properties along Tampa Bay, up to el. 8.
Don't forget about tornados too, that spin off typically on the east side of the storm at landfall.

[libertybele]

There was a couple that actually survived their rental house being hit by the 20 foot surge: they wore life preservers. Not fun, but they were alive.

Quite amazing and very sensible actually.

[cato potatoe]

Wind and rain has ramped up this afternoon - now in tropical storm conditions with 40 sustained gusting to 67.  It’s hard to believe the center is passing so far offshore. 

[catfish1957]

4pm Alert... 

Storm has sped up to 23 mph...   This will have the effect of adding addtional feet to surge.

If it arrives as a  Cat 4 hurricane @ 23mph?   We are about to possibly witness history.

[Bigun]

All you Florida folks stay safe.

 

[mystery-ak]

My sister is at her Chicago home and not on Sanibel Island...they are watching what is happening on their Ring camera...so far windy and no rain.....but that will change

[libertybele]

My sister is at her Chicago home and not on Sanibel Island...they are watching what is happening on their Ring camera...so far windy and no rain.....but that will change

I've been watching live cams from Sanibel and water is coming up onto the causeway...so they're already seeing some surge.  Helene is beginning to leave the area and surge should be from about 7 p.m. to about 1 a.m. We aren't expecting more than a couple of inches of rain from this hurricane. Whatever your sister experienced from Debby a few months ago, the surge will be about that, maybe a little more. That's what local news is saying anyways.

[mystery-ak]

I've been watching live cams from Sanibel and water is coming up onto the causeway...so they're already seeing some surge.  Helene is beginning to leave the area and surge should be from about 7 p.m. to about 1 a.m. We aren't expecting more than a couple of inches of rain from this hurricane. Whatever your sister experienced from Debby a few months ago, the surge will be about that, maybe a little more. That's what local news is saying anyways.

Oh boy..they have just repaired all that damage...their home is on the highest ground on the Island and most of their damage was water and flooding...

[mystery-ak]

Where is @Wingnut I hope he isn't riding this out.....