Author Topic: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election  (Read 112682 times)

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Online 240B

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #50 on: December 12, 2017, 08:56:27 pm »
Roy Moore    Republican    41,524    53.0%   
Doug Jones    Democrat    35,776    45.7   
Total Write-Ins    —    974    1.2

Looking way better for Moore.


Too bad we didn't have more wacko, pervert, commie, Leftist, celebrities campaigning for Jones. It would be 80/20 by now.
So, I guess they never did use Obama's robocall. Or, looking at the results maybe they did?
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 08:57:10 pm by 240B »
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #51 on: December 12, 2017, 08:59:41 pm »

Too bad we didn't have more wacko, pervert, commie, Leftist, celebrities campaigning for Jones. It would be 80/20 by now.
So, I guess they never did use Obama's robocall. Or, looking at the results maybe they did?

My grandparents were from Alabama, still got alot of cousins there. Obama and the celebrities probably worked against Jones.
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #52 on: December 12, 2017, 09:00:59 pm »
15% of precincts reporting

Roy Moore    Republican    75,384    50.1%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    73,177    48.6    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    1,901    1.3    

Looks like the urban areas came in.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 09:01:36 pm by Free Vulcan »
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #53 on: December 12, 2017, 09:01:58 pm »
My grandparents were from Alabama, still got alot of cousins there. Obama and the celebrities probably worked against Jones.
One could call it the Jon Ossoff effect: they played their hand too hard on a populace that is not inclined to believe them.

It is still early, though: there are lots of votes in the cities yet to be tallied (though a big chunk of Birmingham just came in).
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 09:02:57 pm by jmyrlefuller »
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #54 on: December 12, 2017, 09:05:48 pm »
21% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    112,867    51.8%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    101,972    46.8    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    2,861    1.3

Starting to go Moore again.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #55 on: December 12, 2017, 09:12:09 pm »
Fox Business:  Moore's up, 143,000 to 122, 000.  26%
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #56 on: December 12, 2017, 09:14:43 pm »
30% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    168,243    52.0%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    151,114    46.7    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    4,329    1.3    
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2017, 09:17:36 pm »
So, I guess they never did use Obama's robocall. Or, looking at the results maybe they did?

Doug did use them, he has hired people to drive vans in black communities with loudspeakers broadcasting it trying to get the vote out. One of the ladies in my gun group put up a video of them doing it.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #58 on: December 12, 2017, 09:17:39 pm »
15% of precincts reporting

Roy Moore    Republican    75,384    50.1%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    73,177    48.6    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    1,901    1.3    

Looks like the urban areas came in.

Pretty sure no one cares what Urban thinks this go around

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #59 on: December 12, 2017, 09:22:30 pm »
40% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    218,933    51.8%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    198,524    46.9    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    5,576    1.3    
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #60 on: December 12, 2017, 09:23:02 pm »
Decision Desk broke down for me....
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #61 on: December 12, 2017, 09:23:09 pm »
Looking bad for Moore right now, but the margins could shrink in urban counties and pan out in his favor.  We shall see...

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #62 on: December 12, 2017, 09:23:47 pm »
NYT projections note that most of the votes coming in are strong R precincts, and that an unsettling number of D strongholds have yet to submit their votes.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #63 on: December 12, 2017, 09:25:13 pm »
NYT projections note that most of the votes coming in are strong R precincts, and that an unsettling number of D strongholds have yet to submit their votes.

Dem votes are always last...gotta see how many they need you know..
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #64 on: December 12, 2017, 09:29:16 pm »
50% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    264,419    51.2%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    245,679    47.5    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    6,814    1.3    
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #65 on: December 12, 2017, 09:29:46 pm »
Dem votes are always last...gotta see how many they need you know..

The "Trunk vote" isn't counted until last.
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #66 on: December 12, 2017, 09:33:06 pm »
Counties surrounding Birmingham are starting to come in slightly stronger than expected for Moore.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #67 on: December 12, 2017, 09:33:38 pm »
NYT projections note that most of the votes coming in are strong R precincts, and that an unsettling number of D strongholds have yet to submit their votes.

Not sure what they're seeing, looks like alot of red counties have fewer precincts in. A number of the Dem winning counties have most of theirs in.
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #68 on: December 12, 2017, 09:34:42 pm »
NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong. Now little less..


« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 09:37:27 pm by Sighlass »
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #69 on: December 12, 2017, 09:36:54 pm »
NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong.

I'm seeing Moore ahead 53.0-45.6 with 59% counted.  The NYT prediction is becoming a mathematical impossibility.
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #70 on: December 12, 2017, 09:37:37 pm »
62% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    350,192    52.8%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    303,232    45.7    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    9,679    1.5    

Jones better start making some moves, the window is closing fast.
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #71 on: December 12, 2017, 09:38:27 pm »
NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong.
They were as high as 80% recently. It is trending back in Moore's favor.

What Moore needs is for Jones's strongholds to underperform compared to the NYT model. Moore has a couple more strongholds in his favor that have yet to be tallied in west Alabama.

It all hinges in how many votes come in from places like Montgomery.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 09:38:47 pm by jmyrlefuller »
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Offline RetBobbyMI

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #72 on: December 12, 2017, 09:38:50 pm »
NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong.
Not even close to the Official Unofficial state SOS site http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1000915
U.S. SENATE SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION 2017 STATEWIDE RESULTS

Total Ballots Cast: 77,143  Total Registered Voters: 3,326,812  Voter Turnout: 2.32%  Counties Reported: 15 of 67  Last Updated: 12/12/2017 08:28:22 PM
The election results presented on these pages are unofficial and presented as a courtesy of the Alabama Secretary of State and Alabama’s Probate Judges. The accuracy of the election results is the responsibility of the Probate Judge for each county reporting.

UNITED STATES SENATOR
        
Doug Jones (DEM)   37.15%     28,613
Roy S. Moore (REP)   61.62%    47,454
Write-In ( )           0.09%            72
Write-In                    1.14%         876
   
                                                 77,015
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #73 on: December 12, 2017, 09:40:17 pm »
That NYT meter was good in 2016... but that needle also I remember swung wildly a few times.  A few states can do that.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #74 on: December 12, 2017, 09:40:58 pm »
There's also the possibility of Option C: if there are enough valid write-ins and the margin is within about one percentage point, neither gets 50. I think that would mean a runoff.
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Offline Sighlass

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #75 on: December 12, 2017, 09:41:39 pm »
NYTimes saying most votes remaining come from Democratic areas...

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #76 on: December 12, 2017, 09:42:45 pm »
Karl Rover said on Fox earlier that if it wasn't Roy Moore but one of the other Republicans, this wouldn't be getting this kind of coverage and the other R would have this safely in the bag.

They showed some contest that Moore won back around 2011 or something, it was still close, 52% to 48% and I think that was against a Democrat.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #77 on: December 12, 2017, 09:44:04 pm »
NYTimes saying most votes remaining come from Democratic areas...


Appears they're using the northeast models that urban areas are predominate Blue bastions.  Not sure that is true in the south.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #78 on: December 12, 2017, 09:44:10 pm »
54% of all Alabamans think abortion should be illegal, 40% say it should be.... so that's a major stat there, at the gym, they have all the satellite news channels running and so, I watched a bit of all of them.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #79 on: December 12, 2017, 09:44:51 pm »
65% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    371,327    53.3%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    315,730    45.3    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    9,848    1.4    
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #80 on: December 12, 2017, 09:47:03 pm »
I wonder if their model assumes the urban counties will continue to report the way of the early precincts.  It could be that mostly black precincts are reporting in Jefferson, Montgomery, Mobile, and margins will shrink.  That's the only path for Moore...

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #81 on: December 12, 2017, 09:48:50 pm »
70% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    401,467    51.8%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    363,307    46.8    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    10,968    1.4    
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #82 on: December 12, 2017, 09:50:43 pm »
Karl Rover said on Fox earlier that if it wasn't Roy Moore but one of the other Republicans, this wouldn't be getting this kind of coverage and the other R would have this safely in the bag.

They showed some contest that Moore won back around 2011 or something, it was still close, 52% to 48% and I think that was against a Democrat.
That's what strikes me so odd about these sexual assault/pedophile claims. Those accusations could have sunk Moore's career then as much as now. He's always been polarizing, even in Alabama. Yet they never did. It screams of outside meddling, conjured by people outside Alabama who had a vested interest in Jones winning.

We'll find out if they get their wish in a few minutes. If they do, we'd better be scared.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #83 on: December 12, 2017, 09:53:22 pm »
75% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    432,489    50.5%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    411,449    48.1    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    11,629    1.4    

It's a race again.
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #84 on: December 12, 2017, 09:55:25 pm »
Still waiting on a few Moore-leaning precincts in the northeastern part of the state. There are also still votes to be counted down around Mobile, which is about evenly split.


Curiously, Dallas County is the only county that hasn't had a single precinct report. It's expected to go for Jones, which might be a big factor in NYT's model.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #85 on: December 12, 2017, 09:56:37 pm »
Hard to believe Jefferson will continue to break 4:1 for Jones...

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #86 on: December 12, 2017, 09:57:17 pm »
Fox News has it for Jones based on their projections, though they are not calling a winner yet.  The gap seems to be closing rather quickly.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #87 on: December 12, 2017, 09:58:27 pm »
Still waiting on a few Moore-leaning precincts in the northeastern part of the state. There are also still votes to be counted down around Mobile, which is about evenly split.


Curiously, Dallas County is the only county that hasn't had a single precinct report. It's expected to go for Jones, which might be a big factor in NYT's model.

I noticed that. Kinda bothers me, that's right out of the Dem playbook.
The Republic is lost.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #88 on: December 12, 2017, 09:59:59 pm »
More populated counties take longer to report.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #89 on: December 12, 2017, 10:00:13 pm »
Larry Elder whose roots are in Alabama said Huntsville has some solid Republican areas but that doesn't mean it is a Roy Moore area. Hmm.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #90 on: December 12, 2017, 10:00:40 pm »
That's what strikes me so odd about these sexual assault/pedophile claims. Those accusations could have sunk Moore's career then as much as now. He's always been polarizing, even in Alabama. Yet they never did. It screams of outside meddling, conjured by people outside Alabama who had a vested interest in Jones winning.

We'll find out if they get their wish in a few minutes. If they do, we'd better be scared.


For about the last year,  I have been operating on the assumption that there is a corps of forces that want to keep the money spigot flowing in  Washington,   and among other assets,  they have the media.   

I've noted that others are calling them "cloud people"  while ordinary folk are given the name "dirt people",   and this social and financial elite,  roughly located between New York and Washington,  have been controlling the rest of the nation for a long time. 


Not much to get scared about.   From what I can discern,   this "establishment"  is just the way things have been.  Waking up to the fact doesn't make it any more of a problem than it already was.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #91 on: December 12, 2017, 10:02:44 pm »
OAN predicting Moore?   http://www.oann.com/roy-moore-wins-alabama-senate-seat/  Be cautious I guess.... when someone reports such.


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« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 10:03:10 pm by TomSea »

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #92 on: December 12, 2017, 10:03:55 pm »
81% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    475,540    49.7%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    466,498    48.8    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    14,054    1.5    

Virtual tie now.
The Republic is lost.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #93 on: December 12, 2017, 10:04:53 pm »
WTH?

Quote
December 12, 2017

OAN Newsroom

 

Roy Moore wins the Alabama Senate election and will fill the seat left vacant by Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

Moore beat out Doug Jones, a democrat who President Trump has said is weak on crime and immigration.

Despite attacks from democrats about unverified allegations from nearly 40-years ago, Moore will keep the seat red and republicans will maintain a 52 to 48 majority in the Senate.

http://www.oann.com/roy-moore-wins-alabama-senate-seat/

I don't know about this. They'll look silly if they are wrong.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #94 on: December 12, 2017, 10:05:47 pm »
Jones is going to win.  51-49 senate.

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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #95 on: December 12, 2017, 10:05:50 pm »
OAN predicting Moore?   http://www.oann.com/roy-moore-wins-alabama-senate-seat/  Be cautious I guess.... when someone reports such.


One American News Now.

Just wow, talk about taking a huge risk. OANN just put their credibility on the line there and I don't see it was a wise move to do so.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #96 on: December 12, 2017, 10:06:07 pm »
OAN predicting Moore?   http://www.oann.com/roy-moore-wins-alabama-senate-seat/  Be cautious I guess.... when someone reports such.


One American News Now.


What a bizarre article. It has me confused about why they would publish such a thing? Strange.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #97 on: December 12, 2017, 10:07:01 pm »
WTH?

I don't know about this. They'll look silly if they are wrong.
It could be a leaked draft.
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #98 on: December 12, 2017, 10:07:09 pm »
WTH?

I don't know about this. They'll look silly if they are wrong.

They already look silly....
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Re: Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election
« Reply #99 on: December 12, 2017, 10:07:24 pm »
85% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    510,308    49.4%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    506,451    49.0    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    15,798    1.5    
The Republic is lost.