Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election

[240B]

Roy Moore    Republican    41,524    53.0%   
Doug Jones    Democrat    35,776    45.7   
Total Write-Ins    —    974    1.2

Looking way better for Moore.

Too bad we didn't have more wacko, pervert, commie, Leftist, celebrities campaigning for Jones. It would be 80/20 by now.
So, I guess they never did use Obama's robocall. Or, looking at the results maybe they did?

[Free Vulcan]

Too bad we didn't have more wacko, pervert, commie, Leftist, celebrities campaigning for Jones. It would be 80/20 by now.
So, I guess they never did use Obama's robocall. Or, looking at the results maybe they did?

My grandparents were from Alabama, still got alot of cousins there. Obama and the celebrities probably worked against Jones.

[Free Vulcan]

15% of precincts reporting

Roy Moore    Republican    75,384    50.1%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    73,177    48.6    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    1,901    1.3    

Looks like the urban areas came in.

[jmyrlefuller]

My grandparents were from Alabama, still got alot of cousins there. Obama and the celebrities probably worked against Jones.

One could call it the Jon Ossoff effect: they played their hand too hard on a populace that is not inclined to believe them.

It is still early, though: there are lots of votes in the cities yet to be tallied (though a big chunk of Birmingham just came in).

[Free Vulcan]

21% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    112,867    51.8%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    101,972    46.8    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    2,861    1.3

Starting to go Moore again.

[Cyber Liberty]

Fox Business:  Moore's up, 143,000 to 122, 000.  26%

[Free Vulcan]

30% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    168,243    52.0%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    151,114    46.7    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    4,329    1.3    

[Sighlass]

So, I guess they never did use Obama's robocall. Or, looking at the results maybe they did?

Doug did use them, he has hired people to drive vans in black communities with loudspeakers broadcasting it trying to get the vote out. One of the ladies in my gun group put up a video of them doing it.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

15% of precincts reporting

Roy Moore    Republican    75,384    50.1%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    73,177    48.6    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    1,901    1.3    

Looks like the urban areas came in.

Pretty sure no one cares what Urban thinks this go around

[Free Vulcan]

40% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    218,933    51.8%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    198,524    46.9    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    5,576    1.3    

[Cyber Liberty]

Decision Desk broke down for me....

[cato potatoe]

Looking bad for Moore right now, but the margins could shrink in urban counties and pan out in his favor.  We shall see...

[jmyrlefuller]

NYT projections note that most of the votes coming in are strong R precincts, and that an unsettling number of D strongholds have yet to submit their votes.

[mystery-ak]

NYT projections note that most of the votes coming in are strong R precincts, and that an unsettling number of D strongholds have yet to submit their votes.

Dem votes are always last...gotta see how many they need you know..

[Free Vulcan]

50% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    264,419    51.2%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    245,679    47.5    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    6,814    1.3    

[Cyber Liberty]

Dem votes are always last...gotta see how many they need you know..

The "Trunk vote" isn't counted until last.

[jmyrlefuller]

Counties surrounding Birmingham are starting to come in slightly stronger than expected for Moore.

[Free Vulcan]

NYT projections note that most of the votes coming in are strong R precincts, and that an unsettling number of D strongholds have yet to submit their votes.

Not sure what they're seeing, looks like alot of red counties have fewer precincts in. A number of the Dem winning counties have most of theirs in.

[Sighlass]

NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong. Now little less..

[Cyber Liberty]

NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong.

I'm seeing Moore ahead 53.0-45.6 with 59% counted.  The NYT prediction is becoming a mathematical impossibility.

[Free Vulcan]

62% precincts reporting:

Roy Moore    Republican    350,192    52.8%    
Doug Jones    Democrat    303,232    45.7    
Total Write-Ins    â€”    9,679    1.5    

Jones better start making some moves, the window is closing fast.

[jmyrlefuller]

NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong.

They were as high as 80% recently. It is trending back in Moore's favor.

What Moore needs is for Jones's strongholds to underperform compared to the NYT model. Moore has a couple more strongholds in his favor that have yet to be tallied in west Alabama.

It all hinges in how many votes come in from places like Montgomery.

[RetBobbyMI]

NYsLimes has Doug projected to win at 72% now. Hoping they are wrong.

Not even close to the Official Unofficial state SOS site http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1000915
U.S. SENATE SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION 2017 STATEWIDE RESULTS

Total Ballots Cast: 77,143  Total Registered Voters: 3,326,812  Voter Turnout: 2.32%  Counties Reported: 15 of 67  Last Updated: 12/12/2017 08:28:22 PM
The election results presented on these pages are unofficial and presented as a courtesy of the Alabama Secretary of State and Alabama’s Probate Judges. The accuracy of the election results is the responsibility of the Probate Judge for each county reporting.

UNITED STATES SENATOR
        
Doug Jones (DEM)   37.15%     28,613
Roy S. Moore (REP)   61.62%    47,454
Write-In ( )           0.09%            72
Write-In                    1.14%         876
   
                                                 77,015

[TomSea]

That NYT meter was good in 2016... but that needle also I remember swung wildly a few times.  A few states can do that.

[jmyrlefuller]

There's also the possibility of Option C: if there are enough valid write-ins and the margin is within about one percentage point, neither gets 50. I think that would mean a runoff.