I meant to answer this earlier, but real life intervenes sometimes. :)
Okay, Now I have a better grasp of your thinking on this, and were we in the 1980s or 1990s, I might find that argument persuasive, but I see this current time period as being very dangerous. I see the geo political situation deteriorating to a 1960s cold war mentality, (but with more, and more dangerous players!) and I see the economic situation as 1929ish. You have more confidence in the future stability of this nation and this world than I do.
Well, guys like INVAR say it already is too late. Others said in 2012 that if we didn't win then, it was all over. Now, it's either win in 2016, or else. So to a certain extent, it reminds me of Al Gore and his "if we don't stop carbon emissions in 10 years it will be too late" claim. Okay Al, we didn't do what you said, and ten years have passed. So can you shut up already? In other words, I'm skeptical of the claim that we are at such a critical point that only the next four years matter, and we should discard what it means for 2020 and beyond. Again, I wouldn't consider that a legitimate argument but for GOP control of the House.
In terms of economics, I think that if Trump actually goes through with the trade war stuff, that's likely to be as damaging as anything Hillary might do at least in terms of the next 4 years. Hillary is more likely to make major structural changes that have a longer-lasting effect, but I think we're safe from most of those if we hang on to the House. Internationally...I just don't know how much different Trump will be than Hillary. I think he'll be better, but by how much....I'm just not sure.
As I said, Trump's VP pick and cabinet choices will be big for me, because I think they're fair harbingers of what he will do with the Supreme Court. But with a decent VP, good cabinet, and solid judicial nominees, that puts him so far ahead of Hillary that it doesn't matter as much to me that I'm voting for Trump.
My own personal biases are also leading me to focus a lot on military issues. I
really want to hear Trump speak directly on the issue of forcing service chiefs to integrate women into combat arms units. I can live him saying "I'm going to leave it up to each Service", but I cannot live with him agreeing with current policy of forced integration. That would probably be a deal breaker for me.
is
I think we are on the razor's edge of catastrophe here.
I agree. I'm just not convinced that Trump is enough to keep us from going over the edge. And if he isn't, then I'd rather be set up as well for 2020 as possible. Because if the disaster (particularly economically) is as bad as it may be, that could be a major chance for a historic realignment
if we have the right conservative running.
I should add this -- to me, the most important battle to be won isn't over immigration, or defense, or health care, but over the minds of the young, because if we don't change the trajectory of the 35-unders, we're toast. Because then they'll be a bunch of socialists raising a bunch of socialists, and we'll never recover from that. And Trump's core flaw -- in my opinion -- is that he is not,
in any respect, an advocate of small-government conservativism. So I believe that a Trump Presidency is likely to cement all those young people as anti-conservatives. Whereas a failed Hillary Presidency cracks open that door in 2020 for what may be a real shot.
But the problem with all this argument on my side is that it is admittedly speculative, and I completely understand where you're coming from. That's why I'm truly an undecided voter at this point (though I'd never vote for Hillary), and why I'm desperately hoping that Trump does enough to make me think he's the better (if very imperfect) choice in both the short and long term.