Wave goodbye to the blue wave? GOP starting to think they could hold the House

[mystery-ak]

Wave goodbye to the blue wave? GOP starting to think they could hold the House
by Al Weaver
 | October 23, 2018 10:02 PM


They're whispering it, but House Republicans are beginning to think they just might have a chance.

After believing for months that a Democratic landslide was on the way, many Republicans are now daring to hope that they'll either keep the House majority or lose it by the slimmest of margins.

According to an informal poll of ten GOP House members, aides, and operatives two weeks before election day, neither party will have more than a five-seat majority. If it happens that way, the GOP will — against the odds — have overcome their own initially unenthusiastic base and seemingly boundless energy among Democrats essentially to fight to a draw.

The Senate battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh seems to have helped motivate GOP voters, along with ongoing job creation and economic growth that has given Republicans — and President Trump — something to crow about.

"For the first time in months, we have the wind at our backs. Now we have to figure out a way to keep it up for two weeks," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. "In the last 30 days, the president has done the hardest thing in American politics: to both excite and unite the Republican base."

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/congress/wave-goodbye-to-the-blue-wave-gop-starting-to-think-they-could-hold-the-house

[IsailedawayfromFR]

The only reason the media is drumming up this 'blue wave' nonsense is that history shows it is typical that a midterm pullback happens for the party is in power.

Nothing else out there suggests the Dems rolling in.  Economy is great, most fear illegals, Pelosi is hated.

[libertybele]

The only reason the media is drumming up this 'blue wave' nonsense is that history shows it is typical that a midterm pullback happens for the party is in power.

Nothing else out there suggests the Dems rolling in.  Economy is great, most fear illegals, Pelosi is hated.

Polls are polls.  The DEMS haven't done squat to show that they've done anything for this country except to try to put up barriers so that this administration can't succeed and manipulating their base into thinking that the GOP is the party of sex offenders and anti-woman such as in the Kavanaugh case.  They've only proven how despicable and corrupt they really are.

[Sanguine]

It may hinge partially on how Trump handles the central American invasions.

[Jazzhead]

The only reason the media is drumming up this 'blue wave' nonsense is that history shows it is typical that a midterm pullback happens for the party is in power.

Nothing else out there suggests the Dems rolling in.  Economy is great, most fear illegals, Pelosi is hated.

Agreed, but the one thing seemingly in favor of the Dems has been the enthusiasm gap -  Dems hate the President and see this as their first opportunity to repudiate him.   

The task for the GOP has been to close that gap,  and, as many have observed,  Dem overreaching and arrogance on the Kavanaugh nomination appears to have done that.   Add to that an approaching wave of thousands of migrants which speaks clearly to Trump's base that a Wall is urgently needed,  and reinforces in voters' minds the Dems' 360 degree turnaround in favor of open borders.   

[bilo]

"For the first time in months, we have the wind at our backs. Now we have to figure out a way to keep it up for two weeks," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. "In the last 30 days, the president has done the hardest thing in American politics: to both excite and unite the Republican base."


I know Pres. Trump is doing all he can to help Pubs, but I think the thing that energized the base was the Rats. They scared the hell out of us with how they treated Kavanaugh. I hope the Pubs hold the House and even gain seats, but it sure isn't because of anything they've done. They really haven't done anything on the two big legislative issues that Trump ran on; immigration and obamacare.

If we are trying to read tea leaves, I don't think the Pubs hold the House. The Dow keeps going down and that's usually a pretty good indicator.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Agreed, but the one thing seemingly in favor of the Dems has been the enthusiasm gap -  Dems hate the President and see this as their first opportunity to repudiate him.   

The task for the GOP has been to close that gap,  and, as many have observed,  Dem overreaching and arrogance on the Kavanaugh nomination appears to have done that.   Add to that an approaching wave of thousands of migrants which speaks clearly to Trump's base that a Wall is urgently needed,  and reinforces in voters' minds the Dems' 360 degree turnaround in favor of open borders.

agree with all of that except the enthusiasm gap.  I think you have it reversed.
Crowds of Dems and Republicans on same day with their leaders.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

"For the first time in months, we have the wind at our backs. Now we have to figure out a way to keep it up for two weeks," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. "In the last 30 days, the president has done the hardest thing in American politics: to both excite and unite the Republican base."


I know Pres. Trump is doing all he can to help Pubs, but I think the thing that energized the base was the Rats. They scared the hell out of us with how they treated Kavanaugh. I hope the Pubs hold the House and even gain seats, but it sure isn't because of anything they've done. They really haven't done anything on the two big legislative issues that Trump ran on; immigration and obamacare.

If we are trying to read tea leaves, I don't think the Pubs hold the House. The Dow keeps going down and that's usually a pretty good indicator.

The Dow invariably goes down during the month of October.

Here's a seasonal analysis of the Dow over a ten year period.  Note October is the worst month.

[libertybele]

It may hinge partially on how Trump handles the central American invasions.

Oh, without a doubt.  This is his ultimate test. I believe that most aren't all warm and fuzzy with the invasion upon us and aren't speaking up as they don't want to sound racist or heartless.  Right now, it's getting close to home.  I'd say the concern with Russian collusion or his dealings with the Saudis are now on the back burner.

He's a very smart man and usually stays one step ahead of things, but I don't think he saw this one coming.

[libertybele]

"For the first time in months, we have the wind at our backs. Now we have to figure out a way to keep it up for two weeks," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. "In the last 30 days, the president has done the hardest thing in American politics: to both excite and unite the Republican base."


I know Pres. Trump is doing all he can to help Pubs, but I think the thing that energized the base was the Rats. They scared the hell out of us with how they treated Kavanaugh. I hope the Pubs hold the House and even gain seats, but it sure isn't because of anything they've done. They really haven't done anything on the two big legislative issues that Trump ran on; immigration and obamacare.

If we are trying to read tea leaves, I don't think the Pubs hold the House. The Dow keeps going down and that's usually a pretty good indicator.

The DOW is going down because of why?  Because of Trump's trade wars or because the Feds raised rates? Kind of ironic don't you think that for the most part the market has been climbing like gang busters since trump was elected and just weeks before the mid terms it starts to tank.  I don't think many would feel that the market is going to do better with a DEM majority.  Just sayin'.

[the_doc]

It may hinge partially on how Trump handles the central American invasions.

I believe we can trust Trump to be both shrewd and firm.  And if the White House handles the mess shrewdly and firmly, with good military discipline and good rules of engagement--and without too many gaffs on camera or on Twitter--the inevitable border confrontation will likely benefit the GOP, not the Rats.  Why?  Because a majority of the undecideds will SURELY see WHY Trump and the GOP have been saying that we need a WALL.

[truth_seeker]

but the one thing seemingly in favor of the Dems has been the enthusiasm gap - 

Look for Bradley effect. Trump voters don't admit publicly they support him.

And Trump voters want to mess up pollsters.

Thousands marching here, when dems areon record wanting to end ICE.


And violent acts taking place, with several prominent dems video inciting.

[libertybele]

I believe we can trust Trump to be both shrewd and firm.  And if the White House handles the mess shrewdly and firmly, with good military discipline and good rules of engagement--and without too many gaffs on camera or on Twitter--the inevitable border confrontation will likely benefit the GOP, not the Rats.  Why?  Because a majority of the undecideds will SURELY see WHY Trump and the GOP have been saying that we need a WALL.

I hear what you're saying, but I think most have already decided on a wall or no wall.  Most that don't want a wall see it as a humanitarian issue. This may change a few minds, but the wall isn't the issue really here.  If granted asylum by the UN some could wind up here anyways; that's what Pompeo and Trump have agreed to.  I highly doubt Trump or Pompeo thought this many would be heading are way though.

[Dexter]

I think y'all should have been playing up this blue wave for months. Get all the young Democrats comfortable and not worried. Next thing you know they all forgot to go vote.

[the_doc]

I hear what you're saying, but I think most have already decided on a wall or no wall.  Most that don't want a wall see it as a humanitarian issue. This may change a few minds, but the wall isn't the issue really here. 

Maybe you're right about minds already being made up;  maybe I shouldn't have emphasized the "undecideds."  But suffice it to say that I happen to think a border incident could swing a huge number of the "concerned humanitarians" into favoring a wall after all.  A lot of Americans will finally see that the humanitarian issue is a bogus humanitarian issue--i.e., a bogus basis for their previous, too-quick decision to oppose a wall.  A lot of formerly non-thoughtful folks will finally say "Yeah, it would be lovely if we could take in all the tired and poor, but we can't take all of the tired and poor. Besides, the folks in the Caravan(s) don't all seem to be especially nice folks.  Hmmm..."

In short, I think a tense confrontation between the military and the Caravan would shock some sense into those who had previously decided against building the wall,

The only regret I would have concerning a proposed wall is the fact that I would hate to have a fence cutting through the south end of one of my favorite spots on Earth, the Big Bend National Park, fencing us off from the Rio Grande (down which I have rafted, floating through spectacular canyons).  But my love of the environment amounts to a good example of a bogus  reason to reject a wall.  We have a Republic to protect.    If we become a Global Socialist nation, we probably won't be in a position to enjoy the scenic beauty of the Rio Grande country anyway.

[Fishrrman]

bilo  wrote:
"I hope the Pubs hold the House and even gain seats"

Fishrrman's credo:
Reality is what it is. It is not what we believe it to be.

I'll be Cheshire-cat satisfied with 50% + 1.
If we hold more than that, I'll be jumpin' up and down cheerin' !!

[libertybele]

Maybe you're right about minds already being made up;  maybe I shouldn't have emphasized the "undecideds."  But suffice it to say that I happen to think a border incident could swing a huge number of the "concerned humanitarians" into favoring a wall after all.  A lot of Americans will finally see that the humanitarian issue is a bogus humanitarian issue--i.e., a bogus basis for their previous, too-quick decision to oppose a wall.  A lot of formerly non-thoughtful folks will finally say "Yeah, it would be lovely if we could take in all the tired and poor, but we can't take all of the tired and poor. Besides, the folks in the Caravan(s) don't all seem to be especially nice folks.  Hmmm..."

In short, I think a tense confrontation between the military and the Caravan would shock some sense into those who had previously decided against building the wall,

The only regret I would have concerning a proposed wall is the fact that I would hate to have a fence cutting through the south end of one of my favorite spots on Earth, the Big Bend National Park, fencing us off from the Rio Grande (down which I have rafted, floating through spectacular canyons).  But my love of the environment amounts to a good example of a bogus  reason to reject a wall.  We have a Republic to protect.    If we become a Global Socialist nation, we probably won't be in a position to enjoy the scenic beauty of the Rio Grande country anyway.

Well, so far we have unarmed guards and mobs of people applying for asylum.  What's to happen and how things will be handled IF they cross over without being granted asylum remains to be seen of course.  It's Trumps call.  Wall at this point is a mute issue.  If they are granted asylum some will get into this country anyways.

Yes indeed.  WE (the people) HAVE A REPUBLIC TO PROTECT.  It may very well come to just that.

[Dexter]

A lot of Americans will finally see...

You better cross those fingers tight! People are pretty damn stubborn in their ways.

[libertybele]

bilo  wrote:
"I hope the Pubs hold the House and even gain seats"

Fishrrman's credo:
Reality is what it is. It is not what we believe it to be.

I'll be Cheshire-cat satisfied with 50% + 1.
If we hold more than that, I'll be jumpin' up and down cheerin' !!

I'll be jumping up and down cheering when Trump tells the UN he will accept NO refugees and tells them that once anyone from the mob crosses over the border he will see it as a declaration of war and will then send armed guards.

[Dexter]

I'll be jumping up and down cheering when Trump tells the UN he will accept NO refugees and tells them that once anyone from the mob crosses over the border he will see it as a declaration of war and will then send armed guards.

"Attention Mexico: Assistance in the prevention of illegal immigration to the United States is compulsory. Noncompliance will result in the annexation of your country."

Bet that'd get their attention.

[To-Whose-Benefit?]

"Attention Mexico: Assistance in the prevention of illegal immigration to the United States is compulsory. Noncompliance will result in the annexation of your country."

Bet that'd get their attention.

Yeah, but then what would we DO with it?

If we annexed Mexico the drain our resources would make California look like Disneyland.

[Free Vulcan]

There House has around 30 toss ups right now, two weeks out, so it's hard to nail down a prediction at this point.

I think the GOP will lose no more than 4 and possibly gain as many as 4 seats. Senate looks like it might see a gain of 5 or 6.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

I think y'all should have been playing up this blue wave for months. Get all the young Democrats comfortable and not worried. Next thing you know they all forgot to go vote.

Make pot legal the first week in Nov?

[Frank Cannon]

Looks like an excellent place for a TRUMP IS GOD!!!!!!!

[RoosGirl]

Looks like an excellent place for a TRUMP IS GOD!!!!!!!

Are you saying Trump may have something to do with whether the Republicans win?