Eh, I'm not sure about that. I'm not saying the tweet was smart -- it was too aggressive -- but I think there are some underlying factors that make a deal likely. The HFC will dig in their heels in the short term because of hurt feelings, but the underlying dynamics are against that lasting.
The HFC cannot/will not agree to less than a full appeal as long as there is a chance of attaining that goal. Not only do they believe that is the best policy choice, but their particular constituents demand it. So they have to make a stand... for awhile, at least. They must make clear to everyone that they are doing their utmost to fulfill their end of the "full repeal" promise
But I also don't think the HFC wants to see either 1) no deal at all get passed, so that full-throated ObamaCare remains in place, 2) a bargain that includes some Democrats, and is even worse than the AHCA. 1) also makes much more likely that the Dems regain control of the House in 2018. I think if the choice comes down something akin to the AHCA, or either of those two options of something worse than the AHCA, enough of the HFC will agree to a modified AHCA for it to pass. With some changes so the HFC can claim they achieved some good by holding out the first time around.
Eh, I don't know. I would hope you're right about this, but my sense of the FC is that they much prefer to be courted, as opposed getting their hands dirty in the messy political process. Hopefully I'm wrong about that.
As for their willingness to work with Trump (which is what I was actually talking about, even if it didn't quite read that way), I think this tweet probably ends up being the deal-breaker for them. They already tried the face-to-face thing with Trump and lost; then Trump started bad-mouthing them; and now he's declared war on them. Three strikes.
And the "moderates" will go to wherever the deal is going to be made, which some say will be between Trump and the Democrats. So ... they'll look leftward.
The AHCA was a mistake, for various reasons, but it's not going to make or break Paul Ryan. Rather, it's what happens next that makes or breaks him -- or any Republican Speaker, for that matter. This is the point where Ryan and his majority leadership must find a way to get this fractious group of Republicans to work together. He'll need to reach out to the FC and they'll need to respond; and he'll need to reach out to the "moderates" and they'll need to respond, and all sides are going to have to get serious about putting together legislation that can move things in the right direction.