Cruz strategist: Trump has a math problem

[mlizzy]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/cruz-strategist-trump-has-a-math-problem-224294

Cruz strategist: Trump has a math problem
Jeff Roe, Ted Cruz’s campaign manager, tells 'Off Message' that Trump’s allergy to analytics could be fatal.
Glenn Thrush | 06/14/16 05:23 AM EDT


Bridget Mulcahy/POLITICO

Jeff Roe, a burly and self-deprecating 43-year-old former baseball umpire and onetime howitzer-crew hand, estimates that the presumptive Republican nominee is costing himself from 2.5 to 5.5 percentage points nationally by refusing to invest more time, energy and cash in data, analytics and a first-rate ground operation.

By any calculation those are precious points that Trump, who faces an uphill climb against Hillary Clinton on the electoral map — and has trailed the Democratic nominee in most polls — can’t afford to lose.

“He dumped our ass, right? He won, we lost, so let's keep everything in perspective,” Roe told me during a 90-minute interview for POLITICO’s “Off Message” podcast that quickly turned into an intense tutorial in Republican campaign strategy and management — and a warning to the man who beat his boss.

-SNIP-

Cruz, conspicuously, remains the biggest GOP name not to endorse Trump. The reason, Roe said, is partly Trump’s decision to go “very personal” on the senator’s family, but also a professional calculation (with overtones of sweet revenge): Despite Trump’s claim that he’ll bring new independents into the process, 2016 promises to be the same-old base election and he’ll need the hard-core conservatives “Lyin’ Ted” was so good at galvanizing.

Is it possible Cruz won’t endorse?

“Gosh. Yeah. Yeah, for sure, that's possible,” said Roe, adding that he’s had only “sporadic” contact with Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, talking or texting a half-dozen times since Cruz suspended his campaign a month back. “I mean, if you learn anything from “The Art of the Deal”, [it] is you have leverage, you have something that somebody wants. Don’t ever act like you want to make a deal until you make a deal, OK?”

Then he smiled and eased back in his chair. “Trump told Ted, ‘I don't need his votes,’” Roe said, with relish. “OK? So that’s one way to look at it. If, at some point in the campaign, he believes he needs the votes and he believes that [they’re] key to him winning, then the conservatives will have leverage, and I think that's really damn important leverage. ... [We’ll be] able to hold him accountable.”

He refused to say whether Trump has asked Cruz to climb on board yet.

-SNIP-

When Cruz finally got tough, Trump began dodging debates — and Roe predicted he’ll soon find an excuse to limit his onstage interactions with Clinton despite the widespread view that Trump’s attacks will make Clinton look weak and beatable.

“I don't know that they'll have one. ... I bet if they do, they only have one,” he said of potential debates. “Everybody’s going to bake it into the cake that she’s going to win, and he’s going to look like a fool and say the same things over and over. She will have the apparatus to have the time to prepare. Trump’s his own guy. He’ll be tired.

“I’m sure he’s going to do one, and he’ll call it a draw. He’ll win the Drudge poll afterwards,” Roe added.

[musiclady]

“Trump told Ted, ‘I don't need his votes,’”

Trump supporters also told every other candidate's supporters that they didn't need us to win...... that the "patriots" would get the job done.  Now they're trying to bully us into supporting their bully.

I think it would be a big mistake for Cruz to back Trump after the filth Trump leveled at his family, and of course the fact that Trump doesn't have a Conservative or ethical bone in his body.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Cruz strategist: Trump has a math problem

[catfish1957]

Trump supporters also told every other candidate's supporters that they didn't need us to win...... that the "patriots" would get the job done.  Now they're trying to bully us into supporting their bully.

I think it would be a big mistake for Cruz to back Trump after the filth Trump leveled at his family, and of course the fact that Trump doesn't have a Conservative or ethical bone in his body.

Yep, me too. The Orange Turd admits he doesn't need our votes.  F Him.

[skeeter]

Trump supporters also told every other candidate's supporters that they didn't need us to win...... that the "patriots" would get the job done.  Now they're trying to bully us into supporting their bully.

And every snarky post of their's makes that less likely.

Basic psychology.

[ConstitutionRose]

 

Trump supporters also told every other candidate's supporters that they didn't need us to win...... that the "patriots" would get the job done.  Now they're trying to bully us into supporting their bully.

I think it would be a big mistake for Cruz to back Trump after the filth Trump leveled at his family, and of course the fact that Trump doesn't have a Conservative or ethical bone in his body.

  Exactly.

[musiclady]

And every snarky post of their's makes that less likely.

Basic psychology.

You're right, @skeeter .   It's a losing proposition to try to bully decent, ethical people into voting for your guy by being derisive and downright nasty.

And yet........ that's what they keep trying to do, isn't it?

[RedHead]

It appears that Trump is putting less analysis and effort into his presidential campaign than he does for one of his business deals.  Or maybe he does put in as little analysis and effort into his business deals as he does with his presidential campaign.  I'm not sure which is worse.

[RoosGirl]

Sounds to me like the Cruz camp is giving aid to the Trump camp on picking up 2.5 to 5.5%.  Maybe they'll stop sniveling now about Cruz not congratulating and endorsing Trump. 

Nah, probably not.

[debrawiest]

You're right, @skeeter .   It's a losing proposition to try to bully decent, ethical people into voting for your guy by being derisive and downright nasty.

And yet........ that's what they keep trying to do, isn't it?

Proverbs 26:11
Like a dog that returns to his vomit is a fool who repeats his folly.

[chae]

@musiclady

They are just emulating their leader. 

[mlizzy]

Trump supporters also told every other candidate's supporters that they didn't need us to win...... that the "patriots" would get the job done.  Now they're trying to bully us into supporting their bully.

I think it would be a big mistake for Cruz to back Trump after the filth Trump leveled at his family, and of course the fact that Trump doesn't have a Conservative or ethical bone in his body.

In agreement, but am starting to change strategy. While there could be a miracle [Ted being elected the nominee at the convention], he couldn't win the general without the support of Trump's supporters [which he wouldn't have for the most part].

So to get the best man in the White House [depicted here; love you, Ted!] ...



I am praying for Trump! Today, on his [advanced] birthday ["look at him; he's old"] I recited the rosary for him. And didn't even add, "Please dear God, don't let him anywhere near the White House."


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1AtU4JfTbo

Should Trump have a moment of humility [anything's possible with the Lord, right?] and ask True forgiveness from Ted, taking him on as his VP, maybe some #nevertrump could vote for the duo, because .... would it be better to have Ted one step away from the presidency [remember "he's old"], than any other person Trump would select?

[libertybele]

Thanks for the article! My two cents. Without a doubt, Ted had the best ground game going, but Trump took the media by storm and had name recognition on the onset.  We know all too well once Trump realized that Cruz was a force to be reckoned with that he went ballistic on him and if you recall after Ted dropped out; Trump even remarked that he was a really tough opponent. A lot of what Trump did and said was I think in his mind acceptable because he knew he couldn't win any other way and there was a point in time where Trump would no longer debate him and my hunch is Trump knew he would lose.  Trump is going to lose in a debate against Hillary for the very same reason.  Trump doesn't have clue one about basic government functions nor any in depth knowledge of issues.

Cruz has a great love and passion for this country and has stood up for the people and the Constitution most of his life.  Because of his love of country and passion for the Constitution if Trump were to ask him for his endorsement or to be his VP, I think Cruz would consider it, BUT only if he indeed thought they could win against Hillary, and ONLY IF Trump were to make a public apology to his wife and father. I don't think Cruz would jeopardize his political career and accept the VP slot if he wasn't sure they could indeed win. Right now, things aren't looking so good for Trump. Cruz's ground game abilities, political expertise, expertise of the Constitution, and his supporters would help Trump immensely. Trump really needs Cruz right now more than Cruz needs Trump. 

Two things; will Trump swallow his pride and apologize to Cruz and ask him to be his VP and does Cruz think they can work together and win?  My hunch right now is 'no'.

[mlizzy]

I don't think Cruz would jeopardize his political career and accept the VP slot if he wasn't sure they could indeed win. Right now, things aren't looking so good for Trump. Cruz's ground game abilities, political expertise, expertise of the Constitution, and his supporters would help Trump immensely. Trump really needs Cruz right now more than Cruz needs Trump. 

Two things; will Trump swallow his pride and apologize to Cruz and ask him to be his VP and does Cruz think they can work together and win?  My hunch right now is 'no'.

Interesting questions. After reading Jeff Roe's commentary, he leaves these [wide] open, doesn't he? The article was a breath of fresh air to me, like maybe there is hope. [Roe's sarcasm (at the end) was a nice touch, too.]  ^-^

[musiclady]

In agreement, but am starting to change strategy. While there could be a miracle [Ted being elected the nominee at the convention], he couldn't win the general without the support of Trump's supporters [which he wouldn't have for the most part].

So to get the best man in the White House [depicted here; love you, Ted!] ...

I am praying for Trump! Today, on his [advanced] birthday ["look at him; he's old"] I recited the rosary for him. And didn't even add, "Please dear God, don't let him anywhere near the White House."

Should Trump have a moment of humility [anything's possible with the Lord, right?] and ask True forgiveness from Ted, taking him on as his VP, maybe some #nevertrump could vote for the duo, because .... would it be better to have Ted one step away from the presidency [remember "he's old"], than any other person Trump would select?

Fascinating strategy, @mlizzy .  I'm gonna have to ponder it fer a spell, and see what I think.   ^-^

[TomSea]

I am praying for Trump! Today, on his [advanced] birthday ["look at him; he's old"] I recited the rosary for him. And didn't even add, "Please dear God, don't let him anywhere near the White House."

Good point, too bad he isn't much younger like Obama or Bill Clinton.

[libertybele]

There is always hope.  The irony of this situation is at one point in time a news source reported that Trump selected Cruz as his VP. It was touted as a "political earthquake that would shake the political establishment to the core"!  Too bad Trump allowed his ugliness to rear its head. I still am under the impression that Trump is nothing more than a siphon for the DEMS. Time will tell of course.

Read more: http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/breaking-donald-trump-just-named-his-running-mate/#ixzz4BZoI4nqi


http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/breaking-donald-trump-just-named-his-running-mate/

[mlizzy]

I still am under the impression that Trump is nothing more than a siphon for the DEMS. Time will tell of course.

My dear husband tells me, "Oh, yes, Trump wants to win." But if he does, is he going to need someone to do "the having," someone to run the executive mansion?

56) “I probably visited Mar-a-Lago, my 118-room house in Palm Beach, no more than two dozen times in the years I’ve owned it. As for my yacht, The Trump Princess, it is a dazzling trophy and a terrific business tool, but it never really became part of my personal life. For me, you see, the important thing is the getting ... not the having.” (Trump Surviving at the Top, 1990)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/06/14/donald-trump-70-birthday-quotes/85619552/

[Hoodat]

Jeff Roe erroneously assumes that Trump is trying to beat Clinton in November.  That wasn't part of the deal that Bill and Ted reached in Spring 2015.

[DiogenesLamp]

I think it would be a big mistake for Cruz to back Trump after the filth Trump leveled at his family, and of course the fact that Trump doesn't have a Conservative or ethical bone in his body.

Well here I agree with you.   Trump went way over the line in the manner in which he attacked Cruz.   I cannot believe that Cruz will endorse him after what Trump did.   

[Right_in_Virginia]

OMG...the psychobabble never ends with you folks. 

Cruz had his shot ... and it turned out he wasn't very good.  He couldn't even get traction with Southern Evangelicals. 

Damn...  y'all are making Gore look like a good sport. 

[libertybele]

It appears that Trump is putting less analysis and effort into his presidential campaign than he does for one of his business deals.  Or maybe he does put in as little analysis and effort into his business deals as he does with his presidential campaign.  I'm not sure which is worse.

He has billions.  I don't think to him it really matters.  What go under his narcissistic skin was that someone was actually close to beating him. He'll be the GOP nominee and it's hard to predict from that point since I don't really think it's his intent to go all the way to the White House.  He doesn't have a ground game, he's short on campaign finances and ultimately he really doesn't have a clue.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Comment removed by Mod3

Fixed it for you.

[libertybele]

Fixed it for you.

That was a blatant personal attack.  Are you sure this is a battle that you want to get into? Really?

[Right_in_Virginia]

Jeff Roe erroneously assumes that Trump is trying to beat Clinton in November.  That wasn't part of the deal that Bill and Ted reached in Spring 2015.

Paranoid much?