Author Topic: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6  (Read 11915 times)

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Online rustynail

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #350 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 04:44 pm »
:bingo:  The less they know the better.

They are the best at knowing less.

Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #351 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 05:52 pm »
Ah yes. You have solved geopolitics. Why did anyone waste centuries studying diplomacy, deterrence, intelligence, economics, and human behavior when the answer was apparently sitting here all along?

Option one: invade a country of nearly 90 million people, cross mountains and deserts, occupy territory the size of a continent, absorb casualties, trigger regional war, and resurrect the draft.

Option two: use nuclear weapons and hope the radioactive crater inspires a more cooperative attitude.

Brilliant. Truly the elegant simplicity that only comes from reducing a civilization-scale problem to a two-button control panel labeled “Armageddon” and “Armageddon With Paperwork.”

But I will surrender. You win. Let us accept your premise completely.

Iran cannot be deterred. Iran cannot be negotiated with. Iran cannot be pressured. Iran cannot be contained. Because they are “Twelvers,” their religious beliefs supposedly make them uniquely incapable of rational calculation.

Fine.

If that is true, then your solution does not actually solve the problem.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is indeed deeply rooted in Iran’s Twelver Shia revolutionary ideology. It was created to protect the Islamic Republic and operates as a military, political, and intelligence force loyal to that system. But even the IRGC is not simply a theological organization floating above reality. It is an institution with leaders, interests, resources, and a desire to preserve power.

That distinction matters.

History is full of ideological enemies who were still capable of calculating costs and consequences.

The Soviet Union was a nuclear-armed communist empire that openly sought the defeat of the United States. We did not invade Moscow. We did not erase it with nuclear weapons. We used deterrence, pressure, alliances, intelligence, and patience.

China under Mao was revolutionary, hostile, and deeply ideological. Yet strategic competition eventually involved something more complicated than “destroy them or surrender.”

Governments, even hostile governments, generally want to survive.

Now let us examine the two magical options presented.

A D-Day style invasion of Iran?

Iran is not Normandy. It is a mountainous nation of nearly 90 million people with cities, a large military, asymmetric capabilities, and regional allies. A military operation might destroy targets. Occupying and transforming the country would be an entirely different matter.

And the nuclear option?

A nuclear weapon does not destroy knowledge. It does not erase scientists. It does not remove ideology. It does not guarantee that the survivors will not rebuild with greater determination.

So the two choices offered are not really solutions.

They are catastrophes with different timelines.

One creates a potentially endless war.

The other creates a historic act of destruction that may only postpone the original problem.

The absurdity is not recognizing that Iran is dangerous. It is pretending that the only alternatives are surrender or apocalypse.

Real strategy exists in the uncomfortable space between those extremes.

Deterrence.

Containment.

Economic pressure.

Intelligence operations.

Diplomatic pressure backed by force.

The willingness to act when necessary without pretending there is a magic button labeled “Make Iran Disappear.”

The world is not divided between total victory and total defeat.

That is the fantasy version of war.

Reality is far messier.

And history has repeatedly shown that the hardest battles are often won not by the person willing to destroy everything, but by the person who understands exactly how much destruction is actually necessary.

This is an exceptional essay --- and hopefully will be a stand alone column at The Last Wire @Luis Gonzalez

Thank you for posting.

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #352 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 06:02 pm »
Still waiting.
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #354 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 08:04 pm »
Speaking of 'FAKE NEWS':

We got involved in this expanded war based on the lies told by Netanyahu and Mossad on Feb 11 when they presented their "evidence" that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could quickly dismantle the Iranian government.


Still waiting.
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #355 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 08:20 pm »
@Right_in_Virginia

That’s an interesting point, and I’d honestly like to learn more about it.

I’ve seen reporting about the February 11 briefing and the claim that Israeli officials presented a very optimistic assessment of what could happen in Iran. What I haven’t seen is evidence that Netanyahu or Mossad knowingly provided false intelligence to the United States.

Also, hindsight by itself doesn’t prove intent. An intelligence assessment can turn out to be wrong without it having been a deliberate deception. The key question is whether there was evidence at the time that the information was knowingly false.

If you have a source, documents, testimony, or reporting that shows intentional deception, I’d genuinely appreciate you sharing it. I’d like to understand the basis for that conclusion.
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Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #356 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 10:22 pm »
@Right_in_Virginia

I’ve seen reporting about the February 11 briefing and the claim that Israeli officials presented a very optimistic assessment of what could happen in Iran. What I haven’t seen is evidence that Netanyahu or Mossad knowingly provided false intelligence to the United States.

Remember, in June 2025, the US and Israel were arm and arm and shoulder to shoulder:  destroy Iran's nuclear capacity.  In Feb 2026, Netanyahu now wanted regime change in Iran and the US to make it happen.  During the briefing on Feb 11, Netanyahu (personally) and Mossad representatives (electronically) gave three guarantees that had no basis in credible intelligence but formed Israel's basis for toppling the Iranian regime now:
1.  Iran was sufficiently weakened militarily and politically and would be unable to influence operations in the Strait of Hormuz
2.  The Iranian population would rise again in opposition to the Mullahs and the Kurds would join the fight with the Iranian people
3.  This overthrow would take --- at most --- a week or two and presented a slide show of potential Iranian leaders already vetted by Mossad

None of it was true --- which is why Netanyahu would quickly go on to announce plans to bomb Iran to begin this war for regime change.  He forced the US to engage militarily on February 28 to protect US military personnel from Iran retaliation ( Rubio let this cat out of this bag).  It didn't matter to our great ally that in the Trump administration there was still an internal debate underway.

Quote
Also, hindsight by itself doesn’t prove intent. An intelligence assessment can turn out to be wrong without it having been a deliberate deception. The key question is whether there was evidence at the time that the information was knowingly false.

Actually, the key question is what evidence did Netanyahu/Mossad base their guarantees on.   Our intelligence sources and agencies assessed the Israeli presentation to be "farcical" and by one well-known as "bullshit".   To counter this, Netanyahu simply loaded up his bombers and put them on the runway. Then he called Trump.

Quote
If you have a source, documents, testimony, or reporting that shows intentional deception, I’d genuinely appreciate you sharing it. I’d like to understand the basis for that conclusion.

The basis for the conclusion is not rocket science:  For thirty years Netanyahu has grounded his entire political life in the destruction of Iran ---- every UN speech, US speech, interview and breath he's taken had "Iran" in it.  He finally found a US president willing to listen to him about regime change. 

Netanyahu took his best shot ---- and an especially smart move in an election year (Oct 27) when his "Mr, Security" badge is splattered with Israeli blood.

Last, but not least, beyond what's already been published, additional documents, souces or testimony are not available.  A wall has dropped around this topic and leakers have taken to using locked keyboards for their books rather than phone interviews.  Actually, this wall of silence is pretty impressive.  But, smart money's on this silence not lasting beyond the midterms.

In the meantime, just pay attention to the ongoing Trump/Netanyahu interactions and take occasional peeks at the international presses, especially India and Israel .... they seem able to slip in new reporting.

I can send other links, if interested, but none contain the signed confession you seem to be looking for (yet).  happy77




« Last Edit: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 10:24 pm by Right_in_Virginia »

Offline Hoodat

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #357 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 03:05 am »
Actually, the key question is what evidence did Netanyahu/Mossad base their guarantees on.   Our intelligence sources and agencies assessed the Israeli presentation to be "farcical" and by one well-known as "bullshit".

This contradicts your bogus claim that "we got involved in this expanded war based on the lies told by Netanyahu and Mossad on Feb 11".  I.e. if the US rejected two of the assessments, then they didn't get involved based upon them.  Nor can you assess them as 'lies' since they were never followed through.  But hey, at least you finally read the NY Times article.  And now you look like a fool for citing  something that actually disproves your claim.
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

Jim Jones was a socialist Democrat.

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #358 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 03:31 am »
Ah yes. You have solved geopolitics. Why did anyone waste centuries studying diplomacy, deterrence, intelligence, economics, and human behavior when the answer was apparently sitting here all along?
Option one: invade a country of nearly 90 million people, cross mountains and deserts, occupy territory the size of a continent, absorb casualties, trigger regional war, and resurrect the draft.
Option two: use nuclear weapons and hope the radioactive crater inspires a more cooperative attitude.
Brilliant. Truly the elegant simplicity that only comes from reducing a civilization-scale problem to a two-button control panel labeled “Armageddon” and “Armageddon With Paperwork.”
Real strategy exists in the uncomfortable space between those extremes.
Deterrence.
Containment.
Economic pressure.
Intelligence operations.
Diplomatic pressure backed by force.
The willingness to act when necessary without pretending there is a magic button labeled “Make Iran Disappear.”
The world is not divided between total victory and total defeat.
That is the fantasy version of war.
Reality is far messier.
And history has repeatedly shown that the hardest battles are often won not by the person willing to destroy everything, but by the person who understands exactly how much destruction is actually necessary.
@Luis Gonzalez Your assessment is spot on, but you are missing a part. China and Russia are for the most part atheistic. Yes they wanted world Domination, but were not zealots. Islam is by its's very nature zealous fanaticism. Not only are they willing to kill for the cause, they are willing to die in the most spectacular possible. They want to be martyrs for the cause. The more infields they take with them, the greater their reward. This is Japanese Kamikaze pilots on steroids. They have no concept of peaceful coexistence. For them it is islam or death.
That being said I do not have a alternative or plan. But I do know i would rather fight them over there, rather than here.
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
�More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.�-Woody Allen
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #359 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 04:04 am »
Scoop: Trump gave Saudi crown prince his backing for risky strikes on Houthis

Barak Ravid  |  Updated 41 mins ago


President Trump gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) his support for a highly unusual military action against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, according to two U.S. officials.

Why it matters: The Saudi strike on the Sanaa airport Monday and Houthi retaliatory missile attacks that followed were the most serious cross-border escalation since 2022. They could signal the collapse of a four-year, unofficial truce between the parties.

- A renewed military conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could exacerbate regional tensions and broaden the war between the U.S. and Iran.

- The fact that MBS notified Trump in advance and asked for his backing signals that the Saudis are concerned about a larger conflict with the Houthis that will require military and diplomatic support from the U.S.

Behind the scenes: Last week Saudi Arabia told the U.S. it was concerned about the situation and asked for support for possible strikes against the Houthis.

- On Thursday, the Saudi ambassador to Washington met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A day later Rubio spoke to Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.

- Shortly after on Friday, President Trump spoke by phone with the Saudi crown prince, per a U.S. official ...

https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/trump-bin-salman-houthis-yemen

According to reports at the time, the Hooties handed the Saudis their private parts while the Saudis were spending most of the time in sex forts. And so the Saudis lost.
« Last Edit: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 04:08 am by BobfromWB »
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #360 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 04:14 am »
Trump: Iranian People Can’t Return to Streets, They’re Unarmed

Ian Hanchett 13 Jul 2026

On Monday’s “Hugh Hewitt Show,” President Donald Trump said that the Iranian people can’t go back into the streets “because they don’t have guns, and the other side has guns.”

Host Hugh Hewitt asked, “So let me ask you about the Iranian people. You said help was on the way, and you sent it. 40,000 of them got massacred before your help could get there. Is it time for them to go back into the streets?”

Trump answered, “Well, you can’t do that, because they don’t have guns, and the other side has guns. And the number is 52,000 people killed so far. And these are thugs. It’s very hard for people to go back. They can have great bravado. They can hate the regime. They can do everything. But when you start seeing people dropping a little bit left and right, you know they have snipers, and the snipers are up in buildings, four or five of them. And let’s say they form 100-200,000 people and they see one go down with a bullet between the eyes and then they see another one go down with a bullet between the eyes and then they see a third, like, with the women, they had 300,000 women, all of a sudden, one goes down, two goes down, three, four, five, and you know what happens, Hugh? They say let’s get the hell out of here.”

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2026/07/13/trump-iranian-people-cant-return-to-streets-theyre-unarmed/
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Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #361 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 04:58 am »
This contradicts your bogus claim that "we got involved in this expanded war based on the lies told by Netanyahu and Mossad on Feb 11".  I.e. if the US rejected two of the assessments, then they didn't get involved based upon them.  Nor can you assess them as 'lies' since they were never followed through.  But hey, at least you finally read the NY Times article.  And now you look like a fool for citing  something that actually disproves your claim.

*What*, exactly, contradicts the opinion that the expanded war beginning in Feb 2026 was based on false Israeli intelligence? 

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #362 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 05:04 am »
Trump: Iranian People Can’t Return to Streets, They’re Unarmed

Ian Hanchett 13 Jul 2026

Trump answered, “Well, you can’t do that, because they don’t have guns, and the other side has guns. And the number is 52,000 people killed so far.

Now it's 52,000 dead? Have I missed a photo of the funerals and graves? 



« Last Edit: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 05:07 am by Right_in_Virginia »

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #364 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 06:43 am »
mystery-ak et al

We must have an account to watch videos on X.com now
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Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #367 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 08:47 am »
Quote
US opts to keep refuelers at Ben-Gurion Airport, putting 50,000 flight tickets at risk
Jerusalem Post, Jul 14, 2026



Up to 50,000 flight tickets may be canceled during July following an American decision to freeze the evacuation of its refuelers stationed at Ben-Gurion Airport, the Israel Airports Authority (IAA) warned on Thursday.

IAA director-general Sharon Kedmi released a letter expressing concern over the decision. "This delay has immediate and serious operational consequences," he stated.

Transportation Ministry Director-General Moshe Ben Zaken also said additional US refueling aircraft would not be permitted to land at the airport. Israeli air traffic control had reportedly been instructed not to approve any further US refuelers for landing in Israel.

Citizens cannot be harmed; the Defense Ministry must find solutions," Ben Zaken said.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed to The Jerusalem Post that despite concerns, the freeze is in place.

In addition to the freeze, four additional US refuelers landed at Ben-Gurion Airport recently, N12 reported, adding that the planes came from Gulf countries which have recently come under Iranian attack.



https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-902450

Maybe we should cancel all military action and come home.  We wouldn't want to "harm citizens" during peak vacation season.

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #368 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 09:06 am »
So the Minister of Transportation thinks he can slam the brakes on the war to save his country?  I guess Israel has its share of stupid idiots....
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Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience"
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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
-Matthew 6:34


Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #371 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 11:22 am »
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Iran has been "very much destabilized" after being a "big burden on Iraq," and that U.S. oil companies are now entering Iraq at “levels that have never been seen before.”

The president, speaking alongside Iraq’s new prime minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, said “Iran was a big burden on Iraq because they were the bully of the Middle East.” 

“But they're not going to have that problem anymore, because Iran has been very much destabilized. And really, their military power is just a tiny fraction of what it was just four months ago,” Trump added.

"So they're not going to have that problem. I think it's really, in a sense that's given them freedom to do what they have to do. And I think that's one of the reasons that our oil companies are going in there at levels that have never been seen before,” Trump also said.
Posted by Greg Norman-Diamond
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #373 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 12:20 pm »
mystery-ak et al

We must have an account to watch videos on X.com now

That's easy enough to deal with...just set up a throw-away email address using Yahoo or Gmail or some other platform, and set-up the account.  That's what I did.  Easy peasy.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #374 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 12:22 pm »

https://twitter.com/LauraLoomer/status/2077073868322152695

I can't imagine anything that would piss Trump off more than mortally threatening his family.
aka "nasty degenerate SOB," "worst of the worst at Free Republic," "Garbage Troll," "Neocon Warmonger," "Filthy Piece of Trash," "damn $#%$#@!," "Silly f'er," "POS," "war pig," "neocon scumbag," "insignificant little ankle nipper," "@ss-clown," "neocuck," "termite," "Uniparty Deep stater," "Never Trump sack of dog feces," "avid Bidenista," "filthy Ukrainian," "war whore," "fricking chump," "psychopathic POS," "depraved SOB," "Never Trump Moron," "Lazarus," "sock puppet," and "Timber Bunny."

"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act."  ---George Orwell

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #375 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 12:55 pm »
That's easy enough to deal with...just set up a throw-away email address using Yahoo or Gmail or some other platform, and set-up the account.  That's what I did.  Easy peasy.

Nope I do not chose to do so. Going X-less.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #376 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 01:02 pm »
Nope I do not chose to do so. Going X-less.

That's fair.  Don't need X-bots tracking you....
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #377 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 01:49 pm »
mystery-ak et al

We must have an account to watch videos on X.com now

Well...I thought just about everyone had an X account...I see by your later post you don't want one either.  :shrug:
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #378 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 02:56 pm »
   @BobfromWB I have never had X/twitter account, and I can see videos if I click on through to X from here.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #379 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 03:07 pm »
Nope I do not chose to do so. Going X-less.

Same here, I have an old account but will not log into it unless I really really need to... (so far not this year)... I could live with not seeing comments (which bugged me), but I also don't get to see video on twitter unless it is set to show here on TBR. I think some folks allow external viewing but lately a bunch don't for some reason. Often I will just google and find the same stuff on a static website.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #380 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 03:36 pm »
This is from the X AI:

People without an X account can generally view videos from public posts via direct links posted on a forum.

help.x.com

Key Details:Public posts and media: For videos in public X posts, anyone with the link can access and play them without logging in. X explicitly states that links to media are not protected — direct access works for viewers without an account.

How it works in practice: Paste the X post link (e.g., x.com/username/status/123...) into a browser.
The video should play inline or in a viewer, often without forcing a login for public content.
Some users report occasional login prompts or rate limits (especially with heavy browsing), but these are usually bypassable by using incognito mode, waiting, or third-party viewers.

Protected/private accounts: Videos from protected posts have more restrictions. Only approved followers can see them on X, though followers might share media links that still work for others.

Potential Issues and Workarounds:Login walls or rate limits: X has experimented with requiring logins in the past, but public content (including videos) is usually viewable without an account via direct links. If blocked, try:Incognito/private browsing.
Replacing x.com with alternatives like xcancel.com or using public viewers.
Tools that generate clean video embeds or direct playback links

Mobile vs. desktop: Behavior can vary; desktop browsers often work more smoothly without an account.

In short, for public videos shared via links on forums, no X account is needed in most cases. This aligns with X's design for shareable public media. If a specific link doesn't work, it could be due to the post's privacy settings or temporary restrictions.

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #381 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 03:39 pm »
Remember, in June 2025, the US and Israel were arm and arm and shoulder to shoulder:  destroy Iran's nuclear capacity.  In Feb 2026, Netanyahu now wanted regime change in Iran and the US to make it happen.  During the briefing on Feb 11, Netanyahu (personally) and Mossad representatives (electronically) gave three guarantees that had no basis in credible intelligence but formed Israel's basis for toppling the Iranian regime now:
1.  Iran was sufficiently weakened militarily and politically and would be unable to influence operations in the Strait of Hormuz
2.  The Iranian population would rise again in opposition to the Mullahs and the Kurds would join the fight with the Iranian people
3.  This overthrow would take --- at most --- a week or two and presented a slide show of potential Iranian leaders already vetted by Mossad

None of it was true --- which is why Netanyahu would quickly go on to announce plans to bomb Iran to begin this war for regime change.  He forced the US to engage militarily on February 28 to protect US military personnel from Iran retaliation ( Rubio let this cat out of this bag).  It didn't matter to our great ally that in the Trump administration there was still an internal debate underway.

Actually, the key question is what evidence did Netanyahu/Mossad base their guarantees on.   Our intelligence sources and agencies assessed the Israeli presentation to be "farcical" and by one well-known as "bullshit".   To counter this, Netanyahu simply loaded up his bombers and put them on the runway. Then he called Trump.

The basis for the conclusion is not rocket science:  For thirty years Netanyahu has grounded his entire political life in the destruction of Iran ---- every UN speech, US speech, interview and breath he's taken had "Iran" in it.  He finally found a US president willing to listen to him about regime change. 

Netanyahu took his best shot ---- and an especially smart move in an election year (Oct 27) when his "Mr, Security" badge is splattered with Israeli blood.

Last, but not least, beyond what's already been published, additional documents, souces or testimony are not available.  A wall has dropped around this topic and leakers have taken to using locked keyboards for their books rather than phone interviews.  Actually, this wall of silence is pretty impressive.  But, smart money's on this silence not lasting beyond the midterms.

In the meantime, just pay attention to the ongoing Trump/Netanyahu interactions and take occasional peeks at the international presses, especially India and Israel .... they seem able to slip in new reporting.

I can send other links, if interested, but none contain the signed confession you seem to be looking for (yet).  happy77
Thanks for taking the time to lay all of that out. I appreciate the detailed response.

I don’t think we’re actually very far apart on the facts. If those three guarantees were made as you’ve described, they were clearly central to Israel’s argument for moving ahead.

Where I think we differ is on the conclusion. You’re inferring that the guarantees must have been intentional deception because they proved to be unfounded and because of Netanyahu’s long-standing objective regarding Iran. That’s certainly a reasonable hypothesis, but I don’t think it’s proof.

To me, the missing piece is contemporaneous evidence showing that Netanyahu or Mossad knew those guarantees lacked an intelligence basis when they presented them. Internal emails, meeting notes, testimony, intercepted communications, or someone directly involved saying, “We knew this wasn’t supported but presented it anyway.” That’s what would move the argument from a strong inference to evidence of deliberate deception.

The comments from U.S. officials describing the presentation as “farcical” or “bullshit” are interesting because they show there was disagreement inside the U.S. government. But disagreement with an assessment isn’t the same thing as evidence that the assessment was knowingly false.

I guess that’s where we part company. I just don’t see the connection yet. I see a correlation between Netanyahu’s long-held views and what happened, but I don’t yet see evidence that connects those views to intentional deception.

I do appreciate the conversation, though. If more information comes out, or if you run across something that closes that gap, I’d genuinely enjoy reading it. Thanks for the thoughtful exchange.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #382 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 06:08 pm »
This is from the X AI:

People without an X account can generally view videos from public posts via direct links posted on a forum.

help.x.com

Key Details:Public posts and media: For videos in public X posts, anyone with the link can access and play them without logging in. X explicitly states that links to media are not protected — direct access works for viewers without an account.

How it works in practice: Paste the X post link (e.g., x.com/username/status/123...) into a browser.
The video should play inline or in a viewer, often without forcing a login for public content.
Some users report occasional login prompts or rate limits (especially with heavy browsing), but these are usually bypassable by using incognito mode, waiting, or third-party viewers.

Protected/private accounts: Videos from protected posts have more restrictions. Only approved followers can see them on X, though followers might share media links that still work for others.

Potential Issues and Workarounds:Login walls or rate limits: X has experimented with requiring logins in the past, but public content (including videos) is usually viewable without an account via direct links. If blocked, try:Incognito/private browsing.
Replacing x.com with alternatives like xcancel.com or using public viewers.
Tools that generate clean video embeds or direct playback links

Mobile vs. desktop: Behavior can vary; desktop browsers often work more smoothly without an account.

In short, for public videos shared via links on forums, no X account is needed in most cases. This aligns with X's design for shareable public media. If a specific link doesn't work, it could be due to the post's privacy settings or temporary restrictions.

@bigheadfred

I just went on Edge as a guest here...I was able to see the videos from X here without going onto X itself...Is that what you are talking about?

When I post from X [without video] I will open it and copy/paste the whole post here from now on...

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #383 on: Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026 09:52 pm »
*What*, exactly, contradicts the opinion that the expanded war beginning in Feb 2026 was based on false Israeli intelligence?

OK, let's start with the NY Times piece.  It was written by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman who are pimping their new book Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.  Trump, the emperor - let that sink in first.

It begins with this:  "In a series of Situation Room meetings, President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president and a pessimistic intelligence assessment".  No mention of Bibi or Mossad or Israel.  Just Trump instincts and his advisors.

The story starts off with a highly-classified meeting in the White House situation room that somehow these book-writing NY Times reporters were privy to through leakers inside this again highly-classified meeting.  In fact, they had so much detail of this meeting that they knew what chairs Bibi and every person in the meeting sat and what chair Trump would take.  Imagine that.

In this meeting, Netanyahu offered an overall assessment based on a four-part presentation - killing the Ayatollah, crippling their ability to wage war, inciting a popular uprising, and overthrowing the government.  In the presentation, Bibi gave his assessments on how each part could be achieved.  Now the key part here is that Trump hadn't even arrived yet.  Bibi was delivering his assessment to Trump's advisors.  So, once Trump arrived, here is what his advisors told him:

When Mr. Trump joined the meeting, Mr. Ratcliffe briefed him on the assessment. The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: “farcical.”

At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in. “In other words, it’s bullshit,” he said.

Mr. Ratcliffe added that given the unpredictability of events in any conflict, regime change could happen, but it should not be considered an achievable objective.

Several others jumped in, including Mr. Vance, just back from Azerbaijan, who also expressed strong skepticism about the prospect of regime change.

The president then turned to General Caine. “General, what do you think?”

General Caine replied: “Sir, this is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling.”

Mr. Trump quickly weighed the assessment. Regime change, he said, would be “their problem.” It was unclear whether he was referring to the Israelis or the Iranian people. But the bottom line was that his decision on whether to go to war against Iran would not hinge on whether Parts 3 and 4 of Mr. Netanyahu’s presentation were achievable.


Let's focus on parts 3 & 4, the ones you refer to as "lies".  I find that a bit harsh.  It will never be known if the plans of those parts would have worked since they were rejected.  But it definitely did not qualify as a "lie".  Bibi believed it could be done.  And he is still pushing for it even if the US is not.  But for the sake of argument, let's say he was.  Let's say that Bibi had a crystal ball that could see into the future, and he knew there was no way possible to overthrow the Iranian government.  Yet he said we could anyway.  That would qualify as a lie because he was pushing a narrative he knew to be false.  But without that crystal ball, I simply cannot conclude that this was the case.

Now consider again your statement:

We got involved in this expanded war based on the lies told by Netanyahu and Mossad on Feb 11 when they presented their "evidence" that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could quickly dismantle the Iranian government.


These authors (using their day job at the NY Times to push their anti-Trump book) stated unequivocally that Parts 3 and 4 (i.e. the ones you call "lies") were soundly rejected.  And since they were rejected, you cannot make the case that Trump went to war based on something already rejected.  You can't have it both ways, @Right_in_Virginia .
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #384 on: Today at 02:45 am »
@Hoodat I think we all know what her real problem with Netanyahu is....and she's gonna use a hammer to make that jigsaw puzzle piece fit.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #385 on: Today at 04:21 am »
Trump: We ‘Completed’ Goals in Iran, Strikes Will ‘Continue’, Not Sure They’ll Make Deal, Deal Is How War Ends

During a portion of an interview aired on Tuesday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “Special Report,” President Donald Trump said that the objectives of ensuring Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, and degrading Iran’s military are “completed” and strikes on Iran will “continue until I say that’s enough.”

Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst asked, “So, your objectives are to ensure that Iran never has a nuclear weapon, to keep the Strait open, and to degrade the Iranian military. Can those objectives be completed in an air campaign alone or does this require a ground component?”

Trump responded, “I think they’re completed now, honestly. If we left right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild what they have. The only way you can negotiate with these people is through strength, and the only strength is military strength, and that’s what we’ve done. And, literally, two days ago, we had a deal, and then they broke it at the last moment. They broke it.”

Yingst followed up, “Will these strikes continue?”

Trump answered, “They’ll continue until I say that’s enough. They’ll continue. They’ve been — the word the military likes to use is degrade. They’ve been degraded to a very low level, and they have fight. It’s like a great boxer, you think you have him beat, and then, all of a sudden, he comes back and he gives you a shot. They have some fight left, but they don’t have much, and their weapon degrading has been incredible at a level, nobody thought it was possible to do it this quickly.”

Trump also stated that he thinks the war will end with Iran being forced into signing a deal, but he’s also unsure if they will make a deal.

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2026/07/14/trump-we-completed-goals-in-iran-strikes-will-continue-not-sure-theyll-make-deal-deal-is-how-war-ends/



Trump: We’ll Knock Out All of Iran’s Power Plants, Bridges Unless They Come to Table

During a portion of an interview aired on Tuesday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “Special Report,” President Donald Trump stated that energy targets in Iran will be hit and “We’re going to knock out all of their power plants.

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2026/07/14/trump-well-knock-out-all-of-irans-power-plants-bridges-unless-they-come-to-table/
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #386 on: Today at 04:43 am »
Quote
The only way you can negotiate with these people is
to kill them all.

Saying "that's enough" is not how wars are won, 47. Its how political wars are ended ... until the enemy regains enough strength to attack again. Going slowly back to 'peace in out time' ... again.
« Last Edit: Today at 04:46 am by BobfromWB »
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #387 on: Today at 05:03 am »
CENTCOM announces fresh strikes on Iranian military targets


https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/2077338021733478617

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced a fresh round of strikes on Iran intended to degrade the Islamic Republic's military capacities following repeated Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

"At 6 a.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching a wave of strikes against Iran. The strikes are designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," CENTCOM wrote in a Wednesday morning post on X.

The strikes followed multiple rounds of similar U.S. strikes from the previous days.
Posted by Robert McGreevy
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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #388 on: Today at 05:04 am »
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is threatening to shut down additional energy export corridors, issuing a warning to the U.S. on Wednesday.

The IRGC warned Wednesday that the U.S. "must brace for the closure of all other export corridors that benefit the U.S. and its allies," according to Reuters.

"Regional energy exports are either shared by all, or denied to all," the IRGC added.

Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen fired missiles into Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, on Monday, claiming the kingdom bombed a Houthi-controlled airport.

Controlling much of the territory in northwest Yemen, the Houthi terrorists had previously disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, attacking vessels transiting through the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Africa's east coast in 2025.
Posted by Robert McGreevy
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience"
Mark Twain


“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
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Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #389 on: Today at 05:05 am »
Trump won’t rule out Kharg Island takeover: What a US assault could look like

Hundreds of U.S. Marines storm ashore as helicopters thunder overhead, Navy warships and fighter jets establish overwhelming air and sea superiority, and commanders issue one final warning to Iranian forces: surrender or be overrun.

That is how military experts envision the opening hours of a potential U.S. operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island — the tiny but strategically vital island that handles roughly 90% of the Islamic Republic's crude oil exports and has become the centerpiece of Washington's economic pressure campaign against Tehran.

The scenario was thrust back into the spotlight Tuesday after President Donald Trump declined to rule out taking the island. "I can't say that to you because if I did, it would be foolish," Trump told Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst during an exclusive interview on ‘Special Report’ when asked directly whether he planned to seize Kharg island. He added that previous U.S. strikes intentionally avoided the island's oil facilities because they are "a chunk of the world economy."

"There are a lot of ways to skin this cat," retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital in an interview.

This is an excerpt from a story by Efrat Lachter.
Posted by Efrat Lachter
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience"
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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
-Matthew 6:34


Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #390 on: Today at 05:39 am »
Trump won’t rule out Kharg Island takeover: What a US assault could look like

Hundreds of U.S. Marines storm ashore as helicopters thunder overhead, Navy warships and fighter jets establish overwhelming air and sea superiority, and commanders issue one final warning to Iranian forces: surrender or be overrun.

That is how military experts envision the opening hours of a potential U.S. operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island — the tiny but strategically vital island that handles roughly 90% of the Islamic Republic's crude oil exports and has become the centerpiece of Washington's economic pressure campaign against Tehran.

The scenario was thrust back into the spotlight Tuesday after President Donald Trump declined to rule out taking the island. "I can't say that to you because if I did, it would be foolish," Trump told Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst during an exclusive interview on ‘Special Report’ when asked directly whether he planned to seize Kharg island. He added that previous U.S. strikes intentionally avoided the island's oil facilities because they are "a chunk of the world economy."

"There are a lot of ways to skin this cat," retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital in an interview.

This is an excerpt from a story by Efrat Lachter.
Posted by Efrat Lachter
The alternative is to simply flatten it with General Curtis LeMay's approach
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #391 on: Today at 05:42 am »
On Air
July 15, 2026
5:26
CLIP
US launches military campaign against Iran in rare daytime operation

Fox News' Trey Yingst reports the latest on the strikes against the Iranian regime and his conversation with President Donald Trump about the latest on the escalation in the Mideast.

U.S. Central Command launches fresh strikes against Iranian targets, indicating a significant escalation of military action in the Middle East. President Donald Trump offers exclusive insights to Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst about Iran's remaining missile arsenal and Israel's engagement in southern Lebanon. These developments follow Trump's earlier commitment to escalating pressure on the Iranian regime.
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #392 on: Today at 05:55 am »
Quote
U.S. protest prompts Israel to lift Ben Gurion ban on U.S. refueling planes after just one day
Jul 15, 2026

JERUSALEM, July 15 (Xinhua) -- The Israeli Transport Ministry on Wednesday lifted a ban on U.S. military refueling planes landing at Ben Gurion International Airport, just a day after it was imposed, following a U.S. protest, Israel's state-owned Kan TV News reported.

The Israel Airports Authority (IAA), which operates under the ministry, had issued the ban on Tuesday citing capacity concerns during the peak summer travel season.

More:  https://english.news.cn/20260715/c750d22adf1d4c529ffb65e3eebe4df2/c.html

First NATO makes fools of us, now Israel.  9999hair out0000 

Come on, Mr. President, when you reach the point where Israel denies us landing rights as we defend them, it's time to smile and wave as we leave the theater.  Israel concerned about easy vacation travel doesn't sound like they're under an existential threat.  Netanyahu can fix this ---- AND give his people a fun summer.   

Come home, sir, and lead the fight, unencumbered, to save our nation ----

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Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
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Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

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Mark Twain


“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
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Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #396 on: Today at 07:50 am »
First NATO makes fools of us, now Israel.  9999hair out0000 

Come on, Mr. President, when you reach the point where Israel denies us landing rights as we defend them, it's time to smile and wave as we leave the theater.  Israel concerned about easy vacation travel doesn't sound like they're under an existential threat.  Netanyahu can fix this ---- AND give his people a fun summer.   

Come home, sir, and lead the fight, unencumbered, to save our nation ----

Those darn Jooooos!
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I will NOT comply.
 
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #397 on: Today at 08:26 am »
Iran Insists Military and Civilian Government ‘Fully Coordinated During Wartime’

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi insisted on Tuesday that Iran’s military and civilian government are acting in “full coordination during wartime,” despite earlier reports that the terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) acted on its own initiative to scuttle the ceasefire with the United States by attacking civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

more
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2026/07/15/iran-insists-military-and-civilian-government-fully-coordinated-during-wartime/
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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #398 on: Today at 08:35 am »
Iran Insists Military and Civilian Government ‘Fully Coordinated During Wartime’

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi insisted on Tuesday that Iran’s military and civilian government are acting in “full coordination during wartime,” despite earlier reports that the terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) acted on its own initiative to scuttle the ceasefire with the United States by attacking civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.


Oh, so now they're admitting that they were lying to Trump and Vance all along.  Good to know.   *****rollingeyes*****
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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #399 on: Today at 08:54 am »
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience"
Mark Twain


“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
-Matthew 6:34


Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election