Author Topic: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6  (Read 10864 times)

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Online rustynail

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #350 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 04:44 pm »
:bingo:  The less they know the better.

They are the best at knowing less.

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #351 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 05:52 pm »
Ah yes. You have solved geopolitics. Why did anyone waste centuries studying diplomacy, deterrence, intelligence, economics, and human behavior when the answer was apparently sitting here all along?

Option one: invade a country of nearly 90 million people, cross mountains and deserts, occupy territory the size of a continent, absorb casualties, trigger regional war, and resurrect the draft.

Option two: use nuclear weapons and hope the radioactive crater inspires a more cooperative attitude.

Brilliant. Truly the elegant simplicity that only comes from reducing a civilization-scale problem to a two-button control panel labeled “Armageddon” and “Armageddon With Paperwork.”

But I will surrender. You win. Let us accept your premise completely.

Iran cannot be deterred. Iran cannot be negotiated with. Iran cannot be pressured. Iran cannot be contained. Because they are “Twelvers,” their religious beliefs supposedly make them uniquely incapable of rational calculation.

Fine.

If that is true, then your solution does not actually solve the problem.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is indeed deeply rooted in Iran’s Twelver Shia revolutionary ideology. It was created to protect the Islamic Republic and operates as a military, political, and intelligence force loyal to that system. But even the IRGC is not simply a theological organization floating above reality. It is an institution with leaders, interests, resources, and a desire to preserve power.

That distinction matters.

History is full of ideological enemies who were still capable of calculating costs and consequences.

The Soviet Union was a nuclear-armed communist empire that openly sought the defeat of the United States. We did not invade Moscow. We did not erase it with nuclear weapons. We used deterrence, pressure, alliances, intelligence, and patience.

China under Mao was revolutionary, hostile, and deeply ideological. Yet strategic competition eventually involved something more complicated than “destroy them or surrender.”

Governments, even hostile governments, generally want to survive.

Now let us examine the two magical options presented.

A D-Day style invasion of Iran?

Iran is not Normandy. It is a mountainous nation of nearly 90 million people with cities, a large military, asymmetric capabilities, and regional allies. A military operation might destroy targets. Occupying and transforming the country would be an entirely different matter.

And the nuclear option?

A nuclear weapon does not destroy knowledge. It does not erase scientists. It does not remove ideology. It does not guarantee that the survivors will not rebuild with greater determination.

So the two choices offered are not really solutions.

They are catastrophes with different timelines.

One creates a potentially endless war.

The other creates a historic act of destruction that may only postpone the original problem.

The absurdity is not recognizing that Iran is dangerous. It is pretending that the only alternatives are surrender or apocalypse.

Real strategy exists in the uncomfortable space between those extremes.

Deterrence.

Containment.

Economic pressure.

Intelligence operations.

Diplomatic pressure backed by force.

The willingness to act when necessary without pretending there is a magic button labeled “Make Iran Disappear.”

The world is not divided between total victory and total defeat.

That is the fantasy version of war.

Reality is far messier.

And history has repeatedly shown that the hardest battles are often won not by the person willing to destroy everything, but by the person who understands exactly how much destruction is actually necessary.

This is an exceptional essay --- and hopefully will be a stand alone column at The Last Wire @Luis Gonzalez

Thank you for posting.

Offline Hoodat

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #352 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 06:02 pm »
Still waiting.
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Offline Hoodat

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #354 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 08:04 pm »
Speaking of 'FAKE NEWS':

We got involved in this expanded war based on the lies told by Netanyahu and Mossad on Feb 11 when they presented their "evidence" that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could quickly dismantle the Iranian government.


Still waiting.
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #355 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 08:20 pm »
@Right_in_Virginia

That’s an interesting point, and I’d honestly like to learn more about it.

I’ve seen reporting about the February 11 briefing and the claim that Israeli officials presented a very optimistic assessment of what could happen in Iran. What I haven’t seen is evidence that Netanyahu or Mossad knowingly provided false intelligence to the United States.

Also, hindsight by itself doesn’t prove intent. An intelligence assessment can turn out to be wrong without it having been a deliberate deception. The key question is whether there was evidence at the time that the information was knowingly false.

If you have a source, documents, testimony, or reporting that shows intentional deception, I’d genuinely appreciate you sharing it. I’d like to understand the basis for that conclusion.
“Perhaps we’ll have some answers, at least, before the end. I always dreamed of dying well-informed.” ― Joe Abercrombie, The First Law Trilogy

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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #356 on: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 10:22 pm »
@Right_in_Virginia

I’ve seen reporting about the February 11 briefing and the claim that Israeli officials presented a very optimistic assessment of what could happen in Iran. What I haven’t seen is evidence that Netanyahu or Mossad knowingly provided false intelligence to the United States.

Remember, in June 2025, the US and Israel were arm and arm and shoulder to shoulder:  destroy Iran's nuclear capacity.  In Feb 2026, Netanyahu now wanted regime change in Iran and the US to make it happen.  During the briefing on Feb 11, Netanyahu (personally) and Mossad representatives (electronically) gave three guarantees that had no basis in credible intelligence but formed Israel's basis for toppling the Iranian regime now:
1.  Iran was sufficiently weakened militarily and politically and would be unable to influence operations in the Strait of Hormuz
2.  The Iranian population would rise again in opposition to the Mullahs and the Kurds would join the fight with the Iranian people
3.  This overthrow would take --- at most --- a week or two and presented a slide show of potential Iranian leaders already vetted by Mossad

None of it was true --- which is why Netanyahu would quickly go on to announce plans to bomb Iran to begin this war for regime change.  He forced the US to engage militarily on February 28 to protect US military personnel from Iran retaliation ( Rubio let this cat out of this bag).  It didn't matter to our great ally that in the Trump administration there was still an internal debate underway.

Quote
Also, hindsight by itself doesn’t prove intent. An intelligence assessment can turn out to be wrong without it having been a deliberate deception. The key question is whether there was evidence at the time that the information was knowingly false.

Actually, the key question is what evidence did Netanyahu/Mossad base their guarantees on.   Our intelligence sources and agencies assessed the Israeli presentation to be "farcical" and by one well-known as "bullshit".   To counter this, Netanyahu simply loaded up his bombers and put them on the runway. Then he called Trump.

Quote
If you have a source, documents, testimony, or reporting that shows intentional deception, I’d genuinely appreciate you sharing it. I’d like to understand the basis for that conclusion.

The basis for the conclusion is not rocket science:  For thirty years Netanyahu has grounded his entire political life in the destruction of Iran ---- every UN speech, US speech, interview and breath he's taken had "Iran" in it.  He finally found a US president willing to listen to him about regime change. 

Netanyahu took his best shot ---- and an especially smart move in an election year (Oct 27) when his "Mr, Security" badge is splattered with Israeli blood.

Last, but not least, beyond what's already been published, additional documents, souces or testimony are not available.  A wall has dropped around this topic and leakers have taken to using locked keyboards for their books rather than phone interviews.  Actually, this wall of silence is pretty impressive.  But, smart money's on this silence not lasting beyond the midterms.

In the meantime, just pay attention to the ongoing Trump/Netanyahu interactions and take occasional peeks at the international presses, especially India and Israel .... they seem able to slip in new reporting.

I can send other links, if interested, but none contain the signed confession you seem to be looking for (yet).  happy77




« Last Edit: Monday, Jul 13, 2026 10:24 pm by Right_in_Virginia »

Offline Hoodat

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #357 on: Today at 03:05 am »
Actually, the key question is what evidence did Netanyahu/Mossad base their guarantees on.   Our intelligence sources and agencies assessed the Israeli presentation to be "farcical" and by one well-known as "bullshit".

This contradicts your bogus claim that "we got involved in this expanded war based on the lies told by Netanyahu and Mossad on Feb 11".  I.e. if the US rejected two of the assessments, then they didn't get involved based upon them.  Nor can you assess them as 'lies' since they were never followed through.  But hey, at least you finally read the NY Times article.  And now you look like a fool for citing  something that actually disproves your claim.
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

Jim Jones was a socialist Democrat.

Offline verga

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #358 on: Today at 03:31 am »
Ah yes. You have solved geopolitics. Why did anyone waste centuries studying diplomacy, deterrence, intelligence, economics, and human behavior when the answer was apparently sitting here all along?
Option one: invade a country of nearly 90 million people, cross mountains and deserts, occupy territory the size of a continent, absorb casualties, trigger regional war, and resurrect the draft.
Option two: use nuclear weapons and hope the radioactive crater inspires a more cooperative attitude.
Brilliant. Truly the elegant simplicity that only comes from reducing a civilization-scale problem to a two-button control panel labeled “Armageddon” and “Armageddon With Paperwork.”
Real strategy exists in the uncomfortable space between those extremes.
Deterrence.
Containment.
Economic pressure.
Intelligence operations.
Diplomatic pressure backed by force.
The willingness to act when necessary without pretending there is a magic button labeled “Make Iran Disappear.”
The world is not divided between total victory and total defeat.
That is the fantasy version of war.
Reality is far messier.
And history has repeatedly shown that the hardest battles are often won not by the person willing to destroy everything, but by the person who understands exactly how much destruction is actually necessary.
@Luis Gonzalez Your assessment is spot on, but you are missing a part. China and Russia are for the most part atheistic. Yes they wanted world Domination, but were not zealots. Islam is by its's very nature zealous fanaticism. Not only are they willing to kill for the cause, they are willing to die in the most spectacular possible. They want to be martyrs for the cause. The more infields they take with them, the greater their reward. This is Japanese Kamikaze pilots on steroids. They have no concept of peaceful coexistence. For them it is islam or death.
That being said I do not have a alternative or plan. But I do know i would rather fight them over there, rather than here.
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
�More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.�-Woody Allen
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #359 on: Today at 04:04 am »
Scoop: Trump gave Saudi crown prince his backing for risky strikes on Houthis

Barak Ravid  |  Updated 41 mins ago


President Trump gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) his support for a highly unusual military action against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, according to two U.S. officials.

Why it matters: The Saudi strike on the Sanaa airport Monday and Houthi retaliatory missile attacks that followed were the most serious cross-border escalation since 2022. They could signal the collapse of a four-year, unofficial truce between the parties.

- A renewed military conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could exacerbate regional tensions and broaden the war between the U.S. and Iran.

- The fact that MBS notified Trump in advance and asked for his backing signals that the Saudis are concerned about a larger conflict with the Houthis that will require military and diplomatic support from the U.S.

Behind the scenes: Last week Saudi Arabia told the U.S. it was concerned about the situation and asked for support for possible strikes against the Houthis.

- On Thursday, the Saudi ambassador to Washington met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A day later Rubio spoke to Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.

- Shortly after on Friday, President Trump spoke by phone with the Saudi crown prince, per a U.S. official ...

https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/trump-bin-salman-houthis-yemen

According to reports at the time, the Hooties handed the Saudis their private parts while the Saudis were spending most of the time in sex forts. And so the Saudis lost.
« Last Edit: Today at 04:08 am by BobfromWB »
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #360 on: Today at 04:14 am »
Trump: Iranian People Can’t Return to Streets, They’re Unarmed

Ian Hanchett 13 Jul 2026

On Monday’s “Hugh Hewitt Show,” President Donald Trump said that the Iranian people can’t go back into the streets “because they don’t have guns, and the other side has guns.”

Host Hugh Hewitt asked, “So let me ask you about the Iranian people. You said help was on the way, and you sent it. 40,000 of them got massacred before your help could get there. Is it time for them to go back into the streets?”

Trump answered, “Well, you can’t do that, because they don’t have guns, and the other side has guns. And the number is 52,000 people killed so far. And these are thugs. It’s very hard for people to go back. They can have great bravado. They can hate the regime. They can do everything. But when you start seeing people dropping a little bit left and right, you know they have snipers, and the snipers are up in buildings, four or five of them. And let’s say they form 100-200,000 people and they see one go down with a bullet between the eyes and then they see another one go down with a bullet between the eyes and then they see a third, like, with the women, they had 300,000 women, all of a sudden, one goes down, two goes down, three, four, five, and you know what happens, Hugh? They say let’s get the hell out of here.”

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2026/07/13/trump-iranian-people-cant-return-to-streets-theyre-unarmed/
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #361 on: Today at 04:58 am »
This contradicts your bogus claim that "we got involved in this expanded war based on the lies told by Netanyahu and Mossad on Feb 11".  I.e. if the US rejected two of the assessments, then they didn't get involved based upon them.  Nor can you assess them as 'lies' since they were never followed through.  But hey, at least you finally read the NY Times article.  And now you look like a fool for citing  something that actually disproves your claim.

*What*, exactly, contradicts the opinion that the expanded war beginning in Feb 2026 was based on false Israeli intelligence? 

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #362 on: Today at 05:04 am »
Trump: Iranian People Can’t Return to Streets, They’re Unarmed

Ian Hanchett 13 Jul 2026

Trump answered, “Well, you can’t do that, because they don’t have guns, and the other side has guns. And the number is 52,000 people killed so far.

Now it's 52,000 dead? Have I missed a photo of the funerals and graves? 



« Last Edit: Today at 05:07 am by Right_in_Virginia »

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #364 on: Today at 06:43 am »
mystery-ak et al

We must have an account to watch videos on X.com now
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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
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Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
-Matthew 6:34


Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #367 on: Today at 08:47 am »
Quote
US opts to keep refuelers at Ben-Gurion Airport, putting 50,000 flight tickets at risk
Jerusalem Post, Jul 14, 2026



Up to 50,000 flight tickets may be canceled during July following an American decision to freeze the evacuation of its refuelers stationed at Ben-Gurion Airport, the Israel Airports Authority (IAA) warned on Thursday.

IAA director-general Sharon Kedmi released a letter expressing concern over the decision. "This delay has immediate and serious operational consequences," he stated.

Transportation Ministry Director-General Moshe Ben Zaken also said additional US refueling aircraft would not be permitted to land at the airport. Israeli air traffic control had reportedly been instructed not to approve any further US refuelers for landing in Israel.

Citizens cannot be harmed; the Defense Ministry must find solutions," Ben Zaken said.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed to The Jerusalem Post that despite concerns, the freeze is in place.

In addition to the freeze, four additional US refuelers landed at Ben-Gurion Airport recently, N12 reported, adding that the planes came from Gulf countries which have recently come under Iranian attack.



https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-902450

Maybe we should cancel all military action and come home.  We wouldn't want to "harm citizens" during peak vacation season.

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #368 on: Today at 09:06 am »
So the Minister of Transportation thinks he can slam the brakes on the war to save his country?  I guess Israel has its share of stupid idiots....
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Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience"
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“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
-Matthew 6:34


Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #371 on: Today at 11:22 am »
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Iran has been "very much destabilized" after being a "big burden on Iraq," and that U.S. oil companies are now entering Iraq at “levels that have never been seen before.”

The president, speaking alongside Iraq’s new prime minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, said “Iran was a big burden on Iraq because they were the bully of the Middle East.” 

“But they're not going to have that problem anymore, because Iran has been very much destabilized. And really, their military power is just a tiny fraction of what it was just four months ago,” Trump added.

"So they're not going to have that problem. I think it's really, in a sense that's given them freedom to do what they have to do. And I think that's one of the reasons that our oil companies are going in there at levels that have never been seen before,” Trump also said.
Posted by Greg Norman-Diamond
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

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-Matthew 6:34


Smokin Joe: Stupid people vote. If you have enough of them, you don’t need to steal an election

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #373 on: Today at 12:20 pm »
mystery-ak et al

We must have an account to watch videos on X.com now

That's easy enough to deal with...just set up a throw-away email address using Yahoo or Gmail or some other platform, and set-up the account.  That's what I did.  Easy peasy.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #374 on: Today at 12:22 pm »

https://twitter.com/LauraLoomer/status/2077073868322152695

I can't imagine anything that would piss Trump off more than mortally threatening his family.
aka "nasty degenerate SOB," "worst of the worst at Free Republic," "Garbage Troll," "Neocon Warmonger," "Filthy Piece of Trash," "damn $#%$#@!," "Silly f'er," "POS," "war pig," "neocon scumbag," "insignificant little ankle nipper," "@ss-clown," "neocuck," "termite," "Uniparty Deep stater," "Never Trump sack of dog feces," "avid Bidenista," "filthy Ukrainian," "war whore," "fricking chump," "psychopathic POS," "depraved SOB," "Never Trump Moron," "Lazarus," "sock puppet," and "Timber Bunny."

"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act."  ---George Orwell

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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #375 on: Today at 12:55 pm »
That's easy enough to deal with...just set up a throw-away email address using Yahoo or Gmail or some other platform, and set-up the account.  That's what I did.  Easy peasy.

Nope I do not chose to do so. Going X-less.
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Re: Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #6
« Reply #376 on: Today at 01:02 pm »
Nope I do not chose to do so. Going X-less.

That's fair.  Don't need X-bots tracking you....
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