New data reveals 100% chance of strong ‘Super’ El Nino forming this year The latest long-range European forecast shows there's a 100% chance of a super El Niño, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range forecast model, which ups the chances of the strongest El Niño ever hitting by November.
Back in March, data only reached through September, when there was only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold.
The FOX Forecast Center said an El Niño of this caliber being predicted so early means it could be an event to look back on for years to come.
Typically, a strong El Niño like this one would mean suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific.
However, the ECMWF isn't yet showing a strong decrease in hurricane forecast numbers for the season, making it possible that the strongest El Niño effects may not be felt until later into the season.
The latest forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The average in a season is 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center..........
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-super-el-nino-strongest-ever-ocean-pacific-atlantic-hurricane-season
