New data reveals 100% chance of strong ‘Super’ El Nino forming this year

[libertybele]

New data reveals 100% chance of strong ‘Super’ El Nino forming this year

The latest long-range European forecast shows there's a 100% chance of a super El Niño, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range forecast model, which ups the chances of the strongest El Niño ever hitting by November.

Back in March, data only reached through September, when there was only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold.

The FOX Forecast Center said an El Niño of this caliber being predicted so early means it could be an event to look back on for years to come.

Typically, a strong El Niño like this one would mean suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific.

However, the ECMWF isn't yet showing a strong decrease in hurricane forecast numbers for the season, making it possible that the strongest El Niño effects may not be felt until later into the season.

The latest forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The average in a season is 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center..........

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-super-el-nino-strongest-ever-ocean-pacific-atlantic-hurricane-season

[Wingnut]

Just remember girl, the last big ass El Nino was in 2018.  A predicted low cane activity season back then. You remember what happened on October 10? 

[libertybele]

Just remember girl, the last big ass El Nino was in 2018.  A predicted low cane activity season back then. You remember what happened on October 10?

I'm not letting my guard down.  Yeppers -- Hurricane Michael.  Brutal, Cat. 5 cane.

[jmyrlefuller]

Now watch as it doesn't actually happen.

[libertybele]

Now watch as it doesn't actually happen.

We'll see.

They fired our local weatherman -- he started his own business on the side (Facebook).  People loved him and he was pretty darn accurate  for the most part -- he got us through Ian. He went through court as they sued him and now that the dust has settled he gives independent weather updates  on his social media platform. (I don't do social media).  His replacement at the station?  Someone who filled in for him on rare occasions and was new to the station last year. Their other meteorologist quit, so I think it's going to be a shick show this season. I'm hoping for a quiet season.