Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in Texas Senate race, new poll shows

[mystery-ak]

 Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in Texas Senate race, new poll shows
by Sarah Fortinsky - 04/28/26 11:22 AM ET

James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, is leading both of his potential Republican opponents in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups ahead of the general election, according to a new poll.

In the Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted in mid-April, likely general election voters in the Lone Star State say they would back Talarico over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R), 44 percent to 41 percent — just outside the poll’s margin of error. Another 11 percent of respondents say they’re undecided.

In a hypothetical match-up against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), the Democratic candidate’s advantage widens to 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with just 9 percent of respondents undecided.

None of the Republican candidates for the Senate secured a majority of votes during the primary election, sending Cornyn and Paxton to a runoff on May 26. The winner will face Talarico in November.

In both hypothetical match-ups, Talarico leads among independent voters by more than 20 percentage points. Against Cornyn, Talarico leads 51 percent to 29 percent, and against Paxton, his advantage widens to 53 percent to 28 percent.

Similar trends are seen among moderate voters, who back Talarico by more than 40 percentage points in both hypothetical races: Talarico leads Cornyn 62 percent to 19 percent, while he leads Paxton 65 percent to 16 percent.

Talarico appears to have far outraised both potential Republican candidates since the primary last month, according to a New York Times analysis, but Cornyn holds a significant advantage over his GOP opponent.

Since the primary, Cornyn has brought in more than $6.5 million across his campaign’s funds and an independent political action committee backing him. Paxton’s campaign and independent PAC, meanwhile, raised more than $1.9 million, the Times reported.

The survey, conducted April 17-20, included 1,865 likely general election voters. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5852845-texas-poll-talarico-advantage/

[Wingnut]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

The Hill

[Idiot]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

I don't think the electorate are educated yet on who this guy is.

[cato potatoe]

This will be the most expensive senate race, by a wide margin.  North Carolina will be second, but the Republicans should probably focus on Ohio instead.

[catfish1957]

I don't think the electorate are educated yet on who this guy is.

I've at least tried to do my part.....

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php?topic=578652.0

[catfish1957]

I guessimate that we've gained about a half million CA and other blue state pukes to the Austin / I-35 Corridor alone.   (Past 5 years).

And...they borught their politics with them.

Republican turnout for this race has never been more critical.

[Free Vulcan]

This is one of The Shill's ham sandwich with special sauce polls.

[Cyber Liberty]

I guessimate that we've gained about a half million CA and other blue state pukes to the Austin / I-35 Corridor alone.   (Past 5 years).

And...they borught their politics with them.

Republican turnout for this race has never been more critical.

I'd like to think Paxton will do a better job turning out voters than Cornyn.

[cato potatoe]

The UT poll has Talarico leading by 7 or 8.

Reconsolidation is to be expected after the primary, but this one is problematic.  The 2024 coalition has vanished.

[catfish1957]

The UT poll has Talarico leading by 7 or 8.

Reconsolidation is to be expected after the primary, but this one is problematic.  The 2024 coalition has vanished.

UT dim push poll they are famous for.  You may be shocked but some of the most whacko liberal POS' in the country live in Texas (Austin)

I am watching this one closely, and it is pretty even, as this POS faux preacher (groomer?) has duped many here.    All will depend on how much we can get the GOP base out this November.  And the fighting between Cornyn and Paxton isn't helping.

[Idiot]

I'd like to think Paxton will do a better job turning out voters than Cornyn.

I've heard different opinions on Paxton and Cornyn.  You either love or hate each one of them.  I know my brother worked with Paxton and absolutely hates him... and Cornyn...his voting record is just awful.  I suppose I prefer Paxton, I just hope the people that can't stand him hold their noses and vote for him in the general election (if he wins the runoff).

[Bigun]

I've heard different opinions on Paxton and Cornyn.  You either love or hate each one of them.  I know my brother worked with Paxton and absolutely hates him... and Cornyn...his voting record is just awful.  I suppose I prefer Paxton, I just hope the people that can't stand him hold their noses and vote for him in the general election (if he wins the runoff).

I've known Ken Paxton for more than twenty years and will happily vote for him in the runoff and the general.

[Ghost Bear]

Every frickin' election cycle, the same ol' "Texas is turning blue!!!!!" BS.   

[catfish1957]

Every frickin' election cycle, the same ol' "Texas is turning blue!!!!!" BS.   

You do realize that Cruz only won by 2% over Alred in '24?  This statement is the type of complacency that is going to kill us.

[Wingnut]

Every frickin' election cycle, the same ol' "Texas is turning blue!!!!!" BS.   

Yeah we got that here in FL from 2010 till 2016/17.  Then something funny happened.  Millions of new voters registered as Republicans.  Voted for Republicans because of the shit Dems like Charlie Crist and his feckless rats were pulling.  The asshat couldn't decided if he was a republican, so he switched to the Rat Party. Then when that didn't fit his style he ran as an independent.   Now the poor bastards that live in St Pete might elect him as Mayor. 

We are pretty solid red.  In Fact now that Covidbaggers from the blue NE found out they don't like the FL heat and are moving back...we are getting redder. redneckier anyway.

[catfish1957]

Yeah we got that here in FL from 2010 till 2016/17.  Then something funny happened.  Millions of new voters registered as Republicans.  Voted for Republicans because of the shit Dems like Charlie Crist and his feckless rats were pulling.  The asshat couldn't decided if he was a republican, so he switched to the Rat Party. Then when that didn't fit his style he ran as an independent.   Now the poor bastards that live in St Pete might elect him as Mayor. 

We are pretty solid red.  In Fact now that Covidbaggers from the blue NE found out they don't like the FL heat and are moving back...we are getting redder. redneckier anyway.

I still really think that we have way too many carpet baggers occupying the I-35 corridor, that is over netting what seems to be a rightward shift.,  And don't forget...  We do still have a Bush stench that is the core vote of Cornyn.  If either of these stay home, this might not end well.

[Ghost Bear]

You do realize that Cruz only won by 2% over Alred in '24?  This statement is the type of complacency that is going to kill us.

BS, Cruz only won by 2% because Trump supporters still hate him. The same won't be true for Paxton. I'm not sure how the base feels about Cornyn though, I know that I wouldn't be happy about voting for him. And acknowledging the same scare-mongering happening every election cycle isn't "complacency".

Talarico is this season's Beto. He will lose by just as much.

[libertybele]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

Polls are polls.  Most are always skewed to get the results they want and then try to publish them as accurate.

However, a lot of liberals are also incredibly stupid. 

[catfish1957]

BS, Cruz only won by 2% because Trump supporters still hate him. The same won't be true for Paxton. I'm not sure how the base feels about Cornyn though, I know that I wouldn't be happy about voting for him. And acknowledging the same scare-mongering happening every election cycle isn't "complacency".

Talarico is this season's Beto. He will lose by just as much.

/

BS... You don't think the Cornyn Bushites aren't going to stay home either if Paxton prevails. It is winnable, but I stand 100% that your initial comment is the damned complacency that might kill us.  I sure hope you aren't Texan

[Idiot]

BS, Cruz only won by 2% because Trump supporters still hate him. The same won't be true for Paxton. I'm not sure how the base feels about Cornyn though, I know that I wouldn't be happy about voting for him. And acknowledging the same scare-mongering happening every election cycle isn't "complacency".

Talarico is this season's Beto. He will lose by just as much.

The same may very well be true for either Cornyn or Paxton, whoever wins.  The haters will hate.

[Ghost Bear]

/

BS... You don't think the Cornyn Bushites aren't going to stay home either if Paxton prevails. It is winnable, but I stand 100% that your initial comment is the damned complacency that might kill us.  I sure hope you aren't Texan

Complacency would be staying home and not voting, because I think the Republican candidate is going to win. I assure you, I voted in the primary, I will vote in the May 26 runoff, and I will vote in the November election, even if Cornyn wins the runoff. In case you can't figure it out, yes I am a Texan.

The Bushites are numerous in the party elite, but I do not think they are that numerous among the actual voters. I stand by my statement that Paxton would win more votes in the general than Cornyn, should Paxton win in the runoff. Bushites hate Paxton, but I think ordinary voters are tired of Cornyn and want someone who will fight. Paxton has proved that he will fight.

Go back to the 2018 Senate campaign, you'll find all kinds of articles about how Texas might be turning blue, Beto has a real shot, etc. Then Cruz won by ~2% in the general. I submit this as evidence that Ted Cruz isn't very well liked by Texas Republican voters, not that Democrats have a chance in Hell of winning a Senate seat in Texas. For reference, Cornyn won by 10 points in 2020, showing that when you take Ted Cruz out of the equation the Republican still wins big in a statewide race, just like in races for Governor, Lt. Governor, AG, etc., etc.

Paxton or Cornyn, the Republican wins. I think Paxton will win bigger than Cornyn, but we have no real way of knowing.

[Bigun]

Complacency would be staying home and not voting, because I think the Republican candidate is going to win. I assure you, I voted in the primary, I will vote in the May 26 runoff, and I will vote in the November election, even if Cornyn wins the runoff. In case you can't figure it out, yes I am a Texan.

The Bushites are numerous in the party elite, but I do not think they are that numerous among the actual voters. I stand by my statement that Paxton would win more votes in the general than Cornyn, should Paxton win in the runoff. Bushites hate Paxton, but I think ordinary voters are tired of Cornyn and want someone who will fight. Paxton has proved that he will fight.

Go back to the 2018 Senate campaign, you'll find all kinds of articles about how Texas might be turning blue, Beto has a real shot, etc. Then Cruz won by ~2% in the general. I submit this as evidence that Ted Cruz isn't very well liked by Texas Republican voters, not that Democrats have a chance in Hell of winning a Senate seat in Texas. For reference, Cornyn won by 10 points in 2020, showing that when you take Ted Cruz out of the equation the Republican still wins big in a statewide race, just like in races for Governor, Lt. Governor, AG, etc., etc.

Paxton or Cornyn, the Republican wins. I think Paxton will win bigger than Cornyn, but we have no real way of knowing.

FWIW I agree with you @Ghost Bear

[catfish1957]

FWIW I agree with you @Ghost Bear

I want to agree with y'all, but have you seen the level of mud slinging between Paxton and Cornyn.  No way sour grapes among the camps subsides by November. Many will stay home.   And (as I stated above), prob., 500K left leaning carpetbaggers along the I-35 corridor have been added in the past 5 years or so.

Then add "preacher"..... no matter how sleazy and faggy he is?  Not everyone follows these things like us...   And I can see many middle leaning Karens, just thinking how cute and adorable he is? 

Sorry, I was the 3rd Republican in the history of my county in '75, and after watching the progression of GOP political landscape?  Let's just say, I don't have the same level of confidence that this seat safe.

[Bigun]

I want to agree with y'all, but have you seen the level of mud slinging between Paxton and Cornyn.  No way sour grapes among the camps subsides by November. Many will stay home.   And (as I stated above), prob., 500K left leaning carpetbaggers along the I-35 corridor have been added in the past 5 years or so.

Then add "preacher"..... no matter how sleazy and faggy he is?  Not everyone follows these things like us...   And I can see many middle leaning Karens, just thinking how cute and adorable he is? 

Sorry, I was the 3rd Republican in the history of my county in '75, and after watching the progression of GOP political landscape?  Let's just say, I don't have the same level of confidence that this seat safe.

Yes. I have seen the mudslinging coming from the Cornyn camp and note that the more of it they do the higher Paxton's numbers go.

[Idiot]

Let's be honest...Paxton is a very flawed candidate.  I know that no one is perfect for sure....

Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General, has been accused of an extramarital affair with Laura Olson, which contributed to his divorce from Angela Paxton and political controversies.
Alleged Affair with Laura Olson
Ken Paxton’s alleged affair with Laura Olson reportedly began in 2018. Olson, a former aide to Texas State Senator Donna Campbell, was later employed by real estate developer Nate Paul, a political donor, which raised questions about potential misuse of office to benefit the affair. Paxton initially described Olson as his realtor but later admitted to the relationship. The affair became publicly known during Paxton’s 2023 impeachment trial, although Olson did not testify.
Men's Journal
+2
Divorce from Angela Paxton
Angela Paxton, Ken’s wife of nearly 38 years, filed for divorce in July 2025 citing “biblical grounds” and alleging adultery. Court records indicate the couple had been living apart since 2024, and Angela stated that reconciliation was no longer possible due to the breakdown of trust and marital discord. The divorce filing has drawn significant public and political attention, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee condemning Paxton’s conduct as “repulsive and disgusting”.
The Independent
+4
Political and Legal Implications
The affair and related allegations intersected with Paxton’s political career. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on multiple counts, including abuse of office and bribery, partly linked to the employment of Olson by Nate Paul. Paxton was acquitted by the Texas Senate. The scandal has complicated his 2026 campaign to challenge Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary, potentially affecting endorsements and voter support.
Men's Journal
+3

[Bigun]

Let's be honest...Paxton is a very flawed candidate.  I know that no one is perfect for sure....

I'm unaware of Paxton having ever claimed to be perfect but I do know that I have known him since his days in the Texas house and will happily vote for him again in the runoff and the general this fall.

If Ken Paxton had been elected Speaker of the House when he ran for the job the line of Joe Straus RINOs we have endured would have never happened and Texas would be FAR better off than it currently is.

[Wingnut]

Let's be honest...Paxton is a very flawed candidate.  I know that no one is perfect for sure....

He's no Ann Richards that's 4 sure.

[Idiot]

He's no Ann Richards that's 4 sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-tyKWNwtMU

[Wingnut]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-tyKWNwtMU

I forgot she originated the "Born with a silver foot in his mouth" line!!

[Fishrrman]

Wingnut tosses his wrench into the machine with:
"Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.
I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher."

Psssttt... Wingnut...
Got a name for you:
beto the dirt eater.
How close did he get to beating Ted Cruz last time?

Texas is changing.
Those who try to deny this refuse to see what's coming down the pike.
The BIGGEST change in Texas is going to be demographics.

Hmmm... lemmmmeee see here (going to a net search as I compose this):
White - 39.1%
Black - 11.9%
Asian - 5.5%
Hispanic - 39.7%
Source: https://www.censusdots.com/race/texas-demographics
Texas is now the third "minority white" state (after CA and NM).

Let's take a look at the future:
Percentage of births by race/ethnicity:
"Of all live births in Texas during 2022-2024 (average), 49.5% were Hispanic, 30.8% were White, 11.9% were Black, 0.2% were American Indian/Alaska Native and 5.8% were Asian/Pacific Islander."
Source: https://www.marchofdimes.org/peristats/data?reg=48&top=2&stop=10&lev=1&slev=4&obj=3&sreg=48


Demography is destiny.
And down Texas' way, the whites are losing. They're clearly in retreat, ESPECIALLY where births are concerned. These nonwhites will become the voters of the future. A new majority.

A Fishrrman "why does he bother doing this?™" prediction:
Doesn't matter if either Cornyn or Paxton runs, this is gonna be a squeaker.
You can hold me to it (I'm archiving this prediction post).

I don't need to hear a reply to wit, "hispanics in texas are different than those in new york".
Brings to mind the old Twilight Zone episode, "People Are Alike All Over".

Make no mistake:
I'll be happy to see Paxton win.
But I call 'em as I see 'em, and I see a tough road ahead for the white folks in Texas...

[ScottinVA]

You do realize that Cruz only won by 2% over Alred in '24?  This statement is the type of complacency that is going to kill us.

Cruz wiped the floor with Allred in 2024.

✓Ted Cruz          5,990,741      53.1%
Colin Allred    5,031,249   44.6%

[catfish1957]

Cruz wiped the floor with Allred in 2024.

✓Ted Cruz          5,990,741      53.1%
Colin Allred    5,031,249   44.6%

Oops and Thanks...was looking at wrong column.  Was citing then '18 race where Cruz barely beat Beto.