Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in Texas Senate race, new poll shows

[mystery-ak]

 Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in Texas Senate race, new poll shows
by Sarah Fortinsky - 04/28/26 11:22 AM ET

James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, is leading both of his potential Republican opponents in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups ahead of the general election, according to a new poll.

In the Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted in mid-April, likely general election voters in the Lone Star State say they would back Talarico over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R), 44 percent to 41 percent — just outside the poll’s margin of error. Another 11 percent of respondents say they’re undecided.

In a hypothetical match-up against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), the Democratic candidate’s advantage widens to 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with just 9 percent of respondents undecided.

None of the Republican candidates for the Senate secured a majority of votes during the primary election, sending Cornyn and Paxton to a runoff on May 26. The winner will face Talarico in November.

In both hypothetical match-ups, Talarico leads among independent voters by more than 20 percentage points. Against Cornyn, Talarico leads 51 percent to 29 percent, and against Paxton, his advantage widens to 53 percent to 28 percent.

Similar trends are seen among moderate voters, who back Talarico by more than 40 percentage points in both hypothetical races: Talarico leads Cornyn 62 percent to 19 percent, while he leads Paxton 65 percent to 16 percent.

Talarico appears to have far outraised both potential Republican candidates since the primary last month, according to a New York Times analysis, but Cornyn holds a significant advantage over his GOP opponent.

Since the primary, Cornyn has brought in more than $6.5 million across his campaign’s funds and an independent political action committee backing him. Paxton’s campaign and independent PAC, meanwhile, raised more than $1.9 million, the Times reported.

The survey, conducted April 17-20, included 1,865 likely general election voters. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5852845-texas-poll-talarico-advantage/

[Wingnut]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

The Hill

[Idiot]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

I don't think the electorate are educated yet on who this guy is.

[cato potatoe]

This will be the most expensive senate race, by a wide margin.  North Carolina will be second, but the Republicans should probably focus on Ohio instead.

[catfish1957]

I don't think the electorate are educated yet on who this guy is.

I've at least tried to do my part.....

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php?topic=578652.0

[catfish1957]

I guessimate that we've gained about a half million CA and other blue state pukes to the Austin / I-35 Corridor alone.   (Past 5 years).

And...they borught their politics with them.

Republican turnout for this race has never been more critical.

[Free Vulcan]

This is one of The Shill's ham sandwich with special sauce polls.

[Cyber Liberty]

I guessimate that we've gained about a half million CA and other blue state pukes to the Austin / I-35 Corridor alone.   (Past 5 years).

And...they borught their politics with them.

Republican turnout for this race has never been more critical.

I'd like to think Paxton will do a better job turning out voters than Cornyn.

[cato potatoe]

The UT poll has Talarico leading by 7 or 8.

Reconsolidation is to be expected after the primary, but this one is problematic.  The 2024 coalition has vanished.

[catfish1957]

The UT poll has Talarico leading by 7 or 8.

Reconsolidation is to be expected after the primary, but this one is problematic.  The 2024 coalition has vanished.

UT dim push poll they are famous for.  You may be shocked but some of the most whacko liberal POS' in the country live in Texas (Austin)

I am watching this one closely, and it is pretty even, as this POS faux preacher (groomer?) has duped many here.    All will depend on how much we can get the GOP base out this November.  And the fighting between Cornyn and Paxton isn't helping.

[Idiot]

I'd like to think Paxton will do a better job turning out voters than Cornyn.

I've heard different opinions on Paxton and Cornyn.  You either love or hate each one of them.  I know my brother worked with Paxton and absolutely hates him... and Cornyn...his voting record is just awful.  I suppose I prefer Paxton, I just hope the people that can't stand him hold their noses and vote for him in the general election (if he wins the runoff).

[Bigun]

I've heard different opinions on Paxton and Cornyn.  You either love or hate each one of them.  I know my brother worked with Paxton and absolutely hates him... and Cornyn...his voting record is just awful.  I suppose I prefer Paxton, I just hope the people that can't stand him hold their noses and vote for him in the general election (if he wins the runoff).

I've known Ken Paxton for more than twenty years and will happily vote for him in the runoff and the general.

[Ghost Bear]

Every frickin' election cycle, the same ol' "Texas is turning blue!!!!!" BS.   

[catfish1957]

Every frickin' election cycle, the same ol' "Texas is turning blue!!!!!" BS.   

You do realize that Cruz only won by 2% over Alred in '24?  This statement is the type of complacency that is going to kill us.

[Wingnut]

Every frickin' election cycle, the same ol' "Texas is turning blue!!!!!" BS.   

Yeah we got that here in FL from 2010 till 2016/17.  Then something funny happened.  Millions of new voters registered as Republicans.  Voted for Republicans because of the shit Dems like Charlie Crist and his feckless rats were pulling.  The asshat couldn't decided if he was a republican, so he switched to the Rat Party. Then when that didn't fit his style he ran as an independent.   Now the poor bastards that live in St Pete might elect him as Mayor. 

We are pretty solid red.  In Fact now that Covidbaggers from the blue NE found out they don't like the FL heat and are moving back...we are getting redder. redneckier anyway.

[catfish1957]

Yeah we got that here in FL from 2010 till 2016/17.  Then something funny happened.  Millions of new voters registered as Republicans.  Voted for Republicans because of the shit Dems like Charlie Crist and his feckless rats were pulling.  The asshat couldn't decided if he was a republican, so he switched to the Rat Party. Then when that didn't fit his style he ran as an independent.   Now the poor bastards that live in St Pete might elect him as Mayor. 

We are pretty solid red.  In Fact now that Covidbaggers from the blue NE found out they don't like the FL heat and are moving back...we are getting redder. redneckier anyway.

I still really think that we have way too many carpet baggers occupying the I-35 corridor, that is over netting what seems to be a rightward shift.,  And don't forget...  We do still have a Bush stench that is the core vote of Cornyn.  If either of these stay home, this might not end well.

[Ghost Bear]

You do realize that Cruz only won by 2% over Alred in '24?  This statement is the type of complacency that is going to kill us.

BS, Cruz only won by 2% because Trump supporters still hate him. The same won't be true for Paxton. I'm not sure how the base feels about Cornyn though, I know that I wouldn't be happy about voting for him. And acknowledging the same scare-mongering happening every election cycle isn't "complacency".

Talarico is this season's Beto. He will lose by just as much.

[libertybele]

Either the people polled are incredibly stupid or the poll is flat out wrong.

I can't see this scum sucker winning an election as a dog catcher.

Polls are polls.  Most are always skewed to get the results they want and then try to publish them as accurate.

However, a lot of liberals are also incredibly stupid. 

[catfish1957]

BS, Cruz only won by 2% because Trump supporters still hate him. The same won't be true for Paxton. I'm not sure how the base feels about Cornyn though, I know that I wouldn't be happy about voting for him. And acknowledging the same scare-mongering happening every election cycle isn't "complacency".

Talarico is this season's Beto. He will lose by just as much.

/

BS... You don't think the Cornyn Bushites aren't going to stay home either if Paxton prevails. It is winnable, but I stand 100% that your initial comment is the damned complacency that might kill us.  I sure hope you aren't Texan

[Idiot]

BS, Cruz only won by 2% because Trump supporters still hate him. The same won't be true for Paxton. I'm not sure how the base feels about Cornyn though, I know that I wouldn't be happy about voting for him. And acknowledging the same scare-mongering happening every election cycle isn't "complacency".

Talarico is this season's Beto. He will lose by just as much.

The same may very well be true for either Cornyn or Paxton, whoever wins.  The haters will hate.

[Ghost Bear]

/

BS... You don't think the Cornyn Bushites aren't going to stay home either if Paxton prevails. It is winnable, but I stand 100% that your initial comment is the damned complacency that might kill us.  I sure hope you aren't Texan

Complacency would be staying home and not voting, because I think the Republican candidate is going to win. I assure you, I voted in the primary, I will vote in the May 26 runoff, and I will vote in the November election, even if Cornyn wins the runoff. In case you can't figure it out, yes I am a Texan.

The Bushites are numerous in the party elite, but I do not think they are that numerous among the actual voters. I stand by my statement that Paxton would win more votes in the general than Cornyn, should Paxton win in the runoff. Bushites hate Paxton, but I think ordinary voters are tired of Cornyn and want someone who will fight. Paxton has proved that he will fight.

Go back to the 2018 Senate campaign, you'll find all kinds of articles about how Texas might be turning blue, Beto has a real shot, etc. Then Cruz won by ~2% in the general. I submit this as evidence that Ted Cruz isn't very well liked by Texas Republican voters, not that Democrats have a chance in Hell of winning a Senate seat in Texas. For reference, Cornyn won by 10 points in 2020, showing that when you take Ted Cruz out of the equation the Republican still wins big in a statewide race, just like in races for Governor, Lt. Governor, AG, etc., etc.

Paxton or Cornyn, the Republican wins. I think Paxton will win bigger than Cornyn, but we have no real way of knowing.

[Bigun]

Complacency would be staying home and not voting, because I think the Republican candidate is going to win. I assure you, I voted in the primary, I will vote in the May 26 runoff, and I will vote in the November election, even if Cornyn wins the runoff. In case you can't figure it out, yes I am a Texan.

The Bushites are numerous in the party elite, but I do not think they are that numerous among the actual voters. I stand by my statement that Paxton would win more votes in the general than Cornyn, should Paxton win in the runoff. Bushites hate Paxton, but I think ordinary voters are tired of Cornyn and want someone who will fight. Paxton has proved that he will fight.

Go back to the 2018 Senate campaign, you'll find all kinds of articles about how Texas might be turning blue, Beto has a real shot, etc. Then Cruz won by ~2% in the general. I submit this as evidence that Ted Cruz isn't very well liked by Texas Republican voters, not that Democrats have a chance in Hell of winning a Senate seat in Texas. For reference, Cornyn won by 10 points in 2020, showing that when you take Ted Cruz out of the equation the Republican still wins big in a statewide race, just like in races for Governor, Lt. Governor, AG, etc., etc.

Paxton or Cornyn, the Republican wins. I think Paxton will win bigger than Cornyn, but we have no real way of knowing.

FWIW I agree with you @Ghost Bear

[catfish1957]

FWIW I agree with you @Ghost Bear

I want to agree with y'all, but have you seen the level of mud slinging between Paxton and Cornyn.  No way sour grapes among the camps subsides by November. Many will stay home.   And (as I stated above), prob., 500K left leaning carpetbaggers along the I-35 corridor have been added in the past 5 years or so.

Then add "preacher"..... no matter how sleazy and faggy he is?  Not everyone follows these things like us...   And I can see many middle leaning Karens, just thinking how cute and adorable he is? 

Sorry, I was the 3rd Republican in the history of my county in '75, and after watching the progression of GOP political landscape?  Let's just say, I don't have the same level of confidence that this seat safe.