Why Grocery Prices Rose — And Why They Didn’t Come Back Down

[Atruepatriot]

Been there myself, many times. It sucks, being the mean, evil businessman, when you know damn well that you took food off your own table to make sure your employees were fed.

That's right. 

That's a fun game - the doing of it, I mean. I have been around bone yards all my life, and know my way around a wrecker. Never had the stones for picking up the pieces (and you know what I mean), but the technical aspect of a tough pull has always been a kick for me.

Always wanted in on diesel recovery. Must have watched a thousand of em on youtube. Just never had the fun tickets to get started. I have owned a wrecker or two, but never went that way. I could get inside the closed loop business-wise (as a jobber). I looked at it... HARD... auto repo/recovery... but the money is pretty tight on auto recovery.

Not worth the squeeze for me. But I have a love for them big wreckers, I do. Good on ya. And good post. 

And you know what else? It is extremely physical as you probably know. Every 20 ft of cable weighs as much as you do. So every time you drag out 300 ft of cable and get a snatch block hooked ready to pull it it feels like a huge once in a lifetime achievement. And then as soon as you get that one in the yard and unhooked the phones rings again... If you have been around it, it takes a special kind conviction and personal insanity to stay in it. I just sold it and got out of it after fifty years. I just could not drag cable anymore...

[Smokin Joe]

Personally, I have taken great pleasure in wrecking people like that, all my life.

I do business with people that keep their word - Sure all the paper comes later - but the deal is made with a steady eye and an handshake. Anyone who cannot stay true to that is fodder for my cannons. I will eat them. Not with lawyers. With business.


The people I DO business with, I DID business with for years and years. With the same set of subcontractors, and the same set of suppliers. To the point that the folks I knew started to retire.

So don't tell me good business folks ain't out there. That ain't true.
If you can't do business by word with someone, walk away. Simple as that. Over the course of a few years flying right, you'll run into the right people that fly right too, and those are the people that can compound your profits, with less risk, and more confidence.

And always leave some on the table for the next guy.

Exactly!

I can't say how many five figure deals I have made on a handshake.
The only paper needed was an invoice and a check.
If you want the paperwork to CYA, fine, but with those folks, it wasn't necessary.

I remember an overheard conversation..."Send me the title, ready to transfer" "But you don't have the payment yet" "It's Joe, just send the title."

It's a reputation closely guarded on both ends of the deal.

And always leave some meat on the bone.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Heh heh. As the old saying goes, for everything that happens in the economy there are always winners and losers. 

Well, this beef producer has been a loser for 14 of the past 15 years, so the higher beef prices are a welcome relief to claw back losses.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

To me this argument is basically the same as liberals saying you should do without for the sake of the economy environment. Sorry about that!

Ah, the environment.

That is not the same argument as the convenience people do things that only affect them, whereas the climate crazies want EVERYONE to obey they dictates for the sake of Mother Gaia.

The first is freedom, the latter is slavery by a master.

[Smokin Joe]

And that's yet another part of the problem - people just won't back down. Americans in hard times used to scrimp and save, too many of the younger generation have fallen to image and status and simply will not slum.

A good example is meat. In past times when beef got too high people switched to pork or chicken, and made it all stretch. Now it's beef hell-be-damned, and whining because it's $10/lb.

In that situation, I'd look for cheaper, buy in bulk, switch to something else, or simply cut back. Too many people won't. They want it and they want it now. Practically everything they do is impulse buying.

So like the ice situation, the vendor has no pressure to do anything different. People are just too busy busy busy and important to worry about such petty things, so he makes a killing.

I have, more than once looked at the price on some cuts of beef and said "It can sit there at that price and turn green for all I care." You find ways to not pay those prices, or just get something else.

If it won't sell (especially perishable products), then the message is sent.
Lower your prices and make some small profit, or take a loss when it goes bad.

I shop 'loss leaders' and stock up when it's cheap.

I don't begrudge anyone a reasonable profit, they ran some risk getting there.
I'm a ruthless shopper, in the sense that I know what I want and what I'm willing to pay for it.
If it isn't there, I am also willing to walk away from it.
That last part is what makes the market work.

[Free Vulcan]

To me this argument is basically the same as liberals saying you should do without for the sake of the economy environment. Sorry about that!

No it's about personal responsibility. If the populace doesn't exercise it, then it's a seller's market and they have the leverage.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

No it's about personal responsibility. If the populace doesn't exercise it, then it's a seller's market and they have the leverage.

It's not about personal responsibility because the government is stepping in and making something more expensive than it needs to be. That is precisely what a tariff is.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Ah, the environment.

That is not the same argument as the convenience people do things that only affect them, whereas the climate crazies want EVERYONE to obey they dictates for the sake of Mother Gaia.

The first is freedom, the latter is slavery by a master.

Putting a huge tariff on an import is not freedom though is it?

[roamer_1]

And that is exactly why we do not accept a 10% tariff by the EU on US cars while we were only placing a 2.5% tariff on theirs.

Doesn't make any difference - Nobody's gonna buy our sh*t cars anyway. 

[roamer_1]

That would be rational, and absolutely 100% reasonable tariff policy. No dispute there. We should reciprocate everything in trade.

But you can't just look at the trade balance and just assume it's because of unfairness that we have a trade deficit with some nation. We're just better off than a large number of countries.

That's right - It's a built in bias to allow the little guy nations to play... To promote industry growth and etc. I am sure there is a formula somewhere. It's a whole lot more complicated than a bare percentage, I am sure... Though I do not know anyone that can speak to international trade with any real knowledge.

[roamer_1]

It's one thing to remember when businesses are laying people off, they have to make payroll, absolutely. Aside from all the legal issues, a company failling to pay it's employees just looks horrible.

Every time I was headed for the gutter, that was the boogie monster hiding in the closet... payroll is tough on the downswing. and like you said, it is sacrosanct. You can't miss. But you can't let em go either - You need warm bodies to finish the contracts to pay you into a stately collapse.

The second time I went down, that's how it was. I chose to owe Uncle Nanny instead and made my payroll, and paid off my suppliers, all the way to the bitter end.

And at the collapse, I owed Uncle 30k. Boy, that was a hard road home.
It took 5 years to get well.

But that was better than leaving my employees or my creditors holding the bag. However, that was not a pretty place to be. 

[roamer_1]

From there all you have to do is be able to drag that 1 inch wire rope out there by hand... lol

Boy, I heard that. There was a time I could pick up a 500lb anvil and walk away with it. I was the strongest guy in the bar, every time.

Glory days. 

Now, I'm sitting on the porch, and having trouble opening a pickle jar.
Quite the difference. 

[roamer_1]

Another thing that I see is that people just want to go with what I call the Convenience economy. They want what they want, and now, and they just want to walk in, plunk down their money, and go live that run-and-gun ungrounded lifestyle.

Might be fun in your teenage days, but with a spouse raising kids that's not going to cut it unless you're making ridiculous money. What especially most youngins don't understand is that there is also an Undergroud economy that operates on planning, saving, and getting the most bang for the buck.

@roamer_1 have talked about it here a few times. Grow it, raise it, trade for it, buy direct, buy in bulk at the Amish/Mennonite stores, hit the clearance aisle, watch the sales, recycle, repurpose. It's not like it's an ancient skill, it's just fallen out of fashion lately because so many think it's just too inconvenient, and the social media circle does NOT approve.

Thing is, if you're smart with your money, you can nearly live like kings on far less scratch. Especially if you can do/grow/raise, fix or trade it yourself. Especially a lot of Gen Z doesn't like doing that because they're boot kicky, funky fly cool to pay anything less than full retail for the Big Brand item.

And so inflation rages on...

That's right - Though in their defense, the 'Find it broke and fix it' trick is getting mighty sparse. Flipping cars is getting super hard without a hella big bankroll. Same with small engine/ RTV/ Bike/ Snowcat, though it is easier there than in cars. Even in Smalls and appliances - they're just so shitty and complicated that it ain't worth fixing em. If you can't fix a computer board, you might as well give up.

But the whole grow-your-own is a swinging big thing. Even a city lot is enough ground to support a family of four, pretty easy. But nobody's got a garden. Nobody's raising chickens...

Go figger. 

[roamer_1]

To me this argument is basically the same as liberals saying you should do without for the sake of the economy environment. Sorry about that!

It really ain't the same, because you ain't gonna do without. You just have to put in the work. The reward is profound.

[roamer_1]

Well, this beef producer has been a loser for 14 of the past 15 years, so the higher beef prices are a welcome relief to claw back losses.

My last run at it is what, maybe 4 years ago now... Feeder steers... Angus. I think the profit was 6 out of 30 steers, with a partner, in 2 years.

We sold em a little at a time, as piecework for a local processor. He didn't have to buy em, and we just took our end out of the final sales from his freezers. So we got a little nick out of that final organic- priced product. Did alright.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Putting a huge tariff on an import is not freedom though is it?

Why?

No one has to pay the tariffs. They can choose to not sell to us.

[roamer_1]

Exactly!

I can't say how many five figure deals I have made on a handshake.
The only paper needed was an invoice and a check.
If you want the paperwork to CYA, fine, but with those folks, it wasn't necessary.

I remember an overheard conversation..."Send me the title, ready to transfer" "But you don't have the payment yet" "It's Joe, just send the title."

It's a reputation closely guarded on both ends of the deal.

And always leave some meat on the bone.

Oh yeah... You can't move fast enough if you have to wait for paper. Something happens, there's a change, and six carpenters are standing there waiting... So maybe you get a witness, and maybe a bar napkin, and you and the contractor pound it out, right there.

*Handshake*. Done.

Tens of thousands on the line with that handshake. By the time that change order gets to him through my office and his office to get to his desk, the work is already long gone. He BETTER sign that thing.

And if he's worth his salt, he will. 

[roamer_1]

No it's about personal responsibility. If the populace doesn't exercise it, then it's a seller's market and they have the leverage.

Liberty has responsibilities.
Freedom has consequences.
 

[roamer_1]

Putting a huge tariff on an import is not freedom though is it?

No. Not if there is no other choice.
Then it is a tax.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Why?

No one has to pay the tariffs. They can choose to not sell to us.

Maybe but wouldn't the more pro-freedom thing to do is to label the country of origin and give consumers the choice of whether or not they want to buy the item?

[Atruepatriot]

Boy, I heard that. There was a time I could pick up a 500lb anvil and walk away with it. I was the strongest guy in the bar, every time.

Glory days. 

Now, I'm sitting on the porch, and having trouble opening a pickle jar.
Quite the difference. 

I'm getting there too. I am 64 and can still dig holes and still in pretty good shape for my age. But that dragging wire rope out there is no joke. Even most young strong men could not do it.  Only thing that saved me for all those years was technique and method. lol

[Smokin Joe]

I'm getting there too. I am 64 and can still dig holes and still in pretty good shape for my age. But that dragging wire rope out there is no joke. Even most young strong men could not do it.  Only thing that saved me for all those years was technique and method. lol

Yeah. Hook it to the bucket of the payloader and step back...
(Slipping drilling line on a rig).

[Wingnut]

Boy, I heard that. There was a time I could pick up a 500lb anvil and walk away with it. I was the strongest guy in the bar, every time.

Glory days. 

Now, I'm sitting on the porch, and having trouble opening a pickle jar.
Quite the difference. 

Back in the day I could pull an engine out of a 70 Chevelle 396 without a hoist.   Wait, maybe it was a 5hp Briggs and Stratton out of a Sears Ezy Start Push Mower.   

[Smokin Joe]

Back in the day I could pull an engine out of a 70 Chevelle 396 without a hoist.   Wait, maybe it was a 5hp Briggs and Stratton out of a Sears Ezy Start Push Mower.   

I did put the block from a 390 on the engine stand by myself.
It was stripped (not even the main caps on it), but that sucker was heavy.
Never again...>sigh<

[Wingnut]

I did put the block from a 390 on the engine stand by myself.
It was stripped (not even the main caps on it), but that sucker was heavy.
Never again...>sigh<

Sins of our youth.  Never knew when to say Okay...I got this.... maybe not

[DB]

Why?

No one has to pay the tariffs. They can choose to not sell to us.

Not true. I have to pay tariffs or go out of business. Electronic components are manufactured all over the world. Even American branded parts can have tariffs applied to them. I recently purchased a power supply evaluation board to evaluate a new part I'm considering using on a new product. The tariff was an additional 100%.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Not true. I have to pay tariffs or go out of business. Electronic components are manufactured all over the world. Even American branded parts can have tariffs applied to them. I recently purchased a power supply evaluation board to evaluate a new part I'm considering using on a new product. The tariff was an additional 100%.

Parts and electronic components are very high-margin categories.

I would put on a 300% margin on any refrigeration compressor moving out to the Caribbean.

State side maybe 150%.

[roamer_1]

I'm getting there too. I am 64 and can still dig holes and still in pretty good shape for my age. But that dragging wire rope out there is no joke. Even most young strong men could not do it.  Only thing that saved me for all those years was technique and method. lol

Oh, i know about it. I have drug my share of cable, though I tended more to chain. I have been a hook for machinery all along... I have a knack for rigging, and knowing the center of any kind of thing to pick up or drag... Though I worked mostly under tractors, backhoes, trackhoes and Michigan loaders, dozers, forklifts and the like..

Evidently it's hard for some folks to rig for center, build a cradle, and such... I come by it naturally.  Anything up to a crane, I am gonna be the ground guy.

Or so I was... Not no more. I am 63, and lost my back about 3 years ago... the operation stopped my degradation, but my legs don't work so good anymore, and I can't find balance in my feet anymore. So I push a buggy around and get my balance from my hands.

It's pretty much put me on the porch. 

But I am alright with it. My turn in the barrel, and all that... Still, so much of what I used to do makes me wistful... The old horse, longing for the traces... 

Thanks for that. Living vicariously brings fond memories. 

[roamer_1]

Back in the day I could pull an engine out of a 70 Chevelle 396 without a hoist.   Wait, maybe it was a 5hp Briggs and Stratton out of a Sears Ezy Start Push Mower.   

Back in the day, I picked up many a chevy 350 long block and put it in the pickup... Did it many, many times.

A porker was possible, but not worth the effort. Get a jack for that. 

[roamer_1]

And to this day, nothing pisses me off worse than someone who don't know how to put away a chain. Except maybe putting tools away dirty.

[Smokin Joe]

And to this day, nothing pisses me off worse than someone who don't know how to put away a chain. Except maybe putting tools away dirty.

Chains are easy. Slop 'em around in the mud and tie knots in them. 

(Yes, I AM kidding. That's a flogging offense).

[txradioguy]

IMO the bread and cereals along with the beef increases/smaller herds all come back to corn farmers deciding to sell their crops for ethanol production over more traditional uses.

Less feed at the stock yards = small herds


Less corn for certain cereal brands - higher prices for a box of Corn Flakes.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Ethanol (corn) and Bio-Diesel (soy beans) production is an uneconomical Goverment mis-allocation of feed grain resources.

Structural food inflation began with the ethanol/bio-fuel mandates and subsidies.  They are were compounded by the war against chemical fertilizers.

[DB]

Parts and electronic components are very high-margin categories.

I would put on a 300% margin on any refrigeration compressor moving out to the Caribbean.

State side maybe 150%.

No, they are not. Parts are resistors, capacitors, inductors, ferrites, general purpose integrated circuits and many other parts are low margin high volume.

[Bigun]

No, they are not. Parts are resistors, capacitors, inductors, ferrites, general purpose integrated circuits and many other parts are low margin high volume.

Sidebar question @DB how does one distinguish between resisters and capacitors these days? Never mind determining their values.

[txradioguy]

Ethanol (corn) and Bio-Diesel (soy beans) production is an uneconomical Goverment mis-allocation of feed grain resources.

Structural food inflation began with the ethanol/bio-fuel mandates and subsidies.  They are were compounded by the war against chemical fertilizers.

Bingo!

[DB]

Sidebar question @DB how does one distinguish between resisters and capacitors these days? Never mind determining their values.

Resistors normally have a black colored metal film covered by a thin layer of transparent glaze on top of a white ceramic base with metal end caps. The thin long side edges between end caps look white while the top is black. They are normally significantly thinner than their width.

Capacitors commonly have a brownish body color that are the same color on the entire body of the part excluding in the metal end caps. They are typically the same thickness as their width (square cross section). Capacitors can be light gray in color too depending on the type.

The resistor and capacitors I commonly use are about 0.04" long by 0.02" wide (0402 size) and the thickness varies. There are normally no labels on them because they are so small. Specialty parts may be laser marked with tiny print.

Semiconductors normally have some form a marking with the smaller ones having only a short code that can be translated into the part number for that manufacturer including a lot code. The larger ones will normally have the actual part number, package code and temperature grade along with the date code. The very small ones are typically laser marked with extremely small print.

[Cyber Liberty]

Well, I was buying eggs for over $4 per dozen earlier this year.  Now under $2

How much are they selling for where you live?

A buck 94

[Free Vulcan]

Ethanol (corn) and Bio-Diesel (soy beans) production is an uneconomical Goverment mis-allocation of feed grain resources.

Structural food inflation began with the ethanol/bio-fuel mandates and subsidies.  They are were compounded by the war against chemical fertilizers.

There's zero connection, unless you think soda pop is food.

[Luis Gonzalez]

There's zero connection, unless you think soda pop is food.

5–10% of food assistance (SNAP) spending going toward sodas and sweetened beverages is the reasonable range supported by USDA-linked data.  

The Government must think that it is.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Bio-fuel producers create additional demand on animal feeds like corn and soybeans, driving up costs to feed livestock.

As livestock feed prices increase, unprofitable farmers send their animals to slaughter to reduce their operational costs and losses.

It's known as the Corn-Hog cycle.

There's zero connection, unless you think soda pop is food.

[Bigun]

Resistors normally have a black colored metal film covered by a thin layer of transparent glaze on top of a white ceramic base with metal end caps. The thin long side edges between end caps look white while the top is black. They are normally significantly thinner than their width.

Capacitors commonly have a brownish body color that are the same color on the entire body of the part excluding in the metal end caps. They are typically the same thickness as their width (square cross section). Capacitors can be light gray in color too depending on the type.

The resistor and capacitors I commonly use are about 0.04" long by 0.02" wide (0402 size) and the thickness varies. There are normally no labels on them because they are so small. Specialty parts may be laser marked with tiny print.

Semiconductors normally have some form a marking with the smaller ones having only a short code that can be translated into the part number for that manufacturer including a lot code. The larger ones will normally have the actual part number, package code and temperature grade along with the date code. The very small ones are typically laser marked with extremely small print.

 

I'm glad I'm not into that anymore.

[Free Vulcan]

Bio-fuel producers create additional demand on animal feeds like corn and soybeans, driving up costs to feed livestock.

As livestock feed prices increase, unprofitable farmers send their animals to slaughter to reduce their operational costs and losses.

It's known as the Corn-Hog cycle.

Quite the opposite. Barring region wide bad crops, there is not near enough demand to support prices above break even without something like ethanol to soak up some of that. Corn nor beans are seeing any upward price pressure from biofuel demand.

The biggest problem with corn and beans right now is ever increasing yields and no where to put it, and a lot of downward price pressure.

[Free Vulcan]

5–10% of food assistance (SNAP) spending going toward sodas and sweetened beverages is the reasonable range supported by USDA-linked data.  

The Government must think that it is.

Well Jake, it's the Govt.

[roamer_1]

Chains are easy. Slop 'em around in the mud and tie knots in them. 

(Yes, I AM kidding. That's a flogging offense).

That's right. How do you get a knot in a chain in the first place?
Have you ever had a chain so muddy and rusty that you had to drag it behind the truck all the way down to the blacktop? Grrr. 

[Smokin Joe]

That's right. How do you get a knot in a chain in the first place?
Have you ever had a chain so muddy and rusty that you had to drag it behind the truck all the way down to the blacktop? Grrr. 

Now do that with a set of tire chains (company truck)...Grrr, indeed! (and a lot of other choice words).

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Quite the opposite. Barring region wide bad crops, there is not near enough demand to support prices above break even without something like ethanol to soak up some of that. Corn nor beans are seeing any upward price pressure from biofuel demand.

The biggest problem with corn and beans right now is ever increasing yields and no where to put it, and a lot of downward price pressure.

Your kidding. Right?

Are u claiming the world no longer needs America's food bounty?

It is more than ridiculous to claim food crops diverted to tge unprofitable production of ethanol is beneficial to the country's economy.

[roamer_1]

Your kidding. Right?

Are u claiming the world no longer needs America's food bounty?

It is more than ridiculous to claim food crops diverted to tge unprofitable production of ethanol is beneficial to the country's economy.

What's really hilarious about the whole thing is that you can make alcohol out of anything - Keep the corn, and make the alcohol from the husks. What is discarded from food processes will do it just as well. And when the mash is spent, dry it out and spread it on the fields you took it from. Like wood alcohol, btw. There is no reason to use food products when the trash will do, and creates a secondary income from what would normally be thrown away.

[berdie]

What's really hilarious about the whole thing is that you can make alcohol out of anything - Keep the corn, and make the alcohol from the husks. What is discarded from food processes will do it just as well. And when the mash is spent, dry it out and spread it on the fields you took it from. Like wood alcohol, btw. There is no reason to use food products when the trash will do, and creates a secondary income from what would normally be thrown away.

Peach wine! Yummy and lethal.

[roamer_1]

Peach wine! Yummy and lethal.

Up in here it's all apple mead and cherry wine. Yummy too, and they'll wreck you.  We've got pears too... somehow nobody uses them that way

Only shine I have ever had was corn. Hi-grade, with the bubbles skittering across the top... One or two shots of that will give you a hella buzz.