Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment October 31, 2025
Excerpts:
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during recent counterattacks north of Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Pokrovsk and east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). Geolocated footage published on October 31 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk)[/b] ...
ISW assesses that these infiltration missions did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA). A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on October 29 that Russian forces are infiltrating Pokrovsk in groups of five to 10 people and that Pokrovsk is mainly a contested “gray zone” ...
The porous nature of the frontline and pervasiveness of drones in this area continues to complicate and obscure the tactical picture in Pokrovsk, and ISW will provide an updated assessment as the situation becomes clearer.
The Pentagon approved the provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 31, but the final decision remains with US President Donald Trump. CNN, citing three US and European officials, reported on October 31 that the Pentagon determined that providing Tomahawks to Ukraine would not negatively impact US stockpiles.
The officials noted that the decision to actually send Ukraine the missiles rests with Trump.
ISW continues to assess that providing US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would parallel Russia's regular use of long-range cruise and ballistic missiles against Ukraine and reduce this important Russian advantage.Russia regularly uses missiles comparable to the Tomahawk, such as Kh-series and Kalibr cruise, Kinzhal aeroballistic, and Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles that Russia uses in its nightly strikes against Ukraine.
Russia has used most of these missile types since 2022 and began using Iskander-K cruise missiles in 2023. The Tomahawk missiles’ long-range and larger payload would enable the Ukrainian military to inflict substantial damage on key Russian military assets located deep within Russian territory, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, and the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast, from which Russia sorties the strategic bombers that fire air-launched cruise missiles at Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus continue to threaten Europe with the future deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on October 31 that Russia will deploy the Oreshnik missile system on combat duty to Belarus in December 2025.Kremlin officials have claimed as recently as October 29 that Russia and Belarus do not feel “safe” given European “Russophobic statements” and supposed militaristic aspirations and hysteria.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is using the Oreshnik as part of a reflexive control campaign and ongoing nuclear saber rattling aimed at undermining Western resolve to militarily support Ukraine ...
Ukraine continues to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian air defense and energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian Navy reported, and geolocated footage indicates, that Ukrainian forces conducted a
Neptune missile strike against the Oryol Thermal Power Plant in Oryol Oblast and the Novobryansk substation in Bryansk Oblast overnight on October 30 to 31.
The Ukrainian Navy reported that both facilities supply power to Russian military enterprises in Oryol Oblast. Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported on October 31 that USF elements, in cooperation with the Russian Chernaya Iskra insurgency group, disabled a Russian Buk-M3 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system and NEBO-U early warning radar system in Rostov Oblast on the night of September 27 to 28.
Russian forces have repeatedly struck Ukraine with nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles since August 2025, in apparent violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha told Reuters on October 31 that Russian forces recently began using nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles against Ukraine, the first public acknowledgement that Russian forces have employed these missiles against Ukraine.
Sybiha noted that the missile's range violates the INF Treaty, which bans ground-launched missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Russian Oreshnik missiles also notably violate the INF Treaty.
A military source told Reuters that Russian forces launched a 9M729 missile against an unspecified target in Ukraine at a range of over 1,200 kilometers on October 5. A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that Russian forces launched Novator missiles against Ukraine twice in 2022 and 23 times since August 2025 ...
A German court convicted several citizens of conspiring to commit acts of sabotage in Germany on behalf of Russia, and Lithuanian authorities closed the Vilnius Airport due to more aerial incursions from Belarusian airspace. German outlet Deutsche Welle (DW) reported on October 30 that a German court convicted a dual German-Russian citizen and two other German citizens of espionage and conspiring to commit acts of sabotage in Germany on behalf of Russia ...
ISW assesses that the aerial incursions into Belarus are very likely linked to Russia's ongoing Phase Zero informational and psychological conditions-setting phase - to gauge NATO's responsiveness and gather actionable intelligence in preparation for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently appointed former First Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Vasily Osmakov as Deputy Minister of Defense. Belousov announced Osmakov’s appointment on October 31 at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Defense Ministers in Kazakhstan ...
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31-2025/
