Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17, 2025
Excerpts:
The Trump administration reportedly approved its first European-financed foreign military sales to Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative. Reuters reported on September 16 that two familiar sources stated that the Trump administration approved its first weapons package to Ukraine through the PURL initiative, which allows NATO members and partners to finance the supply of American weapons and technology to Ukraine.
The sources told Reuters that Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby approved as many as two shipments worth $500 million each that include air defense systems. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 17 that the US package will include Patriot interceptor missiles and HIMARS rockets.
Senior Russian officials continue to publicly signal the Kremlin's unwillingness to engage in negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on September 17 that territorial exchanges will not “stop” Russia's war in Ukraine, in contradiction to US President Donald Trump's recent statements that peace between Russia and Ukraine will require “land swaps.”
Lavrov also asserted that attempts to “entice” Russian President Vladimir Putin with the restoration of US-Russian trade will also not end Russia's war. Lavrov reiterated longstanding Kremlin demands that any future peace settlement eliminate the “root causes” of the war, which Kremlin officials have repeatedly defined as Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers in Ukraine and NATO expansion, among other demands of both Ukraine and NATO ... ISW continues to assess that Russia is uninterested in good-faith negotiations that will require Russian concessions and is willing to protract the war in order to achieve its original, maximalist war demands on the battlefield.
The Kremlin is using the threat of aggression to try to prevent European states from committing troops to postwar Ukraine as part of Western security guarantees. Lavrov claimed that Russia would view any European forces deployed to postwar Ukraine as “legitimate military targets.” Lavrov’s statements follow similar statements from other high-ranking Kremlin officials in recent weeks, rejecting post-war Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Senior Kremlin officials, likely with Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval, pushed Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak out of his senior Kremlin position following years of disagreement with Putin's policies about the war in Ukraine. Russian state media outlet RBK reported on September 17 that two familiar sources stated that Kozak “resigned” from his post over the weekend (September 13 to 14) and is considering various offers to move into business.
Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov similarly reported on September 17 that sources in Moscow stated that Kozak “voluntarily” left his position. Dubnov stated that Kozak was the only participant in the February 21, 2022, Security Council meeting who opposed the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian journalist Alexey Venediktov confirmed Dubnov’s information on September 17.
Kozak reportedly brokered a deal with Ukraine at the start of the war that would have prevented Ukrainian membership in NATO, but Putin reportedly rejected the deal since Putin also wanted to annex Ukrainian territory. The New York Times additionally reported on August 10 that Western and Russian sources indicated that Kozak lost his influence in the Kremlin after Kozak advised Putin in the past few months to immediately stop fighting in Ukraine, start peace negotiations, and reduce the power of Russia's security services.
Kozak’s reported repeated disagreements with Putin suggest that Putin and possibly other Kremlin powerbrokers, such as Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko, removed Kozak from his position or pushed him to “resign” on his own. Putin signed a decree on August 29 abolishing the Presidential Administration's Department for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries and Department for Cross-Border Cooperation, both of which Kozak supervised, likely in preparation for Kozak’s departure ...
Kozak was previously one of Putin's closest advisors and oversaw Kremlin strategy in Ukraine before the Kremlin shifted this responsibility to Kiriyenko in 2022. Kiriyenko has also reportedly recently taken over Kozak’s management of the Kremlin's Moldova portfolio. Kozak’s move out of the Kremlin will cement Kiriyenko’s power and responsibilities within the Presidential Administration. Putin's likely decision to push an established senior Kremlin official from his inner circle ... indicates that Putin and his advisors are coalescing around their commitment to continue the war in Ukraine and around Putin's maximalist war demands.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) identified the base and commander of Russia's Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies. RFE/RL reported on September 17 that Colonel Sergei Viktorovich Budnikov, who previously served in the 61st Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (Northern Fleet) and the 9th Artillery Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), is the commander of the Rubikon Center ... A Russian milblogger claimed on September 4 that the number of published cases of Rubikon destroying Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones increased by more than 20 times to over 440 cases between the end of February 2025 and the end of August 2025. Rubikon elements have been striking Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOC), including in the Dobropillya and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical areas. Rubikon strikes have contributed to Russia's ability to achieve some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) in Ukraine.
RFL/RE identified the location of Rubikon’s headquarters in the Patriot Convention and Exhibition Center within Patriot Park near Moscow City ... The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is directing recruits to the Avangard Center, and Russian forces are reportedly training foreign recruits at Avangard. Russia has been leveraging the Rubikon Center to improve its theater-wide drone capabilities in Ukraine, and Rubikon may be working with the Avangard Center and other military elements at or near Patriot Park to train Russian soldiers and youth in drone operations.
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) command and staff military exercises are occurring in Kyrgyzstan from September 17 to 20 ... The CSTO stated that the core of the Russian contingent consists of elements of the Central Military District (CMD), including from its 201st Military Base in Tajikistan, and that a total number of 1,200 personnel and 500 pieces of military equipment, including aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and combat boats, are participating in the exercise ...
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-17-2025/
