Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29, 2025
Excerpts:
Russia reportedly leveraged the August 15 Alaska Summit in order to stall for a planned Fall 2025 offensive, among other things. ... Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to use the Alaska Summit to “play for time” ahead of a potential Russian offensive in October or November 2025.
This report is consistent with recent Ukrainian warnings of Russian efforts to prepare for renewed offensives in the future, though it is not yet clear where Russian forces may focus their main effort in Fall 2025 ... Russian forces postponed their initial plan to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by August 1 to December 31, 2025, and that Russian forces increased strikes against Kherson City in accordance with plans to do so.
Russian forces notably took advantage of the August 15 Alaska Summit to intensify ongoing offensive operations in certain areas of the theater, such as conducting an infiltration operation near Dobropillya, and to stockpile drones and missiles that Russian forces used to strike Kyiv and inflict heavy civilian casualties overnight on August 27 to 28.
Reports that Russian forces are still planning for a Fall 2025 offensive support ISW’s long-term assessment and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent statements that the Kremlin's war aims in Ukraine have not changed.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov gave a major speech at the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Collegium on August 29. Belousov gave an update on the 10 priority directions for the Russian MoD ... Russian advances in August 2025 are far below Belousov’s claims. Belousov’s statement also ignores that Russian forces are making these gains in open fields and areas with minimal fortifications, through failed infiltration operations such as those east and northeast of Dobropillya, and at heavy personnel losses.
Ukrainian General Staff reporting about Russian personnel casualties thus indicates that Russian forces suffered an average of 938 personnel casualties per day thus far in August 2025.
Belousov stated that 97% of wounded in action (200s WIA) service members return to the front lines “after being wounded,” which is consistent with reports that the Russian military command continues to send injured Russian personnel on attritional, infantry-led assaults.
Belousov indicated that the Russian MoD has shifted its priorities to produce light vehicles over heavy armored vehicles, reflecting Russian battlefield tactics since winter 2024–2025 ... ISW previously observed reports from unspecified Russian military sources that claimed that Russia purchased over 40,000 Chinese-made motorcycles in 2024 and intends to purchase up to 200,000 motorcycles and 60,000 other light vehicles in 2025.
Russian forces are increasingly fielding light vehicles including motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and buggies in lieu of heavy armored vehicles such as tanks due to their maneuverability and cheap cost relative to armored vehicles, which Ukrainian drone operations threaten. Russian forces have not implemented adequate protection for armored vehicles and tanks against Ukrainian drone strikes and Russia faces declining tank and armored vehicle stockpiles.
Belousov stated that Russia continues to focus on developing its Unmanned Systems Forces and drone production capacity. Belousov stated that Russian forces are focused on integrating elements of the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces units into the wider Russian forces and noted that the MoD must still augment logistics and repairs, implement faster training of drone operators, and better staff unmanned systems units ...
Belousov indicated that the Russian MoD is expanding its efforts to digitalize Russian recruitment likely as part of wider efforts to augment Russia's administrative capacity to handle conscription and mobilization processes. Belousov noted that the MoD continues implementing a myriad of digital changes to streamline administrative processes for Russian personnel, including on-boarding new service members, receiving feedback and appeals from Russian service members, and digitizing the application process and issuance of combat veteran status ...
US and Ukrainian representatives met in New York City on August 29 and reaffirmed Ukraine's readiness for peace negotiations with Russia, including at the level of heads of state. Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak [ a former KGB operative ] stated on August 29 that he and Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsia met with US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witless and emphasized Ukraine's readiness to end the war.
Yermak noted that Ukraine welcomes all US-proposed peace initiatives and efforts to end the war and that Ukraine is ready for direct negotiations at the level of heads of state.
The US State Department approved three Foreign Military Sales (FMS) of aviation ammunition, Starlink services, and Patriot air defense system support to Ukraine. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on August 28 that the US State Department approved an FMS to Ukraine worth roughly $825 million that includes up to 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) air-launched missiles and 3,350 navigation systems equipped with modules equipped with anti-spoofing modules, weapons components and spare parts, support equipment, weapons software and support equipment, technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, and logistics and transportation support.
The DCSA reported that Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and US Foreign Military Funding are funding this FMS to Ukraine. The DSCA announcement confirmed an August 24 report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that the United States had approved the sale of the 3,350 ERAMs for Ukraine.
The DCSA announced on August 29 that the US State Department approved another FMS to Ukraine worth roughly $150 million that includes an extension of Starlink terminal support services and a 3rd FMS to Ukraine worth roughly $179 million that includes Patriot air defense system spare parts, maintenance, and related equipment and technical support.
Russian forces recently executed seven Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Myrolyubivka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported on August 29 that it opened an investigation into Russian forces who brutally tortured and executed 7 Ukrainian POWs in a basement near Myrolyubivka, Donetsk Oblast in August 2025, and attempted to kill an 8th Ukrainian POW who survived the execution attempt.
Ukrainian outlet Suspilne detailed how the surviving Ukrainian POW crawled to safety for 5 days after the executions and noted that the POW had to write his account of the executions by hand because the injury Russian forces inflicted prevented him from verbally speaking.
There has been a sharp increase in credible reports and footage of Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs throughout 2024 and 2025, and ISW continues to assess that Russian military commanders including battlefield commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling their subordinates to conduct systemic executions in direct violation of international law.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-2025
