Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2025
Excerpts:
The United States is reportedly willing to supply supporting assets to a European-led force grouping as part of postwar security guarantees for Ukraine ... the United States would be prepared to contribute “strategic enablers,” such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR); command and control (C2); and air defense assets, to support a future European-led deployment on the ground in postwar Ukraine as part of security guarantees for Ukraine.
European officials reportedly stated that European states can only deploy troops to Ukraine with US support that enables, oversees, and protects the European ground troops ... US postwar support would include US aircraft, logistics, and ground-based radar that would support and enable a European-enforced no-fly zone and air shield for Ukraine ... such US support is contingent on European states’ commitment to deploy “tens of thousands” of troops to Ukraine.
3 of the officials reportedly stated that Ukrainian troops would defend behind a demilitarized zone that neutral peacekeeping troops would patrol. NATO states would reportedly arm and train these Ukrainian forces. A European-led “deterrence force” would reportedly operate deeper in Ukraine as a “3rd line of defense,” and US assets would operate further in the rear.
High-ranking Kremlin officials have repeatedly rejected Western security guarantees for Ukraine and specifically the presence of troops from NATO countries as part of such guarantees ... Lavrov recently stated in an interview with NBC that Western states, including the United States, should not be allowed to be responsible for Ukraine's post-war security ... The Kremlin would likely reject a US and European security guarantee proposal like the one US and European officials are reportedly discussing.
The United States will impose an additional 25% tariff on India's exports to the United States due to India's ongoing purchases of Russian oil ...
Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russia's oil refineries have contributed to gasoline shortages across Russia that will likely raise inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia ... Increased gasoline prices and a lowered interest rate, coupled with long-term increased payments to sustain military recruitment and augment the defense industrial base's (DIB) labor force, however, will likely cause inflation to spike, weaken consumer purchasing power, devalue the ruble in the medium- to long-term, and create further macroeconomic instability in Russia.
The Russian government proposed that Russian President Vladimir Putin withdraw from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. The Russian Cabinet of Ministers proposed on August 25 that Putin submit a decree to the Russian State Duma to withdraw from the convention. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the proposal ... The proposed withdrawal would be in line with recent Russian measures likely aimed at worsening Russian abuses of Ukrainian prisoners in Russia and occupied Ukraine, including Putin's July 23 decree authorizing the creation of autonomous Federal Security Service ( FSB ) pre-trial detention facilities.
ISW has observed numerous independent investigations from early 2025 detailing a systematic increase in Russia's torture of Ukrainians held in Russian detention.
Russian residents in border areas are increasingly apathetic toward the war and accepting that Russia will not agree to an end to the war in the near future. Russian opposition outlet Insider reported on August 25 that Russian civilians living in border areas are decreasingly donating toward and volunteering for the war effort ... they do not think that Russia will accept a ceasefire in the near future and anticipate that the war will continue. Interviewees stated that civilians near the border were initially invested in and donated to the war effort, but that there is no longer any motivation to help the military.
An interviewee from Belgorod Oblast claimed that border residents increasingly view Russian soldiers as threats, due to the high risk of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian soldiers, and instances in which Russian forces have damaged civilian infrastructure and stolen from local residents ... people are tired of the war, want to return to a normal life, and do not want to fundraise for the war effort, because the war has no apparent end ... Moscow's war aims are constantly changing, suggesting that Putin's attempts to target US audiences with claims about his willingness to negotiate are clashing with posturing to Russian audiences that Russia remains committed to achieving its war goals. Putin's attempts to play to both information spaces may be confusing Russian audiences.
Russian state and independent polling from early 2025 indicated that most Russians support continuing the war in Ukraine, suggesting that populations in the areas bordering Ukraine who feel the war most firsthand are less supportive of the war effort than those in areas further from the fighting.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-26-2025
