Catastrophic flash flooding along Guadalupe River, Texas

[Smokin Joe]

Sometimes shit just happens.  Try as they might the weather does not come with a California type warning label.  Life is hazardous to your health.

Yep. Something comes off a truck going down the highway and takes a bad hop, and 'game over'. You don't get to hit 'reset' and play again. When you consider that we joke about weathermen (What other job can you get it wrong every day and still have a job tomorrow>), these guys did pretty well.

Four AM is a bad time for most folks, which is why a lot of dynamic entry raids are done then--because people are at their worst in terms of being able to respond to most anything--especially something unexpected. Just one more hole in the swiss cheese that lined up...

[berdie]

Excellent post, and Kudos to the meteorologist who presented it. Some things are beyond our ability to predict, and the confluence of rare and serious events can often have tragic consequences.

This is a horrible event. I understand folks wanting to place blame. It's a natural reaction. But, frankly, sometimes nature overcomes humans. It's been that way since the beginning of time.

I wouldn't give 2 cents for these politicians trying to point fingers. It's disgusting.

[Bigun]

Yep. Something comes off a truck going down the highway and takes a bad hop, and 'game over'. You don't get to hit 'reset' and play again. When you consider that we joke about weathermen (What other job can you get it wrong every day and still have a job tomorrow>), these guys did pretty well.

Four AM is a bad time for most folks, which is why a lot of dynamic entry raids are done then--because people are at their worst in terms of being able to respond to most anything--especially something unexpected. Just one more hole in the swiss cheese that lined up...

That very thing nearly happened to me some years ago. I was driving along minding my own business when something fell off a drilling rig approaching me, bounced one time, and exploded the door window right behind my head. A couple of milliseconds later and I would have been history.

[Bigun]

People have been living and flourishing in the Texas hill country since LONG before the advent of the national weather service. How can that be?

[Smokin Joe]

People have been living and flourishing in the Texas hill country since LONG before the advent of the national weather service. How can that be?

Well, (and from studying a few pre-european native campsites) you camp far enough away from the water that the outhouse (or whatever) doesn't make the water foul, and it takes the kids long enough to go to the river for water and come back that you have the opportunity to make another one.

[deb]

https://twitter.com/Nerdy_Addict/status/1942232529169182960

These girls are the same age as my granddaughters. Oh sweet Jesus, have mercy on us. This is too hard.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

When you consider that we joke about weathermen (What other job can you get it wrong every day and still have a job tomorrow>), these guys did pretty well.

My dad was a meteorologist for the Navy in WW2 and later for his entire career with the US Weather Service.

He heard all the jokes over the years and told me once "Son, don't ever say 100% chance of rain, make it 90% chance because someone, somewhere will get no rain and think you incompetent.  Same goes in reverse for 0% chance of rain."

Ask any sailor and they will tell you how difficult it is to predict the weather, even when their lives depended upon it.

One never gets it right all the time.

Oh BTW, when he retired my dad bought a lakehouse that he scouted out that was in a 100 year flood zone.  After he passed, the house got under water twice.  Even the best can err.

[Smokin Joe]

These girls are the same age as my granddaughters. Oh sweet Jesus, have mercy on us. This is too hard.

I have great grands in this age group. Prayers up for the families...

[Bigun]

These girls are the same age as my granddaughters. Oh sweet Jesus, have mercy on us. This is too hard.

I would never recover had this happened on my watch. My heart breaks for all involved including the survivors.

[mystery-ak]

[mystery-ak]

These girls are the same age as my granddaughters. Oh sweet Jesus, have mercy on us. This is too hard.

I know..my granddaughter is eight...

[libertybele]

[mystery-ak]

I have to take a break posting on this thread...I just can't take it anymore.

https://twitter.com/Joe_S_Pure/status/1942370995764969616

[Right_in_Virginia]

I have to take a break posting on this thread...I just can't take it anymore.

https://twitter.com/Joe_S_Pure/status/1942370995764969616

I give you mega credit for staying on it so long @mystery-ak

I want social media to stop trying to elicit emotional reactions from people.  At this point we understand the horror, the injustice, the magnitude of the loss.  The focus should now be on coordinating and promoting prayer services and contributions to help the families, towns and communities heal.

[Smokin Joe]

I give you mega credit for staying on it so long @mystery-ak

I want social media to stop trying to elicit emotional reactions from people.  At this point we understand the horror, the injustice, the magnitude of the loss.  The focus should now be on coordinating and promoting prayer services and contributions to help the families, towns and communities heal.

Let's go one more. How about warning systems tied to actual stream flow, and not conjecture. On the ground, sirens and the like.

[jafo2010]

Well, we all know it was climate change and Trump's fault.


Jeez, these Democommies are just too much. 

I will say, with all our technology expertise, we should be able to establish systems that warn people in advance.  People end up dying in these flash floods across the USA with some frequency.  My first wife, her mother lived at the top of a small mountain, and below, at the base, during a flash flood, I believe 26 people were swept away from their homes and died in Shadyside, Ohio, folks that lived along the tiny roadside stream that became a huge flash of flooding water.

It happens frequently enough that the time has come to establish a process for warning people on a national basis when this type event happens. 

Most are old enough here that they remember being trained on what to do if we have a nuclear attack.  We were instructed to hide under our desks like that would provide protection.  I am not suggesting something stupid, but perhaps a system put in place where when a certain type siren goes off, people know to scramble to high ground ASAP. 

Long overdue that we do something as a nation to prevent this type of tragedy from happening.

[Lando Lincoln]

For those wondering how this happened, why there wasn't more warning, etc., this video from a Houston meteorologist explains the weather that caused the flooding pretty well, as well as laying out the timing of events:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOA6lowVozQ

Thank you.

[Lando Lincoln]

I have to take a break posting on this thread...I just can't take it anymore.

https://twitter.com/Joe_S_Pure/status/1942370995764969616

Thank you @mystery-ak as always. Now that names, faces, family members and rescuers are becoming known, this tragedy becomes so personal. You have done an amazing job.

[mountaineer]

The Shadyside flood @jafo010 mentioned is commemorated every year. It's painfully etched on the collective memory of the upper Ohio valley. Less than a month ago, nearby Wheeling experienced flooding that took 9 lives.

It happens all too frequently - Texas, Appalachia, wherever - and sometimes the warnings are insufficient, too late, not heard, or simply ignored.

[mystery-ak]

United Cajun Navy says 'mentally tough' combat veterans assisting in search for Texas flood victims

United Cajun Navy Vice President Brian Trascher told “Fox & Friends” on Tuesday that a specialized team of mainly combat veterans is helping search for victims of the central Texas flooding.

“It’s something that you never get over,” Trascher said in reference to finding young victims.

“Normally in these kind of missions we will put out like a wide call for volunteers... but we stuck to what we call special ops volunteers who are pretty much all combat veterans – very mentally tough, very able to handle anything emotionally,” he said. “They do come across some things that are really hard to see.”

Trascher also said the devastation in central Texas is similar to what his organization saw following Hurricane Helene in North Carolina.

“The biggest contrast is the response is completely different. The coordination between the state of Texas and the federal government was from day one and it has been highly professional and highly effective in our opinion. It makes our job as easier as volunteers,” he said.

The United Cajun Navy describes itself as a “grassroots nonprofit organization” based in Louisiana.

“Armed with boats, trucks, and an unyielding sense of community, the United Cajun Navy specializes in delivering life-saving rescue efforts, humanitarian aid, and logistical support in areas severely affected by floods, hurricanes, and other catastrophic events,” it said on its website.
Posted by Greg Norman

[mystery-ak]

33 min(s) ago
National Weather Service says 'isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible' in central Texas

The National Weather Service said Tuesday that “isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms are forecast across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and eastern Hill Country” in Texas.

“Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible,” its Austin/San Antonio office said. “Chances of rain will decrease gradually Tuesday. Drier and warmer conditions are forecast Wednesday through the weekend.”
Posted by Greg Norman

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1942564801487556648

[mystery-ak]

 Texas dad refused to let go of ‘his babies’ during flood — and all were swept away, witness says
By Steven Vago and
Anthony Blair   
Published July 7, 2025, 5:15 p.m. ET


KERRVILLE, Texas — A stricken dad clinging to a tree while holding “his babies” during the floods refused to toss the kids to residents, and they were all soon swept away, a shattered local said Monday.

“My husband was in the water trying to ask them, ‘Please throw me your baby!’ The man was holding tight to his babies, and he just got swept away,” said Lorena Guillen, owner of the Blue Oak RV Park in Kerr County, the region hardest hit by the state’s catastrophic flooding last week.

The tragic dad, John Burgess, who lived in Liberty, Texas, is among the confirmed dead, KWTX reported.


John Burgess died while holding onto his children during the floods at Blue Oak RV Park in Kerr County, Texas, during the flood last week. Facebook

His wife, Julia, and two young sons are still missing, while the couple’s daughter, who was staying at a nearby summer camp, is safe.

The family had come to the RV park for the July 4 holiday, Guillen said.

more
https://nypost.com/2025/07/07/us-news/texas-dad-refused-to-let-go-of-his-babies-during-flood-and-all-were-swept-away-witness-says/

[mystery-ak]

[Right_in_Virginia]

Let's go one more. How about warning systems tied to actual stream flow, and not conjecture. On the ground, sirens and the like.

Sure @Smokin Joe.   Methinks it's unrealistic, but if it offers much needed hope in this moment, count me in.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Possible with an integrated system of rain measures, flood prediction modeling, satellite measures, buoys, and guages.

Coast Guard and NOAA use ocean buoys to measure wave height, tides, storm surges, and tsunamis.

Canada may even have such capabilities to monitor the Bay of Fundy, which has extreme tides.  Bay of Fundy, Canada, would be a great testing ground for a flash flood monitoring and warning system because those extreme tide cycles occur twice a day with variations caused by moon cycles and storms.