2025 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

Placeholder for tropical discussion for '25.

Saw this morning that a High End Cat 3 storm (Erick)  just hit the west coast of Mexico with 125 mph winds.  I know it's extremely early but based on ENSO trends, typically tropical activity favors one or the other in EPAC (East Pacific basin) vs. Atlantic basin.  That's not cast in stone, and these things often change mid season.  But one positive bit of news for our neighborhood, at least early on.

In our neighborhood?  We are right in the middle of a very significant NW to SE winds upper and mid level air flows in the Gulf of America through the eastern Caribbean.  No chance of even creating some organized convection.  But, let's enjoy the quiet while we can

[catfish1957]

22-Jun-2025 update

Still calm in the Atlantic Basin.  Gulf of America is beautifully sprinkled by cumulus clouds.  Nothing near organized connection, or cloud cover for that matter.. East Coast...all clear, but this area isn't watched much at this time of the year.

The SW Caribbean OTOH, has flared up some strong convection, but a strong SW-NE shear axis isn't going to allow much organization.

[catfish1957]

Guess I've been snoozing, as I noticed this morning that the SC coast was getting TS force winds, and we now have the "C" Storm in the books,.  Chantal.

As far as other features, the ITCZ is relatively quiet.  (Not prime time yet), The GOA is seeing increases of overall convection, but a pretty decent overall N/S shear in the Gulf won't likely see much development.  July storms in the gulf are fairly uncommon, but not out of the question.'

An area to continue to watch is that almost ITCZ like frontal trough that lies eastward off the Carolinas at generally 35N.  I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two more spinoff systems, at that location in the next week or so.

[Cyber Liberty]

 

[catfish1957]

Brief update from yesterday's synopsis.....

Frontal boundary off shooting from Chantal has all but evaporated.  Except for about a 100 square mile area of convection about 100-150 miles east of The Bahamas.  Area is fairly devoid of sheer.  The NHC is not recognizing the area yet, but if this trend continues, I expect them to give it an Invest Status upgrade. ic

Atlantic clear as is normal this time of the year.

GOA looking clear, though there is one decent cluster of storms in the South central area.  Way too early to be considered.

[libertybele]

I am still hoping for a quiet season for a change.  We've seen quite a bit of action the past couple of years. 

Colorado State issues slight decrease in hurricane forecast; landfall chances still above-average

Even with the downgrade, it is forecast that FL is the #1 target for storms and hurricanes this season.

https://www.wgcu.org/hurricane/2025-07-09/colorado-state-issues-slight-decrease-in-hurricane-forecast-landfall-chances-still-above-average

[catfish1957]

NHC this morning has issued an advisory this morning of a new Invest that has a slight chance of development in the upcoming week.  There is a pretty strong mid to upper level low stretching from FL to Western Bahamas.  A few things to keep in mind as this thing moves slowly westward into the eastern Gulf of America.

1. Placement of the low as it starts to develop in the NE GOA is critical.  I can see this thing staying to far north to allow for development due to interaction of land.
2. Shear has relaxed in the central GOA.  If this thing say gets initiizatiion say lat 25-ish.  I think we might see something.
3. Climatologically this is not a typical area for formation of storms in mid July. 
4. GOA Temps are warm enough to support development.

At this moment the NHC has it only seeing a 30% chance of development in the next 7 days.

[catfish1957]

This afternoon AL93 is flaring up nicely in the NE Gulf of America.  3 separate large thunderstorm complexes have lined up E-> W along general 29N.  Roughly near Pensacola, Mobile,. and Morgan City.  The NHC still has the probability of reaching Tropical Storm strength through the period at 40%. 

Two main points are (1) Overall convection is mushrooming, and it will be interesting to see if a COC picks one of these 3 areas to start some organization.  (2) 93AL is flying though the northern Gulf easily 20-30Kt, so that hurts chances somewhat for rapid development.   None of  the these thunderstorm complexes are providing any movement thus far that one suggest a surface low is forming, but the convection is impressive, so its not out of the question.

[libertybele]

This afternoon AL93 is flaring up nicely in the NE Gulf of America.  3 separate large thunderstorm complexes have lined up E-> W along general 29N.  Roughly near Pensacola, Mobile,. and Morgan City.  The NHC still has the probability of reaching Tropical Storm strength through the period at 40%. 

Two main points are (1) Overall convection is mushrooming, and it will be interesting to see if a COC picks one of these 3 areas to start some organization.  (2) 93AL is flying though the northern Gulf easily 20-30Kt. None of  the these thunderstorm complexes are providing any movement thus far that one suggest a surface low is forming, but the convection is impressive, so its not out of the question.

The NHC and NWS had this system much further south and encompassed the east coast as well and it was forecast that we were supposed to get two days of rain from it.  However, Invest 93L moved rather swiftly out of our area and we weren't effected by it much.

We've been getting daily afternoon rains which is  typical for our area.

Maybe Louisiana??

[Bigun]

The weather readers on TV have to have something to talk about I guess but this is a great big nothingburger.

It's far too close to land for anything of concern to develop.

[libertybele]

The weather readers on TV have to have something to talk about I guess but this is a great big nothingburger.

It's far too close to land for anything of concern to develop.

IMO the NHC is overly depicting which areas are going to be covered in an over abundance of caution.  What is need is precise and accurate information.  Otherwise down the road people will be evacuated for no reason, needlessly stuck on the interstates along with needless hotel reservations.

I realize they want to save lives.  I get that.  However, they can pinpoint exactly where they think a storm is going to hit, but weather can be absolutely unpredictable.  AI has helped and was far more accurate in their predictions than other models last year, but weather can change in a second and then that storm is right on top of people without much warning.

[catfish1957]

First east Atlantic disturbance of the year has formed, and I guess it will be assigned Invest 94L.  The center of the wide area of convection is at about 9N 47W.  NHC only gives the. system a 10% chance of forming a T.S. within 7 days.   Main thing is this pretty much is green light to start Cape Verde season.  and with the present ENSO, I expect that area "might" be pretty active as we get closer to August. and really ramping up in September.

Not mentioned by NHC, but there is also another pretty strong wave about 500 miles east of 94L.  at about 10N, 40W.  Otherwise Caribbean and GOA, look pretty clear for the next few days.

[catfish1957]

"D" Storm Dexter has formed and is about 600 or so miles east of the Carolinas  Pure Fish storm, no impacts, outside a few swells at Bermuda.
 
But.....   Cape Verde Season has officially started.  Nice clump of convection spinning off the west coast of Africa that the NHC thinks has a decent (50%) of forming a tropical storm within the next 5 days, generally along Lat 15 N.  The good news if trends hold, is that they expected location of the system seems to be turning at Long 50W.  This one is a couple of weeks away from being any concern to anyone though,

[jmyrlefuller]

We have our first Atlantic Hurricane, Erin!

Currently projected to not make landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents

[catfish1957]

We have our first Atlantic Hurricane, Erin!

Currently projected to not make landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents

And good thing.  NHC has most of its life clocking in at a Cat 3 o4 4. storm.  Good sign we are seeing that Cape Verde scenario of.....  north storm trending as it approaches the Antilles.   I hope it keeps that way the entire season.

[catfish1957]

Erin....The perfect storm?

Erin has rapidly become a Cat 5 storm, and might keep that status for the next 5 days.   Why do I call it the perfect storm?  Perfect in that it looks like it might thread the needle of minimal impact to humans.  Transversing the Atlantic in a way where the Islands are bothered, nor the US Coast, or Bermuda. 

Another reason it is perfect?  Nothing like a Cat 5 storm spending off the thermal heat built up in the Atlantic Basin that might fuel future storms.  Especially a 100% fish storm.

[jmyrlefuller]

Fernand has developed. Way out in the Atlantic, no threat to land.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents

[jmyrlefuller]

Right now we have two hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific.

Kiko has its own thread given that its current track has it impacting Hawaii.

Lorena is off the west coast of Baja. It is expected to turn inland into the Gulf of California and slowly track north, potentially eventually impacting parts of Arizona and New Mexico, but I suspect it will weaken a great deal by then.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?start#contents

[catfish1957]

Right now we have two hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific.

Kiko has its own thread given that its current track has it impacting Hawaii.

Lorena is off the west coast of Baja. It is expected to turn inland into the Gulf of California and slowly track north, potentially eventually impacting parts of Arizona and New Mexico, but I suspect it will weaken a great deal by then.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?start#contents

GPS model which has done fairly well the past 2 years has a substantial storm (934 mb-Cat 4-ish) approaching the SE Coast near September 18th. near the Carolina borders,  working, working North, then Northeast through the mid Atlantic states

Gulf of America, shows to be continued unusually quiet for an Aug- mid Sept hurricane run.

[catfish1957]

The next few days are what is peak hurricane season.  Unusually quiet right now.  Strange to see not one point of interest at this time of the year in the Atlantic Basin.

Looking at this morning GPS run for the 15 day period, here are the highlights,  And please remember these are JUST Model runs.

1. During the period starting about the 14th, GPS has a low forming off the NC/SC coast.  It develops into a 1005mb Depression, before rapidly dissipating Near the NC/SC border and inland. 
 
2. During the period starting about the 16th, the model wants to kick up a low off the Yucatan,  this thing develops, and follows a northward path toward the AL/MS/FL confluence.  At landfall, (Sept 19)  they are showing strength as a 992Mb mid Cat 1 at worst.  What might be a larger story, if this scenario pans out, is this Low will only move about 400 miles in 3 days.  Flooding in MO, TN MS, KY, AL may become an issue, as the remnant low stalls in the SE MO area.

3. My skeptical take though is at, I just don't see the Cape Verde season being this quiet this time of the year.  Again, these things are really only good for trends, and no specific imminent or even potential threat. 

[Wingnut]

In one of the most enjoyable internet events, the local FL meteorologists are taking a good ribbing over "The Hurricane that wasn't"

Last week they were hyping the "spagetti"models for what was sure to be Hurricane  "Gabriella" or something. Then suddenly it just up and disappeared overnight!  It was a mericle' is tell you.  It shriveled up and died like Joe Bidens brain.

[Cyber Liberty]

In one of the most enjoyable internet events, the local FL meteorologists are taking a good ribbing over "The Hurricane that wasn't"

Last week they were hyping the "spagetti"models for what was sure to be Hurricane  "Gabriella" or something. Then suddenly it just up and disappeared overnight!  It was a mericle' is tell you.  It shriveled up and died like Joe Bidens brain.

Gabrielle isn't even listed on Weather Underground now, so she's not even a sub-Tropical Storm anymore.  Lorraine in the Pacific could have delivered rain to Phoenix and Tucson but she veered West and out to sea, and Kiko took a more Northerly track and is missing Hawaii to the North.

[catfish1957]

This morning's GFS run only has one area of concern for the next 15 days.....

Model shows a low forming in the Bay of Campeche on the 24 Sep, threatening SW Louisiana or South Central Louisiana on the 26th as a Cat 3. @957Mb.
Even worse a blocking Hight at Lat 40 is looking like it might stall the system of Mississippi for 2-3 days afterwards.....

Cape Verde systems (per GFS) remains absent strangely.

[catfish1957]

Highlights of this morning's GFS run for the next 15 days....

Factoid:  No Major Hurricane eye (Cat 3-5) has hit the Texas Coast directly after September 30th, throughout 180 years of recorded data. 
Factoid 2:  Rita hit 20 years ago today. 

* Sept 28th- 30th-  Cat 3-ish storm approaches SE FL coast, before curving towards Bermuda.
* October 4th-  Strong wave or depression forming off the SE LA coast, minimal impact (per model). 1035 MB High in SE USA surpasses CONUS impacts.
* 930-940Mb Cat 4 appears in the Caribbean about October 6th-7th , curving north, and then north east into the SW FL coast (per model) about October 8th as Cat 4. 

But don't forget....  This is just model data, and these runs can change drastically day to day.  I have found them pretty useless for specific locations and conditions, but they are good for trends and where most tropical activity might be expected.

[jmyrlefuller]

The lack of tropical activity actually reaching land is getting rather irritating. Things are getting parched where I'm at and some leftover tropical moisture is just what's needed to fix that, but it all keeps getting steered away in the Atlantic.

[libertybele]

The lack of tropical activity actually reaching land is getting rather irritating. Things are getting parched where I'm at and some leftover tropical moisture is just what's needed to fix that, but it all keeps getting steered away in the Atlantic.

Sorry  but better than a major  hurricane like Ian and Helene which  took hundreds of lives with people still recovering from massive destruction.

Maybe put in a sprinkler system.

[catfish1957]

Near Perfect Storm setting up in the Caribbean. 

Not out of realm for Jamaica to see 72-84 hours of Cat 3 or better winds, and historic rains of 30-60 inches.  Hopefully these forecasts change, or we will be seeing terrible news by late next week.

[libertybele]

I keep praying for the people in Jamaica and Haiti, but especially Jamaica -- they are going to get completely devastated as slow as this hurricane is moving.  The slower this cane moves the more rain and likely being battered by continual wind.

[Wingnut]

I keep praying for the people in Jamaica and Haiti, but especially Jamaica -- they are going to get completely devastated as slow as this hurricane is moving.  The slower this cane moves the more rain and likely being battered by continual wind.

Better them than us.  We needed a year off.

[libertybele]

Better them than us.  We needed a year off.

That's one way to look at it and yes we needed a year off.  I'm predicting that we are now in a cycle that FL won't be hurricane central  for several years.

I doubt that Jamaica or Haiti has the infrastructure or buildings that are built to the codes and standards that we have here in FL.  Continual rain and wind pounding either country will likely result in a high loss of life.  Other than flying out of Jamaica or Haiti to another country, where are these people going to flee to?

[jmyrlefuller]

That's one way to look at it and yes we needed a year off.  I'm predicting that we are now in a cycle that FL won't be hurricane central  for several years.

I doubt that Jamaica or Haiti has the infrastructure or buildings that are built to the codes and standards that we have here in FL.  Continual rain and wind pounding either country will likely result in a high loss of life.  Other than flying out of Jamaica or Haiti to another country, where are these people going to flee to?

Haiti has NEVER had that kind of infrastructure. It is a backwater completely resistant to any sort of development. There will be nothing left to rebuild when the hurricane hits anyway, but you can bet there'll be tons of missionaries raising money to dump into the pit that is Haiti.

[libertybele]

Melissa is projected to be a very slow moving Cat 4 hurricane, possibly a Cat 5 pounding Jamaica. Storm surge is a serious concern. There is some higher ground in Jamaica -  Blue Mountain Peak, which stands at (7,402) feet) above sea level. Hopefully they will keep the park open and have many busses or other modes of transportation evacuating to safety.  Doubtful that there will be any food or water, but people could pack as much as possible in preparation.

Prayers up for those in Jamaica and all those in Melissa's path.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10/26/weather/tropical-storm-melissa-hurricane

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountain_Peak

[libertybele]

Unbelievable and pretty much odds of surviving a storm of this strength is minimal.

"The Air Force Hurricane Hunters out there were flying through the storm, along with the NOAA P-3," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "The fact that the P-3 had such violence, turbulence, in the southwestern eye wall that they departed the storm. They usually do that just to be sure that there's nothing wrong with the aircraft."

As of the latest information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Melissa now has maximum sustained winds of 175 mph with some higher gusts, and some fluctuations in strength are likely as the storm slams Jamaica with a deadly storm surge, life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, and destructive winds.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/hurricane-melissa-jamaica-haiti-cuba-dominican-republic-caribbean-atlantic

[cato potatoe]

Melissa's eyewall is coming ashore with 185mph winds and central pressure of 892mb.  I believe that would tie the 1935 Labor Day hurricane for strongest landfalling storm in the Atlantic. 

[GtHawk]

Haiti has NEVER had that kind of infrastructure. It is a backwater completely resistant to any sort of development. There will be nothing left to rebuild when the hurricane hits anyway, but you can bet there'll be tons of missionaries raising money to dump into the pit that is Haiti.

Paging Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea Clinton o the Haiti graft phone.

[catfish1957]

Wow...

This is a rare event.   A couple of key points on my review:

1.  Earlier the '35 Labor Day Storm was mentioned.  Biggest difference is that Melissa is getting ready to slam into a 5,000-7,000 mountain range.  With this level of orographic lift, that 185 might end up way understated.  I think me might see flooding not encountered in centuries. 

2.  Tiny tad of good news.  Melissa has shifted slightly west of original predicted path.  This might me that the Island (east side) will avoid total devastation, 

3.  Good news Part 2...   Biggest population centers are on the East Side of the Island, including Kingston

4.  892mB and 185 mph winds?  This not only be a story for Jamaica, but just wait until it gets into the shallow waters of Cuba and Bahama. 

5. This was a spectacular photo,..,.,   Enjoy the horrifying, but beautiful aspects of this phenomenon,

https://twitter.com/ExxAlerts/status/1983009576719954309

[catfish1957]

Very rarely will you see the NHC issue updates with this level of foreboding.....


000
WTNT63 KNHC 281558
TCUAT3
 
Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...MELISSA'S EYE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
...STAY IN YOUR SHELTER...
...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC), or as
needed for landfall.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Cyber Liberty]

The monster storm is moving pretty slowly! 

[cato potatoe]

I visited Jamaica once and recall the poverty of the interior region.  People live in dilapidated shacks or cinderblock houses with no hurricane straps.  The weather people tend to overdo their alarm when storms hit the US, as the vast majority of damage is water related, but structural failure will be a major problem in Jamaica.

[rustynail]

Will the Jamaican 'climate refugees' be welcomed into the U.S.?

[Cyber Liberty]

I visited Jamaica once and recall the poverty of the interior region.  People live in dilapidated shacks or cinderblock houses with no hurricane straps.  The weather people tend to overdo their alarm when storms hit the US, as the vast majority of damage is water related, but structural failure will be a major problem in Jamaica.

Sustained winds are 185 MPH, and they will increase as the monster storm starts working its way up the mountains.  Unbelievable!  Plus, rainfall is expected to be over four feet in those hills!  Glad I'm not there....

[Cyber Liberty]

Will the Jamaican 'climate refugees' be welcomed into the U.S.?

Probably. Golden opportunity for Clinton charities.

[libertybele]

Sustained winds are 185 MPH, and they will increase as the monster storm starts working its way up the mountains.  Unbelievable!  Plus, rainfall is expected to be over four feet in those hills!  Glad I'm not there....

Sustained winds of over 185 mph is unfathomable.   I was thinking that a lot of people could escape the water up the mountains, but that will not help them obviously because of the increase in winds.  They need caves that are higher up and I have no idea if there are any in the mountains.

I imagine that the death toll will be significant.