2025 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

Placeholder for tropical discussion for '25.

Saw this morning that a High End Cat 3 storm (Erick)  just hit the west coast of Mexico with 125 mph winds.  I know it's extremely early but based on ENSO trends, typically tropical activity favors one or the other in EPAC (East Pacific basin) vs. Atlantic basin.  That's not cast in stone, and these things often change mid season.  But one positive bit of news for our neighborhood, at least early on.

In our neighborhood?  We are right in the middle of a very significant NW to SE winds upper and mid level air flows in the Gulf of America through the eastern Caribbean.  No chance of even creating some organized convection.  But, let's enjoy the quiet while we can

[catfish1957]

22-Jun-2025 update

Still calm in the Atlantic Basin.  Gulf of America is beautifully sprinkled by cumulus clouds.  Nothing near organized connection, or cloud cover for that matter.. East Coast...all clear, but this area isn't watched much at this time of the year.

The SW Caribbean OTOH, has flared up some strong convection, but a strong SW-NE shear axis isn't going to allow much organization.

[catfish1957]

Guess I've been snoozing, as I noticed this morning that the SC coast was getting TS force winds, and we now have the "C" Storm in the books,.  Chantal.

As far as other features, the ITCZ is relatively quiet.  (Not prime time yet), The GOA is seeing increases of overall convection, but a pretty decent overall N/S shear in the Gulf won't likely see much development.  July storms in the gulf are fairly uncommon, but not out of the question.'

An area to continue to watch is that almost ITCZ like frontal trough that lies eastward off the Carolinas at generally 35N.  I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two more spinoff systems, at that location in the next week or so.

[Cyber Liberty]