What do you think the final Electoral votes tally will be?

[corbe]

   What say you, Briefers.

[corbe]

   I'm cautiously optimistic  Trump +280

[bigheadfred]

Trump @290+

[libertybele]

Trump 300...provided we miraculously have a fair election.

[Lando Lincoln]

Terrific poll @corbe. I’m going with DJT @ 280+. I hope I’m wrong in a good way.

[Bigun]

I went with Trump 300+ but only if the cheating is tamped down a little this time.

[Cyber Liberty]

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I don't want to jinx it ya' know?

[Bigun]

I don't want to jinx it ya' know?

I started to add a similar statement to my above post.

[ScottinVA]

I was optimistic in 2022, but that “red wave” collapsed in a heap.  I simply hope and pray Trump somehow wins. 

[cato potatoe]

There has been too much hype in the right-wing media bubble.  Trumpers are going to expect 312+ EVs, and anything less will be blamed on widescale fraud.  Harris is a complete dud of a Vice President, and a weak candidate.  She still has loads of resources to focus on swing states, and could very well squeak out a win there.  A tied popular vote would tend to favor Trump in the electoral college.  However, most of the movement in his direction has taken place in the sun belt, and he can’t get to 270 with that.  So I really will not be surprised by anything other than a conclusive result by Friday. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

Fake electors, discounted electors, uncertified electors, decertified electors, etc.

MAGA plan is to get the Election thrown into the US House of Reps to decide.

[Bigun]

There has been too much hype in the right-wing media bubble.  Trumpers are going to expect 312+ EVs, and anything less will be blamed on widescale fraud.  Harris is a complete dud of a Vice President, and a weak candidate.  She still has loads of resources to focus on swing states, and could very well squeak out a win there.  A tied popular vote would tend to favor Trump in the electoral college.  However, most of the movement in his direction has taken place in the sun belt, and he can’t get to 270 with that.  So I really will not be surprised by anything other than a conclusive result by Friday.

LOL! According to you all this fraud talk is all smoke and no fire even in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

[cato potatoe]

LOL! According to you all this fraud talk is all smoke and no fire even in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

If you want to find a conspiracy behind everything you don’t like, I’m not going to talk you out of it.  Most Americans disagree with my views on the size of government, and are just as likely as not to elect Kamala Harris, even when offered the alternative NYC Republican.  That’s just the way it is.

[Bigun]

If you want to find a conspiracy behind everything you don’t like, I’m not going to talk you out of it.  Most Americans disagree with my views on the size of government, and are just as likely as not to elect Kamala Harris, even when offered the alternative NYC Republican.  That’s just the way it is.

Yes! I agree completely! But nothing you said there addresses the wholesale cheating that has become rampant in recent years.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Fake electors, discounted electors, uncertified electors, decertified electors, etc.

MAGA plan is to get the Election thrown into the US House of Reps to decide.

That strategy really won't work if Jeffries is sworn in as Speaker on Jan 3, will it?

[Smokin Joe]

There has been too much hype in the right-wing media bubble.  Trumpers are going to expect 312+ EVs, and anything less will be blamed on widescale fraud.  Harris is a complete dud of a Vice President, and a weak candidate.  She still has loads of resources to focus on swing states, and could very well squeak out a win there.  A tied popular vote would tend to favor Trump in the electoral college.  However, most of the movement in his direction has taken place in the sun belt, and he can’t get to 270 with that.  So I really will not be surprised by anything other than a conclusive result by Friday.

The Democrats have done nothing to dispel accounts of widescale fraud, besides simply deny or ignore it. You would think they'd at least try to give the impression of fair and honest elections this time but already we have accounts of critical irregularities all over the country, especially in 'battleground' states. Their TDS has blinded them to what they are doing to our nation, elections, and rule of law. They should be trying to be as pure as Ceasar's wife (beyond suspicion) but instead are being blatant.

Everything depends on how much cheating goes on.

[Timber Rattler]

Based on what I'm seeing and "feeling" right now in south central Pennsylvania, I say Trump 312 to Harris 223.  I think he's ahead in all of the swing states but the polls are once again warped by supporters refusing to answer the phone or participate.

Trump has reason in Pennsylvania to feel better than Harris

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/3213074/trump-has-reason-in-pennsylvania-feel-better-than-harris/#google_vignette


Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

https://nypost.com/2024/11/01/us-news/election-guru-nate-silver-accuses-pollsters-of-putting-finger-on-the-scale-lying-to-keep-presidential-race-close/

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I think we need to keep our eye on the House seats as IMHO the Dems are doing a rope-a-dope on Republicans as eyes on Trump/Harris are distracting them from ensuring we retain the House.

If Jan 6 rolls around and Jeffries is the Speaker, it could be the President of the Senate Harris refuses to certify the electoral college votes and turns the election of the President over to the House.

With each state getting one vote for President, I wonder how that vote would tally up for President?

Any ideas?

[Bigun]

I think we need to keep our eye on the House seats as IMHO the Dems are doing a rope-a-dope on Republicans as eyes on Trump/Harris are distracting them from ensuring we retain the House.

If Jan 6 rolls around and Jeffries is the Speaker, it could be the President of the Senate Harris refuses to certify the electoral college votes and turns the election of the President over to the House.

With each state getting one vote for President, I wonder how that vote would tally up for President?

Any ideas?

I do not believe that scenario would favor the Democrats as there are more Republican states in the legislature and each state would only get one vote.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I do not believe that scenario would favor the Democrats as there are more Republican states in the legislature and each state would only get one vote.

That is certainly the case now, but could some of these states flip during this election?

And if the election goes to the House to decide, why is the legislature involved?

The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted. The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President. But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote; A quorum for this Purpose shall consist of a Member or Members from two thirds of the States, and a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice. In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the Vice President.

[Bigun]

That is certainly the case now, but could some of these states flip during this election?

And if the election goes to the House to decide, why is the legislature involved?

The full legislature would not be involved. Only the House and having a numerical majority there does not equal a state by state majority. I doubt seriously that the Dims would have more states represented even if they somehow do manage to flip a few seats.

[catfish1957]

Dims have perfected the steal.  And after I saw all the Twitter posts last night, whrere machines are changing Trump votes, and / or not letting people vote for him at all? 

I went with Kamel-uh 270-280....   for the steal. 

Our only hope for a road block will be a GOP senate, which I am pretty sure will happen.

p.s.  So not to forget how this went down 4 years ago, it might be helpful to re-review our '20 Election thread.

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,418946.700.html

[IsailedawayfromFR]

The full legislature would not be involved. Only the House and having a numerical majority there does not equal a state by state majority. I doubt seriously that the Dims would have more states represented even if they somehow do manage to flip a few seats.

Guess I do not understand how one vote for each state gets decided in the House then.

[catfish1957]

Man, do I ever hope i have to eat crow, but so many wheels are in motion that are fishy as hell.   I just can't shake this bad feeling.

[Bigun]

Man, do I ever hope i have to eat crow, but so many wheels are in motion that are fishy as hell.   I just can't shake this bad feeling.

I've had it for months but mine is about what happens after Trump wins not before. I pray every day that my gut doesn't know what it's talking about. @catfish1957

[the OlLine Rebel]

I was optimistic in 2022, but that “red wave” collapsed in a heap.  I simply hope and pray Trump somehow wins.

You have a head on your shoulders!   

[Lando Lincoln]

Dims have perfected the steal.  And after I saw all the Twitter posts last night, whrere machines are changing Trump votes, and / or not letting people vote for him at all? 

I went with Kamel-uh 270-280....   for the steal. 

Our only hope for a road block will be a GOP senate, which I am pretty sure will happen.

p.s.  So not to forget how this went down 4 years ago, it might be helpful to re-review our '20 Election thread.

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,418946.700.html

Man, I just re-read a couple pages from that link and that horrible sinking feeling resurfaced. I vividly remember those pages and posts, including my own. Good Lord, please protect us from a repeat.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Man, do I ever hope i have to eat crow, but so many wheels are in motion that are fishy as hell.   I just can't shake this bad feeling.

Remember Plan B and C
https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,418946.msg2321959.html#msg2321959

[catfish1957]

bump

[corbe]

                   Trump 280+ is leading


 

                  I've been lied to before.

[banddag]

Met with our financial advisor a few days ago. He is 100% for Trump

He has lost count how many of his conservative retired clients told him the are voting for kamala because they love their Harris stock market returns and feel Trump is going to bugger it up especially since Musk is saying the stock market and economy is going to collapse under trump initially , we will have some pain but it will eventually get better. People vote for their pocketbook first no matter what their political stance may be.

I know this is ancedontal and does not mean  hill of beans but since I have publically turned from Trump on Facebook, numerous conservative friends and aquintances have told me in confidence they are voting for Kamala

[corbe]

[Lando Lincoln]

Met with our financial advisor a few days ago. He is 100% for Trump

I know this is ancedontal and does not mean  hill of beans but since I have publically turned from Trump on Facebook, numerous conservative friends and aquintances have told me in confidence they are voting for Kamala

Anecdotal for sure but thanks for sharing.

[jafo2010]

libertybele...

Trump 300...provided we miraculously have a fair election.

I like you remain hopeful, I project Trump 280+.

But get real, there will NOT BE A FAIR ELECTION.  There is already evidence, hard evidence the Democommies are cheating.

Trump needs to get 1 million+ votes in Pennsylvania alone to tie Harris.  I am 100% certain they have prepared 1 million phony ballots to flood PA with.  And if not mistaken, the Supreme Court of PA has given approval to submit ballots beyond the original deadline, just in case they need more than the 1 million phony ballots.

PENNSYLVANIA IS THE MOST CORRUPT STATE IN THE UNION, WITH ITS TWO MAJOR CITIES EXCLUSIVELY DEMOCOMMIE.  To refresh your memory, they pushed poll watchers 75 yards away from the action at the Philly mega counting center, then put up poster board to prevent watching in total.  EVERY VOTE IN THAT CENTER SHOULD HAVE BEEN RENDERED NULL AND VOID.  But that will not happen with the totally corrupt court in Pennsylvania, controlled by Democommies.  Not then, and not this week!!!

[Timber Rattler]

Met with our financial advisor a few days ago. He is 100% for Trump

He has lost count how many of his conservative retired clients told him the are voting for kamala because they love their Harris stock market returns and feel Trump is going to bugger it up especially since Musk is saying the stock market and economy is going to collapse under trump initially , we will have some pain but it will eventually get better. People vote for their pocketbook first no matter what their political stance may be.

I know this is ancedontal and does not mean  hill of beans but since I have publically turned from Trump on Facebook, numerous conservative friends and aquintances have told me in confidence they are voting for Kamala

I'm going to call BS on that.

 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I'm going to call BS on that.

 

And to there being a whole lot of closet Kamala supporters.

[libertybele]

I'm going to call BS on that.

 

   How absurd; to vote for someone who has tanked the economy, caused inflation, spiked oil prices, has us doling out $$ for wars and they're voting for her because stocks are up??  Got it.l

[jafo2010]

I believe in Harry Dent's formula of predicting markets long term, that it is tied to birth rate and one reaching maximum consumption age at age 46.  Currently, we are in the middle of a period exactly like what took place in the 2nd half of the 90s.  Our market is supposed to experience an exact track as the 2nd half of the 90s.

The POTUS does little to make that happen, if they stay out of the way.  Harris however, will take steps that will in fact destabilize the market, sending it to crash.  Trump on the other hand will be implementing actions that will stabilize many things, thus causing the market to skyrocket.

The market does well with stability, and just the opposite with instability.

Dent predicted the market in the 00 years would climb to 40,000, from 11,000.  It didn't.  Why?  Because a number of factors that completely destabilized the markets, starting with 9/11, the revelation of fraud in the market, i.e. Enron, Arthur Anderson, WorldCom, later Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns, etc, and last but certainly not least, the idiocy of Bush with his TERRORIST THREAT RATING, published each day through the decade.  How many days weren't orange or red?  NOT MANY!!!!!  That stupid Terrorist Threat Rating published each day played a greater role at leaving the market unstable than anything.  You can thank George Bush for that.

Timber Rattler, believe me, if Harris is POTUS, her spending alone will drive inflation up higher than when Biden was POTUS, we will see 1 or 2 more major wars that our military industrial machine will want to benefit from, and Americans will lose their jobs further with the influx of illegal invaders and the influx of legal H1-b Visa recipients largely from India.  More white collar workers will lose high paying jobs to low cost foreigners.  AND TRUMP SUPPORTS THIS FULLY!!!!

The USA citizen, white and blue collar alike, are bent over and being abused, and that will continue, regardless who is POTUS.  Americans will continue to feel like they are not represented.   But their lives will improve some with Trump, and continue to worsen with Harris.  You think life is tough now, just wait and see what happens with Harris as POTUS.  Carter or Biden on steroids!!!  All of that with the further weakening of the US dollar, the strengthening of BRICS, and nothing good is coming, believe me!!!

Anyone voting for Harris is an idiot!!!

[catfish1957]

Of course outside the "tie" this poll remarkedly close to a bell shaped curve.  Whcih is just another example why Briefers are the smartest and the best.  Thye've overall   prognosticated this thing to be  close as hell.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Met with our financial advisor a few days ago. He is 100% for Trump

He has lost count how many of his conservative retired clients told him the are voting for kamala because they love their Harris stock market returns and feel Trump is going to bugger it up especially since Musk is saying the stock market and economy is going to collapse under trump initially , we will have some pain but it will eventually get better. People vote for their pocketbook first no matter what their political stance may be.

I know this is ancedontal and does not mean  hill of beans but since I have publically turned from Trump on Facebook, numerous conservative friends and aquintances have told me in confidence they are voting for Kamala

Or your FA is just humoring you to keep you as a client?

[ScottinVA]

Harris with 280+ EVs.  She has all the momentum now.

[Hoodat]

Harris with 280+ EVs.  She has all the momentum now.

Trump's only strategy has been to win three States that were stolen from him in 2020 - Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania - and do so with the same Democrats in charge of those three States.

I can't see Trump winning if he loses PA, MI, and WI.  He could have won Virginia with Youngkin as his VP.  But he never once considered it.  His entire focus has been on those Northern States as if he has something to prove.  Just like Charlie Brown.

[banddag]

Or your FA is just humoring you to keep you as a client?

Na, we have also been friends for 30+ years.

[banddag]

  How absurd; to vote for someone who has tanked the economy, caused inflation, spiked oil prices, has us doling out $$ for wars and they're voting for her because stocks are up??  Got it.l

Most of my financial advisors clients are retired or near retirement. Inflation, gas prices, jobs do not affect them.  Most are well off.  People vote what is best for their own wallet. Elon Musk said trumps policies is going to tank Wall Street. Wall Street came out and said Harris will be better for Wall Street
 

We are a year or so away from  retirement.   We have been blessed with both of us having very high paying jobs, lots of savings and inflation has not been a concern for us.

Many people out there like us.

BTW inflation was caused a significant amount by the collapse of the supply chain. Neither trumps or bidens fault. Def of inflation what you learn in econ 101 in college is "Too few goods chased by too much money". That is why every country in the world had an inflation problem after covid.

Also Steve Mnuchen Trump Treasury Sec warned trump in 2018 he needed to push the fed to slowly raise interest rates or he was going to have an inflation problem in his second term. Trump refused. It's in Mnuchens book. The artificially low interest rates (cheap money) is what led to the huge rise in housing prices in 2019-2021 which also caused inflation

Trumps 8 trillion of spending and his 2.2 trillion dollar covid act also caused inflation.

See how much you learn when somone tells you the real truth from outside your echo chamber?

@libertybele

@Timber Rattler

[Bigun]

Most of the inflation we have seen over the last three years was caused by Joe Biden on his first day in office when he undid all of the Trump administration's energy policies and it affects everyone whether or not they realize it.

If your financial advisor tells you anything but that I would strongly suggest looking for a new one.

[catfish1957]

Let's not forget....   The last time MI, WI, and PA did not vote in perfect tandem was 1988.  That's 8 straight elections.

I see no reason why that pattern changes, and part of why my expectations have significantly tampered towards a Trump win.  Believe me, I will be happiest Briefer here to eat crow, but after hundreds of hours of researching,  I think with in an odds based prediction, I think it is 55/45 of a Harris win, with a Trump winning  the popular vote.

I also think the 0.8% lead in the total battle ground numbers is a sound number too.  Problem there is I see Trump winning the 4 Sun Belt states with a 1-3% margin, while Harris squeeks the 3 rust belt states out with a <1% lead.  That differential could easily play out to Harris' favor.  At this is exact moment, I still have it 270-268 Harris.  And the biggest finger being pointed at the Nebraska GOP for not legislating out their split EV system.

[banddag]

Most of the inflation we have seen over the last three years was caused by Joe Biden on his first day in office when he undid all of the Trump administration's energy policies and it affects everyone whether or not they realize it.

If your financial advisor tells you anything but that I would strongly suggest looking for a new one.

Why did every country in the world have an inflation problem after covid? Most much worse than the US.

@Bigun

[catfish1957]

Weather impacts.....

And one of the last usual controlling factor impacting turnout is weather.  This year, I pretty much see it as a non-factor.

The only inclement weather looks to be among a front stretching in a line from Texas to Michigan.  But, the overall expected precipitation is going to be light, so there shouldn't be any adverse impacts as far as voting.  There also looks to be some light snow expected in the Upper Rockies, but those folks expect that this time of the year.  No impact, plus no impact on any Swing States.

[catfish1957]

Na, we have also been friends for 30+ years.

Entrusting your portfolio to a personal friend?  I knew you were a dumbass, but that just proves you are at a higher level than I even thought.

And don't throw the CFP certification thing out either.  I have one, but that relationship is specific to  Dollars and Cents only, as it should be.    They can steal you just as blind, and you sure missed the lesson of letting friends and relatives manage your money.  But, I am not surprised.