Observations and comments on 11 AM advisory for Milton:
1. Really no change in path. NHC has strike cone from Fort Myers to Brooksville-Iverness coast area. Hurricane Warnings are posted from Bonita Beach to the mouth of Suwannee River
2. Sustained winds are up 5 to 150 MPH, and again approaching Cat 5.
3. We are now at the point where we are now counting lat/lon tics. Watching storm movement versus guidance is now the only way to isolate a spot of final hit. I will have to again hand it to the NHC and the GFS. The angular diversion of actual vs. expected position has been very close the past 3 days.
4. The drier air from the front has pretty much transversed the entire western GOM. I can see one decent tongue of dry atmosphere infiltrating the western side of the storm. And again, why we saw that drop in wind speed from 185 to 140 overnight. Remains to be seen if this same dry air mass will continue, as it seems the trough/front has stalled in the western GOM, and the soutward trending, has all but stopped. To get the visual of the dry air entrainment, look at water vapor graphic below...
5. There is large area of genreal low pressure off the east coast of FL/Bahamas. As Milton moves closer to FL, it will be interesting to see if this convection will evaporate, and create an expected area of subsidence, or whether it maintains and saps some hydrological fuel from Milton. The better option for the folks of FL, is for it to sustain
6. One bit of bad news, is that the storm itself has grown in diameter. Obviously the larger the wind field, the more area impacted... Both by wind and storm surge.
7. Overall sheer and water temps would normally give indication of some level of strengthening. But when storms get this large and powerful, they often operate outside the normal meterological and climatologcal norms. Think about it, gong from a Cat1 to 5 in 18 hours defies normal explanation. As does a 40 mph drop last night.
