Author Topic: Ukraine 5  (Read 402434 times)

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Online FtrPilot

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2400 on: March 15, 2025, 10:30:32 am »

Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2401 on: March 15, 2025, 10:30:33 am »
John Schindler: Putin’s Attack on Ukraine Is a Religious War
Russia’s aggression against its neighbor isn’t just power politics and geostrategy, it’s about core issues of faith and identity
https://topsecretumbra.substack.com/p/putins-attack-on-ukraine-is-a-religious
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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2402 on: March 15, 2025, 10:37:05 am »
The Russian language contains two different terms for lying. Vranyo is a form of institutionalized lying, which means that everybody knows that everybody is lying but they all go along with it. This form of lying is deeply entrenched in the Russian culture and within the military. All militaries are susceptible to a culture of lying but the Russian armed forces are more susceptible than their Western counterparts. This susceptibility results from a commander-centric approach to Russian military decision-making and force employment. These practices have contributed to the poor performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. Vranyo is a specific Russian phenomenon and there are wide interests to maintain this culture of lying instead of changing it.

[ Edit: this is why there are so many conflicting claims about who has taken what, why V. V. repeats the lies commanders report - specifically the lie about 2,000 Ukraine troops being encircled. ]

https://militairespectator.nl/artikelen/vranyo
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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2403 on: March 15, 2025, 11:11:40 am »

Russian President Putin Says They Will Spare Ukrainian Soldiers in Kursk if They Lay Down Their Arms and Surrender
March 14, 2025 | Sundance | 173 Comments
Why isn’t Volodymyr Zelenskyy the one asking for mercy?  That’s the larger, unspoken message from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Speaking directly to President Donald Trump’s request for Russia to spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers surrounded in the Kursk region, President Vladimir Putin says they will be spared if they lay down their arms and surrender.

Notice how Putin draws a distinction between President Trump and President Zelenskyy.

Putin says, “we are sympathetic to President Trump’s call to be guided by humanitarian considerations,” and then Putin shifts the emphasis on the absence of this plea from bloodthirsty Zelenskyy.  “There must be an appropriate order from the military and political leadership of Ukraine to its troops to lay down their arms and surrender,” Putin said.

more
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/03/14/russian-president-putin-says-they-will-spare-ukrainian-soldiers-in-kursk-if-they-lay-down-their-arms-and-surrender/
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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2404 on: March 15, 2025, 11:24:36 am »
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos

Ukrainians Strike Russia Deeper Than Ever!

Excerpts from the transcript
Mar 14, updates from the Russian Federation.

[ Drone & sabotage targets hit ]
drones successfully tracked and destroyed a Russian Strela-10 and an Osa short-range air defense system; 3 Buk-M2 systems were taken out in Zaporozhye; destroying 2 Tor-M2 air defense systems, one in Donetsk and one in Luhansk; destroyed a Russian Borisoglebsk electronic warfare system near Kherson; burning Russian 96L6E radar station of an S-300 and S-400 installation in Yevpatoria; set fire to an S-300 command post and radar station, disabling the long-range system; sabotaged 2 Zhitel electronic warfare systems in Voronezh;  a Russian training ground in Zalizny Port, Kherson, with cluster munitions, eliminating over 30 soldiers. Additionally, precision-guided GMLRS rockets targeted a training site in Zaporozhye, destroying dozens of Russian troops and armored vehicles; he Novoshakhtinsk refinery; the Ufa oil refinery, over 1,400 km from Ukraine;

Ukrainians ramped up their strikes on Crimea, using naval drones to deploy FPV kamikaze drones against Russian air defense systems, while also targeting systems with conventional FPV drones and even organizing massive sabotage operations within Russian territory. Ukrainian long-range drone strikes demonstrated the ability to hit any Russian targets west of the Urals, as Russia’s air defense network is already stretched thin and losing many systems to Ukrainian attacks and sabotage.

The Ukrainian Navy also announced plans for a 3rd strike on the Kerch bridge, forcing Russia to redeploy more of its already overextended air defense to Crimea, creating further gaps for Ukraine to exploit - whether Ukrainians actually launch the strike or not.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DvfCYe7TZw
« Last Edit: March 15, 2025, 11:25:26 am by BobfromWB »
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Offline MeganC

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2405 on: March 15, 2025, 11:26:59 am »
@MeganC
@FtrPilot

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2025
ISW has observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine. [ edit: they are in fact withdrawn from Kursk, except for volunteers that stayed behind to cover the withdrawal - their fate is unknown - they may be KIA, POW, or murdered. ]

US intelligence reportedly continues to assess that Putin is unwilling to end the war in Ukraine and remains committed to conquering Ukraine, which is consistent with ISW’s long-term assessment of Putin's objectives in Ukraine and unwillingness to negotiate in good faith. The Washington Post, citing unspecified people familiar with the matter, reported that classified US intelligence reports assess that Putin remains committed to his goal of dominating Ukraine, and reported that a US intelligence assessment dated March 6, 2025, concluded that Putin remains determined to “hold sway” over Ukraine.

Current and former US officials told the Washington Post that if Putin did agree to a temporary ceasefire, Russia would use the ceasefire to rest and refit Russian forces and that Putin would likely break the agreement and falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire. Four Western intelligence officials and two US congressional officials told NBC on February 18 that intelligence from the United States and US allies shows that Putin still aims to control all of Ukraine and that there is no intelligence suggesting that Putin is ready for a peace deal. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin maintains its long-standing goals in Ukraine, which amount to Ukraine's full capitulation, and the Kremlin has maintained its expansionist rhetoric despite recent talks with the Trump administration about peace in Ukraine.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2025

Thank you for posting this. Hopefully Russia's refusal to make any effort towards peace will make some of our Russophiles wake up to the reality that for Russia there cannot be peace, just victory or defeat.
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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2406 on: March 15, 2025, 11:32:27 am »
Russian President Putin Says They Will Spare Ukrainian Soldiers in Kursk if They Lay Down Their Arms and Surrender
March 14, 2025 | Sundance | 173 Comments
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/03/14/russian-president-putin-says-they-will-spare-ukrainian-soldiers-in-kursk-if-they-lay-down-their-arms-and-surrender/

This is an example of Vranyo [ formal lie ] used for political purposes which in this incidence is a total fabrication - likely V. V. Putin was told this Vranyo by V. V. Gerasimov who was told it by his generals in charge of Kursk, who was told the Vranyo made up by the commanders in Kursk to show their military acumen and success.
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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2407 on: March 15, 2025, 11:38:27 am »
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Offline MeganC

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2408 on: March 15, 2025, 11:39:35 am »
The Russian language contains two different terms for lying. Vranyo is a form of institutionalized lying, which means that everybody knows that everybody is lying but they all go along with it. This form of lying is deeply entrenched in the Russian culture and within the military. All militaries are susceptible to a culture of lying but the Russian armed forces are more susceptible than their Western counterparts. This susceptibility results from a commander-centric approach to Russian military decision-making and force employment. These practices have contributed to the poor performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. Vranyo is a specific Russian phenomenon and there are wide interests to maintain this culture of lying instead of changing it.

[ Edit: this is why there are so many conflicting claims about who has taken what, why V. V. repeats the lies commanders report - specifically the lie about 2,000 Ukraine troops being encircled. ]

https://militairespectator.nl/artikelen/vranyo

We saw vranyo in the USA every single time we were told that Joe Biden was competent and cognizant.
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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2409 on: March 16, 2025, 08:19:28 am »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2410 on: March 16, 2025, 09:38:37 am »
« Last Edit: March 16, 2025, 09:41:26 am by FtrPilot »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2411 on: March 16, 2025, 09:57:39 am »

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1901239787106734409

The shot @ 16 seconds shows a long range AAA shot with radar locked on.




Most likely a Flakpanzer Gepard SPAAG.

« Last Edit: March 16, 2025, 09:58:52 am by FtrPilot »

Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2412 on: March 16, 2025, 11:06:03 am »
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2025
The Kremlin is likely preparing to intensify a narrative that accuses Ukrainian forces of war crimes in Kursk Oblast in an attempt to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support for Ukraine, and spoil or delay straightforward discussions about the 30-day ceasefire that US President Donald Trump proposed to Putin. Russian President Vladimir Putin, other facets of the Russian government, Russian state media, and pro-Kremlin mouthpieces have recently intensified claims accusing Ukrainian forces of committing war crimes in Kursk Oblast during their seven-month incursion. Putin asked on March 13, in reaction to the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal, whether Russia should let Ukrainian forces leave Kursk Oblast “after they committed a lot of crimes against civilians” and reiterated claims on March 14 that Ukrainian forces committed “terrorism” in Kursk Oblast.

Putin likely intends to use this narrative falsely portraying Ukrainian forces as brutal war criminals - as the Kremlin did in late 2021 and 2022 to justify Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine - to spoil or delay discussions about a 30-day ceasefire, especially when contrasted with Putin’s efforts to portray himself as a merciful leader.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15-2025
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Offline BobfromWB

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2413 on: March 16, 2025, 11:06:57 am »


Artillery really takes a hit today with all the increased UKR drone activity.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2025, 11:08:49 am by BobfromWB »
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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2414 on: March 16, 2025, 06:18:18 pm »
Kremlin snuffbox [ well connected Russian Blogger in Russian ]
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5420

The Central Bank named “almost exact” dates for the completion of the SVO. And gave a forecast for the summer. The SVO will "almost certainly" end before the beginning of summer, several sources at the Central Bank believe. They conveyed this forecast to our channel. According to one of the interlocutors, there are as many as three reasons why this will most likely happen.

Firstly, the Central Bank notes: if the SVO does not end by the summer, at the latest in June, "our economy will experience a terrible crisis". "We have repeatedly warned about such a scenario (in particular, in comments to Tabakerka , - ed. [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5318 ]). Now the forecasts have worsened. Therefore, military actions must be ended", - emphasized the interlocutor close to Elvira Nabiullina. He did not specify what kind of crisis it would be, but noted that “serious problems could arise with food prices, the ruble exchange rate, and the sale of energy resources.”

Secondly, the Central Bank considers pressure from the Americans to be an important factor in the end of the SVO. "They can introduce sanctions that I am afraid to even talk about. I think Vladimir Vladimirovich understands all the threats," another source of the channel emphasized.

Thirdly, the interlocutors claim that they heard that they were preparing almost repressions against radical patriots, whom some call hawks. And who advocate for the continuation of the SVO until the complete Victory. It should be noted that such concerns were previously expressed in conversations with us by the patriots themselves [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5400 ]. Thus, a source in the Kremlin said that he does not rule out that he will be "cleaned up". What exactly he meant, the representative of the Presidential Administration did not specify. The Kremlin refused to comment on the words of the Central Bank representatives. And the military calls on us "not to listen to economists, financiers and not to believe any of their forecasts regarding the SVO."
« Last Edit: March 16, 2025, 06:19:13 pm by BobfromWB »
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Online bigheadfred

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2415 on: March 16, 2025, 06:29:17 pm »
Kremlin snuffbox [ well connected Russian Blogger in Russian ]
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5420

The Central Bank named “almost exact” dates for the completion of the SVO. And gave a forecast for the summer. The SVO will "almost certainly" end before the beginning of summer, several sources at the Central Bank believe. They conveyed this forecast to our channel. According to one of the interlocutors, there are as many as three reasons why this will most likely happen.

Firstly, the Central Bank notes: if the SVO does not end by the summer, at the latest in June, "our economy will experience a terrible crisis". "We have repeatedly warned about such a scenario (in particular, in comments to Tabakerka , - ed. [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5318 ]). Now the forecasts have worsened. Therefore, military actions must be ended", - emphasized the interlocutor close to Elvira Nabiullina. He did not specify what kind of crisis it would be, but noted that “serious problems could arise with food prices, the ruble exchange rate, and the sale of energy resources.”

Secondly, the Central Bank considers pressure from the Americans to be an important factor in the end of the SVO. "They can introduce sanctions that I am afraid to even talk about. I think Vladimir Vladimirovich understands all the threats," another source of the channel emphasized.

Thirdly, the interlocutors claim that they heard that they were preparing almost repressions against radical patriots, whom some call hawks. And who advocate for the continuation of the SVO until the complete Victory. It should be noted that such concerns were previously expressed in conversations with us by the patriots themselves [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5400 ]. Thus, a source in the Kremlin said that he does not rule out that he will be "cleaned up". What exactly he meant, the representative of the Presidential Administration did not specify. The Kremlin refused to comment on the words of the Central Bank representatives. And the military calls on us "not to listen to economists, financiers and not to believe any of their forecasts regarding the SVO."

Trump needs to lower the boom.
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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2416 on: March 17, 2025, 08:18:11 am »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2417 on: March 17, 2025, 08:28:14 am »
Trump needs to lower the boom.

Unfortunately, the Rouble has rallied about 15% after all time lows.  My guess is the prospect of peace, and that works in the Russians favor, at least short term.    So you are right, we need to do something economically to squeeze them into some concessions.  I stand by my suggestion I have given here a 100 times.   POTUS Trump needs to tell Putin, if you do not accept terms, I'll make it obsession to drive the price of oil to $40/bbl.

Watch what happens then.....
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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2418 on: March 17, 2025, 08:30:55 am »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2419 on: March 17, 2025, 08:36:10 am »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2420 on: March 17, 2025, 08:39:51 am »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2421 on: March 17, 2025, 08:50:21 am »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2422 on: March 17, 2025, 09:01:20 am »
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos

Excerpts from the transcript.


[ One Step Too Far! The West Makes a Crushing Response! ]

Today [ Mar 16, 8 pm ], Today, we will discuss the retaliation of the West to the Russian refusal of the proposed 30-day ceasefire. In a move that sent shockwaves through the Russian economy, the US has effectively imposed the toughest sanctions on Russia to date, without even announcing a new policy. Trump has put Russia under an unprecedented financial blockade by simply not prolonging a crucial general license, a key exemption that permitted energy transactions with Russian banks, and letting it just expire. This decision means that any country continuing to trade with Russia now risks secondary sanctions, cutting them off from the American economic system and global trade. The move is a clear escalation in Trump’s pressure campaign, designed to force Russia into peace negotiations over Ukraine.
 
By letting the sanctions exemption expire, Trump is sending a direct message to Putin: If Russia won’t negotiate, it will face increasing economic pain.  Unlike previous rounds of sanctions, this decision doesn’t just affect Russian entities; it now puts immense pressure on any country still buying Russian oil and gas, mainly targeting European nations, and also has a significant impact on China and India. The immediate effect of this move has been a near-total blockade of Russian financial institutions. Banks like Sberbank, VTB, and even the Russian Central Bank can no longer process international energy sales transactions. The Moscow Stock Exchange can also expect to suffer a hard hit, as foreign investors and businesses will rethink their investment plans.

European countries, which have relied on Russian energy despite ongoing sanctions, now face a difficult choice: either comply with restrictions and cut off Russian imports or risk being shut out of the American financial system. The decision is particularly painful for nations like Hungary, which still imports around 80% of its natural gas from Russia. Meanwhile, oil markets have already reacted, as uncertainty looms over whether major buyers like India and China will continue purchasing Russian crude. Without access to Western markets, Russia’s only option is to deepen its reliance on China and India. However, this dependency comes at a cost. Both Beijing and New Delhi have been purchasing Russian oil at steep discounts due to sanctions, and with fewer buyers available, they will likely demand even lower prices. This will further squeeze the Russian economy, which has already been struggling under the weight of Western restrictions.
 
If financial institutions in these countries hesitate to engage with Russia for fear of American repercussions, Moscow could struggle to even conduct trade with these formerly more friendly nations. With a shrinking war chest, Russia will struggle to sustain its operations at current levels. The cost of replacing lost equipment is skyrocketing, and sanctions on military technology imports mean Russia relies on outdated equipment and black-market purchases to keep up production numbers. Overall, it is evident that Trump is deeply dissatisfied with Russia’s response to his negotiation efforts. The refusal to consider a ceasefire, and the exclusion of Kellogg from talks appear to have triggered this latest escalation. By tightening the financial noose, Trump is making it clear that Russia has two choices: come to the table and negotiate or suffer even greater economic hardship.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jICVot8mwdc
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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2423 on: March 17, 2025, 09:18:46 am »

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Re: Ukraine 5
« Reply #2424 on: March 17, 2025, 09:28:41 am »