Author Topic: Hurricane Beryl Thread (Read 10289 times)

cato potatoe · « **Reply #25 on:** July 05, 2024, 08:53:49 pm »

Not sure what happens in the western gulf, but Texas can experience some drag-ass hurricanes.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #26 on:** July 06, 2024, 12:00:31 am »

Fri 10 PM update for Beryl. Weakening to T.S. strength, at least at the moment.

NHC has matched the clustered model profiles, and is prognisticating the center of the cone with landfall near Palacios. This is about 20 miles north of previous bullseye.

Cone now encompasses an area from Brownsville to Sabine Pass. And with the seemingly constant northward adjustments, I am guessing that Brownsville is near out of the woods..... As far as a direct hit. Problem is that the storm is beleived to start the northward curve fairly close t the Texas coast.

One added fly in the oinment is that an unusally strong front / trough is stretching from San Angelo to North Carolina. Looking at the storm, I am seeing significant northward shearing..... which might...repeat might mean an earlier than expected northward turn. After looiing at the sat data, I can't rule out impacts for NOLA and Mobile. A lot will depend on how much southwrd this trough gets toward the GOM. And believe it or not, the shear is so strong that some feeder bands are approaching the southern Louisiana coast. Hell this thing looks like it is going NNW in the last hour instead of WNW as the NHC states.

Even with this convection fracture, the circulation around Beryl still looks strong, though it has lost it's eye. And to add to the puzzle, I can almost see an northern component already on the water vapor sat. That said, I suggest anyone living west along the GOM say west of 90W needs to keep an eye on the Gulf this weekend. Good chance somewhere on the gulf coast early next week might be visited be visited by a Cat 1 or 2 storm.

Elderberry · « **Reply #27 on:** July 06, 2024, 07:36:27 am »

Beryl path if straight line @ 4AM 7/6

catfish1957 · « **Reply #28 on:** July 06, 2024, 08:36:41 am »

Not much change in the Saturday 7AM advisory. This is actually the first time in a number of days that I haven't seen a signifcant path shift. If this is the going trend, I am feeling more confident that E. Louisiana and NOLA are off the table. As with the steering currents, and the position of the two blocking Highs, I just don't see much of a chance of much eastward component before landfall. A hurricane watch has been hoisted from the TX/MX border to San Luis Pass (Near Houston)

The storm is still disjointed due to land interaction with the Yucatan. Hard to believe that this was a Cat 5 storm 4 days ago.

TX coast residents should take precautions (like we always do) for a Cat 1 or 2 storm.

Elderberry · « **Reply #29 on:** July 06, 2024, 08:40:04 am »

Beryl path if straight line @ 7AM 7/6

Elderberry · « **Reply #30 on:** July 06, 2024, 09:18:58 am »

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas

Current status: Beryl is centered in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is moving to the west-northwest. Wind shear, dry air and land interaction with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula have caused Beryl to become disorganized. However, the storm is predicted to intensify en route to the Texas coast Sunday into Monday.

Below is a look at the current location, information and satellite for Beryl based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Bigun · « **Reply #31 on:** July 06, 2024, 09:26:09 am »

Quote from: Elderberry on July 06, 2024, 08:40:04 am

Beryl path if straight line @ 7AM 7/6

There are no straight lines with gulf storms. As soon as the wind field starts to hit land there will be a Northward turn. This one is going somewhere near Corpus Christi. Which will put me on the dirty side all the way.

Elderberry · « **Reply #32 on:** July 06, 2024, 11:20:52 am »

Beryl 10AM 7/6

catfish1957 · « **Reply #33 on:** July 06, 2024, 11:22:33 am »

Quote from: Elderberry on July 06, 2024, 11:20:52 am

Beryl 10AM 7/6

More evidence that the NHC is not recognizing that this is more of a NNW bearing storm than WNW. Watch for the cone to relocated north and east..... again.

Elderberry · « **Reply #34 on:** July 06, 2024, 02:21:34 pm »

Beryl 1PM 7/6

Elderberry · « **Reply #35 on:** July 06, 2024, 05:17:24 pm »

Beryl 4PM Sat

catfish1957 · « **Reply #36 on:** July 06, 2024, 06:24:11 pm »

Models have done a nice job narrowing the cone towards the middle Texas Coast, at what appears to be a Cat 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Warnings have been posted, and if you are impacted, please prepare for a minor cane with bunches of rain.

We all know the drill.

jmyrlefuller · « **Reply #37 on:** July 06, 2024, 07:55:54 pm »

For the record, no, you can't just report hurricane paths any way you want. Even if you're the President.

Elderberry · « **Reply #38 on:** July 06, 2024, 08:21:40 pm »

Beryl 7PM Sat

Elderberry · « **Reply #39 on:** July 06, 2024, 11:09:19 pm »

Beryl 10PM Sat

AllThatJazzZ · « **Reply #40 on:** July 07, 2024, 08:18:45 am »

Quote from: catfish1957 on July 06, 2024, 06:24:11 pm

Models have done a nice job narrowing the cone towards the middle Texas Coast, at what appears to be a Cat 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Warnings have been posted, and if you are impacted, please prepare for a minor cane with bunches of rain.

We all know the drill.

I miss those early days when Beryl was going to make landfall in Northern Mexico. Try as I might, I can't stop insisting in my mind that the hurricane must obey those graphics on the TV. Even at my advanced age. Crazy, I know, but I can't shake the habit.

Elderberry · « **Reply #41 on:** July 07, 2024, 08:24:05 am »

Beryl 7AM Sun

Elderberry · « **Reply #42 on:** July 07, 2024, 09:30:57 am »

KHOU 11 7/7/2024

Video: Tracking Tropical Storm Beryl: Expected to strengthen into Cat. 1 hurricane ahead of landfall

Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Texas coast as a Cat. 1 hurricane sometime early Monday morning.

https://www.khou.com/video/weather/weather-impact/tracking-tropical-storm-beryl-expected-to-strengthen-into-cat-1-hurricane-ahead-of-landfall/285-59e96c5a-e26c-4459-a1bd-b2b9cb8f9294

catfish1957 · « **Reply #43 on:** July 07, 2024, 11:09:58 am »

Sunday 07 Jul 10 AM update....

Models have highly tightened, and it looks like a decent bet that Beryl reaches the Bay City area tomorrow morning. It is still a T.S., with 65 mph winds, but forecasted to be a Cat 1 storm at landfall.

But, when you look at all the sat data, if it does reach hurricane status, it should be on the low end. In fact, Beryl does not even have full concentric covection around his center. There is decent shear, with feeder bands not typical in configuation to a strengthening storm. The water vapor sat shows that if there is impact, this one will be one where the most likely be on the south end. An example? The center of Beryl if hits Bay City, will be closer to Lavaca, but there is a really good chance that Corpus could see worse weather. Plus, when these thing landfall, you never can guess their precipitation patterns.

We in Texas are well prepared for Cat 1. Let's hope this thing doesn't surprise us.

Elderberry · « **Reply #44 on:** July 07, 2024, 11:29:56 am »

Beryl 10AM Sun

Elderberry · « **Reply #45 on:** July 07, 2024, 12:40:50 pm »

We may be getting an outer, outer band. Wind at my house in SE Houston, via my anemometer, is currently up to 28 mph.

libertybele · « **Reply #46 on:** July 07, 2024, 02:18:30 pm »

Beryl's wrath to be felt as far north as Michigan, Ohio this week

While Beryl is expected to bring hurricane conditions to Texas on Monday, strong winds and rain from the cyclone will move into the Midwest by midweek.

Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are among the states that will feel the impact of Beryl.

Once Beryl hits Texas, the cyclone is expected to travel north throughout the South and Midwest.........

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/beryl-tropical-cyclone-midwest-michigan-ohio-indiana

libertybele · « **Reply #47 on:** July 07, 2024, 02:19:57 pm »

Beryl's outer bands begin lashing Texas ahead of landfall, Hurricane Warnings extended

"We are expecting a lot of that intensification to take place in the last, you know, 12 to 18 hours prior to landfall," National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather about Beryl as it nears Texas. "So people do need to prepare as if there is going to be a hurricane."

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas—Hurricane Warnings have been issued for Texas' Gulf Coast as Beryl continues its threatening march toward the Lone Star State. Landfall is forecast for Monday morning as the storm becomes better organized and is expected to intensify back into a hurricane on Sunday.

Impacts are already starting to be felt in Texas on Sunday as Beryl's outer bands are already lashing the state. Forecasters say that tornadoes will be possible as the cyclone moves inland, along with flooding rains, damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge all possible.

Numerous Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Texas Gulf Coast. A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions with sustained winds of 74 mph or greater are expected within the next 36 hours. Galveston is under a Hurricane Watch as Beryl barrels closer.

In addition to the damaging wind threat, a dangerous storm surge and a foot of rain or more are possible through the early half of the week.

libertybele · « **Reply #48 on:** July 07, 2024, 02:20:57 pm »

We all know too well, that wind is one thing and storm surge becomes an even bigger concern.

Elderberry · « **Reply #49 on:** July 07, 2024, 02:24:50 pm »

Beryl 1PM Sun