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Offline catfish1957

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Hurricane Beryl Thread
« on: June 29, 2024, 11:29:11 am »
Now we really have some tropical weather to discuss.....

T.S. Beryl rapidly formed, and right now is about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands.   Winds are now at 65 mph, and not only is this thing strengthening, its doing it quickly.  The NHC has it at a Cat 3 120 mph storm about Monday.  Not absolutely sure, but of this does happen (Jun 30/Jul 1), it might be the earliest Cape Verde Major Hurricane.  At least none come to mind. 

According to the NHC, Beryl's path will follow a pretty straight WNW path, through he Windwards, and then by Wednesday near Jamaica.  After that, anybody's guess is as good as the other.  The GFS picks up a 990Mb low near Corpus, on the 10th, so not sure these storms are related, or just another itineration of the same low.

In any case, plenty of time to watch, and if there is any danger, we'll be talking about it likely this time, next week.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2024, 08:25:20 pm by jmyrlefuller »
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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2024, 01:20:47 pm »
:bkmk:
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2024, 09:27:22 am »
Hurricane Beryl Map Tracker: Satellite, Spaghetti Models And More



https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-29-hurricane-beryl-tracker-maps
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2024, 09:45:22 am »
The angle if and when Beryl hits Yucatan will be (as almost always) will be critical to what impact we see in the western, northern GOM.
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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2024, 11:59:12 am »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2024, 03:38:37 pm »
Hurricane Beryl an 'extremely dangerous' Cat 4 storm as it roars toward Caribbean

Beryl − the first hurricane of the 2024 season − intensified Sunday into a high-octane Category 4 storm packing 130-mph winds as it barreled toward the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center said its reconnaissance aircraft found that Beryl, which was 310 miles east-southeast of Barbados on Sunday, is "now an extremely dangerous ... hurricane." Life-threatening winds and powerful storm surge were expected, and Beryl could delver a devastating strike on the Windward Islands early Monday, the center said.

Wind speeds on the islands could be up to 30% stronger on the tops and windward sides of hills and mountains, possibly even higher, the center said. "Catastrophic" wind damage was possible, the center said. St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada were most at risk................

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-beryl-updates-caribbean-preps-205134006.html
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2024, 06:57:52 pm »
Need continual rooting that the storm stays as far south as possible as it approaches Yucatan.  So far so good, but I am seeing wind profile axis' in the Western Caribbean, toward Yucatan starting to bend more SE->NW than E-W.  A whole lot can change in the next 7-10 days. 

For record, only 3 of the 20 or so, long range models thread the Yucatan Channel, so that is some early good news.   But stay tuned, it always changes.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2024, 07:27:42 am »
Hope you didn't blink, but Chris has come and gone with a flash, being a minimal tropical storm forming and going inland abut 400 miles south of Brownsville.  This particular area of the tropics has been very actve.

And to Beryl....  some slight weakening to Cat 3, and some short term good news too.  NHC track at this moment has shifted about 50 miles southward.  Estimated Yucatan land fall is expected Friday, but at near the Belize border.  Lot's will change between now and then, but the short term trending is good.

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Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2024, 07:34:35 am »
Quote from: libertybele on June 30, 2024, 03:38:37 pm
Hurricane Beryl an 'extremely dangerous' Cat 4 storm as it roars toward Caribbean

Beryl − the first hurricane of the 2024 season − intensified Sunday into a high-octane Category 4 storm packing 130-mph winds as it barreled toward the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center said its reconnaissance aircraft found that Beryl, which was 310 miles east-southeast of Barbados on Sunday, is "now an extremely dangerous ... hurricane." Life-threatening winds and powerful storm surge were expected, and Beryl could delver a devastating strike on the Windward Islands early Monday, the center said.

Wind speeds on the islands could be up to 30% stronger on the tops and windward sides of hills and mountains, possibly even higher, the center said. "Catastrophic" wind damage was possible, the center said. St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada were most at risk................

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-beryl-updates-caribbean-preps-205134006.html

Has your island recovered from the last Hurricane? My parents live on Ft. Myers Beach, they only got their elevator service restored in April.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2024, 11:09:13 am »
Some of the southern Windward Islands at this exact moment are seeing 140 mph winds and near 10 foot storm surge coming from a monster moving at 20 MPH. Cumulative storm speed plus this level of surge? 

Wow...
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Offline 240B

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2024, 09:52:03 pm »

Weather.com
By Tim Harris, Renee Straker and Jan Wesner Childs
4 hours ago
  • Hurricane Beryl made landfall Monday with winds up to 150 mph.
  • Grenada along with St. Vincent and the Grenadines took the brunt of Beryl's fury in the Windward Islands.
  • Damage in some areas was described as extreme.
(more)
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-07-01-hurricane-beryl-live-updates-for-windward-leeward-islands-caribbean
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2024, 09:57:36 pm »
Quote from: 240B on July 01, 2024, 09:52:03 pm
Weather.com
By Tim Harris, Renee Straker and Jan Wesner Childs
4 hours ago
  • Hurricane Beryl made landfall Monday with winds up to 150 mph.
  • Grenada along with St. Vincent and the Grenadines took the brunt of Beryl's fury in the Windward Islands.
  • Damage in some areas was described as extreme.
(more)
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-07-01-hurricane-beryl-live-updates-for-windward-leeward-islands-caribbean

Wow ... the video captured how powerful this hurricane was as it made landfall.   **nononono*
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Offline rangerrebew

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2024, 08:25:14 am »
As Hurricane Beryl Swirls, Media Push Climate-Fueled Nonsense
by CFACT  5 hours ago 

The press and some meteorologists are saying that climate change is “fueling” Hurricane Beryl. [some links added]

But, a close examination of the evidence suggests contrary to the hysteria, making a direct climate link is actually difficult.

https://climatechangedispatch.com/as-hurricane-beryl-swirls-media-push-climate-fueled-nonsense/
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Offline rangerrebew

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2024, 08:28:35 am »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2024, 01:41:55 am »
Brief Update-

Beryl has left PR with substantial damage, and next visit  will be the Yucatan.  And it will be expected as a Cat 1 or 2.  That weakening is the good news. 

The bad news its that it seems the track is shifting northward after every advisory.  The entire Texas coast , south of Lavaca is now in the cone.   I expect watches are going to be issued Friday or Saturday. 

The GOM is strangely cloud free, mostly from storm subsidence, but with low apparent sheer, the lack of strengthening in the Gulf seems odd.
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Offline rangerrebew

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2024, 06:34:25 am »
Was Beryl Only A Cat 4?
JULY 4, 2024
 
By Paul Homewood
 
We’ve now got more data in for Hurricane Beryl, and as we have seen many times recently, it appears that the wind speeds have been grossly overestimated.

According to the official reports, Beryl has sustained winds of 165mph (145kts), and a minimum central pressure of 934mb.

But according to the official satellite Dvorak measurements, the wind speeds were well below the warning intensity, around 135kts. On the Saffir Simpson scale, Cat 5s are 137kts and over, so it seems that Beryl was probably a top end Cat 4:
 

As usually happens nowadays, the National Hurricane Center tends to overestimate wind speeds, to be “on the safe side”. This may make sense from a public safety point of view, but unfortunately it is these warnings which appear in the media as “actual”.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/07/04/was-beryl-only-a-cat-4/
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Offline rangerrebew

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #16 on: July 05, 2024, 06:36:32 am »
At 6 PM yesterday according to the Weather Channel, it was only a Cat 1 and expected to be downgraded to a TS by this morning. 9999what
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2024, 12:04:33 pm »
Big heads up to TX/LA Briefers.   Models have trended Beryl significantly northward.  Cone now emcompasses the United States from TX/MX border to Cameron, Louisana. 

A couple of  my takeaways and observations.........

(1) Landfall, depending on how far the storm turns northward will be Monday (lower TX coast) to Wednesday (Upper TX Coast/LA).  The northward trend of this storm has been pretty consisitent.  Don't be surprise if Upper TX Coast and LA are in play, if this persists.

(2) Present consensus course (the line) is at about at Brownsville Monday morning, as a Cat 1 storm.  Given the significant size, I expect larger than normal storm surge for areas at landfall, and just northward.

(3) If the storm remains at sea in the western GOM, expect some strengthening based on water temps/shear/ atm conditions. Caveat...  See No. 6.  A lot will depend how the storm circumvents the tongue of dry air.

(4) Short Term satelitte imagery shows the Yucatan doing a nice job chopping Beryl up.  However, I am not pleased that the time over land is not as much as anticipated.  Strengthening is now more likely than I thought 24 hours ago.

(5) And the bigger story might be what happens after landfall.  Based on NHC forecasats this thing will be moving while inland <5 mph.  This might be a huge flood event for the eastern half of Texas

(6). One tiny bit of good news though.  About 100-150 miles west of Beryl, there is a strong  upper level low that is sucking in a pretty dry tongue of atmosphere into the path of the storm., creating about an 80 mile wide swath of very dry air being pulled from E-PAC (Eastern Pacific)
« Last Edit: July 05, 2024, 01:25:06 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2024, 12:53:54 pm »
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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2024, 12:59:16 pm »
   Beryl kinda looks like Harvey.

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2024, 01:41:17 pm »
That is a scary scenario.

The olde trusty GFS has Beryl as about a 990Mb (Cat 1-ish) at landfall
(1) aiming for  the Corpus area 07 July
(2)  dying as a closed low over the Dallas area on the 9th.
(3) Gets sucked up by a trough along the Ohio River basin the  10th-11th.
(4) Get ready for the possibility of 10-20" rain reports for TX, 5-10" points farther north and east.

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2024, 03:32:14 pm »
Latest model run ensemble.

Good consistnecy in tracking, except that the track keeps shifting north.

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2024, 06:49:21 pm »
Friday 4PM update....

Cone again shifts north and east.  Mexico now almost entirely out of cone.

Now?  50 miles south of Brownsville to New Iberia Louisiana. Strength forecasted at landfall....  90 mph (Cat 2)

Storm forecasted also to slow down to 3-5 mph off the Texas coast.   I could see some pretty big rain totals at present course from Lavaca to Tx/La border.

« Last Edit: July 05, 2024, 06:51:35 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #23 on: July 05, 2024, 06:55:55 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on July 05, 2024, 06:49:21 pm
Friday 4PM update....

Cone again shifts north and east.  Mexico now almost entirely out of cone.

Now?  50 miles south of Brownsville to New Iberia Louisiana. Strength forecasted at landfall....  90 mph (Cat 2)

Storm forecasted also to slow down to 3-5 mph off the Texas coast.   I could see some pretty big rain totals at present course from Lavaca to Tx/La border.

Certainly appears right now it will be a significant rainmaker.
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #24 on: July 05, 2024, 08:25:43 pm »
Hurricane Beryl discussion split into its own thread... for obvious reasons.
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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #25 on: July 05, 2024, 08:53:49 pm »
Not sure what happens in the western gulf, but Texas can experience some drag-ass hurricanes. 
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2024, 12:00:31 am »
Fri 10 PM update for Beryl. Weakening  to T.S. strength, at least at the moment.  :beer:

 NHC has matched the clustered model profiles, and is prognisticating the center of the cone with landfall near Palacios.  This is about 20 miles north of previous bullseye. 

Cone now encompasses an area from Brownsville to Sabine Pass.  And with the seemingly constant northward adjustments, I am guessing that Brownsville is near out of the woods.....   As far as a direct hit.  Problem is that the storm is beleived to start the northward curve fairly close t the Texas coast. 

One added fly in the oinment is that an unusally strong front / trough is stretching from San Angelo to North Carolina.  Looking at the storm, I am seeing significant northward shearing.....  which might...repeat might mean an earlier than expected northward turn.  After looiing at the sat data, I can't rule out impacts for NOLA and Mobile.  A lot will depend on how much southwrd this trough gets toward the GOM.  And believe it or not, the shear is so strong that some feeder bands are approaching the southern Louisiana coast.  Hell this thing looks like it is going NNW in the last hour instead of WNW as the NHC states.

Even with this convection fracture, the circulation around Beryl still looks strong, though it has lost it's eye.  And to add to the puzzle, I can almost see an northern component already on the water vapor sat.  That said, I suggest anyone living west along the GOM say west of 90W needs to keep an eye on the Gulf this weekend.  Good chance somewhere on the gulf coast early next week  might be visited  be visited by a Cat 1 or 2 storm.



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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2024, 07:36:27 am »
Beryl path if straight line @ 4AM 7/6
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #28 on: July 06, 2024, 08:36:41 am »
Not much change in the Saturday 7AM advisory.  This is actually the first time in a number of days that I haven't seen a signifcant path shift.  If this is the going trend, I am feeling more confident that E. Louisiana and NOLA are off the table.  As with the steering currents, and the position of the two blocking Highs, I just don't see much of a chance of much eastward component before landfall.  A hurricane watch has been hoisted from the TX/MX border to San Luis Pass (Near Houston)

The storm is still disjointed due to land interaction with the Yucatan.  Hard to believe that this was a Cat 5 storm 4 days ago.

TX coast residents should take precautions (like we always do) for a Cat 1 or 2 storm. 
« Last Edit: July 06, 2024, 08:46:12 am by catfish1957 »
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #29 on: July 06, 2024, 08:40:04 am »
Beryl path if straight line @ 7AM 7/6
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #30 on: July 06, 2024, 09:18:58 am »
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas

Current status: Beryl is centered in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is moving to the west-northwest. Wind shear, dry air and land interaction with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula have caused Beryl to become disorganized. However, the storm is predicted to intensify en route to the Texas coast Sunday into Monday.

B​elow is a look at the current location, information and satellite for Beryl based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #31 on: July 06, 2024, 09:26:09 am »
Quote from: Elderberry on July 06, 2024, 08:40:04 am
Beryl path if straight line @ 7AM 7/6

There are no straight lines with gulf storms. As soon as the wind field starts to hit land there will be a Northward turn. This one is going somewhere near Corpus Christi. Which will put me on the dirty side all the way.
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #32 on: July 06, 2024, 11:20:52 am »
Beryl 10AM 7/6

« Last Edit: July 06, 2024, 11:35:21 am by Elderberry »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #33 on: July 06, 2024, 11:22:33 am »
Quote from: Elderberry on July 06, 2024, 11:20:52 am
Beryl 10AM 7/6

More evidence that the NHC is not recognizing that this is more of a NNW bearing storm than WNW.  Watch for the cone to relocated north and east.....  again.
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #34 on: July 06, 2024, 02:21:34 pm »
Beryl 1PM 7/6
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #35 on: July 06, 2024, 05:17:24 pm »
Beryl 4PM Sat

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #36 on: July 06, 2024, 06:24:11 pm »
Models have done a nice job narrowing the cone towards the middle Texas Coast, at what appears to be a Cat 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Warnings have been posted, and if you are impacted, please prepare for a minor cane with bunches of rain.

We all know the drill.
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I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #37 on: July 06, 2024, 07:55:54 pm »
For the record, no, you can't just report hurricane paths any way you want. Even if you're the President.

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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #38 on: July 06, 2024, 08:21:40 pm »
Beryl 7PM Sat
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #39 on: July 06, 2024, 11:09:19 pm »
Beryl 10PM Sat
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Offline AllThatJazzZ

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #40 on: July 07, 2024, 08:18:45 am »
Quote from: catfish1957 on July 06, 2024, 06:24:11 pm
Models have done a nice job narrowing the cone towards the middle Texas Coast, at what appears to be a Cat 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Warnings have been posted, and if you are impacted, please prepare for a minor cane with bunches of rain.

We all know the drill.


I miss those early days when Beryl was going to make landfall in Northern Mexico. Try as I might, I can't stop insisting in my mind that the hurricane must obey those graphics on the TV. Even at my advanced age. Crazy, I know, but I can't shake the habit.  **nononono*
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #41 on: July 07, 2024, 08:24:05 am »
Beryl 7AM Sun
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #42 on: July 07, 2024, 09:30:57 am »
KHOU 11 7/7/2024 

Video: Tracking Tropical Storm Beryl: Expected to strengthen into Cat. 1 hurricane ahead of landfall

Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Texas coast as a Cat. 1 hurricane sometime early Monday morning.

https://www.khou.com/video/weather/weather-impact/tracking-tropical-storm-beryl-expected-to-strengthen-into-cat-1-hurricane-ahead-of-landfall/285-59e96c5a-e26c-4459-a1bd-b2b9cb8f9294

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #43 on: July 07, 2024, 11:09:58 am »
Sunday 07 Jul 10 AM update....

Models have highly tightened, and it looks like a decent bet that Beryl reaches the Bay City area tomorrow morning.  It is still a T.S., with 65 mph winds, but forecasted to be a Cat 1 storm at landfall.

But, when you look at all the sat data, if it does reach hurricane status, it should be on the low end.  In fact, Beryl does not even have full concentric covection around his center.  There is decent shear, with feeder bands not typical in configuation to a strengthening storm.  The water vapor sat shows that if there is impact, this one will be one where the most likely be on the south end.   An example?  The center of Beryl if hits Bay City, will be closer to Lavaca, but there is a really good chance that Corpus could see worse weather.  Plus, when these thing landfall, you never can guess their precipitation patterns.

We in Texas are well prepared for Cat 1. Let's hope this thing doesn't surprise us.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2024, 11:11:33 am by catfish1957 »
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I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #44 on: July 07, 2024, 11:29:56 am »
Beryl 10AM Sun
« Last Edit: July 07, 2024, 12:32:08 pm by Elderberry »
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #45 on: July 07, 2024, 12:40:50 pm »
We may be getting an outer, outer band. Wind at my house in SE Houston, via my anemometer, is currently up to 28 mph.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #46 on: July 07, 2024, 02:18:30 pm »
Beryl's wrath to be felt as far north as Michigan, Ohio this week

While Beryl is expected to bring hurricane conditions to Texas on Monday, strong winds and rain from the cyclone will move into the Midwest by midweek.

Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are among the states that will feel the impact of Beryl.

Once Beryl hits Texas, the cyclone is expected to travel north throughout the South and Midwest.........

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/beryl-tropical-cyclone-midwest-michigan-ohio-indiana
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #47 on: July 07, 2024, 02:19:57 pm »
 Beryl's outer bands begin lashing Texas ahead of landfall, Hurricane Warnings extended


"We are expecting a lot of that intensification to take place in the last, you know, 12 to 18 hours prior to landfall," National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather about Beryl as it nears Texas. "So people do need to prepare as if there is going to be a hurricane."

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas—Hurricane Warnings have been issued for Texas' Gulf Coast as Beryl continues its threatening march toward the Lone Star State. Landfall is forecast for Monday morning as the storm becomes better organized and is expected to intensify back into a hurricane on Sunday.

Impacts are already starting to be felt in Texas on Sunday as Beryl's outer bands are already lashing the state. Forecasters say that tornadoes will be possible as the cyclone moves inland, along with flooding rains, damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge all possible.

Numerous Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Texas Gulf Coast. A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions with sustained winds of 74 mph or greater are expected within the next 36 hours. Galveston is under a Hurricane Watch as Beryl barrels closer.

In addition to the damaging wind threat, a dangerous storm surge and a foot of rain or more are possible through the early half of the week.

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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #48 on: July 07, 2024, 02:20:57 pm »
We all know too well, that wind is one thing and storm surge becomes an even bigger concern.

« Last Edit: July 07, 2024, 02:21:55 pm by libertybele »
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Hurricane Beryl Thread
« Reply #49 on: July 07, 2024, 02:24:50 pm »
Beryl 1PM Sun
« Last Edit: July 07, 2024, 02:29:34 pm by Elderberry »
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