2024 Tropical Weather Discussion

[libertybele]

Tropical depression ‘could form,’ appears to resemble Helene’s path, NHC says

..............Over the next few days, gradual development of this potential disturbance is expected, and a tropical depression “could form” around the middle part of the week, NHC said on Sunday. As of the 6 p.m. update, it has a 50% chance of development over the next seven days.

“There are two other areas we are watching. One area of low pressure in the south-central Caribbean will slowly develop. This has a 50% chance of development in the next seven days, but models strengthen this slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression is expected to develop by the middle of next week. We will closely monitor this system, but it appears as though this will be a much weaker system,” Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Eric Stone said.

As it is forecasted to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center advises the U.S. Gulf Coast to “monitor its progress.”.......................




https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/tropical-depression-could-form-appears-to-resemble-helenes-path-nhc-says/

[cato potatoe]

A little tad of good news from the NHC today.  They have dropped the probablity of that pesky low (wave) in the Caribbean from developing from 80% to 50% in the next 5 days.  Though the GFS is still similarly still picking it up, but has moved the target more towards Pensacola instead of the FL/AL line.

I really don't see what could discourage strengthening, except that the path might be in the cool wake churned up by Helene last week.  NHC, has a lot more data than I have.  All the convection in the wave is moving very linear-ly, with no spin at at all.  That might be the rub where the storm reaches central america before having a chance to form a low.

I believe shear is becoming an issue for the systems as they emerge from the gyre and move into the gulf.  6z is throwing a couple of systems at Florida, but the tailwind rips them up.

[catfish1957]

I believe shear is becoming an issue for the systems as they emerge from the gyre and move into the gulf.  6z is throwing a couple of systems at Florida, but the tailwind rips them up.

Down to 40% this morning.  Most of the drop is due to this low is running out of real estate to develop.  The NHC nows has the general center of the wave not far off the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua.  And since waves without circulation seldom move any direction besides west, I think it's going to be a tropical rainmaker for Central America.....   Unless someting spins up pretty quick.

Secondly, the covection around the so called center is really pathethic.  In this morning's Sat loop, there is just one cluster of precipitation right off the coast.  In fact what is going on off the North Venezuela coast is more impressive.  Conversely, I am wondering if the wave has repositioned to the west.  There is almost a full spinning low, just south of Hispanola.  Not much convection with it, but the swirl is pretty impressive. But it is easily moving 25+ mph, and time/real estate again becomes an issue.

[libertybele]

HURRICANE CENTER: “Strong And Powerful Hurricane” Forming East Of Florida

I'm concerned ... storms are lined up -- some are fish storms but the remainder to me is concerning - one in the eastern atlantic and the one in the western carribean and gulf of mexico.



https://bocanewsnow.com/2024/09/30/hurricane-center-strong-and-powerful-hurricane-forming-east-of-florida/

[catfish1957]

Good News...

The tropical activity being discussed (91L?) previously has fizzled.  Today's GFS run calms down the tropics for the next 10 days, with the exception of it showing in about a week a upper 990-ish Depression forming in the central GOM, that moves inland around Tampa.  The same reoccurs a day 10.  Which from expeience means possibly some frontal troughs creating a very wet profile at about 27N eastward.

[catfish1957]

Alert to Florida Briefers.....

Watching the models, maps, and conditions, it looks like a pretty solid area of heavy precipitation will be happening within a week along 24-28N and 70-75W.  Low area, whether as a wave or depression is likely going to ride an upcoming front.  T.S. formation is possible, but as of today, I am betting against it.

I know that the entire SE has seen epic rains.  Not sure how another 5-10 inches will do along the Florida penninsula.

[libertybele]

Alert to Florida Briefers.....

Watching the models, maps, and conditions, it looks like a pretty solid area of heavy precipitation will be happening within a week along 24-28N and 70-75W.  Low area, whether as a wave or depression is likely going to ride an upcoming front.  T.S. formation is possible, but as of today, I am betting against it.

I know that the entire SE has seen epic rains.  Not sure how another 5-10 inches will do along the Florida penninsula.

This is not good.  We are already saturated and they have increased our expected accumulated rainfall to be over 7 inches. That's a lot of rain.  We are expecting rain starting on Sunday and into Wednesday and dissipating a bit with some drier air by Thursday (hopefully).

The NHC has increased chances of development from 30% to 40% with flooding. If this should become a tropical storm with any type of surge it's going to have a significant impact especially with the rainfall -- we'll see some major flooding.

Hurricane center again raises chance Gulf system will develop; rain coming to Florida regardless

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2024/10/03/hurricane-center-lowers-chance-gulf-system-will-develop-but-rain-coming-to-florida/

[catfish1957]

This is not good.  We are already saturated and they have increased our expected accumulated rainfall to be over 7 inches. That's a lot of rain.  We are expecting rain starting on Sunday and into Wednesday and dissipating a bit with some drier air by Thursday (hopefully).

The NHC has increased chances of development from 30% to 40% with flooding. If this should become a tropical storm with any type of surge it's going to have a significant impact especially with the rainfall -- we'll see some major flooding.

Hurricane center again raises chance Gulf system will develop; rain coming to Florida regardless

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2024/10/03/hurricane-center-lowers-chance-gulf-system-will-develop-but-rain-coming-to-florida/

The water vapor imagery is looking a lot more robust at and eastward from the western GOM trough/front.   I am especially watching the BOC (Bay of Campeche) area as the trough at that area is clustering nicely, though I am not seeing any swirling (yet) that would give any indication of a Low forming. 

The long range forecasts, show a tad of abatement of frontal activity in the near term that far south, so with these two factors, the chance of tropical development will remain decent until this makes it's move.

[libertybele]

I have listened to the weather service for this area and local news.  The weather service for the area shows possible tropical storm formation and possible hurricane (though unlikely) with 12 inches of rain from Sunday to Wednesday and local news shows possible tropical depression with up to 8 inches of rain.  (The storm is headed straight at us).

The only agreement right now as to what this storm is going to do is bringing a lot of rain and possible flooding. 

[catfish1957]

I have listened to the weather service for this area and local news.  The weather service for the area shows possible tropical storm formation and possible hurricane (though unlikely) with 12 inches of rain from Sunday to Wednesday and local news shows possible tropical depression with up to 8 inches of rain.  (The storm is headed straight at us).

The only agreement right now as to what this storm is going to do is bringing a lot of rain and possible flooding. 

I think the NHC is expecting some major upper air pattern changes as the latest GFS run is much different that yesterday.  The suspected low they are thinking is an area of concern that is broken convection, well make that broken cloud cover right  in the middle of a 1012Mb High ridge, in the western BOC.   I am also wondering if they are even considering the "wake" effect of a Cat 4 storm in the same vicinity about a week earlier.

Again....The GFS which has really changed since the last run has this as a 980Mb low approaching Tampa Wednesday 9 October.  That'd be a Cat 1 at worst.   Plus, the GFS has predicted storm direction and strength fantastically this year.  Very unlike 2022, and to a degree 2023.

[cato potatoe]

I think the NHC is expecting some major upper air pattern changes as the latest GFS run is much different that yesterday.  The suspected low they are thinking is an area of concern that is broken convection, well make that broken cloud cover right  in the middle of a 1012Mb High ridge, in the western BOC.   I am also wondering if they are even considering the "wake" effect of a Cat 4 storm in the same vicinity about a week earlier.

Again....The GFS which has really changed since the last run has this as a 980Mb low approaching Tampa Wednesday 9 October.  That'd be a Cat 1 at worst.   Plus, the GFS has predicted storm direction and strength fantastically this year.  Very unlike 2022, and to a degree 2023.

Supposedly, the shear doesn't really hammer a potential storm unless/until it approaches Tampa's latitude midweek.  Plus the gulf is warmer than usual, except for the cool wake that I am guessing has mixed out to some extent (it has been HOT and sunny for the past week).  Loop current is still a factor.

Somebody north of the center is going to see a lot of rain if the storm is sheared. 

[catfish1957]

Somebody north of the center is going to see a lot of rain if the storm is sheared.

Check out the latest Quantitative Precip forecast....  Outside a Cat 5 Cane situation, ever seen a 400 mile swath of 5"-15 inch rain?

[libertybele]

Supposedly, the shear doesn't really hammer a potential storm unless/until it approaches Tampa's latitude midweek.  Plus the gulf is warmer than usual, except for the cool wake that I am guessing has mixed out to some extent (it has been HOT and sunny for the past week).  Loop current is still a factor.

Somebody north of the center is going to see a lot of rain if the storm is sheared.

I see heavy rains from the Keys just up to about Tampa.  I don't see Tampa getting as

Supposedly, the shear doesn't really hammer a potential storm unless/until it approaches Tampa's latitude midweek.  Plus the gulf is warmer than usual, except for the cool wake that I am guessing has mixed out to some extent (it has been HOT and sunny for the past week).  Loop current is still a factor.

Somebody north of the center is going to see a lot of rain if the storm is sheared. 

A Cat1 with 15" of rain is concerning-- though I don't see Tampa being affected rather than from the Keys up to about the Tampa area with Tampa seeing minimal affect.

It looks like both the east coast and west cost of southern Florida are going to see a significant impact. 

[libertybele]

So, it looks like it's our turn in SWFL.  Local news is showing that the NHC has increased the odds of formation to 50% and the pressure has dropped indicating a potential hurricane around Wednesday, following a very rainy Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. 

[cato potatoe]

I see heavy rains from the Keys just up to about Tampa.  I don't see Tampa getting as
A Cat1 with 15" of rain is concerning-- though I don't see Tampa being affected rather than from the Keys up to about the Tampa area with Tampa seeing minimal affect. .

We should have an idea by Monday.  The system is still 1000 miles and four days out, so the models have a decent margin of error.  One of them actually brings it north of Tampa.

[mystery-ak]

Published October 5, 2024 10:58am EDT
Tropical Depression 14 forms in Gulf of Mexico, eyes Florida ahead of likely becoming Tropical Storm Milton
The forecast with TD14 has evolved quite a bit in the last 24 hours, showing greater potential to be a more significant storm. "I don't like the way this is developing at all, and it's going to happen pretty quickly," says FOX Weather Meteorologist Bryan Norcross.

By Scott Sistek

Bryan Norcross analyzes new development in Gulf of Mexico: 'I don't like the way this is developing at all'

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross says the development of Invest 92L in the Gulf of Mexico is going to happen quickly, likely by Wednesday of next week and will likely hit Florida. Oct. 5, 2024.

MIAMI — Tropical Depression Fourteen formed in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday, eventually eyeing Florida next week as a tropical storm or even possibly as a hurricane, with days of torrential rains and triggering a risk of flooding and gusty winds.

The forecast with TD14 has evolved quite a bit in the last 24 hours, showing greater potential to be a more significant storm.

"I don't like the way this is developing at all, and it's going to happen pretty quickly," says FOX Weather Meteorologist Bryan Norcross. "It just means the odds are significantly higher (Saturday) than they were (Friday) that a memorable, impactful storm is going to impact Florida in the days ahead."

more
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-depression-14-gulf-mexico-florida-milton

[libertybele]

I am frustrated.  Our local news has not said a word about a possible hurricane.  No where to evacuate all these people with the past storms causing flooding to would be my guess???

[mountaineer]

My sister and her husband were supposed to travel to Ft. Myers today, but they're postponed the trip because of reports the storm will hit the coast on Wednesday.

[Cyber Liberty]

TD14 is now a named storm, "Milton."

[libertybele]

My sister and her husband were supposed to travel to Ft. Myers today, but they're postponed the trip because of reports the storm will hit the coast on Wednesday.

I would definitely postpone.  Local news isn't yet projecting exactly where this is going but will encompass a large area from Tampa down to the Keys; possibly a hurricane Cat 2 and storm surge along the coast (sigh). It is moving quickly and we'll see a lot of rain.

We're having our hurricane shutters put up on Tues.  I think our Christmas present is going to be having rolldowns installed.  Getting too old to deal with putting up shutters. 

[mystery-ak]

Residents in Florida are preparing for the third hurricane strike of the season following landfalls of Debby in August and Helene in September.

Tropical Depression Fourteen quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton and will eventually become a hurricane over the coming days as it makes its trek towards the state’s west coast.

Cities such as Tampa, Fort Myers, Orlando and Jacksonville are all in the forecast cone.

Here’s the latest information on Milton in the Gulf of Mexico.

KNOW YOUR ZONE: FLORIDA EVACUATION MAP SHOWS WHO WILL HAVE TO LEAVE BEFORE A HURRICANE STRIKES







https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-milton-live-forecast-radar-spaghetti-models-satellite-alerts

[catfish1957]

Wow, this spin up into a T.S is about the quickest I've seen since Humberto in '07.  NHC has this as a High End Cat 2, approaching Tampa mid day Wednesday.  Folks, this is what I always like to warn about Tropical Season.  When the models almost become too-predictable, they throw a fast curve. 

Looking at the vis and water vapor loops, I am getting increasingly concerned around a terribly low shear in path.  Consideing only the eastern GOM has cooled/pooled Helena wake.  The synopsis and dynamics are changing rapidly. 

Spaghetti Models are terribly wide at this point (Appalacicola to Key West).  So, with this level of uncertainty, I'd advise the entire state of FL. (sigh!) go back on alert.  Because what bothers me, is that this thing given a High End Cat 2 status at inititalization often is under stated early on.  Not saying another Major Cane is in order (CAT 3,4,5) But I've seen this dozens of times, where a small diameter storm, like Milton so far.... turns into a small monster.

[libertybele]

Wow, this spin up into a T.S is about the quickest I've seen since Humberto in '07.  NHC has this as a High End Cat 2, approaching Tampa mid day Wednesday.  Folks, this is what I always like to warn about Tropical Season.  When the models almost become too-predictable, they throw a fast curve. 

Looking at the vis and water vapor loops, I am getting increasingly concerned around a terribly low shear in path.  Consideing only the eastern GOM has cooled/pooled Helena wake.  The synopsis and dynamics are changing rapidly. 

Spaghetti Models are terribly wide at this point (Appalacicola to Key West).  So, with this level of uncertainty, I'd advise the entire state of FL. (sigh!) go back on alert.  Because what bothers me, is that this thing given a High End Cat 2 status at inititalization often is under stated early on.  Not saying another Major Cane is in order (CAT 3,4,5) But I've seen this dozens of times, where a small diameter storm, like Milton so far.... turns into a small monster.

This one has me very concerned. Next NHC advisory is at 5:00.  I believe that they've flown the hurricane hunters in.

[libertybele]

5 pm local advisory in. Still not defining an area but this potentially will make landfall along the west coast as a major hurricane. Cat 3 (for now).

[cato potatoe]

5 pm local advisory in. Still not defining an area but this potentially will make landfall along the west coast as a major hurricane. Cat 3 (for now).

The storm gets pulled north if it is stronger.  If it's weak, it trends to the south side of the cone and somewhat later.