2023 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

Hard to believe but we are only a few weeks away from Hurricane Season. Want to set up a thread so I can share tropical weather updates that may impact coastal Briefers.  At least this year, we near the GOM are seeing a few degree temp anomaly, coupled with some wind vectoring (speed and direction) that might if the trend hold, give us an active early season, which normally for us is in June. 

I know we normally think of these these being their worst in August and September, but there have been major hurricanes like Audrey in 1957 have hit in June, and have killed 100's.

Looking at the visual sat runs this morning, and wow, the GOM looks like an organizing mid and upper level low right at 96W/27N.  No word yet of any development from the NHC, but I do know we are in for an extra we few days here. 



Not sure the trend will continue, but if we are seeing robust lows this early, it might be an interesting June.

[Cyber Liberty]

 

[libertybele]

Hard to believe but we are only a few weeks away from Hurricane Season. Want to set up a thread so I can share tropical weather updates that may impact coastal Briefers.  At least this year, we near the GOM are seeing a few degree temp anomaly, coupled with some wind vectoring (speed and direction) that might if the trend hold, give us an active early season, which normally for us is in June. 

I know we normally think of these these being their worst in August and September, but there have been major hurricanes like Audrey in 1957 have hit in June, and have killed 100's.

Looking at the visual sat runs this morning, and wow, the GOM looks like an organizing mid and upper level low right at 96W/27N.  No word yet of any development from the NHC, but I do know we are in for an extra we few days here. 



Not sure the trend will continue, but if we are seeing robust lows this early, it might be an interesting June.

Lots of blue tarps still on roofs around here.  It's a mess, people are still waiting on insurance to handover $$ for claims and insurance companies are leaving and of course premiums are skyrocketing. Places are just starting to rebuild. Our area yacht club closed and they are rebuilding; it's going to be a year or so.  So, it is hard to believe that hurricane season is about a week away.

[catfish1957]

B and C Storms in the Caribbean and Atlantic right now (Brett and Cindy)

Neither at least at this juncture appear to be threats to the CONUS.  My fear though is that ATL activity this early in the season may mean an active August and September, as there are some pretty nice sized warmer than usual plumes in those locations and eastwards this early.

Also a TX and Northern GOM heat wave this early doesn't help.

[GtHawk]

I thought I saw reports that the Atlantic is seeing record heat(well record as far as we know) that is causing a higher risk of hurricanes earlier than normal.

[libertybele]

And here we go .... time to dodge or time to stay put? Too early to tell where this is going, but DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency.  Lots of homes around here with tarps still on the roof from Ian.  Insurance companies have dragged their feet and now we're under threat of a tropical storm or possible hurricane.  Tropical storms can bring some damage and flooding with it.  I was hoping for a very quiet season .... we are just about at the peak of the season.... months left to go.  Joy!

State of emergency declared for most of Florida’s Gulf Coast as tropical system approaches

As a tropical system continues to march toward Florida, with a high chance of becoming a depression or something stronger in the coming days, a state of emergency was declared Saturday for most counties on the Gulf Coast.

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order that declared the state of emergency for 33 counties, including Manatee, Hillsborough (where Tampa is) and Leon (where Tallahassee is). The order allows for emergency resources and preparation to move quicker and more freely.

“I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week,” DeSantis said in a statement. “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”

Heavy rainfall, strong winds and isolated tornado activity is what the governor’s office said it expects Florida’s west coast to see........

https://www.yahoo.com/news/state-emergency-declared-most-florida-175800601.html

[catfish1957]

And here we go .... time to dodge or time to stay put? Too early to tell where this is going, but DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency.  Lots of homes around here with tarps still on the roof from Ian.  Insurance companies have dragged their feet and now we're under threat of a tropical storm or possible hurricane.  Tropical storms can bring some damage and flooding with it.  I was hoping for a very quiet season .... we are just about at the peak of the season.... months left to go.  Joy!

State of emergency declared for most of Florida’s Gulf Coast as tropical system approaches

As a tropical system continues to march toward Florida, with a high chance of becoming a depression or something stronger in the coming days, a state of emergency was declared Saturday for most counties on the Gulf Coast.

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order that declared the state of emergency for 33 counties, including Manatee, Hillsborough (where Tampa is) and Leon (where Tallahassee is). The order allows for emergency resources and preparation to move quicker and more freely.

“I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week,” DeSantis said in a statement. “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”

Heavy rainfall, strong winds and isolated tornado activity is what the governor’s office said it expects Florida’s west coast to see........

https://www.yahoo.com/news/state-emergency-declared-most-florida-175800601.html

System, now known as 93L, has a pretty tight spread of model data where 90% of the runs focus on Tallahase and a bit westward.  Intensity models are not as consistent with windspeeds at landfall at this point ranging from 40 to 108 knots (120 mph),and a median of 68 knots, which is a high end Tropical Storm.    Looking at the GOM profiles at this exact point shows minimal shear in the eastern Gulf.  Considering the way above surface temps.

Possibly there are seeing slow development because when you look at the Wave, it sure seems at least at this moment that it is having issues organizing.  The heaviest areas of convection keep shifting, which is a sure tell taled sign of that.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me, the main parts of the low seem to be shifting SE, back towards the Central Caribbean.

[libertybele]

System, now known as 93L, has a pretty tight spread of model data where 90% of the runs focus on Tallahase and a bit westward.  Intensity models are not as consistent with windspeeds at landfall at this point ranging from 40 to 108 knots (120 mph),and a median of 68 knots, which is a high end Tropical Storm.    Looking at the GOM profiles at this exact point shows minimal shear in the eastern Gulf.  Considering the way above surface temps.

Possibly there are seeing slow development because when you look at the Wave, it sure seems at least at this moment that it is having issues organizing.  The heaviest areas of convection keep shifting, which is a sure tell taled sign of that.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me, the main parts of the low seem to be shifting SE, back towards the Central Caribbean.

I'm always leery of systems on this side of the Gulf. I've seen spaghetti models with the storm being aimed at Tampa. They always start out with the warning storms headed towards Tampa Bay and it seems more often than not they've been wrong and usually we get knocked around pretty well much further south of that.

[libertybele]

Tropical Depression Ten forms near southern Gulf of Mexico with sights set on Florida as a hurricane

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely organize into Tropical Storm Idalia and a hurricane before landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast.

As of the latest advisory from the NHC, sustained winds with the tropical derepression were around 30 mph.

The cyclone is expected to be upgraded to Idalia during the next 24 hours, and watches will likely be required during the next 48 hours for parts of the Florida coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach levels of 39 to 73 mph within 48 hours. Sustained winds of these levels can produce damage and can be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding and tornadoes. A Hurricane Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach at least 74 mph within 48 hours.............

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-storm-threat-florida

[Wingnut]

Tropical Depression Ten forms near southern Gulf of Mexico with sights set on Florida as a hurricane

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely organize into Tropical Storm Idalia and a hurricane before landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast.

As of the latest advisory from the NHC, sustained winds with the tropical derepression were around 30 mph.

The cyclone is expected to be upgraded to Idalia during the next 24 hours, and watches will likely be required during the next 48 hours for parts of the Florida coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach levels of 39 to 73 mph within 48 hours. Sustained winds of these levels can produce damage and can be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding and tornadoes. A Hurricane Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach at least 74 mph within 48 hours.............

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-storm-threat-florida

Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane.  But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.

[libertybele]

Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane.  But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.

I hope you're right.  We still have quite a few around here who still have tarps on their roofs and the expected rain is going to be problematic. 

Too early to tell yet anyways.

[Wingnut]

I hope you're right.  We still have quite a few around here who still have tarps on their roofs and the expected rain is going to be problematic. 

Too early to tell yet anyways.

Way to early.  My take is I don't care.

[Cyber Liberty]

Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane.  But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.

Just like Comet Kohoutek Hurricane Hilary.  I didn't get a drop of rain from her, I just got the standard Monsoon rains, about 0.75 inches.

[catfish1957]

11 am advisory has newly named Idalia with projected track Just west of Talahassee to Tampa Bay.  Newly updated model projection have been revised to  a Wednesday morning landfall has a strong Cat 1 at 80 knots.

GOM profiles do show some addtional sheer with a tongue of sheer at about 25N, 85W, which is in path of storm.  That may be why they are not predicting rapid intensification.  Storm itself is pretty raggedy, and actually finding the COC is not that easy of a task.  That is why I won't be a bit surprised to see potential significant COC relocation.  So my advise to Briefers, is don't get too comfortable with present track.  In fact 90% of the covection is dislodged (east) of what the NHC is calling the Center.

[Gefn]

bookmark

[mountaineer]

Tropical Storm Idalia Likely to Become Hurricane Headed to Florida West Coast
August 27, 2023 | Sundance | 1 Comment

Information from the National Hurricane Center [DATA HERE] indicates currently slow-moving Tropical Storm Idalia will likely speed up quickly tomorrow and form a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  The current cone of uncertainty puts the Northern and Western portion of Florida at greatest risk.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. ...


https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/08/27/tropical-storm-idalia-likely-to-become-hurricane-headed-to-florida-west-coast/

[libertybele]

11 am advisory has newly named Idalia with projected track Just west of Talahassee to Tampa Bay.  Newly updated model projection have been revised to  a Wednesday morning landfall has a strong Cat 1 at 80 knots.

GOM profiles do show some addtional sheer with a tongue of sheer at about 25N, 85W, which is in path of storm.  That may be why they are not predicting rapid intensification.  Storm itself is pretty raggedy, and actually finding the COC is not that easy of a task.  That is why I won't be a bit surprised to see potential significant COC relocation.  So my advise to Briefers, is don't get too comfortable with present track.  In fact 90% of the covection is dislodged (east) of what the NHC is calling the Center.

Definitely I am not comfortable with the track; too much uncertainty.  I've been watching different predictions with landfall anywhere from Ft. Myers up to the panhandle which is quite a spread, but I've also heard a possibility of Cat. 2.

Most are predicting landfall around the Big Bend area -- hurricanes are too unpredictable and the cone could shift dramatically very quickly.

'Tis the season.   

[mountaineer]

Ron DeSantis
@GovRonDeSantis
We are preparing for impacts from Tropical Storm #Idalia, which is expected to strengthen over the coming days before impacting the Gulf Coast mid-week. Florida has resources on standby that are ready to deploy as needed.
Follow @FLSERT for updates.
4:34 PM · Aug 27, 2023

[GtHawk]

Here's a report from Ryan Hall, I watch him because he's related to my SIL and seems fairly accurate.

In this video we are talking about hurricane Idalia and Franklin & their impacts on the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gOI&t=301s

[libertybele]

Here's a report from Ryan Hall, I watch him because he's related to my SIL and seems fairly accurate.

In this video we are talking about hurricane Idalia and Franklin & their impacts on the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gO

Unable to access the video. 

[cato potatoe]

It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point."  Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch.  Cue the circus.

[cato potatoe]

Definitely I am not comfortable with the track; too much uncertainty.  I've been watching different predictions with landfall anywhere from Ft. Myers up to the panhandle which is quite a spread, but I've also heard a possibility of Cat. 2.

Most are predicting landfall around the Big Bend area -- hurricanes are too unpredictable and the cone could shift dramatically very quickly.

'Tis the season.   

The most recent apocalyptic storms were projected to strike Tampa Bay, only to shift east in the final 36 hours: Charley, Irma, Ian.  So as a result, most people are not paying attention to this yet.  Quite a few of them could have sea water in their living rooms on Tuesday night. 

Since you have experience with storms, I am willing to let you handle this one too.   

[Wingnut]

It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point."  Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch.  Cue the circus.

No need to panic till Jim Cantore shows up.

So taday I had to pick up a 12 pack at publix.  So just for shits a giggles I walked down the water isle.  Damn thing was wiped out cept for gallon jugs.  Hell, we aren't even in the projected cone of doom.

Beer is good. God is great and People are stupid.

[catfish1957]

It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point."  Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch.  Cue the circus.

Exactly.  Like I mentioned this morning, I am not really sure NHC has 100% consensus on the storm initialization. 

Looking at the models, and those unknowns, I'd suggest anywhere east of the Mississippi River keep an eye on advisories

[GtHawk]

Unable to access the video. 

@libertybele  New link, I don't know what happened

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gOI&t=301s

[cato potatoe]

No need to panic till Jim Cantore shows up.

He'll be here by Monday afternoon, I bet.  Idalia found a tank of Caribbean rocket fuel this evening.  No bueno.

[catfish1957]

Looking at this morning's model runs, and condtions in the GOM, just a few observations:

1.  Winds and sheer has dropped to near zero to the north and path of the storm.  That is a green light toward intensification.
2. Sea Temperatures are anaomolus highs
3. There is a dry tongue of air from South Texas to near the west Tip of Cuba that might restrict some early rapid intensification.
4. Trough axis (weak front) between East Texas to KY is also going to be critical to how much and how soon of an eastward turn the storm makes. 
5. Storm itself is finally starting to show some symethry and organization.
6.  I see storm is now forcasted to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if that upward trend continues. 

[libertybele]

Looking at this morning's model runs, and condtions in the GOM, just a few observations:

1.  Winds and sheer has dropped to near zero to the north and path of the storm.  That is a green light toward intensification.
2. Sea Temperatures are anaomolus highs
3. There is a dry tongue of air from South Texas to near the west Tip of Cuba that might restrict some early rapid intensification.
4. Trough axis (weak front) between East Texas to KY is also going to be critical to how much and how soon of an eastward turn the storm makes. 
5. Storm itself is finally starting to show some symethry and organization.
6.  I see storm is now forcasted to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if that upward trend continues.

In listening to the latest local forecasts, storm surge watch is in effect for our area.  Interestingly they have not shown any "spaghetti model" tracks since yesterday.  They are still expecting it to hit the Big Bend area -- but they have now increased the 'warning' area of storm surge.  This is concerning.

We've have some water, but the stores are empty.  I'll start filling up the 3gal jugs that we have with tap water (ugh)  -- it's drinkable.

Plenty of food -- gas stations are crazy.  We have a gas caddy filled for the generator and our cars are filled up.  We will see impact as early as tomorrow morning.

We are staying put.  The latest announcement for the county is that there are no evacuation orders in place.  We will know more by 5:30 -- a little late to start evacuations for tomorrow. Here we are once again!!

The forecasting has a lot to be desired.  I feel like they don't have a clue. 

[berdie]

Much luck to you and all other Fla residents.

[catfish1957]

Model data has tightened nicely around an approximate Cedar Key landfall at what appears to be hurricane winds arriving late Tues.

Noticed there is a large clump of convection that has broken off to the north, that with that churning might slightly help delay intensification, though the NHC doesn't seem to be picking up on that.  Storm itself though slowly organizing does not show a evident sign of an open discernable eye, or the nice spiral configuation.  I do see evidence of a strong COC, but not typical of a storm in this level of development.

I know the NHC knows a helluva lot more than me, and has a plethora of data I don't have access to.  But for the life of me, I don' t see how this storm under the present scenario can strengthen from 85 to 120 mph given what I see in the GOM right now.   I am guessing / banking tht the NHC is putting stock into the overheated NE Gulf water temperatures for that call.

When Idelia passes Tampa Bay's latitude, the cone at least at this advisory will be about 60 miles wide.  But where in that 60 mile cone is going to be like night and day for the folks in TB.  East side?..  Expect hurricane force winds possibly and storm surge flooding. West side? A Breezy rainy day.

One interesting point is that this is one of the more behaved (predictive) storms I have seen in awhile.  The path hasn't strayed more than 100 miles in any direction since the storm has been inititalized.  Strength wise, I think they underestimated early, but at least from my POV, landfall might be anywhere from 90-130 mph sustained winds.  Let's not forget how unpredictable these things are.

Back in 2007, I watched Humberto hit us, while being a wave one day, and a Cat 1 storm the next.

[catfish1957]

With 11 am advisory, max windspeeds still at 85 mph.  Which is surprising, and  consistent with my earlier contention that the 120-125 mph max windspeed at landfall might be overstated.

Otherwise, no change in track and timing.

[libertybele]

5:00 p.m. advisory - now tracking north and moving slightly faster @ 16mph - winds - 100 mph.  Now a Cat 2 hurricane.  Winds at landfall will be a little less at 115 mph. -- still a Cat 3.  Storm surge will still be significant with the possibility of the Big Bend area seeing 15 ft. 

[Wingnut]

I am pissed.   We need rain bad and this damn storm is turning right. 

[libertybele]

I am pissed.   We need rain bad and this damn storm is turning right.

Be careful what you wish for -- hurricanes are so unpredictable.

We are getting lots of rain -- heavy rain and gusts of wind off and on for the next 12 hrs.  We will get storm surge during high tide -- not good  I'm hoping and praying for the best.  The Big Bend area /Tampa Bay/Cedar Key are going to be absolutely devastated.

[Wingnut]

Be careful what you wish for -- hurricanes are so unpredictable.

We are getting lots of rain -- heavy rain and gusts of wind off and on for the next 12 hrs.  We will get storm surge during high tide -- not good  I'm hoping and praying for the best.  The Big Bend area /Tampa Bay/Cedar Key are going to be absolutely devastated.

Hey.  It is the luck of the draw.  I really don't care as long as I dont get hit. 

[catfish1957]

Storm strenghthen significantly over the afternoon, and sustained winds are up to 105 mph.  I really enjoy studying the configuation of storm, as mapping each is as unique as a snowflake.   One really interesting component of Ilaya is look at the southern outflow of the storm.   It extends all the way to the SW coast of Mexico.  (Truncated on this map, but look at other VISAT.

[catfish1957]

There is always at least one Cape Verde Storm in September that always scares the sh__ out of us, and AL95, a couple of thousand miles east of Windward Islands, might be this year's candidate.  It is an unusually well developed wave this early in its development. 

Def. one to keep an eye on.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[catfish1957]

AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee.  This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days.  The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide.  Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm.  Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early.  Def. one we have to watch closely.

[libertybele]

AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee.  This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days.  The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide.  Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm.  Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early.  Def. one we have to watch closely.

Hoping that this one stays away from FL -- we've had enough.

[GtHawk]

AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee.  This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days.  The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide.  Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm.  Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early.  Def. one we have to watch closely.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HY1EAzjxz8

[catfish1957]

https://www.yutube.com/watch?v=5HY1EAzjxz8

A mid September Trough/Front of this magnitude would be just what the doctor ordered.  OTOH, seeing a 1020 Mb High reaching the GOM around September would be a pretty darn rare event, and something more  more likely seen in October.  Which is why Texas has never seen a Major Hurricane in October.

Another point that the guy (who did a good job on his synopsis) lost site of, is that this storm is so early in its life, we still haven't got what I feel is a iron clad initialization point.  COC's this early on can relocate a 100 miles at a drop of a hat.  And any significant southern relocation of the center can change the projected path by several 100's of miles.  Don't forget, just a 5 degree latitude  southward shift, can significantly reduce the corollis trending that causes storms typically to turn North, then East.

In a nutshell, any speculation of where this storm goes is a pure guess. That means anywhere from Mexico (like Gilbert) to Fish Central is in play.

[libertybele]

A mid September Trough/Front of this magnitude would be just what the doctor ordered.  OTOH, seeing a 1020 Mb High reaching the GOM around September would be a pretty darn rare event, and something more  more likely seen in October.  Which is why Texas has never seen a Major Hurricane in October.

Another point that the guy (who did a good job on his synopsis) lost site of, is that this storm is so early in its life, we still haven't got what I feel is a iron clad initialization point.  COC's this early on can relocate a 100 miles at a drop of a hat.  And any significant southern relocation of the center can change the projected path by several 100's of miles.  Don't forget, just a 5 degree latitude  southward shift, can significantly reduce the corollis trending that causes storms typically to turn North, then East.

In a nutshell, any speculation of where this storm goes is a pure guess. That means anywhere from Mexico (like Gilbert) to Fish Central is in play.

Now tropical Storm Lee.  Local news is reporting that there is some indication that this could become a Cat 5 Hurricane.  Spaghetti models are not in total agreement that this will miss FL with most models showing it moving up towards the Carolinas.

This is moving rapidly with very little wind sheer to prevent it from further development.

I don't like the looks of where this is heading and a Cat 5 is very worrisome.  It's going to be again one of those last minute efforts to get out of harms way because it is moving so rapidly and too early right now to tell where it's heading.

[catfish1957]

NHC has Lee an eyelash under Cat 5 status by Saturday.  Path is forecasted to be very linear  at 295 degrees.  This is pretty typical of monster storms which sometimes do this as they sometimes seem  to defy atmospheric influences.  Gilbert comes to mind as an example.

Unless this one somehow succumbs to a northward curve, we are likely looking at historic storm.

[Kamaji]

NHC has Lee an eyelash under Cat 5 status by Saturday.  Path is forecasted to be very linear  at 295 degrees.  This is pretty typical of monster storms which sometimes do this as they sometimes seem  to defy atmospheric influences.  Gilbert comes to mind as an example.

Unless this one somehow succumbs to a northward curve, we are likely looking at historic storm.

That one looks like it'll tromp right straight across Florida, into the northern Gulf, and then head up into the heartland.

[Gefn]

That one looks like it'll tromp right straight across Florida, into the northern Gulf, and then head up into the heartland.

I"m terrible at geography. Does it Looks like it will go up the East Coast?

[libertybele]

Local news is reporting that Hurricane Lee is 500 miles wide and is projected to take a turn to the north due to Bermuda high winds.  However not all spaghetti models are in agreement - some show it going into the Gulf, some show it hitting the lower southeast coast of FL though most show it taking a northward trend away from the U.S. coast.  Tomorrow into Saturday it will become a Cat 4 and the direction will be much better known.

[libertybele]

[libertybele]

Jim Cantore
@JimCantore

Beyond Sunday things get very interesting because steering is resetting in the larger scale atmosphere and how certain features evolve and interact is very important as to how #Lee interacts or doesn't with Bermuda and/or the eastern part of USA/Canada.   So this tweet is all about NEXT WEEK.
Lee could stall early next week north of the Greater Antilles as it waits for large scale features to set up.  Monday features a formidable Lee north of the Greater Antilles.  By Wednesday several ECMWF members have Lee on the move north with east coast troughing and a subtropical ridge north and east.  By next Friday look at the spread by the members.  It could be anywhere from north of the Turks to north of Bermuda.  You can see the features set up on the ECMWF for Friday, but little confidence in how strong or weak they are and how they play with Lee at this point is shown here. 
That is why Bermuda should be watching Lee intently and we cannot rule out impacts for the northeast USA and maritime Canada at this time.  We do know this will be a huge wave machine for the eastern part of the USA.

[catfish1957]

Almost all model data is pointing to a significant trough/front late this week in SE CONUS that is going result in a significant northward turn.
Seems the GOM is spared, and FL much less likely impacted outside of rip currents.  Mid Atlantic to New England isn't out of the woods yet, but at least the past 12 hour trending is looking much better.

I still think this thing has a 50/50 chance of making it to Cat 5.  In any case, in its forceast they are expecting Lee to have a 400 mile diameter of tropical force winds.  That's impressive.

[Kamaji]

Almost all model data is pointing to a significant trough/front late this week in SE CONUS that is going result in a significant northward turn.
Seems the GOM is spared, and FL much less likely impacted outside of rip currents.  Mid Atlantic to New England isn't out of the woods yet, but at least the past 12 hour trending is looking much better.

I still think this thing has a 50/50 chance of making it to Cat 5.  In any case, in its forceast they are expecting Lee to have a 400 mile diameter of tropical force winds.  That's impressive.

What are the odds that it might smack into NY harbor, or cut across L.I.?