2023 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

Hard to believe but we are only a few weeks away from Hurricane Season. Want to set up a thread so I can share tropical weather updates that may impact coastal Briefers.  At least this year, we near the GOM are seeing a few degree temp anomaly, coupled with some wind vectoring (speed and direction) that might if the trend hold, give us an active early season, which normally for us is in June. 

I know we normally think of these these being their worst in August and September, but there have been major hurricanes like Audrey in 1957 have hit in June, and have killed 100's.

Looking at the visual sat runs this morning, and wow, the GOM looks like an organizing mid and upper level low right at 96W/27N.  No word yet of any development from the NHC, but I do know we are in for an extra we few days here. 



Not sure the trend will continue, but if we are seeing robust lows this early, it might be an interesting June.

[Cyber Liberty]

 

[libertybele]

Hard to believe but we are only a few weeks away from Hurricane Season. Want to set up a thread so I can share tropical weather updates that may impact coastal Briefers.  At least this year, we near the GOM are seeing a few degree temp anomaly, coupled with some wind vectoring (speed and direction) that might if the trend hold, give us an active early season, which normally for us is in June. 

I know we normally think of these these being their worst in August and September, but there have been major hurricanes like Audrey in 1957 have hit in June, and have killed 100's.

Looking at the visual sat runs this morning, and wow, the GOM looks like an organizing mid and upper level low right at 96W/27N.  No word yet of any development from the NHC, but I do know we are in for an extra we few days here. 



Not sure the trend will continue, but if we are seeing robust lows this early, it might be an interesting June.

Lots of blue tarps still on roofs around here.  It's a mess, people are still waiting on insurance to handover $$ for claims and insurance companies are leaving and of course premiums are skyrocketing. Places are just starting to rebuild. Our area yacht club closed and they are rebuilding; it's going to be a year or so.  So, it is hard to believe that hurricane season is about a week away.

[catfish1957]

B and C Storms in the Caribbean and Atlantic right now (Brett and Cindy)

Neither at least at this juncture appear to be threats to the CONUS.  My fear though is that ATL activity this early in the season may mean an active August and September, as there are some pretty nice sized warmer than usual plumes in those locations and eastwards this early.

Also a TX and Northern GOM heat wave this early doesn't help.

[GtHawk]

I thought I saw reports that the Atlantic is seeing record heat(well record as far as we know) that is causing a higher risk of hurricanes earlier than normal.

[libertybele]

And here we go .... time to dodge or time to stay put? Too early to tell where this is going, but DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency.  Lots of homes around here with tarps still on the roof from Ian.  Insurance companies have dragged their feet and now we're under threat of a tropical storm or possible hurricane.  Tropical storms can bring some damage and flooding with it.  I was hoping for a very quiet season .... we are just about at the peak of the season.... months left to go.  Joy!

State of emergency declared for most of Florida’s Gulf Coast as tropical system approaches

As a tropical system continues to march toward Florida, with a high chance of becoming a depression or something stronger in the coming days, a state of emergency was declared Saturday for most counties on the Gulf Coast.

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order that declared the state of emergency for 33 counties, including Manatee, Hillsborough (where Tampa is) and Leon (where Tallahassee is). The order allows for emergency resources and preparation to move quicker and more freely.

“I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week,” DeSantis said in a statement. “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”

Heavy rainfall, strong winds and isolated tornado activity is what the governor’s office said it expects Florida’s west coast to see........

https://www.yahoo.com/news/state-emergency-declared-most-florida-175800601.html

[catfish1957]

And here we go .... time to dodge or time to stay put? Too early to tell where this is going, but DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency.  Lots of homes around here with tarps still on the roof from Ian.  Insurance companies have dragged their feet and now we're under threat of a tropical storm or possible hurricane.  Tropical storms can bring some damage and flooding with it.  I was hoping for a very quiet season .... we are just about at the peak of the season.... months left to go.  Joy!

State of emergency declared for most of Florida’s Gulf Coast as tropical system approaches

As a tropical system continues to march toward Florida, with a high chance of becoming a depression or something stronger in the coming days, a state of emergency was declared Saturday for most counties on the Gulf Coast.

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order that declared the state of emergency for 33 counties, including Manatee, Hillsborough (where Tampa is) and Leon (where Tallahassee is). The order allows for emergency resources and preparation to move quicker and more freely.

“I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week,” DeSantis said in a statement. “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”

Heavy rainfall, strong winds and isolated tornado activity is what the governor’s office said it expects Florida’s west coast to see........

https://www.yahoo.com/news/state-emergency-declared-most-florida-175800601.html

System, now known as 93L, has a pretty tight spread of model data where 90% of the runs focus on Tallahase and a bit westward.  Intensity models are not as consistent with windspeeds at landfall at this point ranging from 40 to 108 knots (120 mph),and a median of 68 knots, which is a high end Tropical Storm.    Looking at the GOM profiles at this exact point shows minimal shear in the eastern Gulf.  Considering the way above surface temps.

Possibly there are seeing slow development because when you look at the Wave, it sure seems at least at this moment that it is having issues organizing.  The heaviest areas of convection keep shifting, which is a sure tell taled sign of that.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me, the main parts of the low seem to be shifting SE, back towards the Central Caribbean.

[libertybele]

System, now known as 93L, has a pretty tight spread of model data where 90% of the runs focus on Tallahase and a bit westward.  Intensity models are not as consistent with windspeeds at landfall at this point ranging from 40 to 108 knots (120 mph),and a median of 68 knots, which is a high end Tropical Storm.    Looking at the GOM profiles at this exact point shows minimal shear in the eastern Gulf.  Considering the way above surface temps.

Possibly there are seeing slow development because when you look at the Wave, it sure seems at least at this moment that it is having issues organizing.  The heaviest areas of convection keep shifting, which is a sure tell taled sign of that.  In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me, the main parts of the low seem to be shifting SE, back towards the Central Caribbean.

I'm always leery of systems on this side of the Gulf. I've seen spaghetti models with the storm being aimed at Tampa. They always start out with the warning storms headed towards Tampa Bay and it seems more often than not they've been wrong and usually we get knocked around pretty well much further south of that.

[libertybele]

Tropical Depression Ten forms near southern Gulf of Mexico with sights set on Florida as a hurricane

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely organize into Tropical Storm Idalia and a hurricane before landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast.

As of the latest advisory from the NHC, sustained winds with the tropical derepression were around 30 mph.

The cyclone is expected to be upgraded to Idalia during the next 24 hours, and watches will likely be required during the next 48 hours for parts of the Florida coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach levels of 39 to 73 mph within 48 hours. Sustained winds of these levels can produce damage and can be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding and tornadoes. A Hurricane Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach at least 74 mph within 48 hours.............

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-storm-threat-florida

[Wingnut]

Tropical Depression Ten forms near southern Gulf of Mexico with sights set on Florida as a hurricane

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely organize into Tropical Storm Idalia and a hurricane before landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast.

As of the latest advisory from the NHC, sustained winds with the tropical derepression were around 30 mph.

The cyclone is expected to be upgraded to Idalia during the next 24 hours, and watches will likely be required during the next 48 hours for parts of the Florida coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach levels of 39 to 73 mph within 48 hours. Sustained winds of these levels can produce damage and can be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding and tornadoes. A Hurricane Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach at least 74 mph within 48 hours.............

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-storm-threat-florida

Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane.  But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.

[libertybele]

Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane.  But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.

I hope you're right.  We still have quite a few around here who still have tarps on their roofs and the expected rain is going to be problematic. 

Too early to tell yet anyways.

[Wingnut]

I hope you're right.  We still have quite a few around here who still have tarps on their roofs and the expected rain is going to be problematic. 

Too early to tell yet anyways.

Way to early.  My take is I don't care.

[Cyber Liberty]

Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane.  But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.

Just like Comet Kohoutek Hurricane Hilary.  I didn't get a drop of rain from her, I just got the standard Monsoon rains, about 0.75 inches.

[catfish1957]

11 am advisory has newly named Idalia with projected track Just west of Talahassee to Tampa Bay.  Newly updated model projection have been revised to  a Wednesday morning landfall has a strong Cat 1 at 80 knots.

GOM profiles do show some addtional sheer with a tongue of sheer at about 25N, 85W, which is in path of storm.  That may be why they are not predicting rapid intensification.  Storm itself is pretty raggedy, and actually finding the COC is not that easy of a task.  That is why I won't be a bit surprised to see potential significant COC relocation.  So my advise to Briefers, is don't get too comfortable with present track.  In fact 90% of the covection is dislodged (east) of what the NHC is calling the Center.

[Gefn]

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[mountaineer]

Tropical Storm Idalia Likely to Become Hurricane Headed to Florida West Coast
August 27, 2023 | Sundance | 1 Comment

Information from the National Hurricane Center [DATA HERE] indicates currently slow-moving Tropical Storm Idalia will likely speed up quickly tomorrow and form a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  The current cone of uncertainty puts the Northern and Western portion of Florida at greatest risk.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. ...


https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/08/27/tropical-storm-idalia-likely-to-become-hurricane-headed-to-florida-west-coast/

[libertybele]

11 am advisory has newly named Idalia with projected track Just west of Talahassee to Tampa Bay.  Newly updated model projection have been revised to  a Wednesday morning landfall has a strong Cat 1 at 80 knots.

GOM profiles do show some addtional sheer with a tongue of sheer at about 25N, 85W, which is in path of storm.  That may be why they are not predicting rapid intensification.  Storm itself is pretty raggedy, and actually finding the COC is not that easy of a task.  That is why I won't be a bit surprised to see potential significant COC relocation.  So my advise to Briefers, is don't get too comfortable with present track.  In fact 90% of the covection is dislodged (east) of what the NHC is calling the Center.

Definitely I am not comfortable with the track; too much uncertainty.  I've been watching different predictions with landfall anywhere from Ft. Myers up to the panhandle which is quite a spread, but I've also heard a possibility of Cat. 2.

Most are predicting landfall around the Big Bend area -- hurricanes are too unpredictable and the cone could shift dramatically very quickly.

'Tis the season.   

[mountaineer]

Ron DeSantis
@GovRonDeSantis
We are preparing for impacts from Tropical Storm #Idalia, which is expected to strengthen over the coming days before impacting the Gulf Coast mid-week. Florida has resources on standby that are ready to deploy as needed.
Follow @FLSERT for updates.
4:34 PM · Aug 27, 2023

[GtHawk]

Here's a report from Ryan Hall, I watch him because he's related to my SIL and seems fairly accurate.

In this video we are talking about hurricane Idalia and Franklin & their impacts on the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gOI&t=301s

[libertybele]

Here's a report from Ryan Hall, I watch him because he's related to my SIL and seems fairly accurate.

In this video we are talking about hurricane Idalia and Franklin & their impacts on the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gO

Unable to access the video. 

[cato potatoe]

It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point."  Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch.  Cue the circus.

[cato potatoe]

Definitely I am not comfortable with the track; too much uncertainty.  I've been watching different predictions with landfall anywhere from Ft. Myers up to the panhandle which is quite a spread, but I've also heard a possibility of Cat. 2.

Most are predicting landfall around the Big Bend area -- hurricanes are too unpredictable and the cone could shift dramatically very quickly.

'Tis the season.   

The most recent apocalyptic storms were projected to strike Tampa Bay, only to shift east in the final 36 hours: Charley, Irma, Ian.  So as a result, most people are not paying attention to this yet.  Quite a few of them could have sea water in their living rooms on Tuesday night. 

Since you have experience with storms, I am willing to let you handle this one too.   

[Wingnut]

It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point."  Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch.  Cue the circus.

No need to panic till Jim Cantore shows up.

So taday I had to pick up a 12 pack at publix.  So just for shits a giggles I walked down the water isle.  Damn thing was wiped out cept for gallon jugs.  Hell, we aren't even in the projected cone of doom.

Beer is good. God is great and People are stupid.

[catfish1957]

It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point."  Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch.  Cue the circus.

Exactly.  Like I mentioned this morning, I am not really sure NHC has 100% consensus on the storm initialization. 

Looking at the models, and those unknowns, I'd suggest anywhere east of the Mississippi River keep an eye on advisories

[GtHawk]

Unable to access the video. 

@libertybele  New link, I don't know what happened

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gOI&t=301s