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Offline libertybele

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Hurricane Ian Thread
« on: September 21, 2022, 03:57:22 pm »
It's out a ways, but by the looks of the project track on the map, hurricane coming up that side of the Gulf are never a good sign for around me. 


A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.

A developing tropical system could spin up into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, forecasters warned Wednesday.

"This is the most significant threat for the U.S. mainland we've had this hurricane season," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

The system, known now as Invest 98L, was located near the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday.

An "Invest" is an area that the National Hurricane Center is watching closely with advanced computer models and other resources, including the Hurricane Hunters, for possible development, according to Weather.com.



https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-gulf-mexico-next-week-173738962.html

« Last Edit: September 26, 2022, 11:21:58 am by jmyrlefuller »
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Offline Bigun

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2022, 04:03:27 pm »
If you live anywhere near the Florida panhandle the time to start making preparations is now.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2022, 04:26:38 pm »
My take on 98L at this point.

GOM's basically been untapped as a heat sink for the entire summer.  This might get ugly.

Over half the Models have this as a Cat 3 or Cat 4, and this is just at the 168 hr, point. 

As expected @168 hr.  early models have a pretty wide spread from mid Yucatan to about 75 west of Tampa. Except for the 2 models heading toward Yucatan, and 2 through western Cuba  the other 11 or so thread the channel between Yucatan and the Keys.

Being late September, and now seeing some fronts and troughing from the north CONUS, I am leaning toward this being more of an eastern GOM threat.  OTOH, if this follows the more western track, I think almost the entire GOM is into play.

But, as I like to remind my fellow Texans,.....  There has never been a Major hurricane strike to Texas after October 1.  Just a meterorlogical fact that takes in account the troughs and fronts I mentioned earlier.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2022, 04:32:23 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline DefiantMassRINO

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2022, 04:46:22 pm »
Holy crap!  That storm will bomb out (bombogenesis) over the Gulf of Mexico.  The only thing that could prevent that is wind shear in upper levels of the atmosphere.

Water Temperature Table of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/egof.html

Water Temperature Table of the Western Gulf of Mexico
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/wgof.html
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2022, 04:54:51 pm »
Quote from: Bigun on September 21, 2022, 04:03:27 pm
If you live anywhere near the Florida panhandle the time to start making preparations is now.

....hmmm as of right now where they show this hurricane heading is towards the southern portion of FL. It looks like it's going to come up somewhere on the western side of the Gulf (not good for our area).  This is the same path that Charley took and was a Cat 4 (which we stayed through)......

I don't see it hitting the panhandle at all.  Just my opinion.

I'm hoping at this point that it fizzles out and is a tropical storm.

Hurricane Donna back in the '60's took a similar path and she came up the coast and then turned back and pummled areas of southern FL.

P.S. Either way, I'm not dodging this one. I have too many health issues to be riding in a car trying to escape.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2022, 04:56:37 pm by libertybele »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2022, 05:21:34 pm »
ORLANDO, Fla. – Ten days after the peak of hurricane season, the tropics are very active, with Hurricane Fiona expected to reach Category 4 status on its approach toward Bermuda, a new tropical storm and a tropical wave, now known as Invest 98L, that many models show potentially moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

Fiona dumped copious amounts of rain over the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, where a 58-year-old man died after police said he was swept away by a river in the central mountain town of Comerio. Another death was linked to the blackout — a 70-year-old man who was burned to death after he tried to fill his generator with gasoline while it was running, officials said.

Meanwhile, Invest 98L, several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, has become better organized. Additional development is expected, with a tropical depression likely to form within the next few days as the system moves west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

The NHC said Invest 98L has a 70% chance of development over the next two days and a 90% chance over the next five days.

Many long-range computer models show the system heading into the Gulf of Mexico, but its projected path and strength are uncertain.

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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2022, 05:24:54 pm »
The projected path from the NHC in Miami and the one from AccuWeather are definitely not anywhere close in agreement.

Per the NHC they are supposed to be sending in a reconnaissance aircraft into the system this evening.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Offline DefiantMassRINO

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2022, 05:32:43 pm »
"spaghetti charts" and "the cone of uncertainty" to follow

... some days I feel like I'm living in a "cone of uncertainty"
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2022, 05:41:14 pm »
Quote from: DefiantMassRINO on September 21, 2022, 05:32:43 pm
"spaghetti charts" and "the cone of uncertainty" to follow

... some days I feel like I'm living in a "cone of uncertainty"

I hear you. With Joe as president I'm definitely living in a cone of uncertainty.

Interesting that they are sending in aircraft this far ahead of time --- perhaps not a good sign. Tomorrow we'll definitely have a better idea.

Yes, the spaghetti models will be flowing freely soon.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2022, 05:42:07 pm by libertybele »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2022, 06:28:51 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on September 21, 2022, 05:24:54 pm
The projected path from the NHC in Miami and the one from AccuWeather are definitely not anywhere close in agreement.

Per the NHC they are supposed to be sending in a reconnaissance aircraft into the system this evening.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Initialization of where the COC (center of circulation) forms is first of utmost criticality.  Right now half of the covection of the wave is over land in South America stretching out maybe 400 miles to the ENE.  That is one of the reasons why there is such a disparity and if wide range in early model runs. Looking at the radar loops it looks like at least right now the center is right at the coast.  The chance of that changing and morphing early on is near 100%.



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Offline catfish1957

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2022, 12:20:03 am »
Here are some early model runs.  Please realize that this still noes not include the initializtion of a solid COC (storm location).

Of those listed, I have found that the HWFI seems to do the best job taking a good consensus estimate of the potential storm.  Again, this is really early on, so, so much could change as the storm progresses. 

Looking at the 24-168 hr. CONUS model runs seems to show troughing and lack of building Highs during the storm run.  That shows me that this again should indicate a more northern run as the storm gains latitude.  That would favor a <90 degree longitude northward turn.  (Eastern GOM)

General consensus also has the storm a little less robust on wind sppeds (good news), with the line share of models running this as a Cat 1.

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2022, 08:37:22 am »
Interesting, the more normal reliable HWFI has become the outlier.  Kind of usual to see this level of consistency in the models this early on.    Overall (again 212-236 hours out) shows a FL strike.  Models are showing a wide range of intensity, from anywhere from a strong tropical storm to a Cat 4 storm.



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Online Wingnut

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2022, 08:42:23 am »
If it does come up the gulf I see westerly winds pushing it inland to central FL.  But that is just my opinion based on past experience with Sept Canes.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2022, 09:06:08 am »
Quote from: Wingnut on September 22, 2022, 08:42:23 am
If it does come up the gulf I see westerly winds pushing it inland to central FL.  But that is just my opinion based on past experience with Sept Canes.

I agree with you.  This looks like the same path Charley took in '04.  The forecasters at the time predicted it striking the Tampa area, it took a turn at the last minute and hit south of Tampa striking as a Cat 4 and then went up into the Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte area.

We saw 3 additional hurricanes after that.  Right now there are a couple of others lined up further out with one having a 60% chance formation.

It looks like FL is going to see some action within this week and the following week.  (sigh)
 
« Last Edit: September 22, 2022, 09:11:25 am by libertybele »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2022, 01:40:56 pm »
Neither the National Hurricane Center or local weather stations are giving any definitive information.  They are all saying it's too early to tell.  We in this area have a new doplar 3X that's supposed to be very accurate -- all they are saying again is it's too early to say anything.

Latest spaghetti models.

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2022, 05:49:10 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on September 22, 2022, 01:40:56 pm
We in this area have a new doplar 3X that's supposed to be very accurate -- all they are saying again is it's too early to say anything.
That I'm assuming is a radar device. Radar is strictly an observation system; it has no predictive power.

Forecast models (i.e., computers) are what do the prediction. Radar can provide a lot of valuable input to models, but they're limited to line of sight, meaning once you get past about 150 miles into the Gulf of Mexico, they're not going to provide anything meaningful. Same goes for surface observations: there are a few buoys out there, but much more sparse than over land.

The vast majority of observation data that goes into these models comes from satellite observations. It's quite remarkable what they can wring out of a camera image—while our eyes only see three primary colors, the current observation systems can see fifteen, spanning from deep into thermal infrared up to ultraviolet, and there are a lot of things that can be deduced by looking at each wavelength.

But still, most of it is inference, and that means guesswork. It's a lot better than it used to be, that's for sure, but I doubt that it will ever be anything near perfect.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2022, 05:54:20 pm »
Quote from: jmyrlefuller on September 22, 2022, 05:49:10 pm
That I'm assuming is a radar device. Radar is strictly an observation system; it has no predictive power.

Forecast models (i.e., computers) are what do the prediction. Radar can provide a lot of valuable input to models, but they're limited to line of sight, meaning once you get past about 150 miles into the Gulf of Mexico, they're not going to provide anything meaningful. Same goes for surface observations: there are a few buoys out there, but much more sparse than over land.

The vast majority of observation data that goes into these models comes from satellite observations. It's quite remarkable what they can wring out of a camera image—while our eyes only see three primary colors, the current observation systems can see fifteen, spanning from deep into thermal infrared up to ultraviolet, and there are a lot of things that can be deduced by looking at each wavelength.

But still, most of it is inference, and that means guesswork. It's a lot better than it used to be, that's for sure, but I doubt that it will ever be anything near perfect.

Yes it is a radar device and I also spelled doppler incorrectly.  Thanks for the info @jmyrlefuller
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2022, 06:27:36 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on September 22, 2022, 05:54:20 pm
Yes it is a radar device and I also spelled doppler incorrectly.  Thanks for the info @jmyrlefuller

Haven't pulled up the latest model runs, but that system better move a little further north if it wants to develop. Half of its convection is still residing inland on Venezuelan  coastal land.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2022, 06:28:25 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2022, 08:02:52 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 22, 2022, 06:27:36 pm
Haven't pulled up the latest model runs, but that system better move a little further north if it wants to develop. Half of its convection is still residing inland on Venezuelan  coastal land.

I would be just fine if the system doesn't develop.  I definitely don't want to dodge a hurricane right now and some of the spaghetti models have it heading our way and some of the forecasters are predicting a Cat 4.

Local weather is saying once it moves past Jamaica they will be able to forecast a cone and we will know by Saturday with good certainty if it's headed our way.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2022, 08:20:10 pm by libertybele »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2022, 08:05:37 pm »
It's wobbled a little bit to the north.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
low pressure system located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
about 150 miles east-northeast of Curacao.  The upper-level wind
environment over the low is expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely to affect northwestern Venezuela, the ABC island
chain, and northeastern Colombia through Friday.  Interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress
of this system.

« Last Edit: September 22, 2022, 08:07:16 pm by libertybele »
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Online Wingnut

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2022, 08:08:14 pm »
Yawn.   Too early to GAF. 
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Offline Idiot

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2022, 08:10:01 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on September 21, 2022, 03:57:22 pm
It's out a ways, but by the looks of the project track on the map, hurricane coming up that side of the Gulf are never a good sign for around me. 


A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.

A developing tropical system could spin up into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, forecasters warned Wednesday.

"This is the most significant threat for the U.S. mainland we've had this hurricane season," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

The system, known now as Invest 98L, was located near the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday.

An "Invest" is an area that the National Hurricane Center is watching closely with advanced computer models and other resources, including the Hurricane Hunters, for possible development, according to Weather.com.



https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-gulf-mexico-next-week-173738962.html
Come on baby...right towards West Texas and plan on staying a while.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2022, 08:22:03 pm »
Quote from: mrpotatohead on September 22, 2022, 08:10:01 pm
Come on baby...right towards West Texas and plan on staying a while.

I haven't heard any of the forecasters saying that it could hit TX.  More likely FL they just don't know where on the FL Gulfcoast it will make landfall.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2022, 08:24:28 pm »
Quote from: Wingnut on September 22, 2022, 08:08:14 pm
Yawn.   Too early to GAF.

We only have one way north out of here, so if it is headed our way, we will have to evacuate early, especially with all the people that are in the area now. 

I don't think the panhandle has to worry at all.

Yes.  This one has me worried -- hurricane Charley all over again.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2022, 08:25:28 pm by libertybele »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2022, 01:12:01 am »
Seeing some pretty decent tightening of model data for this early.  Good clustering around western Cuban, and then a NNW/N toward the wester FL Coast or Eastern FL panhandle.

Models also have to some certain clustering agreement of Cat 3 strength at the 96-120 hour point from now.

In just the last few hours there has a big flare up precipitation with a definite spin.  I am guessing this thing is about to get its act together.  If this trend continues, I expct a depression to form tomorrow.







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