27 August 2021 Hurricane Ida advisory update...
Distinctive eye has formed in proxmity and interaction of the land of Cuba. Large field of convection around eye about 125 miles in diameter has enmassed around eye. This is my first look at the storm since about 5pm my time, and I can tell you, I am jaw-dropped in that these do not look like the same storms. Full thermal outflow at 3 quadrants. Yes, Ida is intensifying rapidly it appears.
Cone has narrowed as expected as we get closer to landfall, and seems to have moved very slightly eastward. Exact path seems to be aimed at right at Morgan City, Louisana, with cone itself stretching from White Lake eastward to Mouth of the Mississippi.
Outside a dying ULL just off shore of LA right now, the path looks clear of sheer. Bathwater temps of near 90 F only add to the NHC expectation that this will be a Cat 4 storm, and potentially the rare Cat 5. Now that it has been established that all the path environmental conditions are set for this to be a monster, now the big question is where wlll it go. It's fate and direction (90%) will hinge on the strength of the high pressure centered in the Carolinas. How strong it ridges will dictate who feels the brunt. If the high builds further, Lafayette will be the more likely target. If it retracts?..... We are looking at a more likely scenario of towards Gulfport, MS.
One last observation of sat data the past 5 minutes that may or may not be of consequence..... Eye collapsed, and quickly appeared to reform about 20-30 miles due north of prior position. Not 100% sure I am reading this exactly right, but if it truly is a true northward wobble of the COC, I can see an eastward shift in the next advisory.
One last tool, I am using, and want to share with Cane Watching Junkies. In my last updates i mentioned Lat/Long clicks. Easy to monitor this storm performance, is that just prior to a sharp northward turn 8-12 hours to landfall, the storm is forecasted to follow at true NW vector. Meaning between now and then, if the storm behaves with forecast, you should see the same Lat and Long increases per each advisory. Any deviation other way likely means that storm is deviated east/west of forecast.
As many have stated before, if you are in harms way in the cone, get the hell out. I have ridden out Cat 3 storms, and had wished I hadn't. Don't want to even guess what a Cat 4/5 would be like.