Author Topic: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates (Read 9263 times)

catfish1957 · « **on:** August 25, 2021, 05:29:25 am »

There are three areas out in the Atlantic Basin that are being monitored for storm development

97L- Has good chance of development of a substantial storm, but will only impact mid and North Atlantic. could potentially impact Bermuda
98L- Also a mid Atlantic storm that isn't expected. What these guys call Fish Storms.
99L- Area that we along the Gulf Coast might be needing to monitor, especially next week.

1st the Model information. This area and 97L (IMO due to time of year and climatoglical history) both will likely become Ida and Julian, Who gets named first depends on which reaches Tropical Storm Strength first. (39 mph susatained winds)

Even though these early model runs show a tendency of focus on Lousiana coast. Absolutely do not put any faith in that. The entire U.S Gulf Coast should be monitoring 99l for its path and strengthening.

Model data on intensity.... This is one that worries me most early on here. I have found that the HWFI, if I had to pick is the most accuate of these. OTOH, 6 of the other 7 have strength at tropical storm or Cat 1 strength. HWFI is the outlier, but it has predicted other storms well. All the models have a landfall pretty well clustered on or about 132 hours from now

catfish1957 · « **Reply #1 on:** August 25, 2021, 07:59:22 am »

8AM NHC Update....
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the
south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional
development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #2 on:** August 25, 2021, 04:56:37 pm »

Wednesday afternoon update points....

(1) Seems the models are becoming more consitent at pointing this thing toward the western Gulf (>90W Longitude). A few outliers though, with scatter generally from a point eastward from Palacios to the Mouth of the Mississippi. In most cases a 990 mb T.S. to a 960 mb Cat 1 hurricane

(2) Good news on how the models are handling the strenghening. About half at Cat 1, half at T.S.

(3) Last 8 hours shows some better organization. I think this thing gets named within 24 hours.

(4) Entire gulf should still monitor progress of this storm, maybe into early next week.

libertybele · « **Reply #3 on:** August 25, 2021, 05:00:15 pm »

Louisiana, Mississippi??

catfish1957 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 25, 2021, 05:08:07 pm »

Quote from: libertybele on August 25, 2021, 05:00:15 pm

Louisiana, Mississippi??

For certain, likely somewhere along the gulf coast, considering met maps, (lows, highs, troughs, steering)

Based on this exact moment's model data? Somewhere between Palacios, TX and NOLA. As a T.S or Cat 1 storm.

But also realize these models in these early runs are real squirrelly. Conceivably they could all be aiming for Miami as a Cat 5 by tomorrow.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #5 on:** August 26, 2021, 05:53:54 am »

Thursday Morning Update on Invest 99L

(1) Seems there is a lot more convection this morning with the system, but also seems more elongated to the north and west. IR, Visible, and water loops all show some circulation, but I for one, can't find a COC (Center of circulation) defined enough to truly believe that a depression has formed. Understand the Hurricane HUnters will be investigating later today. In any case 4AM has passed, and the NHC still has this as a wave.

(2) Model Data on storm direction. Pretty strong and consitient this far out and early. Outside 2 CLP outliers, the models have target in a about a 180 mile stretch from McFaddin Beach Texas (near Port Arthur) to the Louisiana/ Mississippi Border only 5days out.

(3) As far as strength at landfall, 11 of the 13 models have the storm at T.S or Cat 1. But again, the often reliable HWFI shows it potentially reaching Cat 4. All seeming and peaking at about the 96 hour point.

(4) Looking at the Gulf, water temps are very conducive (mostly upper '80's) development. Sheer and circulation patterns in the gulf are pretty tame right now too, so I don't see sheer as much of a factor if the storm gets organized. Continental High Pressure has also eased, so I don't think there is much from keeping this storm from turning north, like Grace last week.

(5) At least at this very moment, with pretty strong model agreement, IMO interests in Western Gulf, say from about Corpus Christi to Pensacola FL should keep on top of this potential storm. And a disclaimer.... Predicting hurricanes is perilous, and can have huge errors in estmating future location and strength. We had an example last week. Last Friday night, almost all agencies expected Hurricane Grace to reach the Mexican coast. But the storm rapidly strenghthedn overnight into a near Cat 4 storm, and slammed the Mexican beach near Vera Cruz with sustained 125 mph winds.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #6 on:** August 26, 2021, 07:41:06 am »

Seeing good reports from Mets that the two model groups that the two model groups Euro and GFS are coming into closer agreement. Biggest questions is around storm initialization.

Right now the we are seeing somewhat of an unexpected drift north of the cluster of convection. Where the storm forms exactly will have great impact where it lands. A continual drift north I am thinking puts SE LA to FL more in play. If forms soon, and drifts more westward, I expect SE TX and SW LA more in play.

At this exact moment, both models are close on the choice being the central to SE LA coast.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #7 on:** August 26, 2021, 08:09:31 am »

7 AM Update from the NHC. IMO- Still not really seeing what I would call a strong center of circulation in an area maybe a 100 miles south of Jamaica. Overall convection movement does still seem to have more a north than westward vector. There is a lot of debate right now around how strong and how influential the High over SC is right now. It will likely be the biggest influence on the overall dircection of the storm.

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Corrected 5-day formation probability for the second system

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
west-central Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south-southwest of
Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching the
Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel
Friday and Friday night. Given the recent developmental trends,
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba
could be required later this morning, and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
and flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba
and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern
U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm
surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas,
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday
and Monday. However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and
intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 26, 2021, 11:07:21 am »

NHC has announced that 99L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression No. 9, and will very likely Ida later today. MIght be jumping hte gun a few hours, but have adjusted the thread to reflect Storm name.

Here are the graphics and forecasts from the NHC..

WTNT24 KNHC 261444
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.
Z

catfish1957 · « **Reply #9 on:** August 26, 2021, 02:14:11 pm »

The 1pm CDT advisory is out. No change in windspeed (35mph). Storm has moved from 16.9 N 79.2 W to 17.5 N 79.5 W. I do not believe that the storm is moving that dramatically NNW, but I am still thinking future Ida is still getting its footing on initialization before resuming on its expected WNW/NW track.

There is one point that makes this COC relocation important though. When this point is added to the models, I think it will possibly result in an eastward shift of the cone of uncertainty. Obviously, our FL Briefers are aware that these projected paths can change.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

catfish1957 · « **Reply #10 on:** August 26, 2021, 05:07:28 pm »

4PM Thursday NHC Advisory for TD 9/ Future Ida.....

As I mentioned that this initiaization of a more NNW vector has overall impacted the place of cone. Supposed storm center is still per report moving more NNW than NW. This IMO has resulted in the shift eastward of the Cone. Landfall now is expected near Houma Sunday afternoon, with the cone reaching from TX/LA border to MS/AL border. This is about a 50-80 mile shift. Expected strength has not changed... 105 mph at landfall, a strong Cat 2.

Not that I am a beleiver of model trends, but if we keep seeing this more NNW-ward move, I fully expect to see the FL panhandle included in the Cone of upcoming advisories.

Models- (See 1st post..it autoupdates) have really tightened up around a SE La. landfall, with a few outliers toward MS/AL

catfish1957 · « **Reply #11 on:** August 26, 2021, 06:32:16 pm »

Hurricane Hunters have found 40 mph winds in the circulation. As of 5 pm the NHC has offically upgraded TD 9 to Tropical Storm Ida.

AllThatJazzZ · « **Reply #12 on:** August 27, 2021, 01:58:01 am »

Quote from: catfish1957 on August 26, 2021, 05:07:28 pm

@catfish1957

I really appreciate this map. Looks like we're going to luck out on this one.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #13 on:** August 27, 2021, 02:11:18 am »

Quote from: AllThatJazzZ on August 27, 2021, 01:58:01 am

@catfish1957

I really appreciate this map. Looks like we're going to luck out on this one.

Outside the cone at this point too, (barely). OTOH, seems the poor folks in La., just can't seem to buy a break.

Not much more to report on 10 pm advisory, except Hurricane Watches have been posted from Cameron, La to MS/AL border, and Tropical Storm watch from AL/MS border to AL/FL border

catfish1957 · « **Reply #14 on:** August 27, 2021, 08:53:32 am »

Friday, August 27 7:00 am update....

My sat links aren't working (maybe high traffic), so I am not getting a read on the IR, Visible, and Water Loops to give my trend thoughts.

What I can tell you is that Ida has strengthed and now is a mid level Tropical Storm with 60 mph sustained winds, The storm does seem to be following the expected NW coast. This 315 degreeish (NW) vector is expected to continue (at this moment) until the storm approaches the coast, which then will start to veer north, then NNE within a few hundred miles after landfall. The point of the most recent updates, is that now Ida is expected to reach Major Hurricane status with 115 mph winds just south of around Houma/Morgan City.

The overall path and watches has not changed much since last night. With Hurricane Watches from Cameron, LA to the MS/AL border, and Tropical Storm Watches from MS/AL border to AL/FL border. As far as time, NHC sees the the eye reaching the LA coast sometimes late afternoon Sunday, with conditions detiorating late Saturday Night, or Sunday morning.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #15 on:** August 27, 2021, 11:24:15 am »

10 a.m. update. Since NHC graphics autorefreshes, please look at previous NHC graphic for path/warnings.

Finally got to my satelitte loops and Ida is really looking stronger. In fact I could find some minor evidence of spiraling band in the NW quadrant of the COC. Overall concentrated convection field has doubled in size in the past 10-12 hours Sustained winds are at 65 mph and very likely strenghtening as it approaches the SW coast of Cuba. Cone itself has not moved in over 12 hours. Just shows how well the models are handling this storm thus far. And pretty much all of them run from about Pecan Island to the MS coast.

IMO... Everyone from SE Texas to FL panhandle should keep a close eye on the storm. Those in the cone should be rushing to completion their hurricane preparations. This is now forecasted at 120 mph at landfall, and that windspeed could increase. There is pretty much 90 degree bathwater throughout the northern GOM.

mystery-ak · « **Reply #16 on:** August 27, 2021, 01:05:15 pm »

Governor Of Louisiana Declares State Of Emergency As Tropical Storm Ida Intensifies

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Ida makes its way toward the Gulf coast.

The storm, which has triggered hurricane watches in parts of the state, is gaining strength and could make landfall as soon as Sunday, the governor said in a press release.

“Unfortunately, all of Louisiana’s coastline is currently in the forecast cone for Tropical Storm Ida, which is strengthening and could come ashore in Louisiana as a major hurricane as Gulf conditions are conducive for rapid intensification,” Edwards said.

“Now is the time for people to finalize their emergency game plan, which should take into account the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” he added.

more
https://dailycaller.com/2021/08/27/governor-louisiana-state-of-emergency-tropical-storm-ida/

mystery-ak · « **Reply #17 on:** August 27, 2021, 02:34:10 pm »

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431320221256671238

mystery-ak · « **Reply #18 on:** August 27, 2021, 03:39:36 pm »

https://twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1431332053165948935

Kamaji · « **Reply #19 on:** August 27, 2021, 03:45:01 pm »

Wow. I hope everyone in the path of that thing takes precautions. God bless.

dfwgator · « **Reply #20 on:** August 27, 2021, 03:48:14 pm »

And knowing this Administration, folks in the Gulf better pretty much assume, they are on their own.

rustynail · « **Reply #21 on:** August 27, 2021, 04:07:51 pm »

The Trump flood of 21.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #22 on:** August 27, 2021, 04:25:13 pm »

Ida now a hurricane, and is approaching Cuba at quicker forward speed.

Am seeing some models trending westward. NHC I think has compensated and adjust landfall from Houma to to near Pecan Island in most recent forecast updates.

To my fellow SE Texans, I don't think we are 100% out of the woods yet. Last year the Bermuda high was understated, and we starting seeing the Laura's path trend westward, and before we knew it in about 36 hours the path had changed from near NOLA to SW Louisiana.

Really critical will be how and where Ida gets spit out after interacting with Cuba. I personally am parsing lat/long clicks to think about where it is going, and adjusting incrementally Depending on that interaction, Ida may come out ragged enough that center may need reinitalization. Based on my looking at Sat data, finding a COC is getting a little tough based on the storms interaction with land nearby.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #23 on:** August 27, 2021, 04:50:14 pm »

Thursday August 27th NHC update.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

Previous Watches have been been upgraded to Warnings.

mystery-ak · « **Reply #24 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:04:52 pm »

BNO News
@BNONews
·
31s
BREAKING: Ida forecast to reach Louisiana as a major category 4 hurricane - NHC

libertybele · « **Reply #25 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:16:33 pm »

Oh no! Louisiana's got a monster coming at her! I hope people are able to evacuate. A Cat 4 packs a powerful punch -- with LA there's always the concern of major storm surge as well.

Hurricane Ida's strength forces mandatory evacuations in Louisiana as Biden declares state of emergency

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-idas-strength-forces-mandatory-evacuations-in-louisiana

catfish1957 · « **Reply #26 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:16:52 pm »

Quote from: mystery-ak on August 27, 2021, 05:04:52 pm

BNO News
@BNONews
·
31s
BREAKING: Ida forecast to reach Louisiana as a major category 4 hurricane - NHC

Sure hope authorites are rushing to completion evacuation of lower parishes near the coast.

libertybele · « **Reply #27 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:28:24 pm »

Quote from: catfish1957 on August 27, 2021, 05:16:52 pm

Sure hope authorites are rushing to completion evacuation of lower parishes near the coast.

Looks like MS and AL are going to be impacted as well. Looks like the FL panhandle may see TS winds and rain.

Kamaji · « **Reply #28 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:29:26 pm »

Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

mystery-ak · « **Reply #29 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:29:38 pm »

https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1431364380587921410

mystery-ak · « **Reply #30 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:30:56 pm »

Quote from: Kamaji on August 27, 2021, 05:29:26 pm

Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

Haven't they fixed those levees yet!

libertybele · « **Reply #31 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:32:36 pm »

Quote from: Kamaji on August 27, 2021, 05:29:26 pm

Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

A Cat 4. Absolutely! I'm hoping that it doesn't intensify as much as they think that it's going too.

Wingnut · « **Reply #32 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:39:24 pm »

Quote from: mystery-ak on August 27, 2021, 05:30:56 pm

Haven't they fixed those levees yet!

Those were "shovel ready jobs" Oh well.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #33 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:56:12 pm »

Quote from: Kamaji on August 27, 2021, 05:29:26 pm

Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

From my experience this does have the potential to be a Cat 5. There may be more significant more storm surge than either Katrina or Laura.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #34 on:** August 27, 2021, 05:57:27 pm »

Live feed has 5 parishes now with mandatory evacuation in Louisiana. Didn't catch the names though.

Right_in_Virginia · « **Reply #35 on:** August 27, 2021, 06:41:24 pm »

https://mobile.twitter.com/newsmax/status/1431349058036109315

Right_in_Virginia · « **Reply #36 on:** August 27, 2021, 09:49:33 pm »

https://rumble.com/embed/vj5oom/?pub=4

libertybele · « **Reply #37 on:** August 27, 2021, 09:55:58 pm »

Quote from: Right_in_Virginia on August 27, 2021, 09:49:33 pm

https://rumble.com/embed/vj5oom/?pub=4

Stupidity!!

Right_in_Virginia · « **Reply #38 on:** August 27, 2021, 10:02:19 pm »

Ida slams Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane but when it makes landfall in the US it's expected to be Category 4
By Jason Hanna, Paul P. Murphy and Melissa Alonso, CNN
Updated 8:15 PM ET, Fri August 27, 2021

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/27/weather/tropical-storm-ida-friday/index.html

Right_in_Virginia · « **Reply #39 on:** August 27, 2021, 10:03:59 pm »

dfwgator · « **Reply #40 on:** August 27, 2021, 10:22:33 pm »

Quote from: Right_in_Virginia on August 27, 2021, 09:49:33 pm

https://rumble.com/embed/vj5oom/?pub=4

May I suggest to the Mayor to use school busses?

mystery-ak · « **Reply #41 on:** August 27, 2021, 10:35:48 pm »

https://twitter.com/Jay_WAFB/status/1431372505734914050

Wingnut · « **Reply #42 on:** August 27, 2021, 10:38:12 pm »

The Dome is always a home away from home.

corbe · « **Reply #43 on:** August 27, 2021, 11:25:17 pm »

Nawlins, If I'm not mistaken has 5 pumps to keep the citizens from learning how to swim, quickly and I guauntee you that 4 are broken and the ONE is intermittent.

Time to call the General out of retirement.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #44 on:** August 27, 2021, 11:51:11 pm »

27 August 2021 Hurricane Ida advisory update...

Distinctive eye has formed in proxmity and interaction of the land of Cuba. Large field of convection around eye about 125 miles in diameter has enmassed around eye. This is my first look at the storm since about 5pm my time, and I can tell you, I am jaw-dropped in that these do not look like the same storms. Full thermal outflow at 3 quadrants. Yes, Ida is intensifying rapidly it appears.

Cone has narrowed as expected as we get closer to landfall, and seems to have moved very slightly eastward. Exact path seems to be aimed at right at Morgan City, Louisana, with cone itself stretching from White Lake eastward to Mouth of the Mississippi.

Outside a dying ULL just off shore of LA right now, the path looks clear of sheer. Bathwater temps of near 90 F only add to the NHC expectation that this will be a Cat 4 storm, and potentially the rare Cat 5. Now that it has been established that all the path environmental conditions are set for this to be a monster, now the big question is where wlll it go. It's fate and direction (90%) will hinge on the strength of the high pressure centered in the Carolinas. How strong it ridges will dictate who feels the brunt. If the high builds further, Lafayette will be the more likely target. If it retracts?..... We are looking at a more likely scenario of towards Gulfport, MS.

One last observation of sat data the past 5 minutes that may or may not be of consequence..... Eye collapsed, and quickly appeared to reform about 20-30 miles due north of prior position. Not 100% sure I am reading this exactly right, but if it truly is a true northward wobble of the COC, I can see an eastward shift in the next advisory.

One last tool, I am using, and want to share with Cane Watching Junkies. In my last updates i mentioned Lat/Long clicks. Easy to monitor this storm performance, is that just prior to a sharp northward turn 8-12 hours to landfall, the storm is forecasted to follow at true NW vector. Meaning between now and then, if the storm behaves with forecast, you should see the same Lat and Long increases per each advisory. Any deviation other way likely means that storm is deviated east/west of forecast.

As many have stated before, if you are in harms way in the cone, get the hell out. I have ridden out Cat 3 storms, and had wished I hadn't. Don't want to even guess what a Cat 4/5 would be like.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #45 on:** August 28, 2021, 06:31:15 am »

28 Aug 2021 4 AM update..

Storm hasn't really seemed to ramp up that much in the past 4 hours, but has separated itself from Cuba, and has resumed a pretty true NW track for now. The NHC states that Ida is moving NW at 16 mph and has still sustained winds of 80 MPH. If the track has moved it is minimal, with Morgan City being shown as target. Cone of Uncertainty has been placed between Vermillion bay to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. There doesn' appear to be any changes in previously reported watches or warnings.

Seems to be a tad less banding on the NW/SW quadrants , while having at the same time strongest convection . One positive observation though, is that (though subject to change) the storm does npt particularly look very large yet, tropical storm winds do not extend more than 100 miles in any quadrant.

Needless to say, preparations should be pretty much be over in warned area.. There are parts of SE Louisana that may start to see conditons detiorate very late tonight, or early tommorrow morning.

mountaineer · « **Reply #46 on:** August 28, 2021, 08:14:16 am »

Quote

Aug 28 (Reuters) - Hurricane Ida churned toward the U.S. Gulf coast on Saturday, forecast to gather strength in coming hours and prompting evacuations of flood-prone New Orleans neighborhoods and oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters said it could make U.S. landfall as a dangerous Category 4 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, generating winds nearing 140 miles per hour (225 kph), heavy downpours and a tidal surge that could plunge much of the Louisiana shoreline under several feet of water.

Ida battered Cuba on Friday and by early Saturday it was carrying top winds of around 80 mph (129 kph) as it headed northwest, the National Hurricane Center said. The NHC expected the storm to intensify rapidly before coming ashore by late Sunday. ...

Full story at Reuters

On Friday, news outlets reported that the New Orleans mayor said there was no time to evacuate. They've known about this storm for days. What the heck.

https://twitter.com/FOX8NOLA/status/1431568786390495232

mountaineer · « **Reply #47 on:** August 28, 2021, 08:22:58 am »

https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1431592292578729984

catfish1957 · « **Reply #48 on:** August 28, 2021, 08:42:32 am »

7AM update...

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

===========================================================

Like I mentioned before we are are the point where you basically have to count N's and W's, versus what is expected on NHC track. In the past 3 hours, the storm center clicked .4 increments North Lat, and .5 West long. Since the path up to near landfall is pretty much true NW (315 degrees). Putting it simply more N's than W's favors Lake Charles, More W's than N's favors Mississsippi.

Still no distinictive open eye yet. I expect that the change as this thing ramps up later today. Infrared scan is showing sonce concentric banding, so that might be a precursor of some rapid strenghthening. One highlight I don't hear any mets discussing though, is about the ULL sititng off the south Louisiana coast. That thing was supposed to die, or start dying while moving west. Well that thing has about a 100 mile diameter area of convection right off the coast, and loops aren't showing it moving that awfully mucn west. If it persists, and I could envision storm path slightly shifting westward.

Within the next few hours, we should see the first actual impact on U.S. with some of the early feeder bands (according to vis radar) approaching the AL coast.

Gefn · « **Reply #49 on:** August 28, 2021, 08:42:42 am »

Just found this thread.

Heard New Orleans might get hit bad. I hope not.